适度宽松的货币政策

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降准新信号!央行,今日大动作!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 07:46
据中国人民银行(以下简称央行)官网消息,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年10月9日, 央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为3个月(91天)。 10月9日,中国人民银行还以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了6120亿元7天期逆回购操作,投标量6120亿元,中标量6120亿元,操作 利率1.40%,与此前持平。据Wind数据,当日逆回购到期量高达20633亿元。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 6120亿元 | 6120亿元 | 市场分析认为,此举旨在应对资金面收紧压力,稳定市场预期。综合来看,10月政府债券还会进行较大规模发行;9月29日,国家发 展改革委宣布,当前正在加快推进5000亿元新型政策性金融工具相关工作,预计接下来会较大幅度拉动配套贷款投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称,10月将有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期,由此央行10月9日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操 作,意味着10月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作3000亿元。此外,10月还有500 ...
央行再提“适度宽松”,节后会降息降准吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 09:20
每季度固定的央行货币政策定调来了。近日,中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会召开,强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"。 适度宽松如何理解?在此之前,美联储在9月18日宣布降息25个基点。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示,全球金融市场对美联储这次降息有充分预期,市场反 应相对平稳,中国货币政策坚持以我为主,兼顾内外均衡。 今年二季度,央行下调政策利率10个基点,进而引导1年期和5年期以上LPR同步下调10个基点,存款利率也相应调降。此外,将再贷款利率降至1.5%,并下 调存款准备金率50个基点。 在这一轮降息降准之后,目前尚无进一步动作。四季度,还有降息降准的空间吗? 图源:图虫创意 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪告诉时代周报记者,此次表述的细微差别,表明推进已出台政策的落实落细仍是重点。 "在结构性货币政策工具方面,主要延续7月政治局会议的表述,与上个季度例会相比,新增强调做好'小微企业、稳定外贸等'重点领域的融资支持,这是因 为美国的关税政策可能给中国出口带来一定冲击并在四季度有所显现,因此强调对小微企业、稳定外贸的融资支持有重要意义。"张迪说。 华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜则认为,货币政 ...
市场全天震荡攀升,三大指数集体上涨
Dongguan Securities· 2025-09-29 23:31
证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡攀升,三大指数集体上涨 市场表现: | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3862.53 | 0.90% | 34.43 | | | 深证成指 | 13479.43 | 2.05% | 270.43 | | | 沪深 300 | 4620.05 | 1.54% | 70.00 | | | 创业板 | 3238.01 | 2.74% | 86.48 | | | 科创 50 | 1470.41 | 1.35% | 19.59 | | | 北证 50 | 1539.47 | 0.69% | 10.50 | | 资料来源:东莞证券研究所,iFinD 数据 板块排名: | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 3.84% | 煤炭 ...
央行三季度货政例会:促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-09-29 14:43
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a proactive monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels, reflecting a more nuanced understanding of the current economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC's recent meeting indicates a shift from "maintaining" to "promoting" economic stability, highlighting a more active approach to monetary policy [1][2]. - The meeting introduced a new requirement to "ensure the effective implementation of various monetary policy measures," indicating a focus on the execution of existing tools [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The meeting reiterated the importance of structural monetary policy tools, particularly in supporting small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade [4]. - The emphasis on financing support for key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, and small businesses is crucial, especially in light of potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation for the fourth quarter is to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy stance, with decisions on rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio adjustments to be based on comprehensive assessments of economic performance and external conditions [4].
央行建议下阶段抓好各项货币政策措施执行
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-29 14:03
赵诣指出,第三季度例会表述和第二季度例会表述整体变化不大,国内经济层面强调稳中有进,并认可 高质量发展新成效。 货币政策层面,第三季度例会指出,要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。第二季度相应部分表述为,要实 施好适度宽松的货币政策。 此外,将"保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"修正为"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"。赵 诣指出,这体现了对政策落地生效进度的关注。 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度(总第110次)例会于日前召开。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路,建议加强货币政策调控,提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性,根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况,把握好政策实施的力度和节奏,抓好各项货币政策措施执行, 充分释放政策效应。 相较第二季度例会内容,最新例会新增"抓好各项货币政策措施执行,充分释放政策效应"。中信证券固 定收益分析师赵诣最新解读,这更多体现了对现有存量工具使用的关注,后续央行或更多关注存量工具 的使用情况。 "充分释放政策效应" 维护金融市场稳定发展 第三季度例会指出,要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用,推动中小银行聚焦主责主业, 增强银行资本实力,共同维护金融市场的 ...
