Group 1 - Recent cotton futures prices have experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions, leading to intense long-short market battles [1] - Cotton consumption averaged around 750,000 tons per month from March to May, with June consumption at 697,000 tons and 320,000 tons in the first half of July, indicating that the first half of the year exceeded expectations [1] - The strong cotton consumption during the "golden three silver four" months is attributed to good export data and increasing production capacity in Xinjiang, which is expected to reach 30 million spindles by 2025, creating a localized tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The cotton spinning mills' operating rate has decreased to 47.8% as of July 25, down to last year's levels, while the overall weaving mills' operating rate is at 44.4%, also lower than the previous year [1] - Raw material inventory for spinning mills is at 30.8 days, with finished goods inventory at 30.1 days, indicating a slowdown in accumulation [1] - Weaving mills have a cotton yarn inventory of 5.4 days, with a slight replenishment, while the finished goods inventory for cotton fabric is at 37.2 days, showing significant accumulation, particularly in the fabric segment, leading to a lack of confidence in the market outlook [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market discussions regarding the ability of the 2509 contract bulls to take delivery, with no significant cancellation of warehouse receipts observed, but an increase in effective forecasts [2] - The 2509 contract's delivery logic suggests that the market may revert to a backwardation state, with expectations of a return to near parity levels [2] - The market anticipates a bumper crop of 7.2 million tons for the new season, with favorable planting conditions and expectations of early new cotton sales, although high basis levels complicate next year's basis trading [2] Group 4 - The withdrawal of bulls from the 09 contract has confirmed the lack of cost-effectiveness in taking delivery, while the validation of the 9-1 price spread remains ongoing [3] - As September approaches, market focus will shift to new cotton negotiations, with potential for localized rush buying [3]