桂浩明 对于股票ETF，现在的投资者都已经比较熟悉了，而今年以来债券ETF的发展更快，人们理应对此也要 有所了解，进而从其发展的轨迹中得到某种启发。 顾名思义，债券ETF是以相应的债券指数为标的，在模拟其样本结构的基础上设计的理财产品，它通过 投资一揽子债券，建立符合产品风格的投资组合以实现收益，同时也平滑了波动，分散了风险。目前， 债券ETF的品种主要有利率债、信用债以及可转债，涵盖了债券市场上的大部分品种。截至今年6月 底，其规模为3500亿元，较一年半前的2024年初增加约两倍。虽然从绝对值来说这个规模还不能说很 大，但发展速度是很快的，远超同期股票ETF的增幅。那么，是什么原因导致了债券ETF的快速发展 呢？ 众所周知，近两年来我国的市场利率回落比较明显，一年期的存款利率已经低于1%。相比之下虽然债 券利率也同样出现下降，但幅度还是要小一些。在这种状况下，很多社会资金就开始更多地关注债券市 场。我国债券市场目前存量规模超过188万亿元，在品种上包括利率债、信用债、可转债以及绿色债、 科创债、乡村振兴债等，仅在上海证券交易所就有近9000只债券挂牌，如果再加上在深圳证券交易所以 及银行间市场，已上市交易 ...

今年以来，熊猫债发行提速，展现出了较强的"吸金"能力。业内人士认为，在国内发行机制和政策环境 进一步优化的大背景下，熊猫债市场的发展将继续提质增效。同时，预计会涌现更多创新性的熊猫债产 品以及更多国家地区的纯境外发行人，市场结构将呈现多元化和丰富化的特点。 不过，多位受访的业内专家表示，未来一段时间，随着熊猫债发行和交易规则的不断完善，在政策端的 鼎力支持下，预计将涌现更多创新性的熊猫债产品以及更多国家地区的纯境外发行人。 例如，近期德意志银行集团就协助化工企业巴斯夫（BASF)旗下的全资子公司——巴斯夫爱尔兰 DAC(BASF Ireland DAC)成功发行了总规模30亿元的人民币三年期和五年期熊猫债。这不仅是巴斯夫首 次发行的该期限人民币债券，也是今年以来，首支由外资企业发行的5年期熊猫债券。 市场持续扩容 所谓熊猫债，是指境外机构在中国境内发行的以人民币计价的债券，既是推动我国债券市场开放的重要 举措，也是拓宽人民币跨境融资渠道，助力人民币国际化进程的重要工具。 可以看到，境外机构在境内发行熊猫债起步于 2005 年《国际开发机构人民币债券发行管理办法》的出 台，其后熊猫债市场发行量一直较低，直至20 ...

随着利率持续走低，朱广生发现，波段交易的重要性愈发凸显 ——息差不断收窄，为了获取更多的收益，债券投资部门进行 波段交易的频次明显增加。而且，需要交易员更加敏锐地捕捉 市场的短期波动，把握每一个可能的获利机会。 作者：蔡越坤 封图：图虫创意 "赚0.25BP（基点）就跑！"这是朱广生在2025年以来债券交易工作日的真实工作写照。朱广生所 说的"跑"，就是卖出债券。 自2025年上半年起，"AAA"级城投债收益率降至"1时代"已成常态，相比2024年同期大幅下降50～ 100BP。7月10日，作为资产定价之锚的10年期中国国债收益率为1.6570%，30年国债收益率在2% 之下。 随着利率持续走低，朱广生发现，波段交易的重要性愈发凸显——息差不断收窄，为了获取更多的 收益，债券投资部门进行波段交易的频次明显增加。而且，需要交易员更加敏锐地捕捉市场的短期 波动，把握每一个可能的获利机会。 主要配置债市资产的银行理财产品、货币基金等资管产品，收益率也在下行。经济观察报记者发 现，1年期（国有大行）理财产品的收益率在1.20%左右，3年期理财产品的收益率为1.55%附近。 货币型基金的平均七日年化收益率已下滑至1.3 ...

