炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程研究组 量化投资组合管理研究系列之（九） 热潮下的冷思考：估值、拥挤度与资金博弈的量化择时 投资要点 ◆ 研究目标：高关注度成长赛道资金集聚效应显著，拥挤度与估值分化引发短 期波动。本研究从估值合理性、交易拥挤度、资金博弈三大核心维度构建多维度 量化择时体系，挖掘协同择时信号，为高成长赛道择时提供客观量化参考。 ◆ 核心逻辑：围绕交易、估值、资金、股权结构、量价五大维度选取 18 个基础 基于 GARCH-EVT-VaR 模型的动态风 指标，经滚动统计、偏离度构建、分位值转换、Z-score 标准化等特征工程加工， 通过 IC 有效性检验（P<0.05、IC 绝对值> 0.08）与 Gram-Schmidt 正交化去共线 性，最终提纯出 78 个具备显著预测能力的核心有效指标。 ◆ 回测结果：线性合成因子构建的周度调仓择时策略表现优异：年化收益率 29.50%，相对基准年化超额达 13.01%，贝塔 1.27、阿尔法 0.09；策略胜率提升至 中证创新药指数增强的构建 2025.09.05 54.8%，盈亏比从基准 1.2 ...

股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/27 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.005 | 4.273 | 3.248 | 2.690 | 3.299 | 3.097 | 0.197 | 3.297 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.149 | 5.915 | 1.819 | - | 4.701 | 4.353 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.431 | 3.540 | 2.037 | 1.233 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The core message highlights the ongoing discussions in the market regarding AI investments, with a significant new funding round expected to raise over $100 billion, pushing the overall valuation of leading AI companies to exceed $850 billion, which is higher than previous expectations [1] - Major participants in this funding round include industry giants like Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia, indicating strong institutional interest in the AI sector [1] - The article questions whether investors are truly investing in the future or are being constrained by past valuation metrics, suggesting a need for a shift in perspective [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the misconception that low valuation equates to safety in investments, illustrated by an example of an investor who focused on low P/E ratios but faced losses as the stock continued to decline [2] - It emphasizes that relying solely on valuation metrics can lead to poor investment decisions, as these metrics reflect past performance rather than future potential [2][6] - The importance of institutional participation in determining stock prices is highlighted, indicating that market dynamics are influenced more by large institutional investors than by individual perceptions of value [6][7] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of "institutional inventory" data as a tool to assess the active participation of institutional investors in the market, which can provide insights into stock performance beyond traditional valuation metrics [7][10] - It explains that a stock's price movement is often driven by the level of institutional engagement, rather than static valuation figures, challenging the notion that high valuations inherently carry risk [10][11] - The contrast between a low valuation stock that continues to decline and a high valuation stock that rises is attributed to differing levels of institutional interest, underscoring the need to focus on current market dynamics rather than historical data [11][18] Group 4 - The article concludes that understanding market behavior requires a shift from subjective feelings to objective data analysis, particularly through the use of quantitative data tools [19] - It stresses that the true value of investments lies in their ability to attract institutional participation, rather than merely being labeled as "cheap" based on valuation metrics [18][19] - The narrative encourages a more rational approach to investing, advocating for data-driven decision-making to navigate the complexities of the market effectively [19]

