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建信基金:投资全球权益市场,主要看哪些指标?
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-10 09:38
专题:北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 名人名言 如果你想寻找非比寻常的交易,不能只在本国股市寻找,要到处寻觅。 数据来源:Wind,截至 日期:2025.9.8。 ——全球传奇逆向投资大师约翰·邓普顿 为何要投资全球权益市场? 在全球化经济格局下,单一国家或区域的权益市场往往受限于本地经济周期、产业结构单一性及地缘政 策波动,难以实现长期稳健的收益增长。投资全球权益市场,正是突破这一局限的关键选择,通过覆盖 不同经济体,既能精准捕捉各区域的差异化增长机遇,避免因单一市场行业集中导致的收益短板;又能 借助不同地域股市的低相关性,对冲局部风险冲击。长期来看,全球权益市场涵盖了更多具备全球竞争 力的优质企业,能更全面地分享全球经济增长的红利,为财富的长期保值增值筑牢基础。 投资全球权益市场看什么?——估值 投资全球权益市场时,"估值"是判断资产性价比、平衡风险与收益的核心标尺,它的本质是衡量"市场 价格"与"资产内在价值"的匹配度,尤其在跨地域、跨行业的全球配置中,估值更是筛选优质标的、对 比不同市场吸引力的关键工具之一。 具体来看,估值包含市盈率和市净率,它们就如同两把不同的尺子,一把量时 ...
ETF投资真相:80%的人败给估值,三类低位品种成十月胜负手
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 23:07
2025年10月,A股市场出现一个罕见现象:中证全指市盈率站上历史80%的高位,但市净率却趴在40%的低位徘徊。 这种"一半火焰一半海水"的撕裂感,让 追涨杀跌的散户彻底懵了——买科技ETF的人赚得盆满钵满,而押注银行、煤炭的投资者却深陷估值洼地。 估值分化的背后,是资金极端抱团的结果。 2025年三季度,通信ETF、5G通信ETF暴涨超80%,人工智能和锂电池板块紧随其后,而银行ETF、红利ETF却 逆势下跌。 更值得玩味的是,尽管双创指数表现抢眼,相关ETF却呈现资金净流出状态,这波行情几乎由场内融资资金推动。 判断估值高低的标尺,关键看历史百分位。 估值百分位低于30%,意味着比过去70%的时间都便宜,属于"地板价"区间;高于70%则需警惕回调风险。 但估 值并非万能指标,有些行业市盈率低可能源于盈利恶化而非真正便宜。 比如沪深港低空经济指数PE为负值,说明企业普遍亏损,这类高景气但盈利滞后的 板块需结合成长性判断。 当前三大洼地板块显露出性价比优势。 上证50指数市盈率11.7倍,市净率百分位仅38%,股息率超2%,华夏上证50ETF(510050)成为稳健型投资者的压舱 石。 中证100指数更触及2 ...
指数百分位,使用的时候要注意这四点|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-10-06 13:42
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 这个逻辑也很容易理解:一轮牛熊市7-10 年,如果只看2-3年数据,容易盲人摸象。 解决方法: 找同风格的、其他历史比较长 的指数,作为参考。 过,对历史数据的参考,最好包括历史的 几轮牛熊市。 一般同风格品种,涨跌上会比较相似。历 史的高低估阶段会相对重合。 例如是小盘股,可以参考中证1000;成长 风格,可以参考成长指数。 来模拟以前牛熊市大致的涨跌幅度。 (2) 指数规则修改,带来估值变化。 此时看百分位意义也不大。 例如中证100,名称修改为中证A100。从 原来按照市值的大小挑选股票,变成类似 于A500的龙头策略。 估值就发生较大变化。 再比如 H股指数,早些年是40只股票,金 融行业占比高。后来改为50只股票,纳入 了不少互联网公司。 规则修改后,以前的历史估值也就失去了 参考价值。 解决方法: 按照新规则,去计算以前的估 值数据。 早期红利指数是市值加权,也就是哪个股 票市值大,在指数中占比高。 当时的红利指数,银行股占比能达到60% 以上。 现在红利指数,是股息率加权。哪个股息 率高,在指数中占比高。 (3) 指数估值加权算法不同,带来百分位 发生变化 ...
