该行预计，领展减省人力成本应有助于公司稳定其每基金单位分派。到2027财年中期，公司应可调整其 业务组合，以更好地应对电商竞争。该行认为，公司当前的估值仍具吸引力，重申"买入"评级。 美银证券发表研报指，领展房产基金9月底止2026财年中期业绩逊于预期，将其2026至28财年的每基金 单位分派(DPU)预测下调2%至3%，目标价相应由45港元降至43港元。该行指，领展最大的负面因素是 内地零售租金收入急剧下降，但香港续租租金降6%则属预期之内，第二财季的租户销售按年跌幅扩大 则令市场失望。 ...

彭博：字节跳动的估值在股票拍卖中估飙升至4800亿美元风投公司今日资本从中银集团（早期机构投资者）中获得股份，最初这批股份的定价约为2亿美元，对应字节跳动的估值约为3600亿美元。但由于多达7家竞标方参与竞拍，价格迅速攀升。今日资本最终以近3亿美元的价格，按照接近5000亿美元的公司估值买下了这部分股份。 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/19 | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.114 | 4.553 | 3.457 | 2.706 | 3.456 | 3.208 | 0.138 | 3.332 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.739 | 6.245 | 1.805 | - | 4.441 | 4.150 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.574 | 3.795 | 2.017 | 0.918 | 2.214 | 1 ...

核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 ETF 周报 上周科技 ETF 跌幅中位数超 4%，酒 ETF 逆势上涨 上周（2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-1.09%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.02%， 收益最高。按板块划分，消费 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.10%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，酒 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.67%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 114.02 亿元，总体规模减少 378.87 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 29.79 亿元；按板块来看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 97.70 亿元；按热点主题来看，AIETF 净申购最多，为 49.38 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的 估值分位数相对较低。 ETF 融资 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Research Team: Macroeconomic Team of the Research Center - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.120%, 4.437%, 3.415% respectively. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was 0.050, and the one - year change was - 0.153 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the UK, Germany, Japan, etc. were 3.760%, 2.026%, 0.927% respectively. There were also different changes in different time periods. For instance, the latest change in the UK was 0.037, and the one - year change was - 0.746 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On November 13, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.299, 17.043 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.13%, and the one - year change was - 7.78% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6737.490, 47457.220, 22870.360 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the S&P 500 was - 1.66%, and the one - year change was 16.51% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - There were different performance changes in different time periods for US investment - grade credit bonds, euro - zone investment - grade credit bonds, etc. For example, the latest change of US investment - grade credit bonds was - 0.37%, and the one - year change was 5.99% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 4029.50, 4702.07 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 14.41, 12.13 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.55, with a环比 change of 0.01; the risk premium of German DAX was 2.66, with a环比 change of 0.27 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were 496.42, 272.41 respectively, and there were corresponding 5 - day average values [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 20419.62, 5100.61 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 25.07, - 4.87, - 86.29 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.410, 105.885 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3887%, 1.5005%, 1.5800% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]

（来源：望京博格投基） 转自：望京博格投基 中午吃饭的时候，群里面大户惊叹的说： 结果今天化工大涨3.7%，关键价格比之前止盈的价格还要高7%，大户觉得自己卖飞了。 博格的心情比较平静的，因为后来买的绿电收益也有6%左右，化工+绿电轮动浮盈超过20%的，这个收 益还是可以接受的。 "化工涨得比创新药还多？" 看到这个，博格大概率猜到了。 博格之前私域发车抄底化工，这个大户跟车了； 化工盈利了15%之后，博格清仓止盈了，这个大户也跟车了。 博格后来又抄底绿电了，这个大户没有跟车。 "港股创新药持仓36.6万，盈利93.73% PS：算上今天的收益应该超100%了 博格一直看好创新药，在4月7日的时候，重仓买入这个ETF，之后一路上涨，累计收益率一度达到 110%。 在7月底的时候，博格还减仓了5-6万的港股创新药，计划等着创新药之后再减仓一点。 结果国庆之后开始回调又亏了不少浮盈，索性继续持有吧，等后面创新药了再减仓一些。" 年底是创新药BD大单的密集期，期望港股创新药可以继续涨。 临近发稿的时候，港股创新药涨幅为4.76%，这个涨幅比化工涨幅高多了。 再看看创新药的估值，最新市盈率为31.83倍，处于最近十年 ...

