智通财经APP注意到，随着流动性提供者日益被流动性接受者取代，公司债券正面临急剧下跌的风险。 摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙警告称，当前情况与 2008 年金融危机前的时代有相似之处。他的担忧并非空穴 来风，但如果投资者只看信用利差(目前正接近历史低点)，是察觉不到这一点的。 戴蒙在公司年度投资者更新会上坦言："当所有人都在轻松赚钱、表现亮眼时...你会觉得自己很傻，但 这感觉确实很棒。"他接着说："然后当我思考所有正在发生的因素时，我会深吸一口气告诉自己：'小 心！'遗憾的是，我们在2005、2006和2007年确实目睹过几乎相同的情况——水涨船高，人人都在大笔 盈利。我看到有些人正在做蠢事。他们只是为了创造净利息收入而在做愚蠢的事。" 事实上，自 2024 年以来，在约 16 万亿美元的流通规模中，ETF 是唯一一个持仓占比上升的主要板 块。其他可能提供流动性或寻求在价格下跌后机会性买入的板块——如银行、养老基金和海外投资者 ——都减少了市场参与度。 银行近乎"逃离"公司债市场发生在金融危机之后。这归因于限制自营交易活动的《沃尔克规则》，以及 要求银行持有更多高质量流动性资产(HQLA)的强化流动性监管，同时持 ...

2月9日，热联集团向港交所递交了招股书，计划在主板挂牌上市；由中金公司担任独家保荐人。 热联集团是国内领先的全球化大宗商品产业服务商及交易商。热联集团采购及销售超过285种实物商品，包括黑色金属及原材料、化工品类、有色金属及其 他品类。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2024年贸易量计，热联集团是中国第五大大宗商品产业服务商及交易商；是中国第四大钢材类产业服务商及交易 商，同时是中国第二大钢材类出口产业服务商及交易商；是中国第三大铁矿砂类产业服务商及交易商；亦是中国第三大橡胶类产业服务商及交易商。 据披露，热联集团已经依托广泛的供应商及客户网络建立全球化网络布局，这使其能够拓展业务、深化市场渗透及追求长期发展。截至2026年1月31日，热 联集团在14个国家和地区设有附属公司及办事机构。于往绩记录期间，热联集团于中国几乎所有省份及超过80个国家及地区开展贸易。于往绩记录期间各期 间，热联集团依托全球化网络，为约2万家客户提供服务。 业绩方面，截至2025年10月31日止10个月，热联集团录得收入约2302.73亿元人民币(单位下同)，同比增长约7.3%；净利润约11.72亿元，同比增长约41.7%。 HITEC ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司、香港聯合交易所有限公司與證券及期貨事務監察委員會對本申請版本的內容 概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何意見，並明確表示概不就因本申請版本全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Hangzhou CIEC Group Co., Ltd.* 杭州熱聯集團股份有限公司 （「本公司」） （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 的申請版本 警告 本申請版本乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）及證券及期貨事務監察委員會（「證監會」）的要求 而刊發，僅用作提供資訊予香港公眾人士。 本申請版本為草擬本，其內所載資料並不完整，亦可能會作出重大變動。 閣下閱覽本文件，即代表 閣 下知悉、接納並向本公司、本公司的獨家保薦人、保薦人兼整體協調人、整體協調人、顧問或包銷團成員 表示同意： 本公司招股章程根據香港法例第32章公司（清盤及雜項條文）條例送呈香港公司註冊處處長登記前，本公 司不會向香港公眾人士提出要約或邀請。倘於適當時候向香港公眾人士提出要約或邀請，準投資者務請僅 依據與香港公司註冊處處長註冊的本公司招股章程作出投資決定；招股章程的文本將於發售期內向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

1. 2月4日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%，标普500指数期货涨0.19%，纳 指期货跌0.11%。 全球软件股恐慌性抛售蔓延!黄仁勋驳斥AI取代软件论，称其"不合逻辑"。在全球软件股于周二遭遇剧烈抛售之后，英 伟达(NVDA.US)CEO黄仁勋驳斥了人工智能将取代软件及相关工具的担忧，称这种想法"不合逻辑"。此次抛售部分源于 AI 开发商 Anthropic 上周发布的聊天机器人更新，这加剧了市场对 AI 驱动的数据和专业服务行业颠覆的恐惧。抛售潮 在周三进一步扩大，波及了印度、日本和中国的软件股。黄仁勋在旧金山由思科系统主办的人工智能会议上发表讲话时 表示，担心 AI 会降低软件公司重要性的想法是误导性的。他认为，AI 将继续依赖现有的软件，而不是从头开始重建基 础工具。 | ■ US 30 | 49,362.20 | 49,456.50 | 49,248.30 | +121.10 | +0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 를 US 500 | 6,930.70 | 6.941.80 | 6,908. ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures up 0.19%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.11% [1][2] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 1.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.24% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil rose 0.44% to $63.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.31% to $67.54 per barrel [3] Software Sector - A panic over AI replacing software is causing a significant sell-off in global software stocks, with Morgan Stanley stating the industry is in a state of "presumed guilty" [4] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that AI will replace software, calling such ideas "illogical" and emphasizing that AI will rely on existing software [5] Geopolitical and Economic Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that geopolitical turmoil may persist for the next decade, prompting clients to diversify investments away from US assets [6] - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned about the risks of basis trading, which could trigger a crisis