2025年12月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.8 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profits and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly, but the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [1]. - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Main Contract Information - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of container goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. Among them, the number of TEUs sent this year has exceeded 1.3 million, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - SCFIS continues to decline, suppressing the market to fall, and the actual price increase implementation is not ideal. The long - term sentiment has subsided, and the market is in a weak shock. The core is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process [2][6] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6] Group 4: SCFIS, NCFI and Other Indexes - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5] - On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5] Group 5: Economic Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, previous value 45; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, previous value 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, previous value 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value - 8.5 [5] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2, expected 53.5, previous value 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, previous value 52; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, previous value 53.9 [6] Group 6: Market Situation of Main Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6] Group 7: Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7] Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try [7] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7] Group 8: Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [7] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [7] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 02 contract opened higher and trended upward, with the overall market showing a strong oscillation, which is in line with the daily report's expectation. It is advisable to consider partial profit - taking and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the long - position sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In October, the US S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On November 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a 6.73% increase, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [4] - The 2508 - 2606 contracts' daily limit was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts was 100 lots [5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, focus on spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt due to large fluctuations in each contract [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]

宏观产业利好共振，铜价冲高震荡 11月铜月报 2025-11-7 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 10月铜价大幅上涨，月涨幅4.69%，截至10月31日沪铜收盘价为87010元/吨。中美元首会谈叠加贸易磋商达成协议给市场带来信心，中美关税风险减弱， 国内十五五规划建议提振市场情绪。俄乌冲突停火预期，叠加美联储降息提振有色金属价格，宏观利好整体释放。基本面上，铜矿紧缺扰动下支撑中长期铜 价，国内电解铜产出继续下滑。10月冶炼厂检修叠加阳极铜较难采购影响下国内电解铜产量环比继续下滑，有色协会产能天花板倡议下铜供应有减弱预期。 国内消费因高铜价受到抑制，下游需求整体偏弱，但长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存。宏观利好释放叠加基本面支撑较强，铜价整体偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 86,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory increases, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises declines. The price may fluctuate between 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and there is a risk of a pullback [3]. Alumina - The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite, the actual impact of domestic environmental protection policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of concerns about LME zinc squeezing and a warm macro - environment, zinc prices show a short - term strong oscillation, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. It may maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the market sentiment is weak. The fundamentals are generally flat, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are gradually weakening, the supply - side pressure remains, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. With strong demand expectations, the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Alumina - The average price of alumina in Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium is - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 285,400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; SMM 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 340 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Copper - In October, the electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In October, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7421 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 29,000 tons, up 13.07% month - on - month [3]. Alumina - In October, the alumina output was 1.82 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - The Chinese refined nickel output was 35,900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 38,164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 126,961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and partial profit-taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% [2]. - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% [2]. - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sentiment [3]. - In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the Service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Service PMI in October was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52, and the previous value was 52; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3]. Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - lovers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached a new high in 2023 due to a combination of supply disruptions and monetary easing, with a shift from a balanced supply-demand scenario to a shortage [1][4] Supply Factors - Major copper mines such as Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, leading to a global copper supply shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have dropped to a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite the decline in TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential price drops in these by-products could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Factors - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has had a mild suppressive effect on downstream demand, contrasting with previous price surges where demand feedback was more negative [2] - The market's perception of acceptable copper prices is gradually increasing as supply tightens [2] Macroeconomic Influences - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key macro driver supporting copper prices, with two potential cuts anticipated by the end of the year [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts [3] - The COMEX copper market is experiencing a premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of monetary easing support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [4] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth [4] - The market needs to monitor macroeconomic factors such as tariff policies and overseas interest rate changes, as these could significantly impact copper prices in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is fast, with the technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, but its downside risk is generally controllable. The convertible bond market is trending optimistically. In the short term, the impetus for the convertible bond market comes from the liability side, with the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential increased demand from the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs. After a period of retracement and consolidation, a new round of market upswing is expected to start. [3][5] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Outlook - Policy support has strongly influenced the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have hit new phased highs. The equity market is highly volatile due to Sino - US tariff and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is optimistic, and its short - term momentum comes from the liability side, such as the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and potential demand from stock - bond constant ETFs. [3][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - During the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk appetite was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - rated large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and its percentile since 2017 was 93.9%. High - rated convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - rated ones. - The conversion premium rate and the bottom - line premium rate increased across most parity ranges. The low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range showed relatively strong valuation performance, while the high - parity range above 140 yuan saw a slight decline. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.80 yuan, up 2.07 yuan from the previous week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.47%, down 0.01%. Their percentile levels since 2017 were 99.20 and 0.60 respectively. [4][6][10] 3. Clause Statistics 3.1 Redemption - This week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun, Youfa, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 Convertible Bonds announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 18 convertible bonds that have announced forced or maturity redemptions but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 34 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. [4][13][16] 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 32 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 has issued a board - meeting proposal for downward revision but has not yet held a shareholders' meeting. [4][18] 3.3 Put Option - This week, Baocai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 5 are accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period. [4][22] 4. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new convertible bond issuances this week. Jin 25, Funeng, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 Convertible Bonds have been issued but not yet listed. Jin 25 Convertible Bond is scheduled to list on October 27, 2025. As of now, there are 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 awaiting listing - committee approval, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. [4][26] 5. Appendix - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% this week. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed significant recovery. Most industries saw gains, with the national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer sectors leading the way. [28][33]