12月首个交易日，银行板块低开高走，午后单边向上。截至收盘，A股42只银行股37股收涨，厦门银行 领涨逾5%，张家港行涨超4%，齐鲁银行涨超3%，南京银行、沪农商行等4股涨逾2%。全市场规模最大 的银行ETF（512800）场内价格收涨0.72%，站上5日、10日线，全天成交额10.8亿元，环比小幅放量。 | 分时 零日 1分 * 绿合屏 F9 前震权 超级盘加 面式 工具 @ (2 > | | | 银行ETF ① | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800.SH 银行ETF] 2025/12/01 收 0.842 幅0.72%(0.006) 开0.833 高 0.84回 | 0.842 +0.006 +0.72% | | 512800 | | | MAS 0.8411 MA10 0.8411 MA20 0.8411 MA60 0.8227 MA120 0.0411 MA2602 T = | SSE CNY 15:00:17 闭市 查看L2全景 | | | 第二十二 | | 115017 | 净值走势宝中让银行ET | ਟੇਸ਼ੇ 13.34% 120日 | | ...

她进一步预判第三阶段的爆发性行情："第三阶段必然是财富效应引发的全面重配置浪潮——居民储蓄 搬家、国内资产配置重构、全球资金重新回流中国市场。这一趋势的形成并非偶然，而是满足了国际级 泡沫行情的三大核心条件：低利率环境、明确的赚钱效应，以及其他主要大国市场缺乏优质投资机 会。" 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，半夏投资创始人李蓓主题演讲《从小确幸到大牛市》。 李蓓表示，富人面临"财富无处安放、安全难有保障"的资产荒 。房地产作为消费品已体现出价值，作 为投资品租金回报依然没有足够的吸引力 。美国高财政赤字让美元长期价值遭疑，美股高估值+AI泡沫 隐忧凸显。美元相关资产不确定性上升，结汇比例明显提升，说明实业不再一致看好美元资产 。金价 已明显高估，俄罗斯央行卖黄金是重要信号。 A股港股方面，龙头企业寒冬开花利润率启动回升，正是核心指数ROE能够筑底、无明显向下风险的关 键原因。没有一个春天不会到来，寒冬里开出的花必将绽放为满园春色，龙头企业盈利弹性与估 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The infrastructure REITs are expected to expand further, promoting high-quality development in the REITs market. The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to broaden the scope of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities [5][13] - The REITs market is experiencing a decline in trading volume and value, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 19.83% in trading volume and 5.86% in trading value [27][29] - Despite recent declines, the REITs sector is anticipated to benefit from lower bond market interest rates and increased policy support, enhancing its attractiveness as a high-dividend, low-risk asset class [4][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index for week 48 of 2025 was 809.07, up 6.07% year-on-year but down 0.14% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1040.34, up 12.01% year-on-year but down 0.08% month-on-month [6][15][20] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 6.96%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 31.93%, resulting in an excess return of -24.97% [15][20] Weekly Performance - In week 48, the weekly performance of various REITs sectors showed that affordable housing REITs increased by 1.04%, while other sectors like environmental, highway, industrial park, warehousing logistics, energy, and consumer REITs experienced declines [37][54] - Monthly performance for affordable housing REITs showed a decrease of 0.88%, with other sectors also reporting negative changes [37] Primary Tracking - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating an active issuance market. Notable funds include Ping An Xi'an High-tech Industrial Park and Dongfang Hong Tunnel Intelligent Operation Highway REITs, which have submitted their initial applications [7][54] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting that the REITs sector presents good investment opportunities amid ongoing policy support and market dynamics [4][5][6]

中经记者 樊红敏 北京报道 近日，中国银行保险资产管理业协会发布的《中国保险资产管理业发展报告（2025）》（以下简 称"《报告》"）显示，截至2024年年末，34家保险资管公司合计管理规模达33.3万亿元，同比增长 10.6%；当年收入合计318.3亿元，增速达到7.31%。 不过，从管理资金来源和保险资管产品结构来看，一些变化趋势值得关注。比如，在保险资管公司近年 来不断推进市场化业务发展的背景下，2024年管理的第三方资金增速却出现下滑；保险资管产品增长率 则近五年来首次为负。 "从资金来源看，大资管赛道竞争日益激烈，公募基金、券商资管、银行理财子公司等机构在投研能 力、产品创新和渠道拓展上持续发力，对保险资管的传统优势领域（如固收+、绝对收益策略）形成强 力冲击。"燕梳资管创始人之一鲁晓岳在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，在此背景下，2024年保 险资管行业管理系统内资金、业外资金仍录得正增长，表现出一定的韧性。 在鲁晓岳看来，组合类产品主要受制于市场与竞争双重压力。2024年资本市场波动加剧，"资产荒"问题 凸显，导致产品业绩承压，吸引力下降，保险行业将更多资金用于自主配置长久期利率债，缩短资产负 ...