in the bond market due to leveraged financing [7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $111.45 billion, a 15.53% year-over-year increase, with a focus on Google Cloud's order backlog [8] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) forecasts a 27% increase in sales by 2026, reaching $80-83 billion, driven by strong performance in weight loss and diabetes medications [9] - Uber (UBER.US) reported a 22% increase in Q4 bookings but issued a weak earnings outlook, leading to a 6% drop in stock price [10] - AMD (AMD.US) reported a 34% increase in Q4 sales but expressed concerns over Q1 forecasts, which fell short of market expectations [11] - Lumentum (LITE.US) exceeded expectations with Q2 revenue of $665 million, a 65% increase, and provided strong guidance for Q3 [12] - Electronic Arts (EA.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue below expectations but strong pre-order numbers driven by the release of "Battlefield 6" [13] - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance [14] - Novartis (NVS.US) warned of profit declines in 2026 due to increased competition from generics [15] - UBS (UBS.US) reported a 56% increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a $3 billion stock buyback plan [16] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US ADP employment change, durable goods orders, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI [20][21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) urges global financial policymakers to closely examine the risks associated with leveraged bond bets, particularly in the government bond repo market, which has seen significant cash borrowing by hedge funds [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The FSB's report identifies vulnerabilities in the repo market, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring capabilities to ensure the market's functionality, especially during periods of stress [1][3]. - The report highlights that hedge funds' cash borrowing in the repo market has reached approximately $3 trillion, accounting for about 25% of their total assets [1][2]. Group 2: Leveraged Bond Trading - Leveraged bond trading, as defined by the FSB, involves using government bonds as collateral to significantly increase positions through repos, primarily executed by hedge funds [4][5]. - The FSB expresses concern that leveraged investors may be forced to sell large amounts of assets to meet liquidity demands, potentially exacerbating market volatility during periods of stress [3][4]. Group 3: Market Strategies - The report outlines popular strategies among hedge funds, including on-the-run vs. off-the-run arbitrage, yield curve trading, and cash-futures basis trading, with the latter being a key focus due to its high leverage [3][4]. - Cash-futures basis trading involves going long on cash bonds, shorting corresponding treasury futures, and using repo financing to amplify leverage, aiming to profit from small price differences [4][5]. Group 4: Proposed Regulatory Measures - The FSB and the Bank of England have proposed minimum haircuts for collateral in repo transactions to limit the accumulation of leverage in the market, a suggestion met with strong opposition from hedge funds and traditional asset managers [6][7]. - The report encourages central banks and fiscal authorities to closely monitor various indicators related to market activities and the resilience of trading structures [7].

