美联储研究人员称，截至2024年底，开曼群岛的对冲基金持有的美国国债规模超过美国官方数据值，可 能比后者报告数值高了1.4万亿美元。Daniel Barth和Daniel Beltran等研究人员在10月15日的一篇报告中 写道，这些基金的持仓于12月达到1.85万亿美元，自2022年以来增加了1万亿美元。美国财政部的一份 报告称它们的持有量为4230亿美元。这些美联储研究人员表示，他们的数据显示，开曼群岛是美国最大 海外债主，超过了中国、日本和英国。 研究人员写道，存在这一出入可能是因为官方数据未完全反映 与所谓基差交易相关的交易；通过基差交易，对冲基金做空美国国债 期货并买入现券，从价差中获 利。他们补充说，对冲基金将买入的美债现券作为抵押品、在回购协议市场借钱，为基差交易融资。被 用作抵押品后，美债的所有权可能会难以追踪。上述研究人员表示，在托管人看来，它们可能已被出 售，但实际上所有权可能仍是对冲基金的。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury's data significantly underestimates the amount of U.S. government debt held by hedge funds registered in the Cayman Islands, with an estimated underreporting of approximately $1.4 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's report highlights that the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data fails to capture the dominance of Cayman Islands hedge funds in basis trading, which has raised concerns among regulators [1][2] Group 1: Underestimation of Debt Holdings - As of the end of 2024, hedge funds in the Cayman Islands are estimated to hold $1.85 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $1 trillion since 2022 [3] - The report indicates that Cayman Islands hedge funds have become the marginal foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing the holdings of China, Japan, and the UK [3][4] - The discrepancy between TIC data and reports to the SEC regarding the amount of U.S. debt held by these funds has widened to nearly $1.4 trillion [3] Group 2: Basis Trading Concerns - Basis trading, which involves leveraging to exploit price differences between Treasury futures and cash bonds, has been a source of concern for regulators since at least 2018 due to its potential to trigger broader financial instability during market downturns [2] - The reliance on leverage by hedge funds in basis trading has raised alarms for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, especially following market instability linked to these trades in March 2020 [2] - The TIC data serves as a primary source for understanding cross-border capital flows, and the underestimation of Cayman hedge fund holdings poses a significant obstacle for researchers and policymakers analyzing these flows [2]

Core Insights - Defiance has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on "basis trading" strategies, one linked to Bitcoin and the other to Ethereum [1] Group 1: ETF Details - The proposed ETFs will allow investors to engage in a strategy that capitalizes on the price differences between the spot market and futures contracts, aiming for stable returns while minimizing exposure to significant price volatility [1] - The trading codes for the ETFs are set to be "NBIT" for the Bitcoin-related fund and "DETH" for the Ethereum-related fund [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Bitcoin ETF will purchase shares of Bitcoin spot funds, such as BlackRock's IBIT, and short Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1] - Expected returns from the Bitcoin ETF will derive from the price differences between the two markets, influenced by factors such as volatility and demand dynamics [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the oil processing industry in Jiangsu, focusing on hedging strategies and risk warning models for clients, providing a reference for other bulk commodity industries [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil processing industry includes three main categories: palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, all of which have similar and mature industrial chain models [1] - The global oilseed and oil industry primarily adopts a mature pricing model based on basis trading, using the "basis + corresponding month futures price" method for sales contract pricing [1] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Procurement hedging includes "fixed price" and "point pricing" methods, with different procurement methods corresponding to different hedging strategies [2] - Sales hedging in domestic oil processing enterprises mainly adopts point pricing, allowing downstream customers to engage in point pricing procurement at any time under long-term purchase agreements [3] - Inventory basis hedging involves the difference between spot prices and futures prices, where companies cannot fully lock in price fluctuation risks due to various influencing factors [4] Group 3: Profit Sources - The industry has two main sources of profit: 1. Stable risk-free profit through point price contracts and sell hedging, locking in profits in advance [5] 2. Uncertain basis gains or losses, where favorable basis movements can yield profits, while adverse movements may increase inventory costs [5] Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The company should focus on key industries and gradually extend multi-industry hedging strategies, with a current coverage of 40 trading categories in traditional and strategic industries [6] - Collaboration between parent and subsidiary companies is essential to enhance risk control levels, utilizing AI technology to develop various commodity warning systems and improve the professional skills of product and client managers [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The domestic soybean meal futures market has rebounded slightly due to cost - side support, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal market has shown average performance, with limited price decline space. The price of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to have limited up - and - down space in the near term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Market**: On September 3, 2025, the US soybean futures rebounded slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures continued to rebound. Rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend after earlier weakness [4]. - **Price Differences**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 5 to 245, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 9 to 115. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 16 to 380 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is clearly bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5]. - **South American Soybeans**: The old - crop supply in South America is relatively loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal is obvious, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient supply. As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.18%. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis The negotiation between China and the US in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, the short - term soybean price is not likely to drop significantly due to China's high demand for US soybeans [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis The domestic soybean meal futures have rebounded slightly under cost - side support, but the rebound space is limited. The market lacks clear directional guidance and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal price is not likely to drop deeply, and the monthly spreads have support at the bottom [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. - **Options**: Buy call options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [5] - **Protein Meal**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [13] - **Cotton**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and bearish when new cotton is listed [13] - **Sugar**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and fluctuate within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: Bullish, recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product, considering both domestic and international factors [5][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to technical pressure, US soybeans fell on Monday, and domestic oils continued to fluctuate. Macro factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices, as well as industry factors like high soybean good - rate, uncertain export demand, and different supply - demand situations of different oils, affect the market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybean good - rate is high, Brazilian exports are peaking, and CFTC net short positions are decreasing. Domestically, spot is stronger than the futures. It is expected that the outer market will rise more than the inner market, and the basis may bottom out. Suggestions include selling hedges for oil mills and buying basis contracts for downstream enterprises [7] - **Corn/Starch**: The price trend is weak. Supply is gradually tightening, but the market expects a low probability of a supply gap. Demand is weak due to low profits in related industries. New - season corn production is normal, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and may attract long - positions in the long term [7][8] - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long term, but there are policies to guide capacity reduction. Demand may increase with the cooling weather, and there was a 10,000 - ton reserve purchase. It is expected to fluctuate, with the spot and near - term contracts remaining weak and the far - term contracts supported by capacity - reduction expectations [9] - **Natural Rubber**: The price may be affected by weather speculation. It is in the seasonal rising period, and there are various positive factors. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13] - **Cotton**: Supply is tight, and the impact of import quotas is limited. Demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by ginners is rising. It is expected to fluctuate strongly until October and may decline when new cotton is listed [13][14] - **Sugar**: International production in Brazil is increasing, and exports are at a peak. Domestic imports are rising. Supply is increasing, but the short - term downside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: The market has both positive and negative factors. The recovery of hardwood pulp trading and cost support are positive, while over - supply of paper and delivery pressure are negative. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, with rising valuation and reduced supply pressure. However, there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips within the range of 790 - 840 [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Data monitoring is carried out for various products such as oils and fats, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [22][53][73] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include categories such as strongly bullish, bullish with fluctuations, neutral with fluctuations, bearish with fluctuations, and strongly bearish, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The agricultural products index also declined by 0.49% on that day, with different historical and recent period fluctuations [172][174]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall pressure in the soybean complex market persists, and the price center of the soybean complex is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal market has many disturbing factors and an unclear future direction, but there is support at the bottom. The rapeseed meal market is likely to oscillate, with the inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal potentially strengthening, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expected to oscillate at a low level. [5][9] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract on dips, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options. [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded slightly. The crop inspection results were mixed, and the rebound of US soybean oil also supported the market. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures declined. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal continued to decline, while that of rapeseed meal oscillated. [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Market - The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a significant reduction in planted area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited. [5] - The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose, with an expected increase in production and ending stocks or exports. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations. [5] - The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase in soybean crushing in major producing areas and only a slight increase in imports by major importing countries. [5] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, the oil - mill operating rate is decreasing, and the supply pressure still exists. [7] 3.3 Macroeconomics - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is worried about supply uncertainty. Although the overall international trade uncertainty remains high, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is mainly due to the improvement of crushing margins. There is support at the bottom due to unclear future supply. The rapeseed meal market volatility has decreased, and the market focuses on domestic supply - demand. The demand is weak, but there will be bullish factors in the medium - term. [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going long on the 05 contract on dips. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread. - Options: Buy call options. [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent listing of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange presents new opportunities for risk management in the industry, coinciding with a restructuring of the supply-demand landscape in the pure benzene industry chain [1][2]. Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - The "anti-involution" theme has led to rising expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity, contributing to an increase in pure benzene prices. As of August 22, the main contract for pure benzene closed at 6208 yuan/ton, a 4.67% increase from its listing day [2]. - Pure benzene is a crucial product in petroleum refining, with its main downstream products accounting for 95% of total consumption. These include styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [2]. - Despite the price increase, the overall industry faces a supply-demand imbalance due to insufficient terminal orders, indicating that the "anti-involution" policy has yet to yield concrete measures [2]. Capacity Expansion and Market Outlook - From 2023 to 2025, the chemical industry is expected to see concentrated capacity releases, with pure benzene capacity driven by integrated refining projects. However, downstream capacity expansion, particularly in styrene and caprolactam, is more pronounced [3]. - The pace of capacity expansion for pure benzene and its downstream products is anticipated to slow down, but downstream installations will continue to be commissioned faster than upstream ones, potentially exacerbating supply shortages [3]. Participation in Derivatives Market - Following the listing of pure benzene futures, several companies have actively engaged in derivative tools for risk management. For instance, Jingbo Petrochemical established virtual inventory positions at low prices and shorted styrene futures at high prices to lock in processing profits [3]. - Zhongzhe Material Group, a major importer of pure benzene, has utilized futures for basis trading and price management, enhancing China's pricing power in the global market [4]. Industry Sentiment and Future Prospects - Industry participants express optimism regarding the future development of pure benzene futures and options, citing the high consistency of market participants between pure benzene and styrene [6]. - Companies are increasingly looking to pure benzene futures to lock in raw material prices and future production profits, indicating a growing reliance on these financial instruments for risk management [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The basis is - 1075 with a spot price of 14,600, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory has increased recently, while Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [14][17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - The basis weakened on August 20 [35]. Fundamentals Data - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors are increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Basis - The basis on August 20 was - 1075 and it weakened on that day [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined on August 20 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently, and Qingdao area inventory has had small changes [14][17]. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors: increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].