1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, the market is oscillating. There are opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. It's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and gradually enter the opportunity to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils for spot - futures trading [5][10] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is improving with cost support. The trading strategy is to go short - term long on dips [6][10] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market sentiment is further cooling. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and stop profiting on the previously recommended spot - futures positive arbitrage positions [7][10] - For iron ore, the price is mainly oscillating at a high level. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and operate within the oscillating range instead of chasing high or low [8][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On March 30, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3168 yuan/ton with a rise of 20 yuan (0.64%); HC2610 at 3323 yuan/ton with a rise of 17 yuan (0.51%); J2609 at 1842 yuan/ton with a rise of 6 yuan (0.33%); JM2609 at 1352.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.22%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton with a rise of 18 yuan (0.58%); HC2605 at 3308 yuan/ton with a rise of 11 yuan (0.33%); J2605 at 1753.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3.5 yuan (0.20%); JM2605 at 1214 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan (- 0.33%) [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: On March 30, RB2605 - 2610 was - 29 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 15 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 138.5 yuan/ton with a fall of 0.5 yuan [1] - **Spreads, Ratios and Profits**: On March 30, the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 169 yuan/ton with a fall of 6 yuan; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.86 with a rise of 0.01; the coal to coke ratio was 1.44 with a rise of 0.01; the rebar on - paper profit was - 136.95 yuan/ton with a rise of 12.6 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 138.88 yuan/ton with a rise of 8.15 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On March 30, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3230 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420 yuan/ton with a fall of 50 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton with a fall of 20 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan/ton with no change; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; the billet - to - finished - product spread was 290 yuan/ton with a rise of 60 yuan [1] - **Other Spot Prices**: On March 30, the price of ferrosilicon was 670 yuan/ton with no change; silicomanganese was 727 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal at Ganqimao Port (Meng 5 raw coal) was 1141 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan; Meng 5 clean coal at Ganqimao Port was 1308 yuan/ton with no change; Meng 5 clean coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1450 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB iron ore was 792 yuan/ton with a rise of 4 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On March 30, the HC main - contract basis was - 28 yuan/ton with a fall of 9 yuan; the RB main - contract basis was 111 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan; the J main - contract basis was - 180.87 yuan/ton with a fall of 1.5 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan [1] Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The spot price was stable on Monday with a small increase in most regions. The market sentiment was generally stable. The weekly production, sales and inventory showed improvement, and the supply - demand boom could be maintained. The plate apparent demand reached the seasonal peak, while the building materials still had room to grow. The cost support fluctuated due to geopolitical issues, and the single - side trading shifted to an oscillating strategy. There were opportunities to go long on the basis or conduct spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [5] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand situation improved. The ferrosilicon industry's weekly supply increased slightly, while the silicomanganese production decreased slightly. The steel mill demand improved significantly, and the non - steel demand also provided marginal support. The inventory pressure was controllable, and the cost was supported by the strong coal and manganese ore prices [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market sentiment further cooled. The auction prices mostly fell. The futures market was dominated by the Middle - East situation. The coal - coke 05 contract was weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the 05 delivery logic. It was recommended to stop profiting on the previously recommended coke selling hedging strategy as the basis strengthened [7] - **Iron Ore**: The price was oscillating at a high level. It was difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, and it was also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. It was not recommended to chase long on the iron ore futures, and it was advisable to operate within the oscillating range [8]

