近期，"反内卷"主题持续升温，纯苯产业链供需格局也正面临重构。恰逢行业变革的关键转折点，7月8 日，纯苯期货和期权在大连商品交易所挂牌上市，为产业链企业风险管理带来新机遇。 日前，中国证券报记者跟随大商所调研团，一路奔赴浙江、江苏及山东等化工产业聚集区，实地走访了 多家纯苯产业链上下游的代表性企业，了解它们运用衍生品工具的实践情况。 结合此次实地调研以及此前采访的相关产业链企业，中国证券报记者了解到，纯苯期货上市一个多月以 来，部分产业链企业已开始积极参与衍生品工具运用，比如通过低位建立纯苯虚拟库存、高位卖出苯乙 烯期货实现加工利润对锁，另有企业通过开展基差交易及进口利润锁定，探索价格管理新路径。部分产 业界人士还对纯苯期货发展前景充满期待，认为其有望强化实体经济抗风险能力，提升中国在全球化工 品市场的价格话语权。 ● 本报记者 马爽 行业供需格局或生变 近期，有关"反内卷"题材持续发酵，市场对淘汰落后产能的预期升温，带动多个商品价格上涨，或受此 影响，纯苯价格也随之走高。文华财经数据显示，截至8月22日收盘，纯苯期货主力合约BZ2603报收 6208元/吨，较上市首日收盘价5931元/吨上涨4.67%，相较 ...

天胶早报- 2025年8月21日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14600，基差-1075 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

Group 1 - Recent cotton futures prices have experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions, leading to intense long-short market battles [1] - Cotton consumption averaged around 750,000 tons per month from March to May, with June consumption at 697,000 tons and 320,000 tons in the first half of July, indicating that the first half of the year exceeded expectations [1] - The strong cotton consumption during the "golden three silver four" months is attributed to good export data and increasing production capacity in Xinjiang, which is expected to reach 30 million spindles by 2025, creating a localized tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The cotton spinning mills' operating rate has decreased to 47.8% as of July 25, down to last year's levels, while the overall weaving mills' operating rate is at 44.4%, also lower than the previous year [1] - Raw material inventory for spinning mills is at 30.8 days, with finished goods inventory at 30.1 days, indicating a slowdown in accumulation [1] - Weaving mills have a cotton yarn inventory of 5.4 days, with a slight replenishment, while the finished goods inventory for cotton fabric is at 37.2 days, showing significant accumulation, particularly in the fabric segment, leading to a lack of confidence in the market outlook [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market discussions regarding the ability of the 2509 contract bulls to take delivery, with no significant cancellation of warehouse receipts observed, but an increase in effective forecasts [2] - The 2509 contract's delivery logic suggests that the market may revert to a backwardation state, with expectations of a return to near parity levels [2] - The market anticipates a bumper crop of 7.2 million tons for the new season, with favorable planting conditions and expectations of early new cotton sales, although high basis levels complicate next year's basis trading [2] Group 4 - The withdrawal of bulls from the 09 contract has confirmed the lack of cost-effectiveness in taking delivery, while the validation of the 9-1 price spread remains ongoing [3] - As September approaches, market focus will shift to new cotton negotiations, with potential for localized rush buying [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound momentum of US soybean futures is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Domestic DCE bean meal M09 may maintain a wide - range shock, and the far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased significantly. For live pigs, the short - term price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE bean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 3026 yuan/ton. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2509 contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 13810 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 13.84 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.40% to 991 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week. There will be rain, and the temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise later [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased by 0.36% to 1071000 tons, and contract volume increased by 44.53% to 6557000 tons. On August 6, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased. On August 5, domestic mainstream oil mills' bean meal trading volume soared, with the basis trading volume increasing significantly. As of the week of August 1, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 1.12% from the previous week. Brazil's 2025/26 and 2024/25 soybean sales ratios are lower than the same period last year. As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean and bean meal imports are lower than the same period last year. Pig prices are expected to be weak in the first ten - day of August and may rebound in the last ten - day. In the week of July 31, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate increased. In July, the global and Asian manufacturing PMIs decreased. In June, US exports and imports decreased [5][6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on bean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as Chinese soybean and bean meal inventories [10][12][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Bean meal: US soybean futures are under pressure from demand concerns, and the domestic DCE bean meal M09 may be range - bound. The far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased due to oil mills' promotion and market concerns about future soybean supply. Live pigs: Supply may first decrease and then increase, and demand recovery is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is facing a significant debt crisis, planning to borrow over $1 trillion in the next three months, which is more than double the amount borrowed in April [1][3] - The market's confidence in U.S. debt is wavering, as evidenced by the spike in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% and 30-year yields surpassing 5%, indicating investor skepticism [3] - The offshore RMB has appreciated by 3.5% from 7.4 to 7.1 against the dollar, reflecting a shift in currency dynamics amid U.S. debt issuance [5] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $756.3 billion, the lowest since 2009, while simultaneously issuing its own dollar-denominated bonds [5] - The global share of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 72% to 58%, while the use of RMB for settlements in ASEAN countries has surged to 38% [8] - Chinese enterprises hold approximately 15 trillion RMB in overseas funds, with predictions that a stronger offshore RMB could trigger significant capital repatriation [8][10] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is widening, raising concerns about the sustainability of its debt strategy, especially as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [10][12] - China's fiscal strategy focuses on infrastructure and high-tech investments, with a fiscal deficit rate increase from 3% to 4%, leading to notable domestic market growth [12] - The ongoing capital movement and the potential for RMB appreciation could positively impact domestic stock and real estate markets [12][14] Group 4 - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, with the dollar's dominance being challenged and the internationalization of the RMB accelerating [15]

