中证报中证网讯(记者张舒琳)11月25日，兴华基金固收公募部基金经理吕智卓在中国证券报"中证点金 汇"直播间表示，临近年末，央行通常会维护债券市场稳定，预计会增加国债买入规模、加大公开市场 净投放向商业银行补充基础货币，因此债市大概率不会形成8月至9月的单边下跌行情，宽松的货币市场 环境利好中短久期利率债。长久期利率债依然存在交易价值，但考虑到年末机构降久期的诉求，预计长 债、超长债收益率形成单边下行行情的机率较小，会呈现区间震荡行情。整体来看，收益率曲线有望继 续走陡。对于信用债，考虑到四季度不是机构大幅度增持信用债的时点，预计信用利差不会出现明显压 缩。 在久期选择方面，吕智卓建议，底仓或可以配置中期国债、大行二级资本债，杠杆部分可介入长债、超 长债的波段交易，做好止盈止损。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 超长债周报 经济放缓，超长债横盘震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 10 月统计局数据显示经济增速继续放缓，通胀 小幅回升，另外金融数据增速全面回落，总体经济依然存在压力，债市 先扬后抑，超长债微涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降， 交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 16 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The probability of a bond market rebound is high. For 30 - year Treasury bonds, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound. For 20 - year CDB bonds, the variety spread is expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11][12] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the central bank announced 20 billion yuan of Treasury bond transactions in October. The A - share market reached 4000 points again, the bond market had a slight correction, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][4][10] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 7, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. With economic downward pressure increasing in September, Q3 GDP at 4.8% year - on - year (down 0.4% from Q2), and deflation risks existing (September CPI at - 0.3% and PPI at - 2.3%), the bond market is likely to rebound. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 7, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering the economic situation and central bank's actions, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 23.9 trillion yuan. As of October 31, the ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 23.9836 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was small. From November 3 to 7, 2025, 6.29 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant decrease compared with the previous week. By variety, Treasury bonds were 2 billion yuan, local government bonds were 4.14 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 0.86 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds were 2.01 billion yuan, etc. [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 13.22 billion yuan, including 2.7 billion yuan of ultra - long Treasury bonds, 10.42 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds, and 0.1 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0951 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.1% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds was 790.6 billion yuan, etc. [28] Yield - Last week, due to the central bank's announcement of Treasury bond transactions and the A - share market reaching 4000 points, the bond market had a slight correction and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year Treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 2BP, 2BP, and 3BP to 2.05%, 2.15%, 2.16%, and 2.23% respectively. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [34] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 34BP, down 1BP from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [41] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds was 15BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds was 17BP, with changes of 0BP and - 2BP respectively from the previous week, at the 12% percentile since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2512 of 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 115.95 yuan, a decrease of 0.63%. The total trading volume was 573,900 lots (down 104,798 lots), and the open interest was 180,600 lots (down 2,293 lots), with a significant decrease in trading volume and a slight decrease in open interest compared with the previous week [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active [1][3][10][37]. - The economic data shows downward pressure, and deflation risks still exist. It is expected that the bond market will rebound in October. The 30 - 10 spread and the 20 - year China Development Bank bond spread are expected to compress [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the export data in September was still strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom [1][10][37]. - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10][4]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and the upcoming release of Q3 economic data, it is expected that the bond market will rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread will compress [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically very low level. With the expected rebound of the bond market, the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.3%, and others accounted for relatively small proportions [13]. - The 30-year variety has the highest proportion. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 year (inclusive) variety accounted for 39.9%, the highest [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 57.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, mainly including 40 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 17.7 billion yuan of local government bonds [20]. - By maturity, 50.4 billion yuan had a 20-year maturity, 6.1 billion yuan a 30-year maturity, and 1.3 billion yuan a 15-year maturity [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume [29]. - By variety, ultra-long Treasury bonds had a trading volume of 894.9 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 156.5 billion yuan, ultra-long policy financial bonds 6.1 billion yuan, and ultra-long government agency bonds 6.7 billion yuan [30]. - Compared with the week before last, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the trading volume and proportion of most varieties changing to varying degrees [30]. Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different maturities changed to varying degrees [37]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond active bond 25 ultra-long special Treasury bond 02 decreased by 1.6BP to 2.068%, and the yield of the 20-year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 China Development Bank 20 decreased by 1.5BP to 2.175% [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [4][46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 respectively [4][52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots), both increasing significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened. It is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [1][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the weak economy and the possible continuous loosening of monetary policy, it is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically as the bond market rebounds [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low position. It is expected that the bond market will continue to rebound, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, 2025, the total ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years were 23.7802 trillion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. In terms of remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (October 12 - October 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 577 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase in the total issuance