超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 2 月 13 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 45BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，1 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-1.4%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 近期债市回调概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。2025 年四季度无增发国债，短期政府托底经 济力度减弱，2025年四季度 GDP增速已经回落到了后疫情时代最低水平， 我国经济依然承压。同时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有 所调降。另一方面，春节前后属于统计局数据真空期，当前利率绝对水 平偏低，A 股春季躁动量价齐升，预计股债跷跷板效应强化。近期 30-10 利差高位企稳，预计短期利差高位震荡为主。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 超长债周报 30-10 期限利差继续高位震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：1 月通胀继续回暖 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a mixed economic performance in January, with emerging industries showing strength while manufacturing PMI declined, reflecting a structural optimization trend in the economy [9][10] - February has shown signs of improvement across various economic activities, with production and consumption rebounding, supported by increased logistics and consumer traffic [10] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with new home transactions recovering from lows and a decrease in second-hand home listings indicating changing market expectations [10] Group 2: Fixed Income and REITs - The convertible bond market experienced a rapid recovery after valuation compression, with over half of the convertible bonds rising in price [12][13] - The public REITs market saw a decline of 0.9% in the index, with commercial real estate REITs continuing to expand despite overall market downturns [15][16] - The average weekly return for different types of REITs varied, with transportation and ecological REITs showing smaller declines compared to others [16] Group 3: Industry Insights - The fluorochemical industry reported significant growth in January 2026, with prices for fluorinated polymers continuing to rise [3] - The oil and gas sector saw a substantial increase in prices due to geopolitical tensions, impacting overall market dynamics [3] - The lithium battery supply chain is advancing rapidly, with companies like CATL accelerating sodium battery applications in passenger vehicles [3] Group 4: Overseas Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, particularly in the software and semiconductor sectors, with significant capital outflows [29][32] - The Hong Kong market also faced a downturn, with consumer and industrial sectors performing relatively better amidst overall market declines [29][32] - The strategy indices in the Hong Kong market are becoming essential tools for asset allocation and risk management, particularly in volatile environments [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The overall risk in the cross-year bond market is controllable, with a tendency for a warm sentiment to continue in the short term. The focus should be on the yield curve dynamics, particularly the narrowing of the 10-2 year spread and maintaining the 30-10 spread around 40 basis points [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for long-term bonds has improved significantly, with most long-term local government bonds issued at rates below 2.5%, indicating strong market absorption capacity [1]. - Technical indicators show a notable improvement, with recent trading sessions experiencing upward momentum and a low-level golden cross in the KDJ indicator, suggesting a shift in short-term funding focus [1]. - Funding rates are stabilizing and declining, but the future downward space is limited unless there is a reduction in the Open Market Operation (OMO) rates [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds present a high cost-performance ratio, as their rebound has not fully absorbed the benefits of monetary easing, indicating clear potential for price recovery [2]. - The supply pressure for 10-year bonds is relatively controllable compared to ultra-long bonds, with a current yield of approximately 1.96%, providing a thicker spread protection compared to 10-year government bonds [2]. Group 3: Short and Ultra-Long Bonds - The pricing of medium and short-term bonds has fully reflected the benefits of monetary easing, with limited further downward space and significant compression of spreads, making the cost-effectiveness of carry strategies insufficient [3]. - The issuance of ultra-long local government bonds has been stable, indicating market absorption capacity, but caution is advised regarding older bonds due to potential selling pressure and liquidity issues [3]. - The 30-year government bonds are expected to follow the recovery of 10-year bonds, with a compression of spreads anticipated but not expected to fall below 40 basis points [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors that the central bank would introduce a liquidity management tool for overnight interest rates, the gold price plunged from a high level, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active, and both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and policies, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors of a central bank liquidity management tool, the gold price plunged, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bond**: As of January 30, the 30-10 spread was 46BP, at a low historical level. The economic downward pressure in December was alleviated, with a GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a bond market correction in February is higher due to factors such as the weakening government support and the expected strengthening of the stock-bond seesaw effect. The 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20-year CDB Bond**: As of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the economic situation in December improved, and the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher. The variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 24.8 trillion. As of January 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 248,306 billion, accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 26 - 30, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged to 2,525 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume increased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30-year bonds had the highest issuance volume [18]. Primary Market - This Week's Pending Issuance - This week's announced ultra-long bond issuance plan totals 3,173 billion yuan, including 320 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds, 2,838 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds, 15 billion yuan of ultra-long corporate bonds, and no ultra-long medium-term notes [22]. Secondary Market - Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,113 billion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bonds. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week, with a decrease in the trading volume and proportion of ultra-long treasury bonds, an increase in those of ultra-long local bonds, and decreases in those of ultra-long policy financial bonds and ultra-long government agency bonds [25]. Secondary Market - Yield - Last week, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed to 2.14%, 2.26%, 2.29%, and 2.47% respectively [36]. Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30-10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a -1BP change from the previous week, at the 38% percentile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20-year CDB bond and treasury bond and between the 20-year railway bond and treasury bond were 14BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -1BP from the previous week, at the 11% and 14% percentiles since 2010 [44]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, T2603, closed at 111.92 yuan, a -0.34% increase. The total trading volume was 427,200 lots (-35,804 lots), and the open interest was 134,800 lots (-5,688 lots), with both the trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly compared with the previous week [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to systematically construct an analytical framework for the issuance and pricing of ultra - long bonds, and comprehensively analyzes the historical evolution and theoretical framework of overseas ultra - long bonds. It first reviews the history and motives of the US, Japan, and Germany in issuing ultra - long bonds, then analyzes the supply and demand sides, introduces the Bernanke three - factor pricing model to attribute the yield fluctuations of ultra - long bonds, and finally summarizes historical experience through the review of recent yield changes [4][7][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government's Motivation for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds - **Origin of Ultra - long Bonds**: In 1953, the US Treasury issued the first ultra - long bond to reduce the cost of frequent short - term bond issuance; in 1986, Germany issued its first ultra - long bond to extend debt duration and reduce refinancing risk; in 1999, Japan included 30 - year treasury bonds in its issuance system to diversify the bond market's maturity structure [21]. - **Motives for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds**: Overseas countries issue ultra - long bonds mainly to raise funds for structural fiscal expansion, optimize the debt structure, and meet the market demand for long - term safe assets. For example, after 2008, the US increased 30 - year bond issuance with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and Japan used ultra - long bonds to support the economy in a deflationary environment [24]. 3.2 Historical Review of Ultra - long Bond Development - **US**: The development of US ultra - long bonds follows the logic of "crisis - driven + policy linkage". During economic crises, the government increases issuance to supplement fiscal funds, and the Fed lowers interest rates and buys bonds to support the market. Yield trends are closely related to issuance scale [30]. - **Japan**: The development of Japanese ultra - long bonds is a win - win for finance and currency. It helps the government finance and reduces long - term costs, and is also a tool for the central bank to control the yield curve. Issuance scale increases during crises with central bank easing [34]. - **Germany**: German ultra - long bonds show a dynamic evolution of "demand - anchored, cycle - adapted, and function - expanded". Initially for debt maturity structure optimization, they later meet long - term expenditure needs and expand functions such as being an interest - rate benchmark and a safe - haven asset [37]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Pricing: Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Taking the US as an example, Congress confirms the fiscal budget and debt ceiling in advance, and the Treasury formulates a specific issuance plan. The issuance form includes new issuance and additional issuance. The issuance mechanism in the US, Germany, and Japan varies. The US uses a "single - price (Dutch)" auction, while Germany and Japan use a "multiple - price" auction. The proportion of long - term bond issuance is mainly determined by financing costs, term premiums, and debt management strategies [41][49][50]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for ultra - long bonds comes from three aspects. Pension funds and insurance companies have rigid asset - liability management needs; hedge funds, banks, and asset management institutions have trading and arbitrage needs; central banks buy and sell ultra - long bonds for unconventional monetary policies and financial stability. Currently, the demand for US ultra - long bonds is more diversified, with investment funds becoming the largest demanders, and the proportion of primary dealers' allocation decreasing [54][61]. 3.4 Ultra - long Bond Pricing - **Bernanke Three - factor Model**: The long - term interest rate is decomposed into inflation expectations, the expected path of short - term real interest rates, and term premiums [70]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Long - term inflation expectations fluctuate around the 2% inflation target and are affected by economic growth. When the economy grows strongly, inflation expectations rise [74][76]. - **Expected Real Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term real interest rate is mainly determined by the benchmark interest rate. The Fed's benchmark interest rate decision considers inflation and the employment market [79]. - **Term Premiums**: In recent years, the impact of term premiums on long - term bond yields has increased. It includes factors such as liquidity premiums, credit risk premiums, growth premiums, and inflation volatility premiums. Central bank quantitative easing policies can suppress term premiums, and credit risk premiums were significant during the European debt crisis, while fiscal expansion can increase growth risk premiums [81][85][87]. 