中国在世贸组织谈判中不寻求新特殊和差别待遇;央行:金融体制改革进一步深化|每周金融评论(2025.9.22-2025.9.28)
清华金融评论· 2025-09-29 11:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's commitment to global development and financial reforms, emphasizing the importance of creating a stable international environment and enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including finance and investment [5][6]. Group 1: Major Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) jointly issued an announcement to further support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions [9]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity in the market [10]. - In August, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 24.08 trillion yuan (approximately 3.38 trillion USD) [12]. - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China surged by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant rebound compared to a decline of 1.5% in the previous month [12][14]. Group 2: Financial System Reform - The PBOC's Governor highlighted the deepening of financial system reforms, which have positively impacted market confidence and stability, optimized resource allocation, and enhanced international competitiveness [7]. - The PBOC's recent meeting indicated a shift in monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "enforcement," reflecting a stronger commitment to economic stability and reasonable price levels [11]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is working to enhance the synergy between industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to stimulate private investment and promote economic growth [8]. - The article notes that private investment is a crucial indicator of economic activity and has been supported by the government through improved business environments and opportunities for private enterprises [8].
A50拉升,牛市旗手大爆发,外资密集看多A股
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-29 07:43
Market Performance - On September 29, A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 2.74% [1][2] - The total trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan, with over 3,500 stocks advancing [1][2] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage firms, saw substantial gains, with stocks like GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guosheng Financial hitting the daily limit [4][5] - The gold and precious metals sector also surged, with international gold prices reaching a new high of over $3,815 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 45% [8][10] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have shown a bullish stance, with significant inflows into products tracking Chinese stocks and bonds, amounting to $1 billion by the end of August [7] - Over 90% of clients expressed interest in increasing exposure to Chinese markets during recent roadshows, indicating a strong recovery in foreign interest [7] Regulatory and Industry Developments - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support financial institutions in increasing credit supply, which is expected to stabilize the capital market [6] - The brokerage industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with several merger proposals in progress, potentially increasing the concentration of leading firms [6] Gold Market Insights - The rise in gold prices is attributed to lower opportunity costs due to interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, alongside heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [10]
A50拉升,牛市旗手大爆发,外资密集看多A股
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-29 07:38
记者 | 李益文 毕凤至 编辑 | 叶映橙 金珊 9月29日, A股三大指数震荡拉升 , 截至收盘,沪指涨0.90%,深成指涨2.05%,创业板指涨2.74%。 成交额总计2.18万亿,超3500只个股上 涨。板块方面,券商、贵金属、固态电池等涨幅居前,教育、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。 "牛市旗手"大爆发 外资用"真金白银"表达看多立场 29日午后,以券商为首的金融股 突然加速上攻。 其中, 广发证券、 华泰证券、 国盛金控 涨停, 湘财股份、东方证券、东吴证券等纷纷走 强。 证券相关ETF亦表现不俗,其中证券ETF(159841)盘中涨幅一度高达7.14%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅÷ | | --- | --- | --- | | 广发证券 | 22.95 | 10.02% | | 000776.SZ | | | | 华泰证券 | 21.77 | 10.01% | | 601688.SH | | | | 国盛金控 | 22.13 | 9.99% | | 002670.SZ | | | | 湘财股份 | 13.56 | 6.94% | | 600095.SH | | | | 东方证券 | 11.46 | 6 ...
一周流动性观察 | 央行维持呵护投放 跨季窗口下资金利率跳升的概率不大
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 07:22
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Last week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing suggests that liquidity fluctuations will likely be limited [2] - Analysts expect that the funding environment will likely return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels typically seen at quarter-end [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee recently shifted its focus from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "refining the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The new policy direction includes support for small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade, while maintaining support for technology innovation and consumption [3] - Although there was no mention of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, the monetary policy stance remains "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter [3] Group 4 - Analysts predict that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to focus on capital replenishment [4]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250929
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:27
-2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅(%) 非金属建材, 2.73% 早盘速递 2025/9/29 热点资讯 1. 国家能源局发布1-8月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至8月底,全国累计发电装机容量36.9亿千瓦,同比增长18%。其 中,太阳能发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦,同比增长48.5%;风电装机容量5.8亿千瓦,同比增长22.1%。1-8月份,全国发电设 备累计平均利用2105小时,比上年同期降低223小时。 2. 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度(总第110次)例会于9月23日召开。会议提到,要落实落细适度宽松的 货币政策,加强逆周期调节,更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能,加大货币财政政策协同配合,促进经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平。 3. 美国8月个人支出增幅超出预期,同时潜在通胀压力保持稳定,显示出消费者的韧性。根据公布的数据,经通胀调整的 消费者支出连续第二个月增长0.4%。美联储偏好的核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%,同比仍顽固地维持在2.9%。消费者支 出的连续强劲增长进一步显示出本季度经济稳健,这将 ...