Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market had a weak rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling. A-shares had a volume - shrinking consolidation, giving the bond market a chance to catch a breath, but the bond market was still weak overall. It may be considered that the bond market has bottomed out only when its trend becomes insensitive to the stock market. In terms of operations, it is not advisable to short. Cautious investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors who want to bottom - fish can enter with a small position and increase the interval between purchases [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and closed up across the board. Most spot bond yields declined. The central bank had a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, which were renewed in full the previous day. Affected by the tax period, the liquidity tightened marginally, and DR001 rose to 1.47% [1] 2. Intraday News - Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, and stabilizing market expectations. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 25.59 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which the securities trading stamp duty was 9.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [2] 3. Market Data - **Contract Prices and Holdings**: On August 19, 2025, the prices of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 102.328, 105.535, 108.05, and 116.46 respectively, with changes of 0.026, 0.07, 0.03, and 0.19 compared to the previous day. The holdings of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts decreased by 4340, 6542, 7101, and 1095 hands respectively [4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL (CTD) had different changes. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts also changed, with TF and T increasing and TS and TL decreasing [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volumes**: DR001, DR007, and DR014 increased by 0.047, 0.0346, and 0.0505 respectively. The trading volumes of DR001 decreased by 118.64502 billion yuan, while those of DR007 and DR014 increased by 1.749036 billion yuan and 0.304216 billion yuan respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown significant signs of recovery since March 12, following a period of substantial adjustment and negative sentiment that peaked on March 11 [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The bond market experienced a strong rebound on March 12, with the China Bond Index ending a six-day decline and achieving a bottom rebound [5][6]. - As of March 12, the average increase for medium- to long-term pure bond funds reached 0.08%, while the China Bond Index rebounded by 0.16% [6]. - The bond market had faced considerable adjustments earlier in the year, with the China Bond Index recording a maximum drawdown of 1.83% on March 11, marking the largest drawdown in nearly four years [9][10]. Investor Behavior - Some institutional investors chose to "cut losses" on March 11, unable to tolerate ongoing declines, which resulted in significant redemptions from several funds [2][7]. - A specific institution that invested heavily in a low-risk credit bond fund faced nearly a 1% loss within a quarter, prompting their exit just before the market rebound [7]. Market Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that the bond market has largely adjusted, with some assets now presenting attractive value for investment [1][14]. - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment has reached a normal range, with short-term and credit bond yields rising by approximately 40-60 basis points, while long-term rates increased by 20-25 basis points [13]. - The future trajectory of the bond market is expected to be influenced by fundamental economic conditions and market liquidity [13][14]. Investment Strategy - Current market conditions may provide a favorable opportunity for investment, with suggestions to adopt a contrarian approach during periods of volatility [16]. - It is recommended to focus on short-term and credit bonds, which are perceived to have higher value after recent adjustments [17].