证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 超长债周报 经济放缓，超长债横盘震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 10 月统计局数据显示经济增速继续放缓，通胀 小幅回升，另外金融数据增速全面回落，总体经济依然存在压力，债市 先扬后抑，超长债微涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降， 交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 16 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The probability of a bond market rebound is high. For 30 - year Treasury bonds, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound. For 20 - year CDB bonds, the variety spread is expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11][12] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the central bank announced 20 billion yuan of Treasury bond transactions in October. The A - share market reached 4000 points again, the bond market had a slight correction, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][4][10] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 7, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. With economic downward pressure increasing in September, Q3 GDP at 4.8% year - on - year (down 0.4% from Q2), and deflation risks existing (September CPI at - 0.3% and PPI at - 2.3%), the bond market is likely to rebound. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 7, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering the economic situation and central bank's actions, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 23.9 trillion yuan. As of October 31, the ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 23.9836 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was small. From November 3 to 7, 2025, 6.29 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant decrease compared with the previous week. By variety, Treasury bonds were 2 billion yuan, local government bonds were 4.14 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 0.86 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds were 2.01 billion yuan, etc. [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 13.22 billion yuan, including 2.7 billion yuan of ultra - long Treasury bonds, 10.42 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds, and 0.1 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0951 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.1% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds was 790.6 billion yuan, etc. [28] Yield - Last week, due to the central bank's announcement of Treasury bond transactions and the A - share market reaching 4000 points, the bond market had a slight correction and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year Treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 2BP, 2BP, and 3BP to 2.05%, 2.15%, 2.16%, and 2.23% respectively. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [34] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 34BP, down 1BP from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [41] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds was 15BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds was 17BP, with changes of 0BP and - 2BP respectively from the previous week, at the 12% percentile since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2512 of 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 115.95 yuan, a decrease of 0.63%. The total trading volume was 573,900 lots (down 104,798 lots), and the open interest was 180,600 lots (down 2,293 lots), with a significant decrease in trading volume and a slight decrease in open interest compared with the previous week [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rose significantly due to factors such as the central bank governor's announcement to resume open - market treasury bond trading, the Sino - US summit consensus, and the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, and the curve steepened. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - Considering the domestic economic situation and the central bank's policy, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are expected to compress [2][3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market soared. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, the curve steepened. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 31, the 30 - 10 spread was 35BP, at a historically low level. With economic downward pressure and deflation risks, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of October 31, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 15BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic conditions, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread is expected to compress again [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased. A total of 105.1 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, mainly local government bonds. By term, 15 - year bonds were 25.3 billion, 20 - year were 30.8 billion, and 30 - year were 49 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan this week is 62.9 billion yuan, including 20 billion of ultra - long treasury bonds, 41.4 billion of ultra - long local government bonds, and 1.5 billion of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1.0428 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bond turnover. Trading activity decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the turnover increased by 11.2 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [28]. Yield - Due to multiple factors, the bond market rose, and the decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less. The yields of different - term and different - type bonds changed accordingly. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02's yield changed by - 3.9BP to 2.07% [41][42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 35BP, 1BP lower than the previous week, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread changed by 3BP and 6BP respectively, at the 12% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 3 - year treasury bond futures' main variety TL2512 closed at 116.68 yuan, an increase of 1.45%. The total trading volume was 678,600 lots (- 14,457 lots), and the open interest was 182,800 lots (+ 6,763 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. With the initiation of China-US dialogue, Europe's support for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, the bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly last week, but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. With the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in Q4, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy will still face pressure. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As of October 26, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 36BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of September 30, the balance of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: The issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged last week. A total of 118.1 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 12.6 billion yuan had a 15-year term, 37.7 billion yuan had a 20-year term, and 67.8 billion yuan had a 30-year term [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The planned issuance volume of ultra-long bonds announced this week is 105.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading of ultra-long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 1.0317 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous two weeks, the trading volume decreased by 47.5 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [27]. - **Yield**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.09%, 2.20%, 2.21%, and 2.29%. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year CDB bonds changed by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.20%, 2.32%, 2.38%, and 2.45% [3][35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30-year - 10-year spread of treasury bonds was 36BP, 2BP lower than the previous two weeks, at the 17% quantile since 2010. The spreads between 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 12BP and 13BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -6BP compared to the previous two weeks, at the 10% and 9% quantiles since 2010 [41][46]. 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.01 yuan, a decrease of 0.74%. The total trading volume was 693,100 lots (-28,779 lots), and the open interest was 176,100 lots (-8,882 lots). Both the trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous two weeks [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active [1][3][10][37]. - The economic data shows downward pressure, and deflation risks still exist. It is expected that the bond market will rebound in October. The 30 - 10 spread and the 20 - year China Development Bank bond spread are expected to compress [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the export data in September was still strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom [1][10][37]. - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10][4]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and the upcoming release of Q3 economic data, it is expected that the bond market will rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread will compress [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically very low level. With the expected rebound of the bond market, the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.3%, and others accounted for relatively small proportions [13]. - The 30-year variety has the highest proportion. