Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints - The economic data from January to February was positive, with the industrial added - value in the production sector rising to 6.3%, the year - on - year growth of fixed asset investment turning positive, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods rising to 2.8%, and exports growing by 19.2%. The domestic economic growth momentum improved. With the volatile Middle East situation causing oil prices to rise and the A - share market plummeting, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall [1][4][10][33]. - The probability of a recent bond market correction is high. Factors include the surge in crude oil due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the good economic growth rate at the beginning of the year reducing the need for significant monetary policy easing, and the reduction in the central bank's bond - buying scale due to the low absolute level of interest rates [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Ultra - long Bond Review - Economic data from January to February was positive, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4][10]. 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of March 20, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 47BP, at a historically low level. The recent bond market correction probability is high, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. 20 - year China Development Bank Bonds - As of March 20, the spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically low position. The recent bond market correction probability is high, and the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 1,655,081 billion, accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13]. 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (March 16 - 22, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased. A total of 1,532 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 1,461 billion yuan, and government - supported institutional bonds accounted for 50 billion yuan. By term, 210 billion yuan had a 15 - year term, 836 billion yuan had a 20 - year term, and 486 billion yuan had a 30 - year term [18]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,288 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [22]. 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 9,826 billion yuan, accounting for 9.9% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [24]. Yield - Due to positive economic data and other factors, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [33]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level [43][44]. 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2606 closed at 110.67 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%. The total trading volume was 384,400 lots (a decrease of 86,770 lots), and the open interest was 134,400 lots (an increase of 3,697 lots) [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the released February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was remarkable, and the US stated that the Iran conflict would end soon, making the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined again, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 47BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated December GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.5%, a 0.4% increase from November. The manufacturing PMI in January and February dropped to 49.3 and 49 respectively, indicating a weak start to the year. The deflation risk continued to ease. The report believes that the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future due to factors such as rising domestic inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying scale. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year Treasury bond was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury bond situation, the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future. However, considering the bond market is still in a large oscillation range, the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was very good, and the US's statement on the Iran conflict made the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of March 13, the 30 - 10 spread was 47BP, at a historically low level. December economic downward pressure eased, with GDP growth rate estimated at 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.4% increase from November. January and February manufacturing PMI dropped, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is more likely to correct due to rising inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of March 13, the 20 - year CDB - Treasury spread was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar economic situation as the 30 - year Treasury bond. The bond market is more likely to correct, but the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 1,655,081 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.5%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13]. 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased, totaling 474 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance volume dropped significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds issued 320 billion, local government bonds 154 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds issued 30 billion, 20 - year 16 billion, 30 - year 107 billion, and 50 - year 320 billion [18]. - **This Week's Scheduled Issuance**: The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,442 billion. Ultra - long local government bonds account for 1,436 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes 6 billion [24]. 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 11,303 billion, accounting for 11.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds accounted for 38.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds 45.0% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 532 billion, and the proportion increased by 1.3% [27]. - **Yield**: Due to factors such as inflation data and international situation, the bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 5BP, 6BP, 9BP, and 9BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.31%, 2.37%, and 2.55%. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [39]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds remained at 47BP, a 2BP change from the week before last, at the 44% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The spreads of 20 - year CDB bonds and railway bonds against Treasury bonds were 13BP and 15BP respectively, a - 1BP change from the week before last, at the 11% and 10% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2606 closed at 111.06 yuan, with an increase of - 1.53%. The total trading volume was 47.12 million lots (114,506 lots), and the open interest was 13.07 million lots (- 2,023 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest decreased slightly [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week during the Two Sessions, the GDP growth target for 2026 was set at [4.5% - 5%]. