Core Insights - The article highlights a stable trading environment for thematic investments, with a notable surge in stablecoins and PCB themes, while new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and rare earth permanent magnet themes are experiencing a pullback. There is optimism for technology-related themes to present new investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Thematic Trading Overview - The average daily trading volume for hot themes from June 16 to 20 was 432 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.35%. Overall, the trading heat for themes has remained stable since June [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with stablecoin themes leading the market due to concentrated catalysts, while oil and gas development themes remain active amid Middle East turmoil [1] Group 2: Digital Currency - The establishment of an international operating center for digital RMB was proposed at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to facilitate cross-border trade and promote the internationalization of the RMB [2] - The introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to accelerate the development of the digital currency industry, making stablecoins a vital tool for cross-border payments and corporate financing [2] - Recommendations include focusing on financial innovations in digital currency and cross-border payments, particularly for blockchain and cross-border clearing system providers [2] Group 3: AI Intelligence - Major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are launching AI intelligence products, with Manus allowing general user registration [2] - AI intelligence is seen as a complete end-to-end solution that enhances data utilization and accelerates the development of vertical applications, becoming a key catalyst for the commercialization of AI applications [2] - Recommendations include investing in internet giants with capital expenditure and user advantages, as well as companies benefiting from increased demand for computing power [2] Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to improve social security and public services, aiming to boost domestic consumption and stimulate service consumption potential [3] - The focus is on upgrading bulk consumption and leveraging emerging consumption trends, with recommendations for sectors like education, childcare, and domestic brands in cosmetics and trendy toys [3] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations to encourage mergers and acquisitions, leading to a significant increase in the number of major asset restructuring plans since 2025, which is 3.3 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - The total value of completed major asset restructuring transactions has exceeded 200 billion yuan, which is 11.6 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - Recommendations focus on quality asset restructuring in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and high-end equipment, as well as professional integration in energy resources and public services [4]

尽管2025年的3月仍未完全翻篇，但市场关于"4月决断"的讨论，已经层出不穷。 和春季躁动类似，4月决断也被认为是A股日历效应的一种体现。那么，当我们在说4月决断的时候，究竟说的 是什么？ 4月决断首先代表的是市场的一种变化。参考东吴证券的报告，2-3月市场整体处于数据真空期，这一阶段上市 公司业绩报告尚未密集披露，导致定价缺乏基本面锚点，基于行业景气的交易可能会因为缺乏弹性而显得吸引 力不足。在此期间，具备产业叙事想象力、关注远期基本面、且符合活跃资金偏好的主题板块凭借高赔率的博 弈特征成为市场主线。而进入4月，上市公司开始集中披露业绩报告，同时两会和政治局会议召开对全年经济 发展作出指引，市场会基于微观企业盈利和宏观政策基调对股价进行修正。 因此，以"小盘成长指数"和"沪深300指数"分别代表"主题交易"和"基本面组合"，会发现在过去10年中，2-3月 主题交易的胜率高达80%，而4月仅有20%。 类似4月行情由基本面主导的观点，其他报告也有提及。比如兴业证券发布于2024年3月的报告中也曾通过数据 统计得出结论，4月是全年中业绩对股价表现解释力最强的月份。 除此之外，"4月决断"还被认为对全年投资有指引 ...