上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 26 日 迎驾贡酒 (603198) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.22 | | 资产负债率% | 22.09 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 800/800 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 迎驾贡酒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-26 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/26 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.97 美元，涨幅 1.52%，报 64.74 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.95 美元，涨幅 1.40%，报 68.74 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.40 元，跌幅 0.29%， 报 485.6 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 1.51 百万桶至 88.63 百万桶，环比去库 1.68%；柴油商业库存 累库 0.59 百万桶至 105.18 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；总成品油商业库存去库 0.92 百万桶至 193.81 百万桶，环比去库 0.47%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，但当前价格已不宜追多， 基 ...

钼精矿创近 29 个月新高，钨精矿价格续创 2011 年以来新高水平 2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 要点 流动性：7 月 M1 和 M2 增速差收窄至-3.2 个百分点，创近 49 个月新高。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 7 月值为 46.09，环比上月 -6.16%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 7 月为-3.2 个百分点，环比+0.5 个百分点。 基建和地产链条：8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-0.91%、水泥价格指数+1.70%、橡胶+0.00%、焦炭 +3.52%、焦煤+0.47%、铁矿-0.65%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥 、 沥 青 、 全 钢 胎 开 工 率 环 比 分 别 +0.03pct 、 -18.25pct 、 +1.3pct 、 +1.67pct；（3）8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 5.444 billion yuan (down 15.31% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 563 million yuan (down 9.89% year-on-year). However, the CDMO business showed rapid growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.177 billion, 1.374 billion, and 1.652 billion yuan respectively, indicating a high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.444 billion yuan (down 15.31% year-on-year) and a net profit of 563 million yuan (down 9.89% year-on-year). The gross margin was 25.73% (up 1.03 percentage points) and the net margin was 10.34% (up 0.62 percentage points) [4] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.714 billion yuan (down 15.98% year-on-year) with a net profit of 315 million yuan (down 17.48% year-on-year) [4] - The CDMO business generated revenue of 1.236 billion yuan (up 20.32% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 44.04% (up 3.95 percentage points) [5] - The company has 1,180 ongoing projects, a 35% increase year-on-year, with 377 projects in the commercialization stage (up 19% year-on-year) and 803 projects in the research phase (up 44% year-on-year) [5] R&D and Cost Structure - The company employed 1,155 R&D personnel in the first half of 2025, with over 500 in the CDMO segment. The sales expense ratio increased to 4.77%, while the R&D expense ratio was 5.95% [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 16.1, 13.8, and 11.5 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent reduction in its stake in Apple has sparked significant market attention, interpreted as a rational move for risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish signal [2][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The sale of Apple shares contradicts Warren Buffett's investment philosophy of "buy and hold," suggesting that the current risk-reward ratio for Apple is no longer optimal [2][3] - Selling part of a position indicates that the investor believes the stock's attractiveness has diminished compared to other potential investments [3] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - Apple represents a substantial portion of Berkshire's portfolio, accounting for $66.639 billion, or 25.8% of total holdings [5] - Despite the reduction, Apple's weight in the overall portfolio is not excessively high when considering Berkshire's total assets, which include significant non-public holdings [9][7] Group 3: Market Signals - The small scale of the reduction sends a clear signal that there are concerns regarding Apple, particularly in light of policy uncertainties and valuation issues [10][11] - Policy uncertainties include potential increases in capital gains tax, which could impact future investment decisions [12][14] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's valuation has increased significantly, with its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rising to 35, making it less attractive compared to the past when it was around 10-15 [16] - The current high valuation requires sustained high growth, which may be challenging given recent fluctuations in market share [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Group 1 - The Nikkei average index reached a new high of 43,714 points on August 18, up 336 points (0.77%) from the previous weekend, marking two consecutive days of record highs [2] - The market's price-to-book ratio (PBR) is approaching a high of 1.6 times for 2024, indicating a sustained bullish sentiment [2] - Investors are shifting towards relatively undervalued stocks due to the lack of clear buying opportunities [2] Group 2 - Despite expectations of market pressure after the previous week's highs, the market showed unexpected strength, with the Nikkei index briefly reaching 43,835 points [4] - The stocks driving the recent increase differ from previous trends, with retail stocks like J. FRONT RETAILING and Mitsukoshi Isetan, as well as automotive stocks like Suzuki, receiving strong buying support [4] - Bank stocks, which had previously surged due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, have seen significant pullbacks [4] Group 3 - The U.S. economy has not shown significant slowdown, and U.S. stock indices continue to reach new highs, which may influence Japanese market sentiment [5] - The average PBR of Nikkei index constituents is currently at 1.58 times, exceeding the peaks of 1.57 times observed in March and July 2024 [5] - There is a growing belief in the market that a PBR exceeding 1.6 times can be justified, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] Group 4 - Following the conclusion of Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations in late July, the upward trend in the Japanese stock market has strengthened [7] - Investors who previously lacked sufficient positions are now seeking relatively undervalued stocks, particularly during the traditionally low trading period of the Obon festival [7]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing volatility around the 3700-point level, which is considered a "no man's land" where profit-taking can lead to significant declines [1][4] - Historical comparisons show that previous bull markets have seen substantial pullbacks after reaching similar index levels, indicating potential for further fluctuations [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly from previous peaks, with current expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the tightening seen in 2021 [7][9] Group 2 - Domestic savings have increased significantly, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization rising from 1.18 in January 2021 to 1.73 in July 2025, suggesting that there is still room for market growth [9] - Sector performance varies, with some industries like telecommunications and transportation showing strong gains, while others like food and beverage have underperformed compared to previous bull markets [12][13][15] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.78, which is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting caution for investors [16][19] - The performance of major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext shows that while some sectors have seen growth, overall earnings have not kept pace with rising valuations, raising concerns about sustainability [22][24] Group 4 - Recent trading activity indicates a strong preference for technology and renewable energy sectors, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and solar energy, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods lag behind [43][50] - The market is characterized by a high degree of differentiation, making stock selection more challenging than in previous bull markets, with a recommendation for investors to consider broad-based indices for exposure [34][39]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect companies with high dividend levels and low volatility have shown overall strong performance, with the financial, industrial, and energy sectors accounting for nearly 70% of the index [4] - The dividend value ETF tracks the CSI Dividend Value Index, which consists of 50 stocks with high dividend yields and value characteristics, reflecting the overall performance of such stocks, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors making up about 80% [5] - As of the midday close, the CSI Dividend Value Index has a rolling P/E ratio of 7.7 times, indicating a stable valuation for companies within this index [5] Group 2 - The CSI Dividend Index was launched on May 26, 2008, and was adjusted from a market capitalization-weighted index to a more refined methodology on December 16, 2013 [5] - The index's dividend yield is calculated as the sum of the last 12 months' cash dividends (pre-tax) divided by the market value of the stocks, providing a clear measure of income generation [5] - The fund management fee is set at 0.15% per year, with a custody fee of 0.05% per year, indicating a low-cost investment option for investors [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]