投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内资金了结意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 2/3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅回调，全天弱势。沪深京三市全天成交额 19836 亿元，较上日放量 26 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 上海证券指出，黄金长期避险和投资优势凸显，随着美联储预期持续降息、贸易摩擦扰动，黄金珠宝需 求预计持续增长。古法金与IP金饰引领新潮流，行业消费逻辑重构，婚庆需求下降、悦己消费崛起、轻 量化与投资需求分流。此外，黄金税收政策调整将优化市场投资与消费结构，鼓励场内规范交易，推动 行业从"场外分散"向"场内集中"转型，加速行业合规化进程，为市场长期健康运行提供支撑。在有色金 属领域，政策扩内需持续显效，10月PPI环比由持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨，工业品价格呈现 企稳迹象。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，她产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续 ...

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in the number of new funds launched in November 2023, indicating a resurgence in investor interest [2][3][4] Fund Issuance Trends - As of November 13, 2023, a total of 1,386 new public funds have been established this year, marking a 9.48% increase compared to 1,266 funds in 2022 and a 21.26% increase from 1,143 funds in 2024, setting a three-year high [4][6] - The average fundraising period for new funds has decreased to 16.92 days, down from 19 days the previous week, reflecting increased investor confidence in new fund products [3][4] Product Structure - Equity funds dominate the new fund issuance, with 39 new funds launched in the second week of November, of which 28 are equity products, accounting for 71.79% of the total [3][6] - Among the new equity funds, passive index funds and enhanced index funds are particularly popular, with 15 and 7 funds launched respectively, making up 56.41% of the new equity fund issuance [3][6] Market Dynamics - The issuance of stock funds has reached a 14-year high, with 767 stock funds launched this year, representing 55.34% of the total new funds and 36.95% of the total issuance volume [6][7] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a significant decline, with only 248 new bond funds launched, accounting for 17.89% of the total, and their issuance volume dropping to the lowest level in four years [7][8] FOF Fund Performance - FOF (Fund of Funds) funds have achieved a historic milestone, with 74 new FOF funds launched this year, representing 5.8% of the total issuance volume, the highest recorded since data collection began [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a strong rebound driven by technology stocks and favorable policies, with major indices closing with long lower shadow candlesticks, indicating strong buying support at lower levels and a short-term technical recovery [4]. Market Performance - The market exhibited a broad-based rally, with a good profit-making effect, particularly in the energy storage and new energy sectors, leading to a surge in stocks related to electric power and grid equipment, as well as significant gains in photovoltaic and lithium battery concepts [5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets was 8 trillion, down 2.36%, indicating a continuous decrease in trading volume and a cautious stance from investors, with a lack of willingness to chase high prices [6]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of institutional funds while retail investors showed a net inflow, reflecting a cautious optimism among institutions focusing on sectors with clear policy support and performance certainty, such as electric grid equipment and regional themes [7]. - Retail investor sentiment has improved, with increased participation in speculative trading, particularly in electric grid equipment and Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks, as the market's strong rebound after a deep bottom has boosted retail investors' expectations for further gains [8]. Index and Positioning - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, reflecting the overall market performance [9]. - As of November 5, 27.76% of investors increased their positions, while 17.17% reduced their holdings, indicating a general inclination towards adding to positions [11].

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry is showing signs of volume and price resonance, with some negative electrode companies initiating order price increases and the capacity utilization rate in the graphitization segment improving [1] - XINWANDA has released a 400Wh/kg polymer all-solid-state battery and has trial-produced a laboratory sample of a 520Wh/kg lithium metal super battery [1] - In the wind and storage sector, the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" proposes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the annual new wind power installation should not be less than 120GW (with 15GW from offshore wind), driving market expectations upward [1] Group 2 - The new energy vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which selects 50 listed companies related to the new energy vehicle industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering key areas such as lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles [1] - The new energy storage policy in Henan increases the revenue certainty for independent energy storage stations, validating the logic of high growth in domestic large storage demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points for the first time in 10 years, driven by significant leverage in the market and a rapid increase in margin trading balances, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and investment activity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 27, the total margin trading balance in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.48 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.46 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 177.25 billion yuan [1][3]. - The margin trading balance has increased by over 620 billion yuan since the beginning of 2025, reflecting a growth rate that exceeds market expectations [1]. - The proportion of margin trading balance to the A-share market's circulating market value is 2.5%, and the trading volume of margin transactions accounts for 11.39% of total A-share trading volume, both significantly lower than the peak levels in 2015 [3]. Group 2: Investor Participation - Individual investors remain the primary participants in the margin trading market, with their numbers increasing to 7.74 million, while institutional investors have also shown a steady rise, totaling 50,200