上述钢材加工企业面临的困境具有典型性，销售端"以销定产"与采购端"随行就市"的天然矛盾，叠加招 投标流程的时间差，常使其经营暴露于价格风险中。该企业曾因不敢保留原料敞口而频繁被动采购，既 难以锁定利润，又面临现金流紧张的窘境。与此同时，在华东地区，同行对期货工具的成熟应用，让螺 纹钢、热卷期货价格逐渐成为产业链定价基准，虚拟库存、基差交易等创新模式在江浙沪企业中逐渐流 行。 上述企业以往从未参与过期货相关交易，对期货了解较少，但也希望通过期货对冲采购端价格波动风 险，稳定原料成本，积累风险管理经验。针对企业"锁定加工利润、规避原料涨价风险"的核心诉求，华 安期货设计出一套热卷期货主力合约买入套保方案，通过相关衍生工具帮助企业对冲现货价格上行风 险，降低企业保值成本。 经测算，唐山Q235热卷现货价格与期货价格的半年相关系数为0.97，一年相关系数为0.90，完全满足套 保有效性要求。根据华安期货设计的方案，当后期价格上涨时，期货端的盈利可以对冲原料采购成本的 增加；当价格下跌时，原材料采购成本降低，可以弥补期货端的亏损。 当前国内钢材加工行业集中度提升，部分大型钢材加工终端企业寻求利用衍生工具帮助采购端降本增 ...

Core Insights - Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling off their assets at an accelerated pace, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that is causing a slow and steady decline in the cryptocurrency market [1][3][4] - Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% since reaching a historical high of $126,000 in January, currently hovering around $85,000 without finding effective support [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Data from blockchain analytics indicates that early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest rate in recent years, with 1.6 million Bitcoins, valued at approximately $140 billion, being sold since the beginning of 2023 [3][5] - The demand that previously absorbed selling pressure has diminished, as ETF fund flows have turned negative, derivative trading volumes have significantly decreased, and retail participation has notably declined [3][4] Group 2: Selling Pressure and Market Liquidity - The market is experiencing a slow bleed characterized by persistent selling pressure meeting weak buying liquidity, making it harder to reverse the downward trend compared to leveraged-driven crashes [4][6] - The recent sell-off is among the largest in history, with the reactivation of dormant Bitcoins not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but rather by deep liquidity from U.S. ETFs and institutional demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the heavy selling pressure, there are indications that the sell-off by long-term holders may soon come to an end, as approximately 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years [7] - It is anticipated that the selling from long-term holders will taper off by 2026, as Bitcoin transitions to net buyer demand amid deeper institutional integration [7]

比特币最为坚定的长期持有者仍在持续套现，抛压开始在价格走势中明显显现。自两个多月前比特币价格创下 12.6万美元以上的历史高位以来，其价格已回落近30%，并在当前区间内艰难寻找支撑。周三，比特币再度跌 破8.6万美元关口，报85889.53美元。 比特币承压的一个重要原因在于，长期持有者的抛售行为仍未停止。最新区块链数据显示，那些被持有数年的 比特币正以近年来罕见的速度重新流入市场，而与此同时，市场对这些筹码的承接能力却在减弱。 根据K33Research的报告，自2023年初以来，至少两年未发生转移的比特币数量已减少约160万枚，按当前价格 计算价值约1400亿美元。这一变化被视为长期持有者持续兑现收益的明确信号。 仅在2025年，就有接近3000亿美元、此前沉睡超过一年的比特币重新进入流通。区块链分析公司CryptoQuant指 出，过去30天内，长期持有者的抛售规模创下五年多来的最高水平之一。 去中心化金融研究机构Ergonia的研究主管Chris Newhouse表示，目前市场正经历一种"缓慢失血"的过程，特点 是现货持续被抛售，而买盘流动性却相对稀薄。这种由现货抛压主导的下行走势，比由高杠杆爆仓引发 ...