compared with the week before last. In terms of variety, 400 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 177 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued. In terms of term, 13 billion yuan with a term of 15 years, 504 billion yuan with a term of 20 years, and 61 billion yuan with a term of 30 years were issued [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra-long bonds was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra-long bonds increased by 833.9 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 0.3% [29][30]. - **Yield**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [37]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and 0BP compared with the week before last, at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume of 30-year Treasury bond futures was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Report Information - Report Title: [Ping An Securities] 2025 Interest Rate Bond Quarterly Report: Opportunities and Risks in the Bond Market under Multiple Challenges [1] - Release Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the Market (Expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [94] Core Views - The bond market entered a headwind period in Q3 due to multiple factors, with a bearish steepening of the yield curve, a decline in the inter - bank leverage ratio, a reduction in the duration of asset management accounts, and a certain demand maintained by allocation accounts [2]. - The necessity of stabilizing growth is increasing in Q4. Policy measures may include interest rate cuts of 10BP, reserve requirement ratio cuts of 25BP, restarting bond purchases, and fiscal stimulus leading to a year - on - year increase of over 1 trillion yuan in Q4 [3]. - There are trading opportunities for bonds with maturities within 10 years in Q4, while ultra - long bonds face repricing risks [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: Domestic Bond Yields Reach New Highs - **Multiple Negative Factors Lead to Q3 Bond Market Adjustment**: In June, "anti - involution" drove up commodity prices; in July, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points; in August - September, policy adjustments such as the readjustment of VAT on treasury bond interest and concerns about the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for public funds led to bond fund redemptions and rising interest rates [2][6]. - **Deviation from Fundamentals and Funds, Dominated by Sentiment and Institutional Behavior**: The adjustment deviated from fundamentals and funds, with stable funds and a marginal decline in fundamentals in July - August. Market sentiment and institutional behavior played a dominant role [8]. - **Market Leverage Declines, Asset Management Accounts Reduce Positions, Allocation Accounts Maintain Demand**: During the market adjustment, institutions tended to reduce leverage, asset management accounts reduced positions, and allocation accounts supported the market [11]. - **Performance of Different Bond Types**: Short - term treasury bonds were relatively resistant to decline due to large - bank purchases; credit bonds weakened as fund and wealth management demand declined; ultra - long bonds performed weakly, with increased supply exceeding demand from insurance and rural commercial banks. There was also a global resonance of rising ultra - long bond yields [2][17][19][26]. PART2: The Necessity of Stabilizing Growth Increases in Q4 - **Policy Support Needed to Achieve the Annual Growth Target**: To achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%, Q4 requires stronger stabilizing - growth policies than in 2022 - 2023 but weaker than in 2024. Without additional policies, government bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be about 1 trillion less year - on - year [3][46]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Tools**: Fiscal policy may involve policy - based development financial tools of about 500 billion yuan and the possible early issuance of 2 trillion special refinancing bonds in 2026. Monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with no obvious constraints on marginal easing [51]. - **Policy Implementation Timing**: Short - term bond purchases by the central bank are more likely, while reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are more likely to occur at the end of the year, perhaps to align with the December Central Economic Work Conference [52]. - **Central Bank Bond Purchase Maturity**: Based on institutional behavior, the central bank's bond purchases may be extended to within 5 - year maturities [57]. PART3: Bond Market Strategies - **Trading Opportunities for Bonds within 10 Years**: Leading indicators such as social financing and M1 growth are approaching a phased peak. In terms of valuation, 10 - year treasury bonds are relatively cheap compared to listed companies' ROIC and are close to the upper limit of the interest rate corridor. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by 17BP, fully pricing in the current stabilizing - growth policies but not pricing in potential monetary policy benefits [4][64][71]. - **Repricing Risks for Ultra - long Bonds**: Ultra - long bonds may face repricing risks. Based on calculations, the current ultra - long bond yields may have fully priced in inflation improvement. The potential risks include continuous stabilizing - growth policies and global fiscal expansion [80]. - **Short - term Market Contradictions and Strategies**: Short - term market contradictions lie in institutional behavior and sentiment. It is recommended to focus on short - term treasury bonds within 5 years and certificates of deposit in the short term and participate in duration - offensive bonds after negative factors are realized [87].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the simulated credit style portfolio yields have generally declined, while the losses in most interest rate style portfolios have narrowed [3][11] - The AA+ medium-short secondary bonds and interest rate bonds in the heavy positions have stabilized in yield compared to early this month [3][18] - The average weekly yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 7 basis points to -0.11%, which is less than the recovery seen last week, indicating a controlled overall decline [3][18] Group 2 - In terms of yield sources, most strategy combinations have seen an increase in coupon rates, with city investment and mixed bullet strategies rising by over 0.04 basis points [4][26] - The annualized coupon rates for medium-long strategies, including city investment duration, bullet, and perpetual bond duration combinations, have risen to over 2.16% [4][26] - The coupon contributions of the credit style portfolio have fallen into the range of -35% to 0%, indicating that coupon yields are unable to cover capital loss [4][26] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the cumulative excess losses and volatility of the perpetual bond duration strategy have both increased [5][30] - The cumulative excess yields for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bond bullet, and brokerage bond duration strategies are 21.3 basis points, 14.2 basis points, and -0.8 basis points respectively [5][30] - The short-duration deposit strategies have outperformed, with excess yields reaching the highest point since March [5][32]