1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9][36]. - As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level; the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 3.8%, a decline from July. There was still deflation risk with CPI at - 0.4% and PPI at - 2.9%. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. Since late August, stocks and bonds have gradually become desensitized. Considering the sluggish economy in August, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, and there was still deflation risk. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. It is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][10]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the situation of 30 - year treasury bonds, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][11]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 233,878 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [12]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, but it decreased significantly compared with the week before last. A total of 1,386 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 161 billion yuan with a 15 - year term, 482 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 743 billion yuan with a 30 - year term were issued [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 256 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 12,544 billion yuan, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume increased by 91 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.1% [29]. 3.3.2 Yields - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 1BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 3BP respectively [36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 35BP, a change of 3BP from the week before last, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 8BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 19BP, with changes of 1BP and 4BP respectively from the week before last, at the 8% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 closed at 114.19 yuan, a decrease of 0.6%. The total trading volume was 742,500 lots (- 56,124 lots), and the open interest was 171,700 lots (an increase of 2,178 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest increased slightly [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the economic growth data for August continued to decline compared to July, some stock indices slightly corrected, and the third call between the Chinese and US presidents this year led to a bond market that first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds experiencing a small decline. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, while the variety spread widened [1][11]. - As of September 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 32BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure in August continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate in August at about 3.8%, a further decline from July. With an 8 - month CPI of - 0.4% and PPI of - 2.9%, deflation risks persisted. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and the change in macro - narrative. Considering the desensitization of stocks and bonds since late August and the still - sluggish economy in August, the bond market trading mainline is expected to shift to fundamentals, and the short - term bond market is expected to rebound from an oversold position [2][12]. - As of September 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 7BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and reasons for the bond market adjustment were similar to those of 30 - year treasury bonds, and the short - term bond market was also expected to rebound from an oversold position [3][13]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: The 8 - month economic data in August decreased compared to July, stock indices slightly corrected, and after the call between the Chinese and US presidents, the bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly falling. Trading activity slightly decreased but was still very active. The term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook**: For 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year CDB bonds, the spreads were at low historical levels. The economic downward pressure in August increased, with low GDP growth and deflation risks. The bond market adjustment was due to two reasons, and the short - term bond market was expected to rebound from an oversold position [2][3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: The balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. In terms of varieties, treasury bonds, local government bonds, and bank sub - bonds had significant issuances. In terms of terms, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced issuance plan for this week was 138.6 billion, all of which were ultra - long local government bonds [23]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 1245.3 billion, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity slightly decreased compared to the previous week, with different changes in turnover and proportion for different varieties [27]. - **Yield**: Due to the decline in economic data and the call between the Chinese and US presidents, the bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly falling. The yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds had different changes [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The variety spread widened, also with a low absolute level [47][48]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract T2503 closed at 114.8 yuan, with a decrease of 0.04%. The total trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The adjustment of the bond market is mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and the change in the macro - narrative. Considering the desensitization of stocks and bonds since late August and the entry into the window period of August economic data, it is expected that the trading mainline of the bond market will shift to the fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term after an over - decline [2][3][12] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees was released, leading to an increase in the redemption volume of some bond funds and a certain negative feedback in the bond market. In addition, inflation in August was still low, financial data was weak, and the capital side tightened marginally. The central bank announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase. The ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. In terms of trading volume, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly last week and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy in July still faced downward pressure, with the estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in July at about 4.3%, a significant decline from the growth rate in the first half of this year. In terms of inflation, the CPI in August was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9%, indicating the existence of deflation risks. The current bond market decline features stable short - term bonds and an enlarged term spread. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][12] - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the domestic economy faced downward pressure in July, and deflation risks existed. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][13] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeds 23.3 trillion yuan. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 23.3878 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds account for 26.9%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week. From September 8 to 12, 2025, a total of 200.6 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds were 35 billion yuan, local government bonds 145.6 billion yuan, etc. By term, 14 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 44.6 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, etc. [19] This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 224.2 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds are 117 billion yuan, ultra - long local government bonds 97.2 billion yuan, and ultra - long financial bonds 10 billion yuan [21] Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 1.2793 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.6% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds was 1.0486 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term local bonds was 213.3 billion yuan, accounting for 49.0% of the total local bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term policy - financial bonds was 10.6 billion yuan, accounting for 0.4% of the total policy - financial bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term government agency bonds was 700 million yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly last week [24][25] Yield - Due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees and other factors, the ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 9BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively to 2.07%, 2.18%, 2.18%, and 2.22%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 11BP, 9BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.22%, 2.26%, and 2.40%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 8BP, 10BP, and 10BP respectively to 2.30%, 2.36%, and 2.36%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 7BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.24%, 2.26%, and 2.38% [33] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, a change of 4BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% quantile since 2010 [40] - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds was 8BP, changing by 0BP and - 3BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 6% and 5% quantiles since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.27 yuan, with a decline of 0.93%. The total trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 417,000 lots (- 355,481 lots), and the open interest was 160,600 lots (17,947 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The tightening of funds during the tax period, the announcement of an additional 300 billion yuan MLF renewal in August, and the significant rise of A-shares with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high led to an obvious stock-bond seesaw effect, causing a continuous slump in ultra-long bonds [1][3][12]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a continuous game between expectations and reality, with the 10-year Treasury bond oscillating in the range of [1.65%, 1.8%]. On one hand, the weak fundamental situation supports the bond market; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" policy has alleviated investors' deflation concerns, changing the long-term macro-narrative and suppressing the bond market [2][3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The ultra-long bond trading activity decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened [1][12]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bond**: As of August 22, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 31BP, at a historically low level. The current 30-year Treasury bond term spread is still low, with limited term spread protection [2][13]. - **20-year CDB Bond**: As of August 22, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The current 20-year CDB bond variety spread is still low, with limited variety spread protection [3][14]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 22.8 trillion yuan. As of July 31, ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years totaled 22.8873 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds [15]. - By variety, Treasury bonds account for 26.5%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy financial bonds 2.0%, government agency bonds 1.9%, commercial bank subordinated bonds 0.3%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium-term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [15]. - By remaining maturity, bonds with a maturity of 14 - 18 years account for 26.5%, 18 - 25 years 26.9%, 25 - 35 years 40.9%, and over 35 years 5.7% [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra-long bonds increased significantly. A total of 306.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 83 billion yuan, local government bonds 212.3 billion yuan, and others. By maturity, 15-year bonds accounted for 40.2 billion yuan, 20-year bonds 67.8 billion yuan, 30-year bonds 198.7 billion yuan, and 50-year bonds 0 yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 122.5 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1328.9 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The yields of various ultra-long bonds rose. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by 4BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively, reaching 1.95%, 2.11%, 2.08%, and 2.16% [41]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 31BP, 2BP higher than the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [52]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20-year CDB bond and Treasury bond, and between the 20-year railway bond and Treasury bond were 3BP and 8BP respectively, 1BP and 2BP higher than the previous week, at the 5% quantile since 2010 [53]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.98 yuan, a decrease of 1.28%. The total trading volume was 1.1462 million lots, and the open interest was 156,700 lots. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market tumbled again. Despite weak July economic data, the stock market reached 3700 points, suppressing bonds and causing ultra - long bonds to plunge, with the 30 - year Treasury yield hitting a short - term high. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a game between expectations and reality. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the range of [1.65%, 1.75%]. The weak real fundamentals support the bond market, while policy changes and investor sentiment suppress it. Currently, the term spread of 30 - year Treasuries and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are both low, with limited spread protection [2][3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market tumbled. Weak economic data in July, including rapid declines in consumption and investment and negative credit growth, were overshadowed by the stock market's rise to 3700 points, which comprehensively suppressed bonds. Ultra - long bonds plunged, and the 30 - year Treasury yield reached a short - term high. Trading activity increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury**: As of August 15, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasuries was 29BP, at a historically low level. In July, the economy faced downward pressure, with GDP growth at about 4.3% and deflation risks. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the [1.65%, 1.75%] range. The current term spread is low, with limited protection [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of August 15, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasuries was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury situation, the short - term bond market faces a game between expectations and reality, and the current variety spread is low, with limited protection [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasuries were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 565 billion yuan. By variety, Treasuries were 350 billion, local government bonds were 178 billion, etc. By term, 20 - year bonds had the largest issuance at 436 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 2,953 billion. By variety, ultra - long Treasuries are 830 billion, and ultra - long local government bonds are 2,123 billion [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 13,309 billion, accounting for 14.6% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover and proportion of most varieties increasing [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market tumbled. The 30 - year Treasury yield hit a short - term high. Yields of various ultra - long bonds increased, with the 30 - year Treasury yield rising by 9BP to 2.05%, and the 20 - year CDB bond yield rising by 6BP to 2.09% [43]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 29BP, up 3BP from the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasuries, and 20 - year railway bonds and Treasuries were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 3BP and 5BP from the previous week, at the 3% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30 - year Treasury Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury futures contract TL2509 closed at 117.48 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The total trading volume was 870,600 lots, and the open interest was 151,500 lots, with trading volume increasing significantly and open interest decreasing slightly compared to the previous week [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly due to relatively loose liquidity, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with higher yields than comparable old bonds [1][3][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, while the variety spread showed mixed trends, and both were at relatively low absolute levels [1][3][4][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of August 8, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy showed resilience in June, but domestic demand was weak. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly in June. With deflation risks remaining, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of August 8, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Factors included relatively loose liquidity, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with yields 5BP - 7BP higher than comparable old bonds [1][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active [1][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][10]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 3.2.1 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of August 8, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, at a historically low level [2][11]. - In June, the domestic economy showed resilience, but domestic demand was weak. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly in June. In July, CPI was 0.0% and PPI was - 3.6%, indicating deflation risks [2][11]. - The strong stock market suppresses the bond market sentiment, but the domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamental factors supporting the bond market have not shown a turning point. The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the term spread protection is limited [2][11]. 3.2.2 20 - year CDB Bond - As of August 8, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level [3][12]. - Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the domestic economy showed resilience in June but with weak domestic demand, deflation risks remained, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The variety spread protection is limited [3][12]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of July 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 22.8873 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. Treasury bonds accounted for 26.5%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy - based financial bonds 2.0%, government agency bonds 1.9%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.3%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion. Bonds with a remaining maturity of 14 - 18 years accounted for 26.5%, 18 - 25 years 26.9%, 25 - 35 years 40.9%, and over 35 years 5.7% [13]. 3.4 Primary Market 3.4.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 4 - 8, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. A total of 140 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 82 billion yuan, local government bonds 56 billion yuan, policy - based bank bonds 0 billion yuan, government - supported agency bonds 0 billion yuan, medium - term notes 0 billion yuan, corporate bonds 2 billion yuan, directional instruments 0 billion yuan, enterprise bonds 0 billion yuan, and bank sub - debt 0 billion yuan [18]. - By term, bonds with a 15 - year term accounted for 8 billion yuan, 20 - year 2 billion yuan, 30 - year 130.1 billion yuan, and 50 - year 0 billion yuan [18]. 3.4.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 55.3 billion yuan in total. Ultra - long treasury bonds account for 35 billion yuan, ultra - long local government bonds 17.8 billion yuan, ultra - long corporate bonds 0 billion yuan, ultra - long medium - term notes 2.5 billion yuan, and ultra - long government - supported agency bonds 0 billion yuan [24]. 3.5 Secondary Market 3.5.