债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（0807-0821）：财政贴息政策落 地，政策性工具有望推出 ❖ 宏观基调：财政贴息政策落地，年内设备更新资金下达完毕 （1）财政贴息：《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策实施方案》出台，以提振消费需求，两顶政策到期后将开展效果 评估，研究视情延长政策的期限。 （2）国常会：国常会上李强总理强调要培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投 资。 （3）设备更新：据发改委，年内 1880 亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资 补助资金下达完毕。 ❖ 财政政策：专项债可用于 PPP 建设成本，"准财政"工具有望推出 （2）货政报告：央行二季度货政执行报告延续"落实落细"总定调，防资金 空转仍有定力。 （3）金融数据：金融时报回应如何更好理解当前金融数据的问题时称在当 前决策层多次提到"破除内卷式竞争"的背景下，金融机构必须看到挖掘 有效信贷需求是银行稳健可持续经营的保障。 ❖ 金融监管：银行并购贷款征求意见稿出台，个人养老金新增三种领取情形 （1）银行：监管整治银行"内卷式"竞争；居民存款搬家，资金加速入市； 商业银行并购贷款管理办法 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese and Indian foreign ministers resulted in 10 key agreements aimed at enhancing bilateral relations and cooperation [3][4][5] - Both sides emphasized the importance of strategic leadership from their respective leaders for the development of China-India relations [3] - China welcomed Indian Prime Minister Modi's participation in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, while India expressed support for China's presidency of the organization [3][4] Group 2 - The two countries agreed to support each other's diplomatic activities, including the hosting of the BRICS summits in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] - There is a mutual agreement to explore the resumption of various government-to-government dialogue mechanisms to strengthen cooperation and manage differences [3][4] - Both nations plan to facilitate direct flights and visa conveniences for travelers engaged in tourism, business, and media activities [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement includes provisions for the continued pilgrimage of Indian devotees to sacred sites in Tibet, expanding the scale of such activities [4][5] - Specific measures will be taken to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries [5] - Both sides committed to maintaining peace and stability in border areas through friendly consultations [5] Group 4 - The two countries agreed to promote multilateralism and enhance communication on major international and regional issues, defending the interests of developing countries [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Given the short - term market fluctuations, it is not advisable to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The market may experience wide - range fluctuations when the basis converges, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 18, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8; the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In the US in July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7); the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53); the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, the trading volume was 28,100 lots, and the open interest was 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS European route index declined again, and some liner companies continued to lower spot freight rates. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 of the 2510 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [4] - Long - term strategy: It is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after the price stabilizes [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current bull market has seen 3,451 companies surpass last year's high, with 2,424 of them recording over 20% gains this year, indicating a strong market trend [1] - The total market capitalization of 124 secondary industries has increased from 87.17 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 102.45 trillion yuan, a growth of 15.28 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Sector Contributions - The top ten sectors contributing to market capitalization growth include state-owned banks, chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, consumer electronics, securities, communication equipment, automotive parts, components, industrial metals, and general equipment [2][3] - The banking sector (state-owned and joint-stock banks) contributed over 1.68 trillion yuan, while the medical sector (chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and devices) contributed approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, making them key drivers of the bull market [3] Group 3: Emotional Triggers - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a ten-year high, with significant resistance expected in the 3,700-3,750 point range due to historical sell-offs [5][7] - Recent news about a 1.1 trillion yuan decrease in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank financial institution deposits has sparked speculation about capital moving into the stock market, although this conclusion may be premature [7][8] Group 4: Future Market Divergence Points - The expiration of the "temporary suspension window" for US-China tariffs may introduce new market volatility, as recent negotiations have led to a 90-day delay in implementing tariffs [9] - The upcoming IPO of Yushu Technology, valued at 12 billion yuan, is expected to attract significant investment, with estimated frozen funds ranging from 35 billion to 50 billion yuan [10]

Group 1: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policy - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and service industry loans, referred to as "national subsidy" in the consumer loan sector [2][3] - The subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point for both personal consumer loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [2][3] - The policy targets consumption in key areas such as home appliances, automobiles, education, and healthcare, with specific conditions for loans to service industry entities [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, both showing a decline compared to June [4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year [4] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted external challenges such as trade protectionism and extreme weather affecting economic performance [4] Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, the total social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [5] - The increase in bond financing has significantly contributed to the growth of social financing, with government bond net financing up by 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [5][6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a high of 3704.77 points, marking a significant recovery in the A-share market [7] - The number of new stock accounts opened in July surged by 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased investor enthusiasm [7] - Analysts suggest that the upward momentum in the stock market is supported by clear policy backing and the influx of new capital [7] Group 5: Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining 10% tariffs on certain goods [8] - This agreement follows a series of trade talks aimed at reducing tensions and enhancing cooperation between the two nations [8] - The ongoing discussions indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve trade issues, although challenges remain [8] Group 6: Healthcare Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration has published a list of drugs that passed the preliminary review for inclusion in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories [9] - A total of 534 drugs were approved for the basic medical insurance directory, while 121 drugs were approved for the commercial insurance innovation directory [9][10] - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory aims to support high-value innovative drugs and facilitate their market entry [10] Group 7: Taxation Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [11][12] - The draft aims to clarify regulations and enhance the operability of the tax system, although expectations for loan interest to be tax-deductible were not met [11][12] - The implementation of the VAT law is seen as a crucial step in establishing a comprehensive legal framework for taxation in China [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly recovered, with the main contract experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Given the large recent volatility, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period. Also on August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3][4]. 3.3 Trade and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.4 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day. The market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the possible stabilization of market freight rates, the long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuates widely. Except for the main contract, other contracts have risen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, a light - position long attempt can be made around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or make a light - position attempt. - **Long - term strategy**: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.6 Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - and down limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. 3.7 Shipping Industry Forecast - After a 6% growth in global container shipping volume in 2024, it is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025 after scrapping 100,000 TEU of capacity each year in 2023 and 2024. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEU in 2024, 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and 1.6 million TEU in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEU of ship orders globally, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, higher than 27% in 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant increase in trading, with Tencent Music rising over 12% and Qifu Technology increasing over 6% following the announcement of a joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent Music (TME.US) saw a rise of over 12% [1] - Qifu Technology (QFIN.US) increased by over 6% [1] - Other notable stocks included BOSS Zhipin (BZ.US), JD.com (JD.US), and NetEase (NTES.US), each rising by over 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Announcement - A joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks was released, indicating that from August 12, 2025, the implementation of a 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days [1] - The statement also mentioned that the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods will still be subject to the provisions of the existing executive order [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - **Macro and News**: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - **Supply - Side**: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - **New Energy**: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - **Nickel Spot Price**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].