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帮主郑重:7月9日A股策略!五大维度解析变盘窗口的机会与风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 01:27
Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the market's positioning around the 3500-point level [1][3]. Policy Impact - Trump's announcement to delay the "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1 is beneficial for sectors with high export ratios, such as automotive parts and consumer electronics, providing a buffer for companies like Luxshare Precision [3]. - The joint release of the "High-Power Charging Facility Construction Notice" by four departments is expected to boost the power grid equipment sector, with significant orders anticipated due to record-high electricity loads [3]. - The restart of national subsidy policies with 138 billion yuan funding is likely to stimulate consumption in home appliances, automobiles, and new energy sectors, particularly benefiting energy-efficient appliances and new energy vehicles [3]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3497 points, close to the significant 3500-point resistance level, with healthy trading volume of 1.47 trillion yuan [4]. - If trading volume remains above 1.4 trillion yuan, a breakthrough above 3500 points is possible; otherwise, a pullback to the 3450-point support level may occur [4]. - The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a five-year low, indicating a high probability of a directional move within two weeks [4]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan, with growth stocks like CATL facing selling pressure, while main funds are quietly positioning in sectors like photovoltaics and power equipment [4]. - The issuance of 31 new funds on July 7 and a high number of private placements in June suggest a potential influx of capital into the market during the July-August period [4]. External Market Influence - The impact of external markets is diminishing, as evidenced by the A-share market's resilience despite declines in U.S. stocks due to Trump's tariffs on Japan and South Korea [5]. - The surge in copper prices by 10% is expected to positively affect the performance of related companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is likely to oscillate around the 3500-point mark, presenting a good opportunity for medium to long-term investors [6]. - Key focus areas for investment include: 1. Power grid equipment and new energy vehicles, benefiting from clear policy support and deep capital involvement [6]. 2. Photovoltaics and power equipment, with high certainty of mid-year performance increases [6]. 3. Consumer electronics and automotive parts, with valuation recovery opportunities due to tariff delays [6]. - A strategy of "selling on highs and buying on dips" is recommended to optimize portfolio structure [6].