Market Overview - The A-share market opened weakly with over 4500 stocks in the red, as of 9:43 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.86% [1] - The market was impacted by news of tariffs, with President Trump signing an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, leading to a significant drop in the Nasdaq by over 2% [1] Sector Performance Chemical Sector - The chemical sector remained active, with Huatai hitting the daily limit, and Hengguang shares rising over 10%. Other companies like Dir Chemical, Jiangtian Chemical, and others also saw gains [2] - Sulfuric acid prices increased to 596.96 RMB/ton, up 66% from 359.01 RMB/ton on February 7, and up 290% year-on-year. Analysts predict a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to expected fiscal policy boosts in 2025 [2] Dairy Sector - The dairy sector showed strength, with Huangshi Group hitting the daily limit and other companies like Sunshine Dairy and Knight Dairy also rising [3] - A recent announcement from the State Administration for Market Regulation encourages the use of raw cow or sheep milk in infant formula production, which is expected to benefit the dairy sector as demand is anticipated to rise due to supportive policies [3] Institutional Insights Dongwu Securities - Dongwu Securities suggests focusing on sectors with strong first-quarter performance, including upstream non-ferrous metals, organic silicon, and certain chemicals, as well as the photovoltaic industry and consumer sectors [4] Huaan Securities - Huaan Securities indicates that market rotation remains the main theme, with a focus on undervalued sectors such as banks, insurance, and policy-driven industries like pharmaceuticals and automobiles [5] Dongfang Securities - Dongfang Securities notes that while stock indices may experience limited downward and upward movement, the medium-term outlook remains positive despite current challenges in the banking sector due to falling interest rates [6]

尽管2025年的3月仍未完全翻篇，但市场关于"4月决断"的讨论，已经层出不穷。 和春季躁动类似，4月决断也被认为是A股日历效应的一种体现。那么，当我们在说4月决断的时候，究竟说的 是什么？ 4月决断首先代表的是市场的一种变化。参考东吴证券的报告，2-3月市场整体处于数据真空期，这一阶段上市 公司业绩报告尚未密集披露，导致定价缺乏基本面锚点，基于行业景气的交易可能会因为缺乏弹性而显得吸引 力不足。在此期间，具备产业叙事想象力、关注远期基本面、且符合活跃资金偏好的主题板块凭借高赔率的博 弈特征成为市场主线。而进入4月，上市公司开始集中披露业绩报告，同时两会和政治局会议召开对全年经济 发展作出指引，市场会基于微观企业盈利和宏观政策基调对股价进行修正。 因此，以"小盘成长指数"和"沪深300指数"分别代表"主题交易"和"基本面组合"，会发现在过去10年中，2-3月 主题交易的胜率高达80%，而4月仅有20%。 类似4月行情由基本面主导的观点，其他报告也有提及。比如兴业证券发布于2024年3月的报告中也曾通过数据 统计得出结论，4月是全年中业绩对股价表现解释力最强的月份。 除此之外，"4月决断"还被认为对全年投资有指引 ...