Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. On the cost side, the U.S. soybean planting area report had a neutral impact, and the quarterly inventory report had a bearish impact. The market focus shifted to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, as well as export and crushing demand. Currently, the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and as of July 1st, the drought in U.S. soybean - producing areas dropped to 8%. Additionally, U.S. soybean demand is performing well. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans were 701,400 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period. The U.S. Senate passed the 45Z tax bill, and the biodiesel policy is favorable for crushing demand, with U.S. soybean oil performing strongly. With these mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuated upwards. - In China, recently, the arrival of soybeans at ports has been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal levels, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. At the same time, the downstream restocking has weakened recently, putting pressure on the spot price of soybean meal. Moreover, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of oil mills have entered an accumulation cycle. Among them, the soybean inventory is 6.66 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons compared to last week; the soybean - meal inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of 180,000 tons compared to last week. - Strategy: With mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuate upwards. From May to July in China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level in the same period, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, the downstream restocking has weakened, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the reduction in the U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed. The subsequent market will focus on weather speculation, and the Sino - U.S. tariff issue will continue to ferment. It is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. 3) Summary by Directory Main Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The cost - side factors of U.S. soybeans are mixed, with the market focusing on weather, export, and crushing demand. In China, the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and downstream restocking has weakened. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, weather speculation, and Sino - U.S. tariffs need to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Market Review - As of July 4th, the CBOT soybean closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 23 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 2.24%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan per ton, up 8 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.27% [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - side**: The weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas will have sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the next two weeks. As of June 29th, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 seasons increased compared to the previous week. Brazil's soybean export in June is estimated to be 13.93 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the Brazilian real continues to appreciate, and the near - month soybean premium has gradually increased [12][24][30]. - **Supply**: In the 26th week of 2025 (June 21st - June 27th), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 2.73 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the 27th week (June 28th - July 4th), the actual soybean - crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than the estimate. The soybean - meal transaction volume increased to 828,700 tons, an increase of 18.23%, and the提货 volume increased to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 4.10% [12][33][35]. - **Inventory**: In the 26th week of 2025, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of major domestic oil mills increased, while the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons compared to last week, an increase of 4.37% and 17.68% year - on - year. The soybean - meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons compared to last week, an increase of 35.90% and a decrease of 34.32% year - on - year [42]. Spread Tracking The report mentions data sources for spread - tracking indicators such as the soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, the oil - to - meal ratio, the soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and the soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread, but no specific spread - tracking data is provided [45][47][50][51].