经济观察记者 蔡越坤 姜鑫 自2025年上半年起，"AAA"级城投债收益率降至"1时代"已成常态，相比2024年同期大幅下降50～ 100BP。7月10日，作为资产定价之锚的10年期中国国债收益率为1.6570%，30年国债收益率在2%之 下。 随着利率持续走低，朱广生发现，波段交易的重要性愈发凸显——息差不断收窄，为了获取更多的收 益，债券投资部门进行波段交易的频次明显增加。而且，需要交易员更加敏锐地捕捉市场的短期波动， 把握每一个可能的获利机会。 主要配置债市资产的银行理财产品、货币基金等资管产品，收益率也在下行。经济观察报记者发现，1 年期（国有大行）理财产品的收益率在1.20%左右，3年期理财产品的收益率为1.55%附近。货币型基金 的平均七日年化收益率已下滑至1.30%附近…… 债券是保险资管的主要配置资产之一。一位大型保险资管管理层人士与朱广生有着相似的感受——"见 到4%收益的资产，眼睛都会发亮。" 他坦言，投资机构目前面临着两大方面的挑战：一方面，市场上高收益的优质项目越来越少，缺乏高收 益资产的现象愈发凸显；另一方面，在经济动能转换过程中，投资机构的专业度存在不足，需要尽快补 齐这块短板。 ...

价值重估的下半场——银行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 宏观资产荒背景下，银行股因盈利稳定和重大风险底线确立迎来估值修 复。2023 年起，A 股和港股的大型银行及招商银行等呈现轮动式估值 修复趋势，监管政策对城投、地产等风险托底，增强了市场对银行盈利 韧性的预期。 资金面上，红利高股息、被动指数基金 ETF 扩容及公募基金修正欠配是 三大共振逻辑。这些逻辑依赖于银行基本面的稳定性，盈利的持续稳定 是推动估值修复的关键。 预计 2025 年起，存款成本将加速下降，缓解净息差压力。大量定期存 款到期并以较低利率重新定价，将显著降低银行的付息率，此趋势预计 延续至 2026 年。 2025 年银行业净息差进入阶段性企稳周期，部分区域城商行表现强势。 监管对贷款利率投放有所控制，新发房贷利率划定 3%红线，有助于保 护息差。 2025 年全国银行贷款同比增速放缓至 7.1%，预计年底进一步回落。信 贷总量增速走低符合经济转型预期，传统动能衰减导致信贷增长收敛。 Q&A 2025 年银行业的中期投资策略是什么？ 2025 年银行业的中期投资策略主要围绕价值重估展开。过去两年半，银行股 持续演绎 ...

证券时报记者张淑贤 "我们提出的解决路径就是打造一个符合中国债券市场投资习惯，适应监管机构要求的'高收益债'市 场，以鼓励信用分层促进资质不同的产业企业融资，以必要监管守好市场底线，这就是我们目前提出的 高成长产业债市场。"上交所债券业务中心有关负责人近日向记者表示。 2025年以来，高成长产业债发行形势良好。其中，广西现代物流集团成功发行全国商贸物流领域首单省 属国企高成长产业债，期限3+2年，票面利率2.95%；山西神达能源集团发行的山西省首单高成长产业 债，2.58%的票面利率创下该企业融资成本新低。 在上交所债券业务中心有关负责人看来，上述疑虑源于对高成长产业债定位不够清晰。高成长产业债是 一项服务国家战略，合理容忍信用水平变化，通过完善信息披露和交易机制，建立风险合理分配和市场 化退出机制的市场化产品。 "高成长产业债市场甚至可以更简化地理解为剔除投机属性过强的垃圾债市场后的国外高收益债券市 场，核心目标是加强债券市场对实体经济的有效支持。"上交所债券业务中心有关负责人说。 截至6月30日，上交所累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地，多地区、多类型企业相继完成发行，金额 合计373亿元，同时已有80余 ...