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.1% due to the ongoing deep adjustment in the real estate market and a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.1% [1] - Current dividend yield stands at 5%, indicating a valuation bottom [1] - The dividend payout ratio is 24.3% [1] Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - China State Construction is one of the largest investment and construction groups globally and is included in major indices such as CSI 50, SSE 50, FTSE China A50, and MSCI China A50 Connect Index [1] - The controlling shareholder increased holdings by 620 million yuan, accounting for 0.27% of total share capital [1] - The company maintains a long-term stable dividend policy [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is given a target price of 7.42 yuan based on a 2025 PE of 6.5 times [1] - The current PE of 4.7 times is at the 45th percentile over the past decade, while the PB is 0.47 times, at the 1st percentile over the same period [1] - The company adheres to a market-oriented operational mechanism, gradually enhancing its ability to navigate market rules [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline today, remaining at a 4.1 star rating [1] - Major indices like the CSI 300 saw significant drops [2] - Small and mid-cap stocks also experienced minor declines [3] - Value styles, such as dividend stocks, showed little volatility [4] - Growth styles, particularly the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards, continued to decline, with a drop of 1.4% [5][6] Earnings and Valuation Insights - Growth style stocks showed good earnings growth in the first three quarters of the year [7] - The ChiNext achieved its largest quarterly gain in the last decade, leading to overvaluation by the end of September and early October [8] - Following this, valuations have started to retreat from their highs [9] Investment Strategies - The index enhancement investment strategy has returned to normal valuation, prompting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings [12] - The actively selected investment strategy is still in normal investment mode, but it is approaching normal valuation levels [12] - The monthly investment strategy, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [12] Pension Fund Insights - The pension index fund investment strategy has been ongoing, with a focus on combinations like the CSI 500 and CSI Dividend [28] - Both strategies have shown strong performance phases this year, with the CSI 500 up approximately 24% and the CSI Dividend up about 11% [32] - Current valuations for these funds have returned to normal, leading to a pause in new investments until undervalued opportunities arise [21][34] New Features and Tools - The introduction of an "automatic stop-loss" feature for actively selected and index enhancement strategies allows for automatic profit-taking when market conditions are favorable [41] - Investors can choose between manual and automatic investment tracking methods to align with their financial strategies [18][19] Investor Philosophy - The core philosophy of value investing emphasizes viewing stock purchases as acquiring ownership in companies, focusing on long-term profitability rather than short-term price fluctuations [43]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Bank reported a slight decline in revenue and a modest increase in net profit for Q3 2025, indicating mixed performance amid market fluctuations and changing interest rates [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Revenue for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [1]. - Net interest income increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 1.1%, driven by an expansion in the asset base [1][2]. - Fee income grew by 16.9%, although this was a slowdown from 20.4% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - Other non-interest income saw a significant decline of 12.8% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 0.8% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Profit Summary - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from 3.3% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The contribution from scale, interest margin, costs, provisions, and taxes improved marginally, while the contributions from fees and other non-interest income declined [1][2]. Asset and Liability Management - The bank's interest-earning assets increased by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, but there was a contraction in credit issuance during Q3 2025, with a reduction of 17.81 billion [2]. - Total loans as a percentage of interest-earning assets decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 49% [2]. - Deposits decreased by 19.515 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year reduction of 76.022 billion [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.29%, with a quarterly decrease of 1 basis point [2]. - The cumulative NPL generation rate for the first three quarters was 0.90%, down 10 basis points from the first half of 2025 [2]. - The provision coverage ratio increased to 195.79%, up 5 basis points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 70.304 billion, 72.539 billion, and 76.075 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%, 3.2%, and 4.9% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 26.423 billion, 27.575 billion, and 28.535 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 4.4%, and 3.5% [3]. - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.43X, 0.39X, and 0.36X for 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4]. Investment Recommendations - The bank's competitive advantages include a leading asset scale among listed city commercial banks, a strong regional presence, and a focus on technology-driven financial services [4]. - The low cost of liabilities positions the bank well to maintain its expansion capabilities in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The bank is recommended for an "overweight" rating based on its solid fundamentals and growth prospects [4].

Core Insights - The overseas markets experienced a decline during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, with most indices falling, except for Singapore and Hong Kong which saw gains. The Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index dropped by 4.07% and 3.74% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100 had the largest decline at -3.09% [2][9] - A-shares showed a broad increase with a moderate expansion in valuations. All major indices except for the CSI 500 saw mild increases, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The PE ratios for major indices were mostly in the 93%-99% percentile range for the past year [2][27][28] - The energy sector performed notably well, with significant gains in the digital energy (+8.79%), photovoltaic (+8.01%), and charging pile (+7.47%) sectors, while the smart car sector faced declines [2][27] Global Valuation Tracking - The report highlights that the global equity markets mostly declined, with valuation levels contracting alongside stock prices. The Korean Composite Index and the FTSE Singapore Straits Index showed significant divergence in PE changes, reflecting adjustments in earnings expectations [9][16] - The report provides a comparative analysis of various global indices, indicating that most are above the 75th percentile in terms of valuation metrics, while the Indian SENSEX30 is below the median level since 2010 [16][19] A-share Valuation Tracking - A-shares showed a broad increase with a moderate expansion in valuations. The report notes that the CSI 500 was the only index to see a slight decline of -0.04%, while other indices experienced mild increases [27][31] - The valuation metrics for A-shares, including PE, PB, PS, and PCF, are mostly positioned in the 93%-99% percentile range for the past year, indicating a favorable valuation environment for large-cap value stocks [28][34] Industry and Sector Valuation Tracking - The report indicates that the upstream resource and support services sectors saw overall gains, while the downstream consumer sectors, particularly beauty care and pharmaceuticals, experienced notable declines [2][27] - The energy industry chain stood out with significant performance, particularly in the renewable energy and green productivity sectors, while biotechnology faced downturns [2][27] Valuation Comparisons - The report provides detailed comparisons of PE, PB, PS, and PCF ratios across various indices, indicating that most A-share indices are above the 75th percentile level, with the exception of the CSI 500 which is slightly below this threshold [31][39][41] - The valuation metrics suggest that growth stocks generally have higher PE ratios compared to value stocks, with small-cap stocks showing higher valuations than large-cap stocks [34][39]