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华创证券:24国标重塑产业格局 电动两轮车龙头竞争优势强化
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 06:13
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that leading companies in the electric two-wheeler industry are expected to accelerate their market share growth due to the new national standards, suggesting a focus on industry leaders Yadea Holdings (01585) and Aima Technology (603529) [1] Group 1: Impact of New National Standards - The 2024 national standards will enhance safety technology specifications and production thresholds for companies, including requirements for self-manufacturing and testing capabilities for core components [1] - The industry concentration is anticipated to increase further, with the market share of leading companies (Yadea and Aima) rising from 30% in 2018 to 52% in 2021, and the new standards expected to accelerate the exit of smaller firms [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The domestic market is expected to grow steadily, with significant potential in overseas markets; if the household ownership rate reaches 100 units, the domestic market could expand to 71.85 million units, a 69% increase from 2024 [3] - Product functionality upgrades are driving an increase in average prices, with the average price on platforms like Tmall and JD.com rising by 70% and 26% respectively compared to 2019 [3] - Vertical integration in the supply chain is expected to reduce costs, with market channels increasingly concentrating on leading brands, which will enhance their competitive advantages [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The operational performance of leading companies is significantly better, with net profit margins for top brands around 9% in 2024, while second-tier brands struggle to exceed 3% [5] - Despite good cash flow, second-tier and smaller companies may see a decline in return on equity (ROE) over the long term, reducing their investment attractiveness [5] - The estimated market value potential for the domestic electric two-wheeler industry is around 115.5 billion yuan, with leading brands like Yadea and Aima having significant room for market capitalization growth [5]