Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened. It is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [1][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the weak economy and the possible continuous loosening of monetary policy, it is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically as the bond market rebounds [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low position. It is expected that the bond market will continue to rebound, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, 2025, the total ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years were 23.7802 trillion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. In terms of remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (October 12 - October 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 577 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase in the total issuance compared with the week before last. In terms of variety, 400 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 177 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued. In terms of term, 13 billion yuan with a term of 15 years, 504 billion yuan with a term of 20 years, and 61 billion yuan with a term of 30 years were issued [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra-long bonds was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra-long bonds increased by 833.9 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 0.3% [29][30]. - **Yield**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [37]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and 0BP compared with the week before last, at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume of 30-year Treasury bond futures was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the week before last [56].