新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘冲突影响，镍不锈钢震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-03-02日沪镍主力合约2605开于141550元/吨，收于140890元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.09%，当日成交量为 554437（+55750）手，持仓量为219113（369）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体维持高位震荡格局。开盘阶段以日内最高价141,550元/吨开盘，盘中震荡回落， 午后快速回升，最终收涨，全天仍保持上涨态势。 宏观方面：中东地缘局势升级引发能源安全担忧，推高油价，间接提振大宗商品市场风险偏好。此外，硫磺作为 镍湿法冶炼关键原材料，也受到中东局势影响颇深，全球海运硫磺贸易中，有50%的货物(约2000万吨/年)源自中东 波斯湾地区，必须经霍尔木兹海峡运往全球市场。主要出口国包括沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特和伊朗。按照 行业平均水平，生产1镍吨MHP需消耗约11.7吨硫磺。根据SMM测算，硫磺在MHP成本中的占比在2026年1月已达 41%，间接对镍价走高起到了推动作用。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场延续偏强运行格局。印尼内贸镍矿供应紧张程度进一步加剧，升 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股市放量整理，股指震荡整理 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡整理。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，地缘风 险快速升温，中东战火导致霍尔木兹海峡通行受到实质性影响，油气、 航运、军工、黄金等股票大幅上涨，股市成交额突破 3 万亿，放量整理。 不过地缘风险的影响更多是短线扰动，最终股市仍将回归自身基本面。 政策利好预期以及资金净流入趋势构成股指的中长期主要逻辑。本周将 召开两会，宏观政策面托底需求以及扶持科技创新的政策决心较强，能 够较好地稳定宏观需求预期，并且推动产业转型升级，有利于提升上市 公司利润率水平。不过随着股指接近前期高点的位置，政策面实际落地 若无法超出市场预期，资金获利止盈的意愿将有所上升，进而制约股指 继续上行的空间。总的来说，短期内股指以区间震荡为主。 期权方面，由于股指中长期上行的逻辑较为牢靠，可以维持牛市价差 的思路。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-26 政策利好提振，钢价低位回升 钢材：政策利好提振，钢价低位回升 市场分析 昨日盘面整体走强，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3076元/吨，上涨1.62%；热卷主力合约收于3236元/吨，上涨1.28%。 现货方面，昨日国内钢材市场稳中个调，随着节后的企业逐渐开工，市场交易情绪有所回暖。 供需逻辑： 目前，钢材在供稳需弱局面下产业矛盾累积，钢价仍将承压，相对利好的是政策预期与成本支撑。板材得益于政 策利好与限产扰动提振，热卷价格低位回升，但其供应压力未退，基本面表现依然偏弱，上行驱动有待跟踪，关 注节后需求恢复情况。总体来说，政策方面，供需两端均有政策提振市场信心，市场对钢铁行业利润改善有所期 待，从而拉动黑色系上涨。但政策效果仍有待评估，且其中产业政策集中于对利润的改善，对原料需求反而形成 利空。需要关注节后终端消费情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 供应方面：本期全球发运总量环比上升23.5%，相比去年同期增加明显。需求方面：近期钢厂高炉开工率，日均铁 水产量环比节前均有小幅上升。不过目前钢厂补库完毕，投机性需求有所下滑。库存方面：港口库存环比减少， 钢厂库存大幅增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-26 政策利好提振，盘⾯低位反弹 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重⼤会议期间⾼炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘⾯低位反弹。但钢材库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存， 板块盘⾯上⽅空间有限。 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重大会议期间高炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘面低位反弹。但钢材库存压力仍存，基本面缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存， 板块盘面上方空间有限。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释 放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢春 节假期期间供需双弱，基本面驱动有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有小幅增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将 ...

走进狮城镇南街的"周宁有鲤"自营门店，货架上金线莲、黄精、土豆酥、高山茶点等特色产品琳琅满 目。"这土豆面好吃，有嚼劲，我寄给外地朋友，他们吃完还让我寄。"市民陈梅兰笑着选购年礼。 不同于传统年货礼盒的繁杂堆砌，"周宁有鲤"系列主打本地特色。今年，该公司进一步优化套餐设计， 一方面，所有套餐组合均享有比往年更直接的折扣力度；另一方面，创新推出"自选组合"模式，顾客可 在六大品类框架内自由搭配品种、调整规格，真正实现"按需定制"。实实在在的品质和优惠，让本地山 货加速走上市民游客的年货清单。 正月初三，周宁县浦源镇鲤鱼溪畔人潮如织。行至鲤礼咖啡店，咖啡师正忙碌地在奶泡上勾勒"福马"拉 花，店内座无虚席，临窗的年轻游客举着手机，将庭院美景与店内烟火气一并定格。 "这几天客流量比平时翻了好几倍，我们从早忙到晚。"咖啡店负责人黄雪琦笑着说。为了让这波"春节 流量"转化为"消费增量"，该店特意将鲤鱼溪的"鱼"和春节的"福"两个意象结合，营造出既有地方特色 又充满喜庆氛围的空间。同时，积极参与"花鲤浦源"线上满减活动，用优惠为春节添香，让更多游客在 咖啡香里品味别样年味。 消费热潮涌动背后，是政策利好的有力支撑。春节期间 ...

