2025 年 8 月 热点点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望，2025 年 8 月 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂，降准降 息可期利率难改下行趋势，2025 年 7 月 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号 2025 年 8 月 15 日，央行发布《2025 年第二季度中国货币政策执 行报告》（以下简称"《报告》"），认为国民经济运行稳中有进， 主要经济指标表现良好，但依然面临不少风险挑战，包括"当前外部 环境更趋复杂严峻、贸易壁垒增多""国内有效需求不足"等，在此 背 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘或平开或小幅高开，早盘幅震荡下行，午后则转为上攻、 然后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 上涨 0.24%，10 年期 | | | | | T2512 上涨 0.08%，5 年期 TF2512 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2512 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 3799 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 6160 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期和 3000 亿元 MLF 到期，因此当日合计净回笼 2361 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日持平，DR001 全天加权平 | | | | | 均为 1.31%，上一交易日加权平均 1.31%；DR007 全天加权平均为 ...

中国人民银行近期发布的《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示，上半年货币政策逆周期调节 效果较为明显，金融总量平稳增长，社会融资成本处于低位，信贷结构不断优化。《报告》在明确下阶 段货币政策主要思路时提到，要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运 行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增 长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环境。 温彬分析，从总基调上看，《报告》保留"适度宽松"表述，意味着下半年为稳信用、促内需、强协同， 货币政策仍将保持支持性立场，但更强调"落实落细存量政策"，以推动现有政策落地显效为主。考虑到 近期财政贴息政策有效降低实体融资成本，结构性政策更能精准发力、避免资金空转，以及存款加速活 化、物价温和回升的趋势，短期内加码宽松的必要性不高。 "政策举措从中央银行到金融体系再到实体经济，传导效果是会持续的，已实施政策的成效会进一步显 现。下一步，实施好适度宽松的货币政策，关键还是要抓好落实，对前期政策的传导情况和实际效果要 密切跟踪，保持连续性，增强灵活性，充分释放政策效应。"娄飞鹏说，巩固拓展经济回 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-26 美联储转鸽，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-25，央行以 ...

【市场表现】 国债期货收盘全线大幅上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.78%，10年期主力合约涨0.27%，5年期主力合约涨 0.15%，2年期主力合约涨0.10%。银行间主要利率债收益率普遍明显下行，长券表现好于短券。截至发 稿，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行4bp，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行2.85bp，10 年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行2.2bp。 【资金面】 【操作建议】 昨日债市情绪有所修复，长端利率下行幅度高于短端，曲线有所走平。目前观察短期10年期国债利率在 1.78%-1.8%%附近可能是阶段利率上行的阻力位，对应T2512合约在107.4-107.6附近有支撑。考虑到股 市持续走强，债市行情不排除有反复，关注关键点位是否有突破迹象，以及情绪能否继续企稳，考虑到 长债受风险偏好影响更大，如果债市能够延续修复的话期限利差可能会继续适当压缩，反之如果仍有回 调那么期限利差可能仍小幅熊陡。单边策略上建议短期暂保持观望。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by cost and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The overall situation will still maintain a volatile state. Today, polysilicon showed an overall upward and then downward trend, maintaining a volatile state. It is expected that the future price center may further decline. The operation suggestion is to layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 51,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,380, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 [2] - The main position volume of polysilicon is 136,801 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,596; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 235 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The basis of polysilicon is - 2,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 175; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 110; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons [2] - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 57 tons [2] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,004,000 kilowatts; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 28.48, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 [2] - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, with a month - on - month increase of 21,456,820 units [2] - The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, with a month - on - month increase of 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. This was mainly due to the improvement of operation efficiency, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation became the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy started a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output of polysilicon will increase in August. If the "production and sales restriction" is implemented in September, the monthly output may be flat compared with the previous month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up bases in the southwest are at full production, and although some enterprises in the northwest are starting and stopping, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2] View Summary - The supply of polysilicon is increasing, while the demand is weakening. The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but the downstream is highly wait - and - see. The impact of weak terminal demand is gradually emerging. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain have been raised, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed, and the terminal transaction pressure is relatively large, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to a certain extent [2] Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

策略研究 / 2025.08.22 | 每周海内外重要政策跟踪(25/08/22) | d | 吴信坤(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | પ્ર | 021-23154147 | | | P | wuxinkun@gtht.com | | 本报告导读: | 登记编号 | S0880525040061 | | 覆盖国内宏观(中央及各部委政策及表态)、大类产业、地方政策、以及海外重要 政策和事件。 | ની | 刘颖(分析师) | | | પ | 021-23185665 | | 投资要点: | 2 | liuying 13@gtht.com | | Q 国内宏观:8月15日,《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《促 | 登记编号 | S0880525040124 | | | | | 风险偏好升温,全球延续涨势 2025.08.18 | | --- | | 内资与短线外资逆势加仓港股 2025.08.16 | | 为何港股近期偏弱 2025.08.16 | | 对港股热点研究问题的思考-20250815 2025.08.15 | | 每周海内外重要政策跟踪(25/08/15) | | ...

2025.08. 22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计 约15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支 出超出收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%） 明显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善 趋势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速 改善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于 税收收入和地方政府土地出让收入降幅的缩窄。 财政部数据显示，今年一季度全国税收收入同比下降3.5%，此后四个月税 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week due to increased supply and weakened demand. The price is likely to show a volatile trend, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The industrial silicon market will also maintain a volatile state as demand declines steadily while supply also drops. It is recommended to wait and see or arrange put options [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 149,610 lots, down 476 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,325 yuan, up 85 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,895 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -4,875 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons, and the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units, and the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2] Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. However, considering the resumption of production at some bases of three domestic leading enterprises and the release of some new production capacities in the second half of the year, if the resumption progress accelerates or new production capacities are released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be about 580 GW in 2025 and the domestic demand is about 1300,000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the rise of polysilicon prices. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream photovoltaic enterprises will hardly increase. With increased supply and weakened demand, the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is likely to fluctuate, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, and the supply is also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state [2] Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8635 | 245 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 283578 | 3710 -12 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -77137 | 14988 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50613 | | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -40 | -10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...