Group 1 - The president of the Bank for International Settlements, Pablo Hernández de Cos, warns about the increasing role of non-bank institutions, including hedge funds, in the sovereign bond market amid historically high government debt levels and complex geopolitical contexts [1] - De Cos states that while these less-regulated entities can enhance liquidity and lower government financing costs during calm market periods, their greater involvement also raises the risk of nonlinear spikes in sovereign yields [1] - He highlights that hedge funds typically employ high leverage strategies when trading government bonds, which could amplify the impact of potential crises, posing new financial stability risks [1] Group 2 - The Financial Stability Board has noted the prevalence of leveraged bets by hedge funds and basis trading, which has drawn regulatory scrutiny, although there has been a recent easing in proposals to enhance transparency in this area [1] - De Cos emphasizes the need for policymakers to adopt a carefully selected combination of fiscal, monetary, and prudential policy tools to address these challenges [1] - According to the Bank for International Settlements, by the end of 2023, financial assets held by non-bank financial intermediaries are expected to amount to approximately 225% of global output, compared to about 175% for more strictly regulated banks, with the non-bank sector surpassing banks around 2011 [1] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability Report indicates that if systemic cracks appear, banks' exposure to non-bank financial institutions could pose a significant threat to their capital base [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that Oracle Corporation's debt risk indicator reached a three-year high in November, and unless the company alleviates investor concerns regarding its substantial AI expenditures, the situation is expected to worsen by 2026 [1] Group 1: Debt and Credit Risk - The cost of default insurance for Oracle's debt over the next five years rose to 1.25 percentage points, reflecting growing concerns among banks and investors about the company's borrowing to fund its AI ambitions [1] - Analysts warn that the price of five-year credit default swaps (CDS) could exceed 1.5 percentage points in the short term and may approach 2 percentage points if communication regarding its financing strategy remains limited as the new year progresses [1] - The historical high for Oracle's CDS was 1.98 percentage points in 2008, indicating significant market anxiety [1] Group 2: Financing and Investment Activities - Oracle raised $18 billion in the U.S. high-grade bond market in September and secured another $18 billion in project financing loans for a data center park in New Mexico, where Oracle will be a tenant [2] - Banks are also providing an additional $38 billion loan package to support the development of data centers by Vantage Data Centers in Texas and Wisconsin, which is likely driving the recent surge in Oracle's CDS trading volume [2] - Analysts note that the construction loans related to Oracle are becoming increasingly important as a hedge against credit risk [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The performance of Oracle's CDS has lagged behind the broader investment-grade CDX index, and the company's bonds have underperformed the Bloomberg high-grade bond index, reflecting growing concerns [4] - These worries have begun to impact Oracle's stock price, potentially prompting management to announce a financing plan during the upcoming earnings call, including details on the "Star Gate" project, data centers, and capital expenditures [4] - Analysts previously recommended a "basis trade" strategy for purchasing Oracle bonds and CDS but now suggest that directly buying CDS is a more straightforward trading strategy [4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs experienced their worst month of fund outflows since their introduction nearly two years ago, adding further pressure to an already weak cryptocurrency market [1][2] Group 1: Fund Outflows - In November, investors withdrew $3.5 billion from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs, nearly matching the record $3.6 billion outflow set in February of this year [2] - BlackRock's Bitcoin fund, IBIT, which holds about 60% of the assets in this category, saw $2.2 billion in redemptions, indicating it may record its worst monthly performance unless there is a significant reversal [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The outflow data confirms that the "frenzied sentiment earlier this year has completely faded," according to Nick Ruck from LVRG Research [2] - Bitcoin is also set to record its worst monthly performance since the collapse of the cryptocurrency industry in 2022, which was marked by the downfall of several companies, including FTX [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The relationship between ETF outflows and price declines creates a self-reinforcing cycle; for every $1 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, the price tends to drop by approximately 3.4% [5] - Citigroup's Alex Saunders has set a bearish year-end target of $82,000 for Bitcoin, assuming zero inflows [5] Group 4: Trading Activity - Last week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record trading volume of $11.5 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $8 billion and experiencing $122 million in outflows [5] - Despite the high trading volume indicating short-term demand, the redemptions from IBIT highlight a significant shift in institutional preferences away from leading funds, suggesting that confidence has not fully returned [5]

Core Insights - As of the end of 2024, hedge funds in the Cayman Islands are projected to hold more U.S. Treasury securities than reported by official U.S. data, potentially exceeding it by $1.4 trillion [1] - The holdings of these funds are expected to reach $1.85 trillion by December, having increased by $1 trillion since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury reports only $423 billion [1] - The Cayman Islands has become the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, surpassing China, Japan, and the UK [1] Group 1 - The discrepancy in reported figures may arise from official data not fully capturing transactions related to basis trading [1] - Hedge funds engage in basis trading by shorting U.S. Treasury futures and buying the underlying securities to profit from the price difference [1] - The purchased U.S. Treasuries are used as collateral in the repo market to finance basis trading, complicating the tracking of ownership [1] Group 2 - According to the researchers, while custodians may perceive the Treasuries as sold, the actual ownership may still reside with the hedge funds [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury's data significantly underestimates the amount of U.S. government debt held by hedge funds registered in the Cayman Islands, with an estimated underreporting of approximately $1.4 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's report highlights that the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data fails to capture the dominance of Cayman Islands hedge funds in basis trading, which has raised concerns among regulators [1][2] Group 1: Underestimation of Debt Holdings - As of the end of 2024, hedge funds in the Cayman Islands are estimated to hold $1.85 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $1 trillion since 2022 [3] - The report indicates that Cayman Islands hedge funds have become the marginal foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing the holdings of China, Japan, and the UK [3][4] - The discrepancy between TIC data and reports to the SEC regarding the amount of U.S. debt held by these funds has widened to nearly $1.4 trillion [3] Group 2: Basis Trading Concerns - Basis trading, which involves leveraging to exploit price differences between Treasury futures and cash bonds, has been a source of concern for regulators since at least 2018 due to its potential to trigger broader financial instability during market downturns [2] - The reliance on leverage by hedge funds in basis trading has raised alarms for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, especially following market instability linked to these trades in March 2020 [2] - The TIC data serves as a primary source for understanding cross-border capital flows, and the underestimation of Cayman hedge fund holdings poses a significant obstacle for researchers and policymakers analyzing these flows [2]

Core Insights - Defiance has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on "basis trading" strategies, one linked to Bitcoin and the other to Ethereum [1] Group 1: ETF Details - The proposed ETFs will allow investors to engage in a strategy that capitalizes on the price differences between the spot market and futures contracts, aiming for stable returns while minimizing exposure to significant price volatility [1] - The trading codes for the ETFs are set to be "NBIT" for the Bitcoin-related fund and "DETH" for the Ethereum-related fund [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Bitcoin ETF will purchase shares of Bitcoin spot funds, such as BlackRock's IBIT, and short Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1] - Expected returns from the Bitcoin ETF will derive from the price differences between the two markets, influenced by factors such as volatility and demand dynamics [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].