1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on various fiscal announcements, the report calculates the supply of government bonds and ultra - long bonds in Q1 2026 and interprets the key points of market - concerned supply [8]. - It analyzes the characteristics of government bond issuance in Q1 2026, including the situation of treasury bonds, local bonds, and makes supply forecasts [1][3][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: In Q1, the number of issuances changes little, the single - issue scale rises and then falls, and there is room for acceleration in the future 3.1.1 Q1 Treasury Bond Plan: The number of issuances changes little, and 30y bonds use new codes - The number of treasury bond issuances in Q1 2026 is similar to that in the same period of 2025, with the number of coupon - bearing treasury bonds and savings bonds of each term remaining the same as in Q1 2025, and an additional 3M discount treasury bond issued in March 2026. The 50 - year treasury bond is postponed from February to March [9]. - 30y treasury bonds will use new codes. After the announcement, 250002 performed weakly, and 2500006 may continue to be the active bond in the short term. There is a risk of failure in the coupon - bond replacement of 30y ordinary treasury bonds [10]. 3.1.2 Single - issue Scale of Key - term Treasury Bonds: It rises first and then falls, and there may still be room for acceleration in the future - In January 2026, the single - issue scale of 2 - year and 10 - year coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025, which may be due to high maturity pressure, the need to form physical workloads earlier, and to make way for the issuance of special treasury bonds [15][16]. - The single - issue scale of 1 - year treasury bonds later decreased to 135 billion. If the issuance speed of 135 billion continues, the monthly average may be around 150 billion, which is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit rate. To catch up with the net financing progress in 2025 in Q1, the quarterly average single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds needs to reach 170 billion, indicating room for acceleration [18][19]. - Treasury bonds can use the remaining quota for issuance expansion before the Two Sessions. The remaining quota at the beginning of 2026 is expected to be around 580 billion, providing room for expansion [23]. 3.1.3 The quota of ultra - long special treasury bonds is pre - allocated but issued later - No special treasury bonds are scheduled for issuance in Q1. Ultra - long special treasury bonds show the characteristic of "quota pre - allocation but issuance postponement". The "Two - New" quota in 2026 is pre - allocated in a reduced scale but earlier, while the "Two - Important" quota is pre - allocated in a larger scale but later [25][29][30]. 3.2 Local Bonds: In Q1, the issuance scale is similar to that in the same period of 2025, the rhythm is earlier, and the terms vary across regions 3.2.1 Q1 Local Bond Plan: The issuance scale is basically the same as that in Q1 2025, and the supply is more concentrated in January - The planned issuance scale of the regions that have released plans is close to that in the same period of 2025. Affected by the Spring Festival shift, the issuance in January 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025 [31][32]. 3.2.2 Terms: Different regions show differentiation, and term shortening is not yet a general phenomenon - Regions with significantly shortened terms include Guangxi and Zhejiang, which do not arrange the issuance of 30y varieties and increase 10 - 20y varieties [32]. - Regions with little change in terms include Beijing and Shandong. Beijing's new special bonds still cover the full range of 1 - 30y terms, and Shandong's weighted average term is similar to that in Q1 2025 [33]. - Regions with significantly extended terms include Qingdao, which added 30y varieties that were not issued in 2025 [33]. 3.3 Q1 Supply Forecast: It is expected that the net financing of government bonds will be 3.6 trillion, and the issuance of ultra - long bonds will be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion 3.3.1 Government Bond Supply Forecast: The Q1 net financing is 3.6 trillion, including 2.15 trillion local bonds and 1.46 trillion treasury bonds - Local bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 2.15 trillion, with January and March being the supply peaks. The net financing in January, February, and March is expected to be 830 billion, 490 billion, and 840 billion respectively [38]. - Treasury bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 1.46 trillion. The single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds is assumed to be 135 billion for the remaining 3 issues in January, rising to 175 billion in February, and around 190 billion in March due to high maturity pressure [39]. 3.3.2 Ultra - long Bond Supply Forecast: The issuance in Q1 is 1.4 - 1.77 trillion, including 11.6 billion treasury bonds and 1.3 - 1.65 trillion local bonds - Ultra - long treasury bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be around 11.6 billion, with 32 billion, 32 billion, and 52 billion issued in January, February, and March respectively [42]. - Ultra - long local bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion, with different issuance scales calculated according to different reference term structures [43].