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.119 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.5% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 917 billion yuan, accounting for 43.3% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra - long local bonds 179.8 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds 6.4 billion yuan, accounting for 0.2% of the total policy - based financial bond trading volume; and ultra - long government agency bonds 4.2 billion yuan, accounting for 27.0% of the total government agency bond trading volume [26]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume decreased by 362.7 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 2.5%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 287.1 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 3.2%; ultra - long local bonds decreased by 42.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 1.7%; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds decreased by 5.7 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.2%; ultra - long government agency bonds decreased by 3.1 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 60.7% [26][27]. 3.5.2 Yield - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly. In terms of treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.84%, 1.97%, 1.96%, and 2.00%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.96%, 2.02%, 2.06%, and 2.24%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, - 1BP, and 1BP respectively, reaching 2.01%, 2.08%, and 2.10%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 2BP, - 1BP, and 2BP respectively, reaching 2.04%, 2.08%, and 2.14% [34]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 3BP to 1.97%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 4BP to 2.00% [35]. 3.6 Spread Analysis 3.6.1 Term Spread - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, a change of 2BP from the previous week, and it was at the 10% quantile since 2010 [43]. 3.6.2 Variety Spread - Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 11BP, changing by 1BP and - 1BP respectively from the previous week, and both were at the 7% quantile since 2010 [48]. 3.7 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.32 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The total trading volume was 602,000 lots (a decrease of 181,003 lots), and the open interest was 152,600 lots (a decrease of 8,080 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly due to relatively loose funding, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with higher yields than comparable old bonds [1][3][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy showed resilience in June but with weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. With deflation risks still present, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation and deflation risks, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Factors included loose funding, increased central bank repurchase, and successful local bond issuance with higher yields on new bonds [1][10][34]. - Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP as of August 8, at a low historical level. The domestic economy had resilience in June but weak domestic demand. The estimated June GDP growth was 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. Social consumption and investment growth declined. With 7 - month CPI at 0.0% and PPI at - 3.6%, deflation risks persisted. The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the term spread protection is limited [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP as of August 8, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the variety spread protection is limited [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, 2025, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.5% (60,623 billion), local government bonds 67.5% (154,423 billion), etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.9% (93,594 billion) [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 4 - 8, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with a total of 1,400 billion issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds were 820 billion, local government bonds 560 billion, etc. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for the largest share with 1,301 billion [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 553 billion. Ultra - long treasury bonds are 350 billion, ultra - long local government bonds 178 billion, etc. [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 11,190 billion, accounting for 13.5% of all bond turnovers. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26]. - By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds had a turnover of 9,170 billion, accounting for 43.3% of all treasury bond turnovers; ultra - long local bonds 1,798 billion, accounting for 56.7% of all local bond turnovers, etc. [26]. Yield - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Yields of different types of ultra - long bonds changed. For example, in treasury bonds, 15 - year yields changed by - 1BP to 1.84%, etc. [34]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 3BP to 1.97%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 4BP to 2.00% [35]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 26BP, up 2BP from the previous week, at the 10% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week and remained at a low absolute level. The 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 5BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury bond spread was 11BP, with changes of 1BP and - 1BP respectively from the previous week, at the 7% quantile since 2010 [48]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.32 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The total trading volume was 602,000 lots (- 181,003 lots), and the open interest was 152,600 lots (- 8,080 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly. The Politburo meeting mentioned "promoting capacity governance in key industries", the July PMI was only 49.3, and the announcement of a 6% VAT on the interest of newly issued government bonds starting from August 8th triggered a wave of bond buying [1][4][12][39]. - As of August 1, the spread between the 30 - year government bond and the 10 - year government bond was 24BP, at a historically low level. The 6 - month domestic GDP growth rate was about 5.2%, but the growth rates of social consumption and investment sub - items declined significantly, and there was still a risk of deflation. The short - term market panic has passed, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - As of August 1, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year government bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year government bond situation, the short - term market panic has passed, but the spread protection is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly last week. The Politburo meeting's statement was more restrained, the July PMI was low, and the VAT announcement on bond interest triggered a bond - buying wave. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Government Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year government bond and the 10 - year government bond was at a low level. The domestic economy still faced downward pressure, and the short - term market panic has passed, but the term spread protection was limited [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year government bond was at an extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year government bond, the short - term market panic has passed, but the variety spread protection was limited [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and government bonds were the main varieties, and the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly. A total of 1,722 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. By variety, government bonds were 350 billion, local government bonds were 1,262 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 263 billion, 20 - year bonds were 264 billion, etc. [20]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 1,380 billion, including 820 billion for ultra - long government bonds and 560 billion for ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active. The trading volume was 14,817 billion, accounting for 16.0% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly last week. Yields of government bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees. For example, the 30 - year government bond yield changed by - 2BP to 1.95% [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year government bonds was 24BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and the government bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and the government bond changed by 2BP and 6BP respectively [53]. 30 - year Government Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year government bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 119.04 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The trading volume was 78.30 million lots, and the open interest was 16.06 million lots, both increasing slightly compared with the previous week [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The official unveiling of a super hydropower project drove up resource stocks, with the A-share market reaching 3,600 points, suppressing the bond market. The introduction of anti-involution policies led to the limit-up of multiple commodity futures prices, reducing investors' concerns about deflation [1][4][12][35]. - As of July 25, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 24BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low position. Although the stock market's strength suppresses bond market sentiment, the domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamentals supporting the bond market have not yet shown an inflection point. The actual effect of "anti-involution" remains to be tested. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the term spread and variety spread protection for 30-year treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds are limited [2][3][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The super hydropower project and anti-involution policies influenced the market. Last week, ultra-long bond trading activity increased significantly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][4][12]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of July 25, the 30-year - 10-year treasury bond spread was 24BP, historically low. In June, the domestic economy showed resilience but weak domestic demand. GDP grew about 5.2% year-on-year, up 0.1% from May, still above the annual target, but the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined. CPI was 0.1%, PPI -3.6%, with deflation risks. The stock market suppresses bond sentiment, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the "anti-involution" effect is uncertain. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of July 25, the 20-year CDB - 20-year treasury bond spread was 2BP, historically extremely low. The economic situation in June was similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds. The stock market suppresses bond sentiment, the economic downward pressure remains, and the "anti-involution" effect is uncertain. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][14]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 222,528 billion, accounting for 14.5% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 2,950 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 830 billion, local government bonds 1,810 billion, etc. By term, 15-year bonds were 618 billion, 20-year bonds 744 billion, and 30-year bonds 1,588 billion [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 1,719 billion yuan, including 350 billion in ultra-long treasury bonds, 1,262 billion in ultra-long local government bonds, etc. [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 14,782 billion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of all bond turnover. By variety, ultra-long treasury bonds had a turnover of 11,654 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 2,541 billion yuan, etc. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [28]. Yield - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The yields of various ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed by 6BP, 9BP, 8BP, and 7BP to 1.87%, 1.99%, 1.97%, and 2.02% respectively [35]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra-long bond term spread widened, but the absolute level was low. The 30-year - 10-year treasury bond spread was 24BP, up 2BP from the previous week, at the 8% percentile since 2010 [47]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra-long bond variety spread narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 2BP and 1BP from the previous week, at the 3% percentile since 2010 [50]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures variety TL2509 closed at 117.95 yuan, a decline of 2.08%. The total trading volume was 781,200 lots (342,890 lots), and the open interest was 160,200 lots (10,208 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受预期和情绪影响，本周债市暴跌，一是超级水电站项目揭牌带动资源股暴涨，A股站上3600点压制债市，二是反内卷政策出台使投资者对通缩担忧下降 [1][4][12][35] -当前国内经济有下行压力，债市基本面未现拐点，“反内卷”效果待检验，1.7%以上的10年期国债风险初步释放，但30年国债期限利差和20年国开债品种利差偏低，保护度有限 [2][3][13][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review -本周债市因预期和情绪暴跌，超级水电站项目和反内卷政策影响市场 [1][4][12] -上周超长债交投活跃度大幅上升，期限利差走阔、品种利差缩窄 [1][4][12] Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook -30年国债：截至7月25日，30年与10年国债利差24BP，处于历史偏低水平，经济有韧性但内需弱，通缩风险依存 [2][13] -20年国开债：截至7月25日，20年国开债与国债利差2BP，处于历史极低位置，经济情况与30年国债类似 [3][14] Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview -截至6月30日，剩余期限超14年的超长债余额22.2528万亿，占全部债券余额14.5%，地方政府债和国债是主要品种 [15] -按品种，国债、地方政府债等各有占比；按剩余期限，25 - 35年品种占比最高 [15] Primary Market Weekly Issuance -上周（2025.7.7 - 2025.7.11）超长债发行量小幅增加，共发行2950亿元 [20] -分品种和期限，各有不同发行量 [20] This Week's Scheduled Issuance -本周已公布超长债发行计划共1719亿，涉及多种债券品种 [26] Secondary Market Trading Volume -上周超长债交投活跃，成交额14782亿，占比15.0%，各品种成交额及占比有差异 [28] -与上上周相比，超长债交投活跃度大幅上升，各品种成交额和占比均增加 [28] Yield -本周债市暴跌，各期限国债、国开债、地方债、铁道债收益率有变动 [35] -代表性个券中，30年国债活跃券和20年国开债活跃券收益率有变动 [36] Spread Analysis -期限利差：上周超长债期限利差走阔，绝对水平偏低，30年 - 10年国债利差24BP，较上上周变动2BP [47] -品种利差：上周超长债品种利差缩窄，绝对水平偏低，20年国开债和国债利差、20年铁道债和国债利差分较上上周变动 - 2BP和 - 1BP [50] 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures -上周30年国债期货主力品种TL2509收117.95元，增幅 - 2.08%，成交量大幅上升、持仓量小幅上升 [52]