Core Viewpoint - The successful signing of a long-term contract between Jingbo Petrochemical and Binhua New Materials coincided with the launch of propylene futures, marking a significant step towards establishing a stable pricing mechanism in the propylene market [1][6]. Group 1: Contract Negotiation Background - The negotiation for the propylene supply price between Jingbo Petrochemical and Binhua New Materials lasted for a year and a half, focusing on establishing a stable cooperative relationship to ensure orderly production operations [2]. - Binhua New Materials, as the supplier, aimed to lock in profits and stabilize revenue, while Jingbo Petrochemical sought to secure raw material costs to ensure continuous production amid operational inconsistencies [2][3]. - The key issue in negotiations was the lack of a mutually recognized spot price, leading to difficulties in establishing a pricing benchmark, which resulted in prolonged stalemates [2][3]. Group 2: Introduction of Futures - The introduction of propylene futures was seen as a crucial opportunity to resolve pricing disputes, with both companies recognizing the potential of futures markets to provide a fair pricing benchmark [4]. - Following the announcement of the futures launch, both companies quickly resumed negotiations and reached a preliminary consensus on a basis pricing model [4][6]. - The negotiation process involved extensive discussions on key elements such as basis model construction, quality delivery adjustments, and flexible delivery periods [4]. Group 3: Successful Contract Signing - On July 22, the propylene futures were officially launched, and the contract was signed using a "futures price + basis" pricing model, with the basis set at -218 yuan/ton, reflecting a more market-aligned price than previous disputes [6]. - The successful signing of the contract allowed both companies to mitigate the risks associated with absolute price fluctuations, enabling them to focus on managing product price differentials and quality adjustments [6][7]. - This collaboration marked a shift from a competitive stance to a partnership approach in managing market risks, highlighting the industry's growing acceptance of financial pricing tools [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].

Core Insights - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in May, particularly from Canada, indicating resilient demand despite market concerns over the Trump administration's policies [1] - The total amount of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign investors reached $9.05 trillion in May, an increase of $32.4 billion from April, nearly offsetting the previous month's decline [1] - The TIC data reflects the demand for U.S. Treasuries amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff implementations, with over 30% of U.S. debt held by foreign entities [1] Summary by Category Foreign Holdings - Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $0.5 billion to $1.135 trillion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2] - The United Kingdom's holdings rose by $1.7 billion to $809.4 billion in May [3] - Mainland China's holdings decreased by $0.9 billion to $756.3 billion, continuing a trend of holding below $1 trillion since April 2022 [4] - Canada emerged as a major buyer, increasing its holdings by $61.7 billion to a record high of $430.1 billion [4] Market Dynamics - The TIC data indicates that foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in long-term U.S. securities in May, with private foreign investors contributing $287.5 billion [6] - U.S. residents reduced their net purchases of foreign long-term securities by $59.1 billion in May [6] - The overall net inflow of foreign capital into the U.S. in May was $311.1 billion, with private foreign inflows at $333.2 billion and official outflows at $22.1 billion [6]

Group 1 - The concept of "basis" is increasingly discussed and utilized in the cotton textile industry, reflecting the deep integration of cotton futures and the spot market, which is profoundly impacting the industry's development [1] - The cotton spinning industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, influenced by regional capacity restructuring and increased competition, as well as complex international conditions and rising tariff barriers [2][3] - The correlation between cotton futures prices and the domestic spot price index CC Index3128B has remained high, with a correlation coefficient above 0.9, indicating a strong relationship between the two markets [3] Group 2 - Cotton enterprises are actively exploring new models of utilizing futures, with companies like Zhongmian Group adopting a resource control model to enhance their operational stability and risk management [4] - Large trading companies are integrating futures tools into their operations, using warehouse receipt pledge financing to support upstream cotton purchases and employing basis trading and options trading to lock in profits and mitigate risks [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting flexible strategies to participate in the futures market, often relying on large trading firms for risk management and financing through warehouse receipt pledge financing [6] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has expanded its business model to provide new financing tools for cotton textile enterprises, addressing their significant financing needs [6][7] - In 2018, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched a comprehensive business platform that allows entities to trade warehouse receipts, catering to diverse procurement and financing needs [7] - The scale of warehouse receipt repurchase business reached 3.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a significant portion attributed to cotton warehouse receipts, indicating a growing reliance on warehouse receipt financing among enterprises [7]