宁德时代低开逾4% 小摩称当前估值较为合理 基石投资者禁售期将于下月到期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 01:36
宁德时代(300750)(03750)低开逾4%,截至发稿,跌4.01%,报586港元,成交额5000.66万港元。 消息面上,摩根大通将宁德时代港股评级由"增持"下调至"中性",称当前估值较为合理;同时将目标价 上调13%至600港元。分析师在报告中写道,持有已发行港股近50%的基石投资者的禁售期将于11月19 日届满,或将带来一定抛压并形成技术性价格上方压力。新的目标价基于对2026年盈利预测给予30倍市 盈率。 ...
A股泡沫到底大不大?美联储一开口美股就慌,散户警惕两个信号!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 07:31
Group 1 - The core concern is the potential asset price bubble in the US, which has raised alarms among domestic investors regarding the A-share market's valuation and growth [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 15% from early 2025 to September 25, while the STAR Market and ChiNext Index have surged by 45% and 75% respectively since the initiation of the US-China tariff dispute on April 8 [2][5] - The valuation metrics indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index is at the 95.84th percentile of its ten-year valuation range, suggesting a significant valuation bubble, while the CSI 300 Index is at the 85th percentile, indicating it is also relatively expensive [5][6] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index, despite its substantial price increase, shows a relatively moderate valuation at the 52.4th percentile, indicating less bubble risk compared to traditional sectors represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [6][8] - The disparity in performance between the indices is attributed to the underlying asset quality, with traditional sectors experiencing weak earnings growth, while high-tech sectors are witnessing both earnings and valuation growth [8][12] - The ten-year valuation period is deemed more relevant for A-shares due to the market's internationalization since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects, which has altered the valuation landscape significantly [9][11]
帮主郑重财经解读:林园李蓓齐喊买科技,大佬愁到失眠,问题到底出在哪?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 03:02
大伙儿都知道,林园是"老登股"的代表,手里重仓的全是白酒、中药这些熟面孔,今年这行情,这些票日子过得有多难,不用多说。咱最犯嘀咕的其实是这 事儿:拿着投资人的钱做投资,哪能不看估值?这就跟咱平时过日子一样——去菜市场买排骨,新鲜肋排要是卖到五十块一斤,肯定得停脚琢磨:这价都快 赶上牛肉了,值不值?买股票看估值,本质上就是算这个"值不值"的账。 这个周末投资圈简直像开了场热闹局,林园和李蓓俩大佬一前一后喊"买了科技"——一个说"被动买的",轻描淡写;一个说靠中证500股指期货蹭上浪潮, 透着点灵活。结果转头林园就冒了句"愁到睡不着觉",这话一出来,各大投资群立马传疯了,连平时不爱说话的老股民都出来搭茬。 今天我是帮主郑重,做了20年财经记者,专盯中长线里的人和事,咱就掏心窝子聊聊这事儿。说真的,林园那"愁",明眼人一看就不是愁那600多万科技股 ——那点钱连他持仓的1%都不到,跟九牛一毛似的。真正让他睡不着的,是今年他的产品净值掉得实在显眼,网友一扒底,那点压力全写在"睡不着"里 了。 之前我碰到个老伙计,看基金重仓股时还会拿个小本本算——比如某只中药股,市盈率40倍,他就念叨:"去年这公司赚了2个亿,现在市值 ...
[9月25日]指数估值数据(牛市中遇到回调怎么办;红利指数估值表更新;指数日报更新)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-25 14:00
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing style rotation, with growth styles currently performing strongly while value styles are lagging behind. The recent rise in the ChiNext index indicates a shift in market dynamics, suggesting potential investment opportunities in growth sectors [4][10][11]. Market Performance - The market saw a rise during the day, reaching a peak of 4.1 stars, but closed at 4.2 stars, indicating a slight pullback [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks showed minor gains, while small-cap stocks experienced slight declines [3]. - The growth style overall is on the rise, with significant increases in the ChiNext index recently, which had been undervalued for a long time [4][7][8]. Valuation Insights - The ChiNext index is approaching a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 45 times, indicating it is nearing overvaluation [9]. - Value styles, such as free cash flow and Hong Kong-Shanghai dividend stocks, have seen increases, with the latter rising 7-8% this year, marking the fifth consecutive year of growth [12][13]. - The average turnover rate in A-shares is significantly high, suggesting that many retail investors hold stocks for less than a month, which may not be sufficient to weather market corrections [42][43]. Investment Behavior - Historical data shows that during bull markets, it is common to experience pullbacks, and the market often exhibits a pattern of sharp rises followed by corrections [18][24]. - Attempting to time the market by selling before a correction and buying back at lower prices is challenging and often leads to missed opportunities [27][28]. - Frequent trading and chasing market trends can significantly reduce investor returns, with studies indicating that high turnover rates correlate with lower average profits [52]. Long-term Investment Strategy - Long-term stock and fund investments are closely tied to valuation and earnings growth, with valuation primarily affecting short-term returns and earnings growth driving long-term performance [44][46]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on controlling costs and enhancing revenue, akin to running a business, to achieve better investment outcomes [49][50]. Dividend and Cash Flow Indices - The article includes a valuation table for various dividend and free cash flow indices, providing insights into their earnings yields, P/E ratios, and other financial metrics for reference [51][65].