2025年即将收尾，2026年即将到来。 资管机构如何看待2026年股债行情？21世纪经济报道记者采访了多位资管机构投资经理、资管部门相关人士，对于2026年债市表现，机构分歧较大，不过多 数受访者对股市行情更乐观。 对于部分品种，比如超长债，部分机构担忧风险持续释放。而对于A股行情结构将如何演变，不少机构认为，2026年A股行情结构可能略出现变化，科技股 或依然引领行情，但可能出现分化。在扩内需的背景下，调整到位的消费白马股关注度或有所提高。2026年，国内资本市场有望呈现股债共振上行的格局。 债市分歧加大 "目前大家对债市的分歧比较大，我们认为2026年债市的空间不大，权益应该还不错。"某大行理财公司投资经理认为。 2025年债市以震荡为主，一季度、三季度均出现了一轮调整，截至12月26日，中债新综合财富（总值）指数年内略上涨0.78%。 超长债持续下跌让部分机构"心慌"，截至2025年12月29日，30年期国债期货7月份以来下跌7.39%。"超长债一直跌，我们有点担心风险，害怕继续跌，但是 作为险资又不能不配置长债，总之尽量往短一点期限去调整吧。"某保险公司资产管理部负责人告诉记者。 招商银行研究院近期 ...

中信证券指出，11月中旬以来，超长债利率波动加大，长久期负债缺口、流动性季节性考核等因素压制 银行超长债的配置意愿。考虑到明年财政发力节奏预计较为均衡，商业银行资产端超长债实际收益率仍 相对丰厚，负债端在央行货币政策框架改革长期影响下压力减轻，长远看超长债仍具备一定配置性价 比。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant differentiation since mid-November, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds widening to over 40 basis points due to lower-than-expected central bank bond purchases and strong profit-taking by institutions [1] - After a continuous decline, long-term bonds began to recover in late December, driven by expectations of loose monetary policy and various market influences, including potential reductions in long-term bond issuance [1][3] - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist into 2026, with increasing influence from asset pricing and institutional behavior on the bond market, while traditional allocation strategies face pressure from interest rate risk assessments [3][4] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, while monetary policy will focus on coordination, with expectations for a deficit level around 4% and a corresponding scale of 5.9 trillion yuan [3] - The supply of bonds is projected to increase in 2026, but the marginal growth rate is expected to slow down, with a likelihood of one rate cut of 10 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio reduction [3][5] - The yield curve is expected to steepen further, with the 30-year and 10-year bond yield spread likely to remain elevated, and the market is facing uncertainties regarding central bank bond purchases and public fund redemption rates [5]

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

中信证券研报认为，近期长债和超长债波动幅度加大，可能主要源于商业银行负债端压力。压力一方面 与监管考核等季节性因素有关，另一方面在央行延续货币政策框架改革背景下，或被央行扩表工具的投 放逐步对冲。考虑次年财政端压力或相对可控，在资金宽松而降息降准等宽货币工具仍待落地的大环境 下，长远来看超长债仍具一定的配置意义，建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机会。 ...

人民财讯12月22日电，中信证券研报认为，近期长债和超长债波动幅度加大，可能主要源于商业银行负 债端压力。压力一方面与监管考核等季节性因素有关，另一方面在央行延续货币政策框架改革背景下， 或被央行扩表工具的投放逐步对冲。考虑次年财政端压力或相对可控，在资金宽松而降息降准等宽货币 工具仍待落地的大环境下，长远来看超长债仍具一定的配置意义，建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机 会。 ...