3.5 Recent Trends and Future Forecasts - **Current Trends**: In the context of the global "big fiscal" era, concerns about the debt sustainability of developed economies have led to a re - evaluation of term premiums, causing the yields of US, Japanese, and German ultra - long bonds to rise. For the US, expansionary fiscal policies and a weakened US dollar have increased term premiums; for Japan, the central bank's policy adjustment and fiscal deterioration have led to a rise in yields; for Germany, fiscal expansion has pushed up yields [91][93][95]. - **Future Forecasts**: Unless developed economies abandon the "debt - driven" development model and improve long - term productivity, overseas ultra - long bond yields may continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds may reach around 4.6% and 5.1% respectively [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced buying bonds worth 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale the same as in October. The open - market had a large - scale net withdrawal, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market had a strong start with both volume and price rising. The bond market first declined and then rose, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][4][11]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 9, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a relatively low historical level. For the 20 - year CDB bond, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic downward pressure increased in November, and the deflation risk continued to ease in December. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to the central government's leverage - increasing support. Considering no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in the financing growth rate of government bonds in Q4, the domestic economy in Q4 was still under pressure. Also, the Party Central Committee attaches more importance to high - quality development in 2026. With the low absolute level of interest rates, the sharp rise of the A - share market at the beginning of the year, and the large selling pressure of treasury bond futures, investors' sentiment was generally weak. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond will fluctuate in a narrow range [2][3][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank bought 50 billion yuan of bonds in November, with the scale the same as in October. The open - market had a large - scale net withdrawal, inflation continued to warm up in December, the A - share market had a strong start, the bond market first declined and then rose, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure increased in November (GDP growth rate was about 4.1% year - on - year, down 0.1% from October). In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 9, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond, considering economic and market factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 24,432.9 billion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased sharply, reaching 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds, 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds, and 0.5 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds all changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 42BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 27% quantile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 14BP and 18BP respectively, up 0BP and 1BP from the previous week, at the 12% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 110.87 yuan, a decline of - 0.48%. The total trading volume was 560,700 lots, and the open interest was 148,200 lots. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared with the previous week [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the central bank announced bond purchases of 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale remaining the same as in October. There was a significant net withdrawal in the open - market operations, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market started the year with strong volume and price. The bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][4][11][38]. - As of January 9, the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the economic situation and market factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds will have a narrow - range fluctuation [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's bond - buying scale in November was 50 billion yuan, the same as in October. With open - market net withdrawal, inflation recovery, and A - share market strength, the bond market first declined and then rebounded. The ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. Both term and variety spreads widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a low historical level. The domestic economic downward pressure increased in November, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 9, the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic situation is similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds account for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion at 40.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds surged to 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 185.8 billion yuan. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for 115.1 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - Due to factors such as central bank bond - buying and market conditions, the ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively [38]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread also widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 42BP, and the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP [50][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 110.87 yuan, with a decline of - 0.48%. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on various fiscal announcements, the report calculates the supply of government bonds and ultra - long bonds in Q1 2026 and interprets the key points of market - concerned supply [8]. - It analyzes the characteristics of government bond issuance in Q1 2026, including the situation of treasury bonds, local bonds, and makes supply forecasts [1][3][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: In Q1, the number of issuances changes little, the single - issue scale rises and then falls, and there is room for acceleration in the future 3.1.1 Q1 Treasury Bond Plan: The number of issuances changes little, and 30y bonds use new codes - The number of treasury bond issuances in Q1 2026 is similar to that in the same period of 2025, with the number of coupon - bearing treasury bonds and savings bonds of each term remaining the same as in Q1 2025, and an additional 3M discount treasury bond issued in March 2026. The 50 - year treasury bond is postponed from February to March [9]. - 30y treasury bonds will use new codes. After the announcement, 250002 performed weakly, and 2500006 may continue to be the active bond in the short term. There is a risk of failure in the coupon - bond replacement of 30y ordinary treasury bonds [10]. 