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 year (inclusive) variety accounted for 39.9%, the highest [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 57.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, mainly including 40 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 17.7 billion yuan of local government bonds [20]. - By maturity, 50.4 billion yuan had a 20-year maturity, 6.1 billion yuan a 30-year maturity, and 1.3 billion yuan a 15-year maturity [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume [29]. - By variety, ultra-long Treasury bonds had a trading volume of 894.9 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 156.5 billion yuan, ultra-long policy financial bonds 6.1 billion yuan, and ultra-long government agency bonds 6.7 billion yuan [30]. - Compared with the week before last, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the trading volume and proportion of most varieties changing to varying degrees [30]. Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different maturities changed to varying degrees [37]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond active bond 25 ultra-long special Treasury bond 02 decreased by 1.6BP to 2.068%, and the yield of the 20-year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 China Development Bank 20 decreased by 1.5BP to 2.175% [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [4][46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 respectively [4][52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots), both increasing significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened. It is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [1][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the weak economy and the possible continuous loosening of monetary policy, it is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically as the bond market rebounds [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low position. It is expected that the bond market will continue to rebound, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, 2025, the total ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years were 23.7802 trillion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. In terms of remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (October 12 - October 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 577 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase in the total issuance compared with the week before last. In terms of variety, 400 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 177 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued. In terms of term, 13 billion yuan with a term of 15 years, 504 billion yuan with a term of 20 years, and 61 billion yuan with a term of 30 years were issued [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra-long bonds was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra-long bonds increased by 833.9 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 0.3% [29][30]. - **Yield**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [37]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and 0BP compared with the week before last, at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume of 30-year Treasury bond futures was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra-long bonds started a rebound after an over - decline. The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [1][3][6][31] - In the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. For the 30 - year treasury bonds, considering the widening of the 30 - 10 term spread, it is expected that the yield of the 30 - year variety will have a larger downward space in the rebound. For the 20 - year CDB bonds, considering the widening of the variety spread between the 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, it is expected that the yield of the 20 - year CDB bonds will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ultra - long Bond Review - The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [1][3][6] - Against the background of the National Day holiday, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading remained active. [1][6] - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed. [1][3][6] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of October 12, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. [2][7] - In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase. The estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in August was about 3.8%, continuing to decline from July. In terms of inflation, the CPI in August was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9%, with deflation risks remaining. [2][7][8] - In the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. The domestic economic operation pressure was high in July and August, and the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed. The current 10 - 1 term spread of 40BP is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic expectation, and the upward pressure on the long - end is not large under the stable monetary policy. The A - share market still shows a structural market feature, and the emotional suppression of the stock market on the bond market has weakened. Considering the widening of the 30 - 10 term spread of treasury bonds recently, it is expected that the yield of the 30 - year variety will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][7] 20 - year CDB Bonds - As of October 12, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at a historically extremely low level. [2][8] - Similar to the 30 - year treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. Considering the widening of the variety spread between the 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds recently, it is expected that the yield of the 20 - year CDB bonds will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][8] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 23.7802 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. [9] - By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year (inclusive) variety accounts for the highest proportion, at 39.9%. [9] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (from September 29 to October 12, 2025), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply. A total of 4.72 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant decrease compared with the previous week. [3][14] - By variety, 3 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 1.72 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, while the issuance of other varieties was 0. [14] - By term, 140 million yuan with a 15 - year term, 480 million yuan with a 20 - year term, 1.1 billion yuan with a 30 - year term, and 3 billion yuan with a 50 - year term were issued. [14] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan of ultra - long bonds this week totals 5.77 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 1.77 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds. [19] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 568.9 billion yuan, accounting for 12.0% of the total bond trading volume. [21] - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds decreased by 685.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 1.4%. [22] Yield - The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [31] - For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 4BP, - 2BP, 2BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.23%, and 2.27%. [31] - For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 3BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 2.19%, 2.28%, 2.36%, and 2.43%. [31] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, a change of 7BP from the previous week, at the 25% quantile since 2010. [40] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 9BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 15BP, changing by 1BP and - 3BP respectively from the previous week, at the 8% and 10% quantiles since 2010. [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week (from October 5 to October 12), the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 113.97 yuan, a decrease of 0.03%. [49] - The total trading volume of 30 - year treasury bond futures was 524,800 lots (- 217,682 lots), and the open interest was 173,400 lots (1,695 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly. [49]