S&P 500 Drops Below 50-Day Moving AverageLIVE[Dow Is Falling. AI Fears Persist.]Last Updated:---7 min ago# S&P 500 Drops Below 50-Day Moving AverageBy[Connor Smith]The S&P 500 fell back below its 50-day moving average on Thursday as weakness in stocks spread beyond the tech sector.The market benchmark was down 1% to 6816.03. If it finishes below 6881.638, it will close below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 20, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The index is the most its been below it ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple Inc's stock has been rising since late January, currently trading at $271.69, supported by record iPhone sales and breaking above a historically bullish trendline [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock is on track for a third consecutive increase, with a potential target of reaching its December 3 record high of $288.62 [1] - The 50-day moving average trendline crossover has occurred 16 times in the last three years, with Apple stock rising 75% of the time one month later, averaging a 3.3% increase [2] Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are bullish on Apple, as indicated by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio ranking in the 4th percentile of its annual range [4] - Options traders are anticipating low volatility, with the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) at 2%, ranking in the low 8th percentile of readings from the past 12 months [4]

Market Trends - The key support level is identified at the 200-day moving average of $60.51, with potential re-entry points at $59.80, $58.93, and $58.52 if this support fails [1] - The market is currently in a "buy the dip" mode, supported by the upward trend indicated by both the swing chart and moving averages [1] Price Projections - If momentum builds above the 200-day moving average, a potential rise to the main top at $62.20 is anticipated, which could trigger an acceleration towards the September 26 main top at $64.75 [2] Market Drivers - Early session strength is driven by weather disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, which are expected to continue impacting prices [3] - Winter storm Fern is causing significant disruptions across the U.S., affecting crude and natural gas production and stressing the power grid, thereby underpinning prices due to tightened physical flows [4] - JPMorgan analysts report a loss of approximately 250,000 barrels per day of crude production in the U.S. due to harsh weather conditions, particularly in the Bakken field and parts of Texas [5]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 reached a new record high at the end of the first full trading week of 2026, indicating strong market performance [1] - Historical analysis shows significant drawdowns, with a notable drop of approximately 57% from the peak in October 2007 to the trough in March 2009 during the Global Financial Crisis [1] - The S&P 500 has shown resilience, taking over five years to recover to a new all-time high after the financial crisis [1] Performance Analysis - The S&P 500 is up 1.76% year-to-date, while the S&P Equal Weight Index, which equally weights the same constituents, is up 3.14% year-to-date, indicating a divergence in performance between the two indices [4] - The S&P 500 has been above its 50-day moving average since December 18, 2022, and above its 200-day moving average since May 12, 2022, suggesting a bullish trend [2] Volatility Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9, 2022, since December 24, 2018, highlighting periods of significant market fluctuations [3] - The average percent change from the intraday low to high over the past 20 days is 0.72%, indicating moderate volatility in recent trading sessions [3]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to $90,500 after dropping to approximately $89,300, following a peak near $95,000 earlier in the week, indicating a pullback influenced by profit-taking and lighter trading volumes [1] - The market's inability to break the $95,000 resistance level has led to two-way trading, with ETF outflows dominating recent sessions [2] Federal Reserve Impact - Expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve have declined, with the probability of an easing at the January 28 meeting now at 11.6%, down from 15.5% a week ago and 23.5% a month ago [3] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is currently testing the 50-day moving average, which is at $89,200, the level at which it bounced today [4] Derivatives Market - Open interest in bitcoin futures and options has reached a three-week high of nearly 700,000 BTC, an increase of about 75,000 BTC since the start of the year, indicating that traders are adding exposure [5] - Positive perpetual futures funding rates at around 0.09% suggest that long positions are paying shorts, and the persistent positive funding during pullbacks indicates continued buying of dips using leverage [6]

