Workflow
A股中证全指
icon
Search documents
红利指数上涨的底层逻辑是什么,还能持续吗?|第386期精品课程
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-04 08:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the dividend index in recent years, its driving factors, and the potential for continued growth in the future [1][5][47]. Performance Overview - The dividend index has shown strong performance in recent years, with some dividend funds increasing in value by 50%-80% [8][47]. - From 2018 to 2021, the growth style bull market saw the growth style index rise over 150%, while the dividend index lagged behind [6]. - However, from 2022 to 2024, the dividend index has performed well, showing overall growth [7]. Sources of Returns - The four main sources of returns for dividend index funds are: 1. **Undervalued Buy-in and Valuation Improvement**: The dividend index has seen a significant increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from around 7-8 times in 2018 to approximately 9-10 times by May 2025 [18][19][22]. 2. **Profit Growth**: The underlying companies of the dividend index have shown stable profit growth, particularly from 2022 to 2024, which supports the index's performance [27]. 3. **Dividend Yield**: The current dividend yield has increased significantly compared to 5-10 years ago, with many stocks now yielding 5%-6% [30][34]. 4. **Rule Optimization**: The optimization of index rules has improved returns, with newer indices incorporating additional criteria for stock selection [39][44]. Historical Performance Metrics - The annualized return of the dividend index since the end of 2004 is 8.73%, which increases to 12.52% when accounting for dividends [13][14]. - The long-term growth rate of the dividend index is estimated at 8%-9%, with an additional annual dividend yield of 3%-4% [14]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have encouraged companies to increase dividend payouts, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [33]. - The proportion of profits distributed as dividends has increased from 30%-40% to 40%-50% for some companies [34]. Conclusion - The combination of undervalued buy-in, profit growth, increased dividend yields, and optimized rules are expected to continue driving the long-term growth of the dividend index [47].
每日钉一下(GDP增长,和股价上涨,是啥关系?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-04-25 13:47
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) ◆◆◆ 大家对美债的关注度日渐提高。 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程,全面讲解美元债券基金投资。 比如: 长按识别下方二维码,添加@课程小助手,回复「 美元债券 」即可领取~ · 想投资美元债券类资产,有哪些方式? · 美元债基金,当前投资价值如何? · 投资美元债基金,会有哪些风险? 2025年1季度GDP同比增长5.4%。 相对2024年四季度,环比增长1.2%。 GDP增长和市场有啥关系呢? (1) 股价是长期跟随上市公司的盈利增 长走的。 指数点数=估值*盈利。 估值在一定范围内波动。 如果上市公司盈利增长,也会推动指数长 期上涨。 以A股中证全指为例。 2012-2014年5星级时,中证全指在2700- 2800点上下。 2018年底5星级,中证全指在3400-3500 点上下。 到了最近一年多5星级,中证全指在4800 点上下。 同样是5星级,熊市底部的点数,每隔几 年也会提高。 这主要就是上市公司盈利增长带来的。 (2) 盈利增长,跟 GDP增长速度,不完 全一致,但有相关性。 ▼点击阅读原 文,免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...