中盛期货 股指、黄金周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 股指基本面数据 中盛期货 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 国内外宏观经济数据 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 2025年12月官方制造业PMI上升至50.1（前值49.2），时隔8个月重回扩张区间，工业 生产明显加快，需求边际改善。12月CPI同比上涨0.8%（前值0.7%），PPI同比下降 0.9%，降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点。 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 "反内卷"政策的效果逐渐显现，新能源、有色金属、煤炭等大宗商品价格反弹，PPI 同比降幅收窄，有助于上游原材料加工利润改善。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至26031.43亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展1387亿7天 期逆回购操作，实现净回笼16550亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 中盛期货 黄金基本面数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成 ...

记者丨 曹媛 编辑丨孙超逸 2026年开年两个交易日，保险股持续走强。今日保险行业指数（886055.WI）收涨3.29%，位 居行业涨幅榜前列，A股五大上市险企集体飘红。 值得注意的是， 多只保险股股价创历史新高。1月6日，中国平安A股，新华保险、中国太保A 股和H股股价均创历史新高。新华保险、中国太保已连续2个交易日创历史新高。 其中，新华保险（601336.SH）领涨，收80.80元/股，涨6.48%；中国太保（601601.SH）紧随 其后，收47.35元/股，涨5.08%；中国人保（601319.SH）、中国人寿（601628.SH）分别涨 3.92%、2.90%；中国平安（601318.SH）的后复权盘中最高价达到234.59元，创上市以来历 史新高。 Wind数据显示，今日A股五大上市险企总市值合计约为3.89万亿元，较上一个交易日增加约 1288亿元。 | | | 证券代码 上市险企 上市至今最高价 最高价日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601318.SH | 中国平安 | 234.59元 | 2026-01-06 | | 601336.SH | 新华保险 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月3日伦铝最新库存量报506750公吨，较上个交易日减少2500吨，跌幅 0.49%。 不过，库存整体仍处历史低位，且外盘强势，短期铝价或延续偏强走势，今现铝或大涨，但需警惕高价 位伴随的高波动，预计沪铝价格高点在23300 - 24600元/吨。 长江铝业网讯：1月5日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23310元/吨，涨850元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23250元/吨，涨880元。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 宏观层面，元旦期间美国突然对委内瑞拉发动军事行动并逮捕马杜罗夫妇，这是拉美地区自1989年美国 入侵巴拿马以来最直接且戏剧性的干预。该事件点燃市场避险情绪，推动现货黄金一度涨近3%至一周 高点，也带动工业金属市场的涨势氛围。此外，此次地缘事件再度引发市场对全球贸易畅通性和供应链 稳定性的潜在担忧，推升有色金属等战略资源品溢价。全球股市走高，国际油价上扬，而美元指数受此 拖累下行，使以美元计价的铝等金属商品对买家而言更具吸引力，并刺激资金纷纷涌入风险资产推动沪 铝补涨行情，投机情绪浓烈且低库存支撑，铝价强势上扬，价格重心创下四年新高。 新浪合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main Zheng cotton contract showing a slight increase of 0.52% after initially declining, driven by expectations of reduced planting area and concerns over future supply constraints [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in domestic planting area for the new year has heightened market concerns regarding future supply shortages, providing strong support for cotton prices [1] - Despite the expected abundant cotton yield this year, supply pressure remains, compounded by the traditional off-season for the textile industry, leading to weak new orders from weaving factories [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Domestic textile enterprises are facing significant pressure, as the rise in cotton prices has not been matched by an increase in downstream yarn prices, resulting in squeezed profits for yarn manufacturers [1] - The motivation for textile companies to replenish raw materials is weakening due to these profit pressures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, Zheng cotton is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by a combination of strong expectations and strong realities, which differs from previous purely expectation-driven trading [1] - The likelihood of turning positive expectations into negative outcomes is lower this time, and there are still favorable policy developments anticipated in the future [1]

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在持续反弹的推动下，沪指斩获七连阳，市场对跨年行情的预期随之逐步升温，但当前市场是否已开启 实质性跨年行情，仍需后续走势进一步验证与观望。从全天表现来看，指数在前期持续上涨基础上继续 走高，核心得益于政策利好与汇率改善的双重驱动。政策层面，央行重要会议明确释放"维护资本市场 稳定"的信号，并提出将通过多元货币工具为市场提供流动性支持，这种清晰的政策基调有效稳定了市 场预期，显著增强了投资者信心。汇率层面，近期人民币兑美元呈现持续升值态势，离岸人民币兑美元 成功升破7.0关键关口，大幅降低了外资流出压力，为指数上行注入了增量资金预期。政策与汇率形成 正向共振，叠加年底资金面相对宽松的市场环境，共同助推市场走出连续反弹行情。 从历史走势来看，七连阳在A股市场中较为罕见，往往预示着市场上行趋势具备一定延续性。回顾过往 市场表现，在指数上行趋势中，多连阳行情通常伴随成交量放大与赚钱效应扩散，而七连阳的出现，更 意味着市场资金共识较强，后续整体仍存在上行空间。但需要警惕的是，历史数据同时显示，七连阳之 后市场容易出现分化或短期回落走势：一方面，部分获利资金存在了结需求，可能引发抛压；另一方 面，市场对后续利好预期存在分 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/23 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 看多焦煤主力合约的五大理由 5.情绪修复驱动：前期空头资金持续流出后，政策利好推动盘面大幅反弹，市场情绪从悲观转向修复，技 术性反弹动能充足。操作上，中长期逢回调分批布局多单，短期严控仓位。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.估值已至低位：12月累计跌幅超20%，创下年内新低，当前价格低于蒙煤进口成本线，现货升水期货形 成安全垫，估值修复空间显著。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2.政策暖风护航：六部门发文推动煤炭清洁高效利用，《求是》强调整治"内卷式"竞争，政策引导行业 秩序改善，提振市场预期。 3.补库需求临近：钢厂焦煤库存低于往年12%，春节前冬储补库窗口将启，焦企、钢厂需补至14-15天安 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 ["嘉实中证港股通创新药ETF发起联接A"] 板块名称 ["创新药"] 政策利好、创新药投资、市场估值 看多看空 国内预计政策端大概率定调积极，美联储降息大方向不变，且当前股市估值适中、性价 比较高，同时看好创新药投资方向，所以看多A股。 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本月，国内重磅会议与海外美联储议息会议将召开，引发全球资本关注，市场观望情绪浓厚，成交量萎 缩。这种"等待"反映出大家对政策力度和美联储利率政策的担忧。不过，今年房地产走弱，国内复苏略 低于预期，预计政策端积极；美联储降息大方向不变。今日组合发车，高权组合比例25%，低权组合比 例30%。近期看好创新药投资方向，多个组合调仓新增嘉实中证港股通创新药ETF发起联接A。环球日 积月累发车，组合成立以来收益率佳 ...

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the short - term sentiment of taking profits rising in the stock market. The medium - term view is that the stock index is in a range - bound state, and in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged. After short - term shock consolidation, the outlook for the stock index in the long - term is not pessimistic [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is range - bound, the medium - term view is range - bound, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the willingness of funds to settle profits increases in the short term [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weak, the medium - term view is range - bound, and the reference view is range - bound. The main reason for the recent stock index correction is that the marginal driving force of domestic policy benefits weakens, and there is risk transmission from overseas stock markets. On November 24, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1983.6 billion yuan, an increase of 261 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short term, the stock index is mainly range - bound due to intensified market games, but in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged [5]