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and increased A - share volatility. However, the bond market was mainly sideways throughout the week, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][4][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of March 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economic downward pressure in December was alleviated. The estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in December was about 4.5%, a 0.4% increase from November. The manufacturing PMI in January and February dropped to 49.3 and 49 respectively, indicating a weak start to the year. In terms of inflation, the CPI in January was 0.2% and the PPI was - 1.4%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The short - term spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of March 6, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically low position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. Considering that the bond market is still in a large oscillation range, the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - During the Two Sessions last week, the GDP growth target for 2026 was set at [4.5% - 5%]. The Middle East geopolitical conflict escalated, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices and increased A - share volatility. The bond market was mainly sideways throughout the week, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [11]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of March 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure in December was alleviated, with an estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate of about 4.5%, a 0.4% increase from November. The manufacturing PMI in January and February dropped to 49.3 and 49 respectively. The CPI in January was 0.2% and the PPI was - 1.4%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The short - term spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of March 6, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically low position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. Considering that the bond market is still in a large oscillation range, the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 1,655,081 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties of ultra - long bonds. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 27.5% (69,653 billion), local government bonds accounted for 67.3% (170,215 billion), and other varieties accounted for relatively small proportions [14]. - By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion. Bonds with a remaining maturity of 14 - 18 years accounted for 24.0% (60,570 billion), 18 - 25 years accounted for 29.1% (73,537 billion), 25 - 35 years accounted for 41.4% (104,696 billion), and over 35 years accounted for 5.6% (14,055 billion) [14]. 3.4 Primary Market 3.4.1 Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased last week. From March 2 to March 8, 2026, a total of 2,237 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant increase compared to the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 340 billion, local government bonds accounted for 1,887 billion, and other varieties had little or no issuance. By maturity, 759 billion yuan of bonds with a 15 - year maturity were issued, 419 billion yuan with a 20 - year maturity, 1,059 billion yuan with a 30 - year maturity, and no 50 - year bonds were issued [19]. 3.4.2 This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 474 billion yuan. Among them, ultra - long treasury bonds account for 320 billion, and ultra - long local government bonds account for 154 billion [25]. 3.5 Secondary Market 3.5.1 Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 10,771 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 6,849 billion yuan, accounting for 30.7% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra - long local bonds accounted for 3,805 billion yuan, accounting for 58.8% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra - long policy - financial bonds accounted for 55 billion yuan, accounting for 0.1% of the total policy - financial bond trading volume; ultra - long government agency bonds accounted for 12 billion yuan, accounting for 24.3% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 4,582 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.1% [27]. 3.5.2 Yield - During the Two Sessions last week, the GDP growth target for 2026 was set at [4.5% - 5%]. The Middle East geopolitical conflict escalated, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices and increased A - share volatility. The bond market was mainly sideways throughout the week, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 2BP, - 2BP, - 1BP, and - 2BP respectively, reaching 2.11%, 2.24%, 2.28%, and 2.46%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 3BP, - 2BP, - 1BP, and - 2BP respectively, reaching 2.24%, 2.39%, 2.42%, and 2.60%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 1BP, 0BP, and 0BP respectively, reaching 2.32%, 2.48%, and 2.49%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 3BP, - 1BP, and 1BP respectively, reaching 2.25%, 2.41%, and 2.49% [35]. 3.5.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds remained at 45BP, a 1BP change from the week before last, at the 42% quantile since 2010 [42]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 16BP, with changes of 0BP and - 1BP respectively from the week before last, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [47]. 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2606, closed at 112.78 yuan, an increase of 0.63%. The total trading volume of 30 - year treasury bond futures was 356,700 lots (10,774 lots), and the open interest was 132,700 lots (- 1,416 lots). The trading volume increased slightly compared to the week before last, and the open interest decreased slightly [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market first declined and then rose last week, and ultra - long bonds fell again. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][4][11]. - In March, the bond market is expected to first decline and then rise. The economic stability since Q4 2024 was mainly due to the central government's leverage - increasing support. In Q4 2025, there was no additional issuance of treasury bonds, and the short - term government support for the economy weakened. The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 dropped to the lowest level in the post - pandemic era, and the Chinese economy is still under pressure. Meanwhile, the Party Central Committee attaches more importance to high - quality development in 2026, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in the total economic volume has been adjusted down. On the other hand, during the Two Sessions, policy expectations are optimistic, the A - share spring rally continues, and the current absolute level of interest rates is low, so the stock - bond seesaw effect is expected to strengthen [2][3][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - After the Spring Festival, with a record - high number of travelers during the holiday and the release of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" in the first week after the holiday, the A - share market continued to rebound. The bond market first declined and then rose, and ultra - long bonds fell again. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly last week, but it was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][4][11]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of February 27, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 44BP, at a relatively low level in history. The economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.4% increase from November. In January, CPI was 0.2% and PPI was - 1.4%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. It is expected that the bond market will first decline and then rise in March. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of February 27, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at an extremely low level in history. The economic situation and inflation data are similar to those of 30 - year treasury bonds. It is also expected that the bond market will first decline and then rise in March. Considering that the bond market is still in a volatile range, the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of February 28, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 1,655,081 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 27.5%, local government bonds accounted for 67.3%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion [14]. 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (February 23 - March 1, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased. A total of 1,902 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume increased significantly. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, with an amount of 1,902 billion yuan. By term, 315 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 271 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 1,316 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [19]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 1,442 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 6,189 billion yuan, accounting for 10.5% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 5,083 billion yuan, accounting for 31.7% of the total treasury bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds was 1,009 billion yuan, accounting for 42.1% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, with the trading volume decreasing by 4,736 billion yuan and the proportion decreasing by 2.5% [27][29]. - **Yield**: After the Spring Festival, the bond market first declined and then rose, and ultra - long bonds fell again. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 1BP, 4BP, 5BP, and 4BP respectively to 2.12%, 2.27%, 2.29%, and 2.48%. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02 changed by 1.3BP to 2.24%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 3.02BP to 2.25% [40][41]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 44BP, a - 1BP change from the previous week, at the 45% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 14BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 17BP, with changes of 0BP and - 3BP respectively from the previous week, at the 12% and 10% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2606 of 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 1112.07 yuan, with an increase of - 0.66%. The total trading volume was 34.59 million lots (162,994 lots), and the open interest was 13.42 million lots (32,541 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 1 month inflation continued to improve, with CPI dropping to 0.2% and PPI rising to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased [1][10][36]. - The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. In Q4 2025, there was no additional treasury bond issuance, and the short - term government support for the economy weakened. The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 reached the lowest level in the post - pandemic era, and the economy is still under pressure. Also, during the Spring Festival, there is a data vacuum from the statistics bureau, the current interest rate is at a low level, and the A - share market has a strong performance in spring, so the stock - bond seesaw effect is expected to strengthen [2][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Ultra - long Bond Review - 1 month inflation continued to improve. CPI dropped to 0.2% and PPI rose to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased [1][10][36]. - In the week before the Spring Festival, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly increased and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10][3]. 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of February 13, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated GDP growth rate at about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. 20 - year China Development Bank Bonds - As of February 13, the spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically low position. The economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated GDP growth rate at about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.8 trillion. As of January 31, the ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 248,306 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds account for 27.9%, local government bonds 66.8%, policy - based financial bonds 1.8%, government agency bonds 1.6%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.4%, corporate bonds 0.3%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.0%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - By remaining term, 14 - 18 years (inclusive) account for 24.6%, 18 - 25 years (inclusive) 29.0%, 25 - 35 years (inclusive) 40.7%, and over 35 years 5.7% [13]. 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - In the week before the Spring Festival (February 9 - 13, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds was low, with a total of 1,639 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds were 320 billion, local government bonds 1,634 billion, policy - based bank bonds 0 billion, government - supported agency bonds 0 billion, medium - term notes 5 billion, corporate bonds 0 billion, directional instruments 0 billion, enterprise bonds 0 billion, and bank sub - debt 0 billion [18]. - By term, 15 - year bonds were 439 billion, 20 - year bonds 587 billion, 30 - year bonds 613 billion, and 50 - year bonds 0 billion [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 3,805 billion. There are 0 billion in ultra - long treasury bonds, 3,805 billion in ultra - long local government bonds, 0 billion in ultra - long corporate bonds, and 0 billion in ultra - long medium - term notes [23]. 