Core Viewpoint - K12 (LRN) shows potential as a stock pick due to its recent technical movements and positive earnings estimate revisions Technical Analysis - LRN has surpassed resistance at the 50-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The 50-day simple moving average is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify support and resistance levels [1] Performance Metrics - LRN has increased by 9.9% over the last four weeks, suggesting a potential for further gains [2] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating positive market sentiment [2] Earnings Estimates - There have been no downward revisions in earnings estimates for the current fiscal year in the past two months, with one upward revision noted [2] - The consensus estimate for LRN has also increased, reinforcing the bullish outlook [2][3] Investment Consideration - Given the positive technical factors and earnings estimate revisions, LRN may present a favorable opportunity for investors seeking gains in the near future [3]

Market Overview - Nifty Bank index opened lower at 59,093, slightly recovering to 59,140, down 0.1% from the previous close of 59,184 [1] - The advance/decline ratio is even at 6/6, with IDFC First Bank and IndusInd Bank being the top gainers, up 1% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda are the top losers, down 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [1] Sector Performance - Nifty Private Bank index is flat, while Nifty PSU Bank index is down 0.2%, indicating that private banks are outperforming public sector banks [2] Futures Analysis - December expiry Nifty Bank futures opened lower at 59,200, currently hovering around the same level, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close of 59,253 [3] - The futures are trading above the support band of 59,000-59,150, where the 50-day moving average aligns, suggesting a potential recovery [3] - If the futures breach the support at 59,000, a bearish outlook may emerge, with a potential drop to 58,250 [4] Trade Strategy - Recommended to buy Nifty Bank futures at 59,200, with targets set at 60,200 and a stop-loss at 58,900 [5] - Supports are identified at 59,150 and 59,000, while resistances are at 60,200 and 60,500 [5] Companies to Watch - IndusInd Bank Ltd is highlighted as a company to follow in the current market scenario [5]

Technical Analysis - Nvidia (NVDA) has reached a key level of support and recently overtook the 50-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The 50-day simple moving average is a significant technical indicator for determining support or resistance levels [1] Stock Performance - Shares of NVDA have increased by 6.4% over the past four weeks [2] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential for continued stock price growth [2] Earnings Estimates - There have been 15 positive earnings estimate revisions for NVDA, with none being lowered for the current fiscal year [2] - The consensus earnings estimate for NVDA has also increased, strengthening the bullish outlook [2] Investment Outlook - Investors are encouraged to monitor NVDA for potential gains due to its key technical level and favorable earnings estimate revisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASML is showing potential for investment due to its recent technical breakout and positive earnings revisions, indicating a bullish trend in the near future [1][2][3] Technical Analysis - ASML has recently broken above the 50-day moving average, which is a significant indicator of a bullish trend [1] - The stock has reached a key level of support, suggesting further upward movement may be possible [1] Performance Metrics - Over the past four weeks, ASML's stock has increased by 9.3% [2] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating potential for further gains [2] Earnings Estimates - There have been two upward revisions in ASML's earnings estimates for the current fiscal year, with no downward revisions [2] - The consensus earnings estimate for ASML has also increased, strengthening the bullish outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is experiencing a downtrend, with key resistance levels identified at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating potential challenges for any upward price movements [1][2][5] Group 1: Price Trends and Resistance Levels - The 20-day moving average is currently at $58.31 and is seen as a significant resistance level for any potential price rebounds [1] - A bearish continuation was confirmed with a decline below the previous swing low of $56.41, indicating that the downtrend from the June peak of $78.44 may persist [2] - The 50-day moving average is currently at $59.20 and is also falling, serving as a secondary resistance level [3] Group 2: Potential Bounce and Reversal Indicators - A bounce towards the 50-day average is possible, but the 20-day average will act as the first line of defense against upward movements [3] - The recent low of $55.00 is critical, with an increased chance of breaking below this level, while a bullish reversal would require exceeding the recent swing high of $60.56 [4] - A daily close above the 50-day average would be significant for bullish sentiment, but the pattern of lower swing highs suggests a bearish trend remains dominant [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rebound in crude oil prices has stalled at previous resistance levels, maintaining the downtrend and keeping sellers in control [5] - Monitoring the 20-day and 50-day averages is crucial for any potential upward extensions, with failure to surpass $60.56 indicating continued bearish dominance [5]