3.1.2 Single - issue Scale of Key - term Treasury Bonds: It rises first and then falls, and there may still be room for acceleration in the future - In January 2026, the single - issue scale of 2 - year and 10 - year coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025, which may be due to high maturity pressure, the need to form physical workloads earlier, and to make way for the issuance of special treasury bonds [15][16]. - The single - issue scale of 1 - year treasury bonds later decreased to 135 billion. If the issuance speed of 135 billion continues, the monthly average may be around 150 billion, which is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit rate. To catch up with the net financing progress in 2025 in Q1, the quarterly average single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds needs to reach 170 billion, indicating room for acceleration [18][19]. - Treasury bonds can use the remaining quota for issuance expansion before the Two Sessions. The remaining quota at the beginning of 2026 is expected to be around 580 billion, providing room for expansion [23]. 3.1.3 The quota of ultra - long special treasury bonds is pre - allocated but issued later - No special treasury bonds are scheduled for issuance in Q1. Ultra - long special treasury bonds show the characteristic of "quota pre - allocation but issuance postponement". The "Two - New" quota in 2026 is pre - allocated in a reduced scale but earlier, while the "Two - Important" quota is pre - allocated in a larger scale but later [25][29][30]. 3.2 Local Bonds: In Q1, the issuance scale is similar to that in the same period of 2025, the rhythm is earlier, and the terms vary across regions 3.2.1 Q1 Local Bond Plan: The issuance scale is basically the same as that in Q1 2025, and the supply is more concentrated in January - The planned issuance scale of the regions that have released plans is close to that in the same period of 2025. Affected by the Spring Festival shift, the issuance in January 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025 [31][32]. 3.2.2 Terms: Different regions show differentiation, and term shortening is not yet a general phenomenon - Regions with significantly shortened terms include Guangxi and Zhejiang, which do not arrange the issuance of 30y varieties and increase 10 - 20y varieties [32]. - Regions with little change in terms include Beijing and Shandong. Beijing's new special bonds still cover the full range of 1 - 30y terms, and Shandong's weighted average term is similar to that in Q1 2025 [33]. - Regions with significantly extended terms include Qingdao, which added 30y varieties that were not issued in 2025 [33]. 3.3 Q1 Supply Forecast: It is expected that the net financing of government bonds will be 3.6 trillion, and the issuance of ultra - long bonds will be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion 3.3.1 Government Bond Supply Forecast: The Q1 net financing is 3.6 trillion, including 2.15 trillion local bonds and 1.46 trillion treasury bonds - Local bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 2.15 trillion, with January and March being the supply peaks. The net financing in January, February, and March is expected to be 830 billion, 490 billion, and 840 billion respectively [38]. - Treasury bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 1.46 trillion. The single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds is assumed to be 135 billion for the remaining 3 issues in January, rising to 175 billion in February, and around 190 billion in March due to high maturity pressure [39]. 3.3.2 Ultra - long Bond Supply Forecast: The issuance in Q1 is 1.4 - 1.77 trillion, including 11.6 billion treasury bonds and 1.3 - 1.65 trillion local bonds - Ultra - long treasury bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be around 11.6 billion, with 32 billion, 32 billion, and 52 billion issued in January, February, and March respectively [42]. - Ultra - long local bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion, with different issuance scales calculated according to different reference term structures [43].

Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - Asset management institutions have mixed views on the bond market for 2026, with many being more optimistic about the stock market [1][2] - The A-share market structure may change slightly in 2026, with technology stocks likely to continue leading, but differentiation is expected [1][8] - The domestic capital market is anticipated to show a pattern of stock and bond resonance upward in 2026 [8] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - There is significant divergence in opinions regarding the bond market, with some institutions believing that the space for bonds in 2026 is limited [2] - The 30-year government bond futures have dropped by 7.39% since July 2025, raising concerns about risks associated with long-term bonds [4] - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility with a slight upward trend in the 10-year bond yield to around 1.8% [4] Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The external environment for the stock market is favorable, with the U.S. Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle, potentially providing additional liquidity to the Chinese stock market [7] - The continued low interest rates may drive a shift in wealth allocation from real estate to equities among residents [7] - The financial regulatory authority has eased restrictions on insurance capital entering the stock market, which may enhance investment activity [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies for 2026 are still being defined, with a focus on stable products and dividend stocks, while higher-risk products may target technology stocks [8] - There is a potential for consumer blue-chip stocks to gain attention as their valuations have become attractive amid a recovering consumption growth [8] - The market is expected to benefit from a combination of U.S. rate cuts and domestic policy support, with bonds likely to return to a focus on fundamental recovery [8]