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - In the week before the Spring Festival, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 10,925 billion, accounting for 13% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 6,699 billion, accounting for 32.7% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra - long local bonds 3,980 billion, accounting for 63.0% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds 58 billion, accounting for 0.2% of the total policy - based financial bond trading volume; ultra - long government agency bonds 97 billion, accounting for 57.7% of the total government agency bond trading volume [25][27]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly increased compared with the previous week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 281 billion, and the proportion increased by 0.8%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 1,295 billion, and the proportion decreased by 6.5%; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds increased by 1,527 billion, and the proportion increased by 9.7%; the trading volume of ultra - long policy - based financial bonds increased by 21 billion, and the proportion increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra - long government agency bonds increased by 60 billion, and the proportion increased by 30.1% [27]. Yield - 1 month inflation continued to improve. CPI dropped to 0.2% and PPI rose to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by -1BP, -1BP, -1BP, and 0BP to 2.11%, 2.23%, 2.24%, and 2.43% respectively. For China Development Bank bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by -1BP, -1BP, -1BP, and 0BP to 2.25%, 2.37%, 2.38%, and 2.58% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, and -1BP to 2.30%, 2.45%, and 2.46% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by -2BP, -3BP, and -3BP to 2.29%, 2.42%, and 2.46% respectively [36]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02 changed by -0.4BP to 2.22%, and the yield of the 20 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by -1.5BP to 2.22% [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 33% quantile since 2010 [45]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds was 14BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 20BP, changing by 0BP and -1BP respectively from the previous week, at the 12% and 14% quantiles since 2010 [49]. 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2603 closed at 112.84 yuan, an increase of 0.24%. The total trading volume of 30 - year treasury bond futures was 359,300 lots (-144,347 lots), and the open interest was 71,600 lots (-45,948 lots). The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 1 - month PMI dropped significantly to 49.3, the central bank's treasury bond trading in January increased to 100 billion, precious metals and A - shares fluctuated greatly, the bond market rose sharply again, and the ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, the term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of February 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 44BP, at a relatively low historical level. For the 20 - year CDB bond, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The probability of a near - term bond market correction is high due to factors such as weakened government support and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The 1 - month PMI in January dropped to 49.3, the central bank's treasury bond trading increased to 100 billion, precious metals and A - shares fluctuated, the bond market rose, and the ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. Trading was very active, the term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of February 6, the spread was 44BP. The economy's downward pressure eased in December, with a GDP growth rate of about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9% in December. The bond market is likely to correct due to weakened government support and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of February 6, the spread was 14BP. Similar economic data as the 30 - year treasury bond. The bond market is likely to correct, and the variety spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][14]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.8 trillion. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main ones. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (February 2 - 6, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds soared to 321.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [20]. 3.2.2 This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 159.7 billion yuan, mainly ultra - long local government bonds [24]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 1064.4 billion yuan, accounting for 12.2% of all bond turnovers. Compared with the previous week, the turnover and proportion increased [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed. Representative individual bonds also had yield changes [35][36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It narrowed last week, with the 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread at 44BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 31st percentile since 2010 [44]. - **Variety Spread**: It widened last week. The 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury bond spread was 21BP, at the 12th and 16th percentiles since 2010 respectively [48]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2603 closed at 112.57 yuan, up 0.58%. The total trading volume was 503,700 lots (76,441 lots), and the open interest was 117,600 lots (- 17,239 lots). The trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors that the central bank would introduce a liquidity management tool for overnight interest rates, the gold price plunged from a high level, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active, and both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and policies, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors of a central bank liquidity management tool, the gold price plunged, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bond**: As of January 30, the 30-10 spread was 46BP, at a low historical level. The economic downward pressure in December was alleviated, with a GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a bond market correction in February is higher due to factors such as the weakening government support and the expected strengthening of the stock-bond seesaw effect. The 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20-year CDB Bond**: As of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the economic situation in December improved, and the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher. The variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 24.8 trillion. As of January 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 248,306 billion, accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 26 - 30, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged to 2,525 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume increased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30-year bonds had the highest issuance volume [18]. Primary Market - This Week's Pending Issuance - This week's announced ultra-long bond issuance plan totals 3,173 billion yuan, including 320 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds, 2,838 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds, 15 billion yuan of ultra-long corporate bonds, and no ultra-long medium-term notes [22]. Secondary Market - Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,113 billion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bonds. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week, with a decrease in the trading volume and proportion of ultra-long treasury bonds, an increase in those of ultra-long local bonds, and decreases in those of ultra-long policy financial bonds and ultra-long government agency bonds [25]. Secondary Market - Yield - Last week, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed to 2.14%, 2.26%, 2.29%, and 2.47% respectively [36]. Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30-10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a -1BP change from the previous week, at the 38% percentile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20-year CDB bond and treasury bond and between the 20-year railway bond and treasury bond were 14BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -1BP from the previous week, at the 11% and 14% percentiles since 2010 [44]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, T2603, closed at 111.92 yuan, a -0.34% increase. The total trading volume was 427,200 lots (-35,804 lots), and the open interest was 134,800 lots (-5,688 lots), with both the trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly compared with the previous week [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The bond market rebounded slightly last week due to the central bank's 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, a 25BP reduction in the structural monetary policy tool rate, good December import - export growth, weak December financial data, consecutive negative growth in household loans for three months, and the A - share market correction [1][4][11][39] - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. With no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in government bond financing growth, the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, in 2026, the Party Central Committee emphasizes high - quality development more, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregates has decreased. Additionally, the absolute interest rate level is low, there is heavy selling pressure in treasury bond futures, and investor sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13] - The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds reached a new high this week and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation and reduced the structural monetary policy tool rate by 25BP. December import - export growth was good, but December financial data was weak, with household loans in negative growth for the third consecutive month. Along with the A - share correction, the bond market rebounded slightly. The trading activity of long - term bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of long - term bonds widened [1][4][11] Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic and policy factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13] Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding long - term bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the issuance of long - term bonds dropped sharply to 83.7 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 32 billion yuan, local government bonds were 51.7 billion yuan, and other varieties had zero issuance. By term, the 30 - year variety had the largest issuance [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan for this week is 102.2 billion yuan, including 10.12 billion yuan of long - term local government bonds and 1 billion yuan of long - term medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, long - term bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 879.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a decrease in turnover and proportion in most varieties, except for an increase in long - term local government bonds and long - term government agency bonds [27][28] Yield - Due to various factors, the bond market rebounded slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to different extents. Representative individual bonds also had corresponding yield changes [39][40] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a 4BP change from the previous week, at the 35th percentile since 2010 [46] - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 1BP and 2BP from the previous week, at the 14th and 20th percentiles since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.16 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 542,700 lots (- 18,010 lots), and the open interest was 140,000 lots (- 8,274 lots). Both trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous week [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced buying bonds worth 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale the same as in October. The open - market had a large - scale net withdrawal, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market had a strong start with both volume and price rising. The bond market first declined and then rose, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][4][11]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 9, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a relatively low historical level. For the 20 - year CDB bond, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic downward pressure increased in November, and the deflation risk continued to ease in December. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to the central government's leverage - increasing support. Considering no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in the financing growth rate of government bonds in Q4, the domestic economy in Q4 was still under pressure. Also, the Party Central Committee attaches more importance to high - quality development in 2026. With the low absolute level of interest rates, the sharp rise of the A - share market at the beginning of the year, and the large selling pressure of treasury bond futures, investors' sentiment was generally weak. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond will fluctuate in a narrow range [2][3][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank bought 50 billion yuan of bonds in November, with the scale the same as in October. The open - market had a large - scale net withdrawal, inflation continued to warm up in December, the A - share market had a strong start, the bond market first declined and then rose, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure increased in November (GDP growth rate was about 4.1% year - on - year, down 0.1% from October). In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 9, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond, considering economic and market factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 24,432.9 billion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased sharply, reaching 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds, 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds, and 0.5 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds all changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 42BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 27% quantile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 14BP and 18BP respectively, up 0BP and 1BP from the previous week, at the 12% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 110.87 yuan, a decline of - 0.48%. The total trading volume was 560,700 lots, and the open interest was 148,200 lots. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared with the previous week [54].