固定收益定期 年末还有抢跑行情吗？ 本周债市再度出现调整。本周10年和30年国债利率分别上升2.5bps和2.7bps 至 1.84%和 2.19%。3 年和 5 年二级资本债分别上行 5.5bps 和 3.2bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率相较上周小幅上升 0.5bps 至 1.64%。 债市调整背后依然是机构行为变化的结果。一方面，银行年末面临指标压力与 兑现浮盈需求，配置力量不足；另一方面，公募基金费率改革等影响之下，公 募基金被动赎回带来抛压短期增加。叠加券商等部分交易性机构助推市场趋 势，市场出现调整。但这种调整是否会持续呢，特别是临近年末，往年多次发 生的"抢跑"行情是否会再度发生呢？ 往年 12 月债市多季节性走强，债市呈现出较为稳定的"抢跑"特征。过去 5 年，12 月债市基本上都是走强的，2020-2024 年无一例外，10 年国债利率在 12 月均是下行的，平均下行 14.0bps，其中 2024 年下行幅度最大为 34.5bps， 即使不考虑 2024 年，2020-2023 年也平均下行 8.9bps。年末多次发生抢跑效 应，这个不仅在债券牛市中发生，如 2021 年和 2024 年末 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行。半夏投资创始人李蓓出席本次大会并发表主题演讲。李蓓表示，当下 的富人正身处一个特殊的时期，核心痛点可概括为八个字——财富无处安放，安全难有保障。 李蓓的论述直击高净值人群的资产配置焦虑。她进一步拆解道，从国内市场来看，曾经作为富人资产配 置"压舱石"的固定收益类资产，尤其是非标资产，正面临双重冲击：一方面利率持续下行再下台阶，收 益空间不断被压缩；另一方面非标资产供给逐渐断供，传统配置渠道持续收窄。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 对于备受关注的房地产市场，李蓓给出了辩证判断："若将房地产视为纯粹的消费品，其居住属性已开 始体现相应价值；但如果仍作为投资品来看，当前的租金回报水平依然缺乏足够吸引力，难以成为高净 值人群资产配置的优质选择。" 责任编辑：常福强 ...

王庆指出，随着政策持续发力与企业基本面改善，中国股市正从前期"价值重估"阶段逐步转向"业绩驱 动"的下半场，有望迎来一轮结构性慢牛行情。 王庆回顾了去年此时提出的"否极泰来，价值重估"观点，并指出一年来市场逻辑已发生积极变化。他认 为，当前理解中国经济与资本市场的关键出发点，在于认识到房地产周期调整所带来的深刻影响。在这 一背景下，全社会范围内出现"资产荒"，推动资金向股市等资产配置。 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。重阳投资董事长兼首席经济学家王庆以"从价格重估到业绩驱动"为题发表演讲，系统 阐述了对当前中国资本市场发展趋势的判断。 "去年'924'以来的一系列政策组合，在内容、形式和实施方案上，与国际上应对类似情形的成功经验有 异曲同工之妙。"王庆表示，这些政策包括宽松的货币政策、积极的财政政策以及结构性改革，特别是 中央政府协助地方政府化解债务的政策，有效疏通了经济循环的堵点，为市场注入了信心。 对于市场前景，王庆持乐观态度。他认为，在资产荒背景下，股票市场相较于其他资产类别的收益率优 势进一步凸显。下一步，投资机会将更 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced changes in liquidity, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term yields showing reduced volatility, indicating a steepening yield curve [2][3] - Short-term rates reflect market expectations for policy easing, driven by structural issues in China's economic growth, such as weak consumption and declining real estate sales, suggesting a continued need for a loose monetary environment [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds have shifted, with an increase in the issuance of ultra-long bonds, particularly local government bonds, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of long-term bonds in the market [3] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity easing is crucial for the stock market, as it indicates ongoing support for economic growth and can lower financing costs for leveraged funds, potentially increasing risk appetite among investors [4] - The decline in short-term interest rates may lead to a continued shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market, as high-yield assets become scarcer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic cycle and the challenges faced by investors, emphasizing the need for strategic patience amid market fluctuations and policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The transition from "money shortage" to "asset shortage" reflects a shift in market dynamics, with liquidity excess not translating effectively into real economic growth [2] - The reluctance of producers to expand credit is attributed to a lack of consumer demand, despite the availability of low-cost funds [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is constrained by budget limitations, primarily driven by income levels, which are influenced by immediate, stored, and future income [4] - Policies aimed at redistributing wealth may not yield desired effects; instead, increasing production and income is suggested as a more effective approach [5] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Effective policies should focus on increasing production to enhance immediate income and stimulate consumer spending [5] - Measures such as fiscal subsidies to encourage consumer spending from savings and breaking the expectation of precautionary savings are proposed [6] - The creation of new public works and ensuring asset appreciation are highlighted as potential strategies to boost economic activity [7][8] Group 4: Financial Dynamics - The demand for funds varies across different industries, with traditional industries facing pressures for transformation and new industries requiring long-term investments [11] - The phenomenon of "funds idling" is identified as a critical issue, necessitating regulatory measures to ensure that financial resources effectively support the real economy [12] Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The liquidity situation in 2026 is expected to be less favorable than in 2025, with a greater reliance on structural debt increases for liquidity creation [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Glass, Agricultural Products (in some aspects), PTA, Short Fiber - Bearish: Palm Oil, Live Pigs - Neutral/Oscillating: Macro