盘中又有消息!但芯片一些风险要注意了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 20:45
Group 1 - The semiconductor ETFs experienced significant gains, with the chip leader ETF rising by 5% and the semiconductor equipment ETF soaring by 8% due to rumors about a domestically developed EUV lithography machine expected to enter trial production in Q3 2025 and achieve mass production in 2026 [1] - The current PE valuation of the chip index has reached 143 times, placing it in the 99th percentile, the highest level since the index's inception, even surpassing the peak in 2021 [2][4] - The PB valuation of the chip index stands at 7.46 times, which is in the 83.71 percentile, indicating that while it is not as high as the PE valuation, it is still at a historically elevated level [4] Group 2 - Despite the high valuations, many investors remain cautious due to past experiences with high-valuation sectors like liquor, healthcare, and new energy, where significant losses were incurred despite stable profit growth [6][9] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and CATL have seen their PE valuations drop significantly, with Moutai's PE decreasing from 70 times to 20 times, while CATL's dropped from 160 times to 29 times, highlighting the impact of valuation on stock performance [8][11] - The trend model strategy is proposed as a solution for navigating high-valuation environments, allowing investors to hold onto stocks as long as they maintain an upward trend, thus avoiding significant losses during market downturns [14][17] Group 3 - Alibaba announced a significant investment of 380 billion in AI infrastructure and a partnership with NVIDIA, leading to a 10% increase in its stock price, although it still needs to rise 40% to reach its previous high [19] - The ongoing investment in new energy by China contrasts with the U.S. approach, which may lead to China dominating the global new energy sector in the future [19]
复盘新能源对成长投资的启示
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-24 08:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]
大类资产早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:26
Report Overview - The report is a macro asset market analysis released by the research center's macro team on September 18, 2025, covering global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures [2][3] Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different trends. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.089 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.060, a one - week change of 0.042, a one - month change of - 0.203, and a one - year change of 0.388 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.540 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of 0.050, and a one - year change of - 0.210 [3] Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.305 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.14% and a one - month change of - 3.24% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.104 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.14%, a one - week change of - 0.24%, a one - month change of - 1.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.13% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6600.350 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.10%, a one - week change of 1.05%, a one - month change of 3.20%, and a one - year change of 20.64% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The emerging economies' stock index was 1347.850 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of 3.09%, a one - month change of 6.98%, and a one - year change of 26.74% [3] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as the US investment - grade credit bond index (3528.030 on September 17, 2025) and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index (407.110 on September 17, 2025), showed various trends in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The A - share index closed at 3876.34 with a 0.37% increase, the CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02 with a 0.61% increase, etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.16 with a 0.07环比 change, and the PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.47 with a - 0.03环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.45 with a - 0.06环比 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.52 with a 0.02环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest fund flow of A - shares was - 198.10, and the latest fund flow of the CSI 300 was 79.42 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23767.38, and the latest trading volume of the CSI 300 was 6084.54 [5] Basis and Spread - The basis of IF was 2.18 with a 0.05% spread, the basis of IH was 3.42 with a 0.12% spread, and the basis of IC was - 7.64 with a - 0.11% spread [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 closed at 108.155, 105.890, 107.855, and 105.760 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.18%, and 0.14% [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market were 1.5536%, 1.5493%, and 1.5540% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00 BP, 5.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6]