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio's returns have continued to rebound, with the exception of some secondary bond-heavy portfolios, while other credit style strategies have not outperformed their corresponding interest rate styles [3][17][22] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the secondary ultra-long and mixed barbell strategies showed significant rebounds, with weekly returns of 0.16% and 0.13% respectively [3][19] - In the credit style portfolio, the secondary ultra-long and mixed barbell strategies led with returns of 0.29% and 0.17% respectively [3][19] Group 2 - The average weekly return of the credit style time deposit heavy portfolio increased by 9.7 basis points to 0.06%, while the cumulative return since the fourth quarter has been lower than the corresponding interest rate style [3][22] - The city investment heavy portfolio's average return rose by 21 basis points to 0.07%, with bullet strategies achieving a return of 0.11%, outperforming short-end and barbell strategies [3][22] - The average return of the secondary capital bond heavy portfolio increased to 0.14%, with rebounds in secondary sinking and mixed barbell strategies at 0.15% and 0.17% respectively, but these rebounds were insufficient to offset previous losses [3][22] Group 3 - The credit style portfolio's coupon rates have shown signs of recovery, particularly in the bank subordinated bond heavy portfolio, which has a competitive yield in absolute terms [4][29] - The annualized yields for the secondary perpetual bond duration strategy are 2.19% and 2.23%, approximately 39 basis points away from the year's low [4][29] - The contribution from coupon income ranges from 20% to 90%, with most of the week's returns coming from capital gains [4][29] Group 4 - In the past four weeks, controlling drawdown has become the main strategy objective, with short-end sinking and commercial bank bond portfolios still showing positive cumulative excess returns [5][33] - The cumulative excess returns for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bullet, and broker bond sinking portfolios are 5 basis points, 4.4 basis points, and 1.5 basis points respectively, while other medium to long-term strategies have accumulated less than 5 basis points [5][33] - The city investment barbell strategy, which performed well in the previous two months, has seen its cumulative excess return drop to -25.7 basis points over the past four weeks [5][33] Group 5 - The trading direction for 4 to 5-year long-term credit bonds may show divergence, with some medium to long-term duration strategies lacking excess returns [6][36] - The short-end time deposit strategy's excess return turned negative this week, while the city investment sinking strategy showed a slight positive deviation from the benchmark [6][36] - The excess returns for ultra-long strategies have risen to their highest level since late October, with city investment, industry, and secondary ultra-long strategies recording 9.4 basis points, 11.1 basis points, and 29.7 basis points respectively [6][36]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 超长债周报 中央经济工作会议召开，超长债波动剧烈 一级发行：上周超长债发行量激增。和上上周相比，超长债总发行量大 幅上升。 成交量：上周超长债交投非常活跃。上周超长债交投活跃度小幅回落。 收益率：上周中央经济工作会议和政治局会议召开，提出要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度，提升宏观经济治理效能，政策力度总体低于市场预期，债市触底反弹， 但是周五市场再次担心超长债供给 30 年国债涨幅快速回吐。全周来看，债 市大幅波动，总体略微回暖。 利差分析：上周超长债期限利差走平，绝对水平偏低。上周超长债品种利差 走阔，绝对水平偏低。 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周中央经济工作会议和政治局会议召开，提出要坚持稳 中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能，政策力度总体低于市场预期， 债市触底反弹，但是周五市场再次担心超长债供给 30 年国债涨幅快速 回吐。全周来看，债市大幅波动，总体略微回暖。成交方面，上周超长 债交投活跃度小幅回落，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since November, global long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 30-year government bond rates rising across various countries, indicating a shift in monetary policy expectations and market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Yield Increase - The catalyst for the rise in yields is the adjustment in global monetary policy expectations, driven by inflation pressures in countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada, leading to increased interest rate hike expectations [2]. - In the Eurozone, a rebound in November inflation data has led markets to speculate on future rate hikes, while the U.S. has seen a convergence of rate cut expectations due to unclear future guidance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - China's recent monetary policy report hints at "moderate easing," suggesting limited room for rate cuts, contributing to the overall hawkish signals from major central banks [2]. Group 2: Underlying Issues - The persistent weakness in the overseas long-term bond market is attributed to a vicious cycle of high debt and high inflation, with policy changes being short-term factors [3]. - The global inflationary environment has shifted to a higher rate era, while major economies continue to pursue fiscal expansion, exacerbating debt levels and maintaining a tight policy stance [3]. - In China, the rebound in long-term bond yields is influenced by a preference for equities over bonds, as stock market returns appear more attractive [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of long-term bonds is increasing, with over 29% of domestic government bonds maturing in over 10 years by year-end, while demand from institutions is weakening [4]. - Market expectations for a weak domestic bond market in the coming year have reduced the urgency for year-end allocations, and various institutional constraints are limiting demand for long-term bonds [4]. Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The outlook for long-term rates varies globally, with countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada facing upward pressure on yields due to ongoing rate hike expectations [5]. - In contrast, the U.S. and U.K. are in a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a stabilization of long-term yields at high levels [5]. - In China, the probability of long-term bond yields rising in tandem with global trends is low, as domestic inflation is expected to recover moderately and monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative [6]. Group 5: Currency Implications - The divergence in global monetary policies is expected to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. currencies, particularly as the U.S. is anticipated to cut rates more aggressively than non-U.S. economies [7]. - Structural changes in the foreign exchange market suggest that currencies with strong fundamentals, such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan, may experience appreciation driven by interest rate differentials [7].