智通财经APP获悉，全球最高级别金融稳定监管机构敦促全球各政府部门的金融政策制定者们，更加深 度且精准地审视对政府债券进行的那些规模达数万亿美元，且受到对冲基金及其他大型机构投资者们长 期青睐的以基差交易为代表杠杆型债券押注。据了解，全球金融稳定委员会(Financial Stability Board， 简称FSB)呼吁对市场参与者们在以政府债券作担保的回购协议(repurchase agreements，简称repo)中具体 承担的风险加强监管。 报告称，在美国金融市场，债券交易商们将"新券与旧券运行套利(on-the-run vs. off-the-run arbitrage)、 收益率曲线或久期交易，以及现券—期货基差交易"列为其对冲基金客户们最受欢迎的策略。在欧元 区，收益率曲线或久期交易占主导地位，而现券—期货基差交易也"普遍存在"。 全球最高级别金融稳定监管机构的核心担忧之一在于，面临短期内急剧流动性需求的杠杆投资者们可能 被迫出售更大规模资产以筹集资金。报告称，如果这些资产出售发生在市场已处于流动性压力背景下之 际，可能将会"加剧市场波动并导致不利的反馈循环"。 FSB在这里所援引并指出的"杠 ...

我问你个问题，你最近有没有盯着看美国财政部那个红得发烫的债务时钟？如果你没看，我帮你看了，那个数字已经跳过了36万亿美元，现在正 朝着37万亿美元一路狂奔。 我刚才查了一下美国财政部官网的数据，就在这几天，他们又在筹划新一轮的国债发行。但让我纳闷的是，这债发得越来越多，以前那些坐在前 排的大买家却集体失踪了。根据美国财政部公布的最新一期国际资本流动报告，也就是那个大家常说的报告，你会发现日本和我们都在减持。日 本在2024年11月减持了超过50亿美元，而我们也连续几个月在缩减规模。最离谱的是美联储，他们自己还在搞量化紧缩，也就是缩表，每个月都 在往外甩几百亿的国债。 既然大家都在撤，那到底是谁在买？ 我查到2020年3月的那场风暴。当时很多人以为市场连续熔断是因为疫情，但后来美联储和金融稳定委员会的分析报告说得清清楚楚，真正的导 火索就是这种基差交易爆仓了。当时因为市场波动稍微大了一点，这些基金为了补足保证金，被迫开始疯狂抛售现货美债，结果导致整个国债市 场直接休克，连买家都找不到了。最后还是美联储急了，直接印了几万亿美元进场救命。 你再看现在的情况。现在的债务规模是2020年的多少倍？杠杆头寸的规模又是当年 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel: The unilateral steel market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. With the seasonal factor becoming more prominent, the spot volume and price are weakening marginally. The market can be treated with an oscillating mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions. The hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure in the future [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market of coking coal and coke is weakening, and the futures market is also oscillating downward. The market is in the off-season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern due to the "resumption of production + replenishment" support. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is significant. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices of steel decreased slightly on Tuesday, and trading volume continued to cool down. The futures prices moved in a narrow range. The black sector is in an interval oscillation. Due to seasonal factors, the spot volume and price are weakening. The demand for building materials is decreasing seasonally. Steel mills still have the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through the basis. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Recently, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have been oscillating. The supply side has occasional fluctuations. The demand side is poor as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are not good, and the iron - water output adjustment pressure is large. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The alloy plants' profits are not good, but the production is still high. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. There are policy benefits and cost support, but the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase was shelved. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The online auction has more unsuccessful bids. The coking coal price index has decreased. The Mongolian coal market is still cold. On the futures side, with the high - level correction of silver, the market sentiment has cooled down. The market is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The coal mine supply is recovering, but the downstream procurement has slowed down. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of accelerated resumption of production in February and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment have a great impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will still be the root cause of the iron ore pressure. In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but in the long term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6].