经济观察网北化股份（002246）于2026年1月28日披露2025年度业绩预告，预计归母净利润为2.2亿元至 2.9亿元，同比扭亏为盈，增幅达877.22%-1124.52%。业绩增长主要因纤维素衍生物和防化环保产业收 入提升及毛利率改善。以预告均值计算，当前市盈率(TTM)约44.91-59.2倍。2025年1-9月公司营收18.35 亿元(+41.09%)，净利润1.88亿元(+504.80%)，显示基本面显著改善。 财报分析 公司股价于1月28日创历史新高23.82元，受业绩预告提振。近期无新增重大公告，但业绩扭亏预期持续 影响市场情绪。所属基础化工板块近7日跌1.00%，个股表现相对抗跌。 机构观点 机构对北化股份评级偏中性，暂无近期调研。3家机构预测2025年净利润2.52亿元(+990.27%)，2026年 净利润3.63亿元(+43.93%)，反映业绩增长预期。估值方面，证券之星指出公司行业内竞争力一般，当 前股价处于合理区间。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Zijin Mining (2899) Company Overview - The discussion primarily focused on Zijin Mining (2899), which recently raised its production forecast, leading to an increase in its stock price [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Forecast and Stock Performance**: The company raised its production expectations, resulting in a positive market response with an increase in stock price [1][2]. - **Capital Return Discussion**: There was an exploration of the potential for the company to enhance capital returns. However, most investors expressed satisfaction with the current growth trajectory and were not urgently demanding a higher dividend payout, which currently stands at 32% [1][2]. - **Investor Sentiment on Dividends**: Some long-term investors indicated that an increase in the dividend payout could make the stock more appealing to a broader range of funds and asset management standards [1][2]. - **Valuation Insights**: Following the production forecast adjustment, many market participants noted that the stock price increase has led to a valuation that is now considered reasonable [2]. - **Revenue and Profit Estimates**: Based on the company's production guidance of 135 tons of gold, 1.55 million tons of copper, 650 tons of silver, and 30,000 tons of lithium (in lithium carbonate equivalent), and current spot prices (gold at $5,000/oz, copper at $13,000/ton, silver at $70/oz, lithium at $15,000/ton), the estimated revenue is approximately $48 billion. The estimated EBITDA, assuming profit margins of 50% for gold, copper, and silver, and 35% for lithium, is around $23.3 billion [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: Using an 8x EBITDA valuation (current valuation is 9.6x, discounted over two years), the estimated valuation of the company is about $186 billion. After deducting net debt, the market capitalization is approximately $173 billion, indicating about a 20% upside from current levels (around 10% when excluding Zijin Gold) [3]. - **Concerns on Profitability**: The main market concern revolves around the sustainability of profit margins in the copper business, while the profitability of the gold business is undisputed. The assumptions for lithium prices are considered conservative, as peers are currently achieving EBITDA margins exceeding 65% in lithium [3]. - **Cost Structure Advantage**: It is emphasized that the company's overall cost structure is better than its peers, with the all-in sustaining cost for gold at approximately $1,100/oz. The lithium business is transitioning to lithium extraction from salt lakes [3]. - **Future Market Dynamics**: There is a viewpoint that the copper market is expected to experience structural supply shortages over the next five years, suggesting that valuations for copper mining companies should be adjusted upwards, which remains an attractive investment logic [3].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.100, UK 4.452, France 3.363, Germany 2.777, Italy 3.383, Spain 3.150, Switzerland 0.268, Greece 3.375, Japan 2.232, Brazil 6.127, China 1.776, Australia 4.807, New Zealand 4.518 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.457, UK 3.595, Germany 2.055, Japan 1.303, Italy 2.191, China (1Y yield) 1.304, Australia 4.281 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.213, South Africa zar 15.961, Korean won 1439.100, Thai baht 30.932, Malaysian ringgit 3.903. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 6.902, 6.898, 6.946, and 6.778 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6832.760, Dow Jones Industrial Index 49451.980, NASDAQ 22597.150, Mexican stock index 70888.040, UK stock index 10402.440, France CAC 8340.560, Germany DAX 24852.690, Spanish stock index 17896.900, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 57639.840, Hang Seng Index 27032.540, Shanghai Composite Index 4134.018, Taiwan stock index (not provided), South Korean stock index 5522.270, Indian stock index 8265.352, Thai stock index 1441.530, Malaysian stock index 1750.850, Australian stock index 9281.789, emerging - economy stock index 1570.440 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 268.564, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 413.620 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - shares, the closing price is 4134.02 with a 0.05% increase; for CSI 300, the closing price is 4719.58 with a 0.12% increase; for SSE 50, the closing price is 3079.73 with a 0.28% decrease; for ChiNext, the closing price is 3328.06 with a 1.32% increase; for CSI 500, the closing price is 8423.57 with a 1.17% increase [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.20, 11.70, 38.08, 27.29, and 19.28 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.03, - 0.06, 0.38, - 0.43, and 0.00 [4] - The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.44 and 2.41 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.13 and 0.01 [4] - The latest capital flows of A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 106.78, - 237.55, (not provided), 239.92, and - 109.58 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are 7.38, - 101.94, (not provided), 80.09, and - 1.88 respectively [4] Group 3: Transaction Amount and Other Data - The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are 21417.38, 4904.74, 1304.13, 4190.81, and 6134.82 respectively, with环比 changes of 1574.86, 570.45, 163.27, 148.57, and 531.84 [5] - The basis values of IF, IH, and IC are - 2.78, 3.27, and 25.23 respectively, with spreads of - 0.06%, 0.11%, and 0.30% [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in Treasury bond futures are 108.59, 106.07, 108.60, and 106.15 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.03% [5] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.4329%, 1.6029%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, 0.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.318 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.20%, exceeding market expectations; total annual revenue reached $5.421 billion, up 5.73% [1] - Q4 net profit was $63 million, a significant increase of 3250% year-over-year; however, annual net profit declined by 34.03% to $221 million [1] - Operating cash flow for the year was $440 million, with free cash flow at $322 million [1] Financial Condition - The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 135.7% five years ago to 32.09%, significantly lower than the industry average [2] - Current ratio improved to 2.30, indicating enhanced short-term solvency [2] Operational Performance - The aerial work platform segment reported Q4 sales of $466 million, a 6.9% year-over-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 2.1%; however, annual sales declined by 14.5% [3] - The material handling segment's annual sales were $1.9 billion, down 14.6% year-over-year [3] - The environmental solutions segment provided stable revenue contributions [3] Company Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.38, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.67, both lower than the industry weighted average, indicating relative valuation advantages [4] Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup raised the target price from $52 to $62, maintaining a "hold" rating, acknowledging the company's cost control and cash flow improvements [5] Industry and Risk Analysis - The US manufacturing PMI has rebounded, indicating improved industry conditions; however, the company still faces challenges from supply chain fluctuations and international competition [6] - Ongoing attention is needed on the sustainability of demand recovery [6]

研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/12 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | 河 | | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.173 | 4.476 | 3.378 | 2.791 | 3.396 | 3.161 | 0.283 | 3.391 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.232 | 6.145 | 1.797 | - | 4.756 | 4.485 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].