Company Developments - The company is expected to release production capacity for KrF photoresist materials, with multiple production lines anticipated to reach full capacity by Q2 2026 [2] - The Dali Haite photoresist project is planned to fully release its capacity by 2026, which will support growth in the electronic materials business [2] - The company has surplus funds of 500 million yuan from oversubscription, leading to strong expectations for mergers and acquisitions, potentially for industry chain integration or new business expansion [3] Industry Policy Environment - The national policy is favorable, with a high-level push for the construction of three international technology innovation centers by 2026, focusing on supporting integrated circuits and new display materials, which aligns with the company's semiconductor photoresist and OLED materials business [4] Industry Demand Trends - The demand for downstream industries is expected to grow, as BOE's first 8.6-generation AMOLED production line has been lit ahead of schedule, likely driving an increase in demand for high-end OLED materials, benefiting the company as an upstream supplier [5] Business Progress - The pharmaceutical business has made progress, with the first phase of the raw material drug project completed and gradually releasing capacity; the pipeline for pharmaceutical intermediates continues to expand, with the number of projects reaching 300 by the end of June 2025, including innovative and generic drug projects [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market decline is a normal adjustment due to short-term profit-taking, not indicative of systemic risk, with a focus on the concentrated risk in previously hot sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices fell over 2%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.48%, Shenzhen Component down 2.69%, and ChiNext down 2.46%, while the STAR 50 Index dropped over 3% [2]. - More than 4,600 stocks declined, with 123 stocks hitting the daily limit down, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.58 trillion, a decrease of 250.8 billion from the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: Causes of Adjustment - The decline was triggered by significant fluctuations in the global precious metals market, leading to panic selling in the A-share precious metals sector, compounded by a natural decline in risk appetite as the Spring Festival holiday approaches [3]. - Despite the drop, the trading volume remained at a trillion-level scale, indicating that the reduction was due to profit-taking rather than panic selling, with defensive sectors like liquor, electric grid equipment, and banking seeing net inflows [3]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Risks - The precious metals sector was the hardest hit, with many stocks hitting the limit down due to high previous gains and concentrated leverage, exacerbated by margin ratio increases triggering forced liquidations [4]. - The semiconductor sector also experienced significant declines, driven by a disconnect between valuations and earnings, as many companies reported substantial profit declines while still being valued at historical highs [4]. - Other cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and oil and gas also weakened, sharing the commonality of crowded trading structures and excessive profit accumulation without solid earnings support [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - It is advisable to temporarily avoid high-volatility hot sectors and focus on low-valuation defensive sectors and areas with policy support, waiting for the risks in hot sectors to be fully released before making investment decisions [5]. - Following the holiday, a return to a stabilizing market rhythm is expected as market sentiment improves and liquidity returns [5].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing increased activity entering 2026, with a continuous rise in recorded transactions over three weeks [1] - The market is showing significant improvement compared to previous years, with increased viewing and transaction rates, particularly in the Futian district [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The number of property viewings has increased by 30% month-on-month, while transaction volumes have risen by over 20% [2] - An average of 120 property viewings per week is reported by a local real estate agency, indicating high demand [2] - The signing volume of second-hand homes in Shenzhen's Beike cooperative stores increased by 26% from January 1 to January 25 compared to the same period last month [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, exempts homes sold after two years from value-added tax and reduces the tax rate from 5% to 3% for homes sold before two years, significantly lowering transaction costs [2] - The reduction in tax rates has stimulated demand, particularly among buyers looking to upgrade their living conditions [3] Group 3: Commercial Property Market - The minimum down payment for commercial property loans has been reduced from 50% to 30%, leading to increased activity in the commercial real estate market [4] - A specific apartment project in Nanshan has seen a surge in visitor numbers from 60 to approximately 180 per week following the policy change, with conversion rates improving from 5% to between 10% and 12% [6][7] - The overall new housing market in Shenzhen is also showing signs of recovery, with new home transactions reaching 1,051 units in the third week of January, a 14.5% increase from the previous week [7]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 受益于行业景气度日渐回暖、海外市场持续开拓、医药利好政策陆续落地，A股生物医药公司2025年在 韧性发展中不断交出创新的成绩单。Wind数据显示，截至1月26日18时，已有超过90家A股生物医药公 司发布2025年业绩预告，共有53家公司预计实现盈利。从预告净利润增幅下限来看，有14家公司预计净 利润倍增（剔除扭亏、减亏）。此外，以岭药业、楚天科技等10家公司预计实现扭亏为盈，迪哲医药、 盟科药业等14家公司同比实现减亏。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 real estate market in China is still undergoing adjustments, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating potential recovery in 2026 [1][8]. Price Trends - In December 2025, new and second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][9]. - The first-tier cities are seen as important indicators of the real estate market, with signs of a potential stop in the price decline [3][10]. - Shanghai showed a relatively better performance, with new home prices rising by 0.2% in December 2025, making it the only first-tier city with an increase [3][10]. Sales Performance - In 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 8.7%, and sales revenue fell by 12.6% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The sales growth rate remains negative, but the decline is less severe than in 2024, indicating some support from both supply and demand sides [1][12]. - By the end of 2025, the total unsold housing area was 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.0% compared to November [12]. Market Expectations - The policy environment is signaling a clear intention to stabilize market expectations, with measures such as extending the housing tax refund policy and lowering commercial property down payment ratios [1][14]. - Analysts expect that the effects of various favorable policies will further be released in 2026, leading to positive adjustments in real estate indicators [1][14]. - The importance of managing market expectations is emphasized, with calls for maintaining policy strength to avoid market volatility [14].