上交所推出的高成长产业债是什么？"市场需要一款既有收益，又能让投资机构买得放心的特殊产品， 这就是我们目前提出的高成长产业债。"面对市场的疑问，上交所债券业务中心有关负责人近日这样向 记者解释。 高成长产业债的诞生源于市场投融双方长期存在隔离。在利率中枢明显下行的过程中，投资机构收益率 同步下降，长期遵循的"重城投、轻产业"的投资逻辑无法继续，甚至形成所谓"资产荒"的结构性欠配。 与此同时，急需资金助力的产业类企业难以获得资金支持，融资渠道不够畅通，融资难、融资贵的情形 仍然存在。 债券市场投融风格亟待变革。在这样的背景下，高成长产业债2024年应运而生。截至6月30日，上交所 累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地，多地区、多类型企业相继完成创新性发行，金额合计373亿元； 同时年内已有80余家非银机构参与该产品投资，高成长产业债已成为各类投资机构增厚收益的重要选 择。 具体来看，上交所一方面推动中介机构优化产业企业立项标准，鼓励证券公司积极承销产业企业债券； 另一方面设计了多层次投融对接支持机制，帮助投资机构增加对企业的了解，挖掘产业企业的投资价 值，努力为产业企业营造更友好的融资环境。 有效打消投资机构顾虑 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

【导读】彻底爆了！两只公募REITs一日"吸金"超4000亿元 中国基金报记者 若晖 作为年度最热单品之一，两款公募REITs再现千亿元资金抢筹现象。 7月9日晚间，华夏华电清洁能源REIT和创金合信首农REIT齐齐公布发售结果。公告显示，在 比例配售之前，华夏华电清洁能源REIT"吸金"约1711亿元，创金合信首农REIT"吸金"约 2291亿元，两只产品合计热卖逾4000亿元。 今年以来，在二级市场表现回暖的带动下，公募REITs一级市场发行持续火爆。Wind数据显 示，截至7月9日，今年以来成功发行的公募REITs数量达到12只，全部实现一日售罄，其中 有10只比例配售前发行金额超千亿元，12只基金在比例配售前累计"吸金"超1.7万亿元。 华夏华电清洁能源REIT 7月9日晚间，两款公募REITs产品公布最终的比例配售结果。 华夏华电清洁能源REIT公布的认购申请确认比例结果显示，截至7月7日，7家战略投资者皆 已根据战略配售协议，按照网下询价确定的认购价格认购其承诺的基金份额并全额缴纳认购 款，对应的有效认购基金份额数量为35000.00万份，占基金发售份额总数的比例为 70.00%，战略投资者有效认 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 近日，险资扫货两只A股上市公司。 今年以来，以险资为代表的举牌方成为资本市场最强劲的资金流。据证券时报记者不完全统计，险资年内举牌 A股和港股上市公司不少于20次，银行、公用事业等稳定股息资产成为险资追捧的主要对象。此外，中国中信 金融资产等AMC机构、宽德私募等私募机构以及部分牛散今年也纷纷加入了举牌队伍。 受访人士表示，在当前低利率环境下，寻找具有稳定现金流和良好业绩基础的企业成为资金的最优选择。险资 等资金通过配置银行、公用事业等稳定高股息资产是一个比较好的获取稳定现金流的方式。 险资等资金强劲扫货 近日，江南水务发布公告称，利安人寿通过集合竞价方式累计增持公司达4699.54万股，占比5.03%。无独有 偶，华菱钢铁也发布公告称，信泰人寿自2025年1月至今，通过二级市场集中竞价方式累计增持公司股份3.43 亿股，现已合计持有公司股份3.45亿股，占公司总股本的比例已达到5.00%。 记者从港交所披露易获悉，弘康人寿于6月27日以每股1.2068港元增持郑州银行H股1600万股，增持后持股比例 占郑州银行 ...