Finance, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Rubber, Styrene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. Central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support drive the prices of some metals and other commodities, while supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors also affect different sectors [1]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - The market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year. Traders can establish long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's warning on interest - rate risks suppresses short - term upward movement [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support, the price is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: With positive macro sentiment and limited industrial drive, the price rebounds [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's internal differences cause macro sentiment to fluctuate. The domestic situation has improved slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the macro sentiment. Indonesia restricts nickel - related projects, and with production cuts in intermediate products, the price is expected to recover in the short term. The long - term surplus pattern remains [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the sentiment. The price of raw material nickel - iron is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price rebounds slightly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's differences cause macro sentiment to be unstable. Supply has not recovered, and the price is strong. There is demand pressure, and the long - term trend is bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut is high, but geopolitical tensions may ease, and the number of unemployment - benefit applicants has decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly cutting production [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: The industrial off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the price has limited upward space. Traders can participate in virtual value accumulation strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good. The direct demand is okay, but the supply is high, and the inventory is increasing, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is poor, but the cost support is strong. The supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation provides support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment drives strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The price increase faces resistance, and it generally follows the glass market [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start restocking around mid - December. Unilateral trading should be short - term, and long - term investment needs further observation [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production in the origin and reduced exports. Domestic purchases are large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor refutation of the US delaying the reduction of incentives for imported bio - fuel raw materials creates a bullish expectation difference, supporting the price of US soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, but foreign capital's long - position trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong bumper - harvest expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is low, but there is a rigid restocking demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Bean粕**: The short - term supply is tight, and the spot price is firm. The market should pay attention to farmers' selling rhythm. The M05 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: Old warehouse receipts are being cancelled, and new ones are being registered. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the price is oscillating in the short term [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weak, but it has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The current spot price is stable, demand provides support, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It generally follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw - material crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is high [1]. - **Rubber**: The price of butadiene provides limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation. High inventory restricts price increases, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in production capacity [1]. - **Short Fiber**: It closely follows the cost trend [1]. - **Styrene**: The export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - dumping and cost [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - month contracts [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the market is expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [1]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose, and the price increase is less than expected [1].