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A股低波动慢牛
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机构:A股迈向低波动慢牛
Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the transformation of Chinese companies into global players and the evolution of the A-share market from an emerging to a mature market, setting the stage for a low-volatility bull market [3][12]. Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery in China's economy, with a growth target of approximately 5.0% in 2025 and around 4.9% in 2026, indicating a "front low, back high" growth pattern [8]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit ratio around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [8]. - Monetary policy may continue to have room for rate cuts, with structural monetary tools remaining in play, supporting economic growth [8]. Market Dynamics - The positive momentum in the capital market is attributed to the increasing international influence of China, the rising position of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain, and the maturation of market systems [5]. - The A-share market is transitioning to a global perspective, with Chinese companies expected to enhance their pricing power in the global value chain during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][12]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 highlights three key areas: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [13]. 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands profit growth potential and market capitalization [13]. 3. The continued commercialization of AI applications, which will amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese companies in the tech sector [13]. Industry Focus - The conference identified three major themes for industry allocation: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [13]. 2. The international expansion of Chinese companies [13]. 3. The broadening application of AI technologies [13].