Group 1 - The core concern is that corporate bonds are facing a sharp decline risk as liquidity providers are increasingly replaced by liquidity takers, with similarities drawn to the pre-2008 financial crisis era [1][2] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that the current situation, where everyone is making easy profits, is reminiscent of the years leading up to the financial crisis, urging caution [1][2] - Credit spreads are at historical lows, and there is little room for further increases, with banks and brokers significantly reducing their presence in the corporate bond market [2][5] Group 2 - The scale of corporate bonds held by brokers and dealers has drastically decreased from over $300 billion during the global financial crisis to between $70 billion and $80 billion today [2][5] - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the largest holders of corporate bonds, surpassing U.S. banks by approximately 25%, with a total holding of about $2.5 trillion [2][5] - The rise of ETFs has occurred alongside a decline in participation from banks, pension funds, and foreign investors, which has contributed to liquidity mismatches in the market [2][5] Group 3 - The private credit market, valued at $1.8 trillion, is showing signs of issues, particularly in the technology sector, where companies previously seen as attractive debtors are now facing increased competition and potential commoditization [6][7] - Private credit ETFs have seen rapid growth, increasing from nearly zero to a market value of $1.5 billion to $2 billion in just two years, despite the inherent liquidity mismatches [7] - The increase in U.S. banks' loans to non-bank financial institutions, including business development companies (BDCs), could lead to spillover effects in the listed credit market [7][9] Group 4 - The rising volatility of individual stocks and the potential for a sell-off in the credit market could lead to a rush for exits by funds and other holders seeking to avoid significant losses [9] - The lack of market makers to stabilize declines raises the risk of a sell-off turning into a crash, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene again as it did in 2020 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hetech Group has submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a main board listing, aiming to raise funds for various strategic initiatives [3][4]. Company Overview - Hetech Group is a leading global commodity service provider and trader in China, dealing with over 285 types of physical goods, including black metals, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and others [5][6]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, Hetech Group ranks as the fifth largest commodity service provider in China by trade volume in 2024, and holds significant positions in various categories such as being the fourth largest in steel services and the second largest in steel exports [3][5][6]. Business Operations - The company has established a global network with subsidiaries and offices in 14 countries and regions, enabling it to expand its business and deepen market penetration [8][10]. - Hetech Group serves approximately 20,000 clients across almost all provinces in China and over 80 countries and regions [12][13]. Financial Performance - For the ten months ending October 31, 2025, Hetech Group reported revenues of approximately RMB 230.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.3%, while net profit reached approximately RMB 1.17 billion, up 41.7% year-on-year [3][14]. Fundraising Purpose - The net proceeds from the IPO are intended for upgrading and expanding the logistics network, exploring potential investments and acquisitions, consolidating and expanding the commodity portfolio, enhancing digital and information technology capabilities, and deepening collaboration with upstream and downstream partners [4][6]. Competitive Advantages - Hetech Group benefits from a broad supplier and customer network that supports its global operations, strong industry research capabilities, integrated service capabilities, effective risk management, and a visionary management team [15].

香港交易及結算所有限公司、香港聯合交易所有限公司與證券及期貨事務監察委員會對本申請版本的內容 概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何意見，並明確表示概不就因本申請版本全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Hangzhou CIEC Group Co., Ltd.* 杭州熱聯集團股份有限公司 （「本公司」） （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 的申請版本 警告 本申請版本乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）及證券及期貨事務監察委員會（「證監會」）的要求 而刊發，僅用作提供資訊予香港公眾人士。 本申請版本為草擬本，其內所載資料並不完整，亦可能會作出重大變動。 閣下閱覽本文件，即代表 閣 下知悉、接納並向本公司、本公司的獨家保薦人、保薦人兼整體協調人、整體協調人、顧問或包銷團成員 表示同意： 本公司招股章程根據香港法例第32章公司（清盤及雜項條文）條例送呈香港公司註冊處處長登記前，本公 司不會向香港公眾人士提出要約或邀請。倘於適當時候向香港公眾人士提出要約或邀請，準投資者務請僅 依據與香港公司註冊處處長註冊的本公司招股章程作出投資決定；招股章程的文本將於發售期內向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures up 0.19%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.11% [1][2] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 1.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.95%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 0.24% [2] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.44% to $63.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.31% to $67.54 per barrel [3] Debt Market Insights - The steepening of the US Treasury yield curve is nearing a four-year high, driven by uncertainty in bond issuance, with the 10-year yield rising while the 2-year yield remains stable due to Federal Reserve policy expectations [4] - The market is closely watching the US Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement for potential adjustments in long-term bond auction sizes, which could impact government financing costs [4] Software Sector Concerns - A panic over AI replacing software is causing a significant sell-off in global software stocks, with Morgan Stanley noting that investor sentiment has turned extremely negative [4] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted the notion that AI will replace software, arguing that AI will rely on existing software rather than replace it entirely [5] Geopolitical and Economic Outlook - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that geopolitical turmoil may persist for the next decade, prompting clients to diversify their investment portfolios away from US assets [6] - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned about the risks associated with basis trading, highlighting the potential for a $3 trillion leveraged financing crisis in the bond market [7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $111.45 billion, a 15.53% year-over-year increase, with a focus on Google Cloud's order backlog [9] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) forecasts a 27% increase in sales by 2026, reaching $80 billion to $83 billion, driven by strong performance in its weight loss and diabetes medications [10] - Uber (UBER.US) reported a 22% increase in Q4 bookings but issued a weak earnings outlook, leading to a 6% drop in pre-market stock price [11] - AMD (AMD.US) reported a 34% increase in Q4 sales but expressed concerns about its Q1 outlook, which fell short of market expectations [12] - Lumentum (LITE.US) exceeded expectations with Q2 revenue of $665 million, a 65% year-over-year increase, and provided strong guidance for Q3 [13] - Electronic Arts (EA.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue and earnings below expectations, but strong pre-order numbers for its new game helped mitigate losses [14] - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance, driven by demand for automation technology [15] - Novartis (NVS.US) warned of declining profits in 2026 due to increased competition from generics [16] - UBS (UBS.US) reported a 56% increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a $3 billion stock buyback plan [17] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US ADP employment change, December durable goods orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI [21][22][23]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures up 0.19%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.11% [1][2] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 1.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.24% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil rose 0.44% to $63.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.31% to $67.54 per barrel [3] Software Sector - A panic over AI replacing software is causing a significant sell-off in global software stocks, with Morgan Stanley stating the industry is in a state of "presumed guilty" [4] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that AI will replace software, calling such ideas "illogical" and emphasizing that AI will rely on existing software [5] Geopolitical and Economic Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that geopolitical turmoil may persist for the next decade, prompting clients to diversify investments away from US assets [6] - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned about the risks of basis trading, which could trigger a crisis in the bond market due to leveraged financing [7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $111.45 billion, a 15.53% year-over-year increase, with a focus on Google Cloud's order backlog [8] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) forecasts a 27% increase in sales by 2026, reaching $80-83 billion, driven by strong performance in weight loss and diabetes medications [9] - Uber (UBER.US) reported a 22% increase in Q4 bookings but issued a weak earnings outlook, leading to a 6% drop in stock price [10] - AMD (AMD.US) reported a 34% increase in Q4 sales but expressed concerns over Q1 forecasts, which fell short of market expectations [11] - Lumentum (LITE.US) exceeded expectations with Q2 revenue of $665 million, a 65% increase, and provided strong guidance for Q3 [12] - Electronic Arts (EA.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue below expectations but strong pre-order numbers driven by the release of "Battlefield 6" [13] - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance [14] - Novartis (NVS.US) warned of profit declines in 2026 due to increased competition from generics [15] - UBS (UBS.US) reported a 56% increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a $3 billion stock buyback plan [16] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US ADP employment change, durable goods orders, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI [20][21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) urges global financial policymakers to closely examine the risks associated with leveraged bond bets, particularly in the government bond repo market, which has seen significant cash borrowing by hedge funds [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The FSB's report identifies vulnerabilities in the repo market, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring capabilities to ensure the market's functionality, especially during periods of stress [1][3]. - The report highlights that hedge funds' cash borrowing in the repo market has reached approximately $3 trillion, accounting for about 25% of their total assets [1][2]. Group 2: Leveraged Bond Trading - Leveraged bond trading, as defined by the FSB, involves using government bonds as collateral to significantly increase positions through repos, primarily executed by hedge funds [4][5]. - The FSB expresses concern that leveraged investors may be forced to sell large amounts of assets to meet liquidity demands, potentially exacerbating market volatility during periods of stress [3][4]. Group 3: Market Strategies - The report outlines popular strategies among hedge funds, including on-the-run vs. off-the-run arbitrage, yield curve trading, and cash-futures basis trading, with the latter being a key focus due to its high leverage [3][4]. - Cash-futures basis trading involves going long on cash bonds, shorting corresponding treasury futures, and using repo financing to amplify leverage, aiming to profit from small price differences [4][5]. Group 4: Proposed Regulatory Measures - The FSB and the Bank of England have proposed minimum haircuts for collateral in repo transactions to limit the accumulation of leverage in the market, a suggestion met with strong opposition from hedge funds and traditional asset managers [6][7]. - The report encourages central banks and fiscal authorities to closely monitor various indicators related to market activities and the resilience of trading structures [7].

Core Insights - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) urges global financial policymakers to closely examine the risks associated with leveraged bond bets, particularly in the government bond repo market, which has seen significant interest from hedge funds and other large institutional investors [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The FSB identifies a total cash borrowing scale of $3 trillion in the repo market by hedge funds, which constitutes approximately 25% of their total assets [1][2] - Leveraged strategies, such as cash-futures basis trading, are highlighted as popular among hedge fund clients, with concerns that forced asset sales during liquidity pressures could exacerbate market volatility [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Recommendations - The FSB emphasizes the need for stricter scrutiny of the repo market's vulnerabilities and leverage risks, particularly in relation to U.S. Treasury market basis trading [2][5] - The report suggests that central banks and fiscal authorities should monitor various indicators related to market activities and the resilience of trading structures [7] Group 3: Proposed Measures - The FSB and the Bank of England have proposed the idea of minimum haircuts on collateral valuations in repo transactions to limit accumulated leverage in the market [6] - There is strong opposition from hedge funds and traditional asset management sectors against such measures, citing potential harm to liquidity [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion and is rapidly approaching $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt level and the implications for the financial system [1][3]. Debt Issuance and Buyer Behavior - The U.S. Treasury is planning a new round of debt issuance, but traditional large buyers like Japan and the Federal Reserve are reducing their holdings, with Japan cutting over $5 billion in November 2024 and the Fed engaging in quantitative tightening [3][10]. - The absence of major buyers raises questions about who is purchasing the increasing amount of debt [3]. Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds are heavily involved in the current debt market, engaging in basis trading that has reached historical highs. This involves using high leverage to exploit small price differences between spot and futures markets [5]. - Morgan Stanley has reported that high-leverage positions now account for about 6% of the total tradable U.S. Treasury market, which is concerning given the market's role as a cornerstone of the global financial system [5][10]. Systemic Risks - Historical data indicates that similar trading practices contributed to market disruptions in March 2020, leading to a liquidity crisis that required significant intervention from the Federal Reserve [7]. - Current debt levels and leverage are significantly higher than in 2020, suggesting that any deviation in interest rates or unexpected market events could trigger a rapid sell-off by hedge funds, exacerbating liquidity issues [7][9]. Financial Stability Concerns - The Federal Reserve is aware of the systemic risks posed by non-bank financial institutions, particularly hedge funds, but is constrained by the need to continue issuing debt to manage the large fiscal deficit [10][12]. - The rising interest payments on the national debt are approaching military spending levels, indicating a precarious fiscal situation that could lead to broader economic instability [12]. Market Vulnerability - The current financial structure is likened to a fragile tower built on sand, where a single misstep could lead to a catastrophic collapse, affecting all market participants [12][14]. - The reliance on high-leverage trading strategies by hedge funds poses a significant risk to the overall financial system, as any sudden market movement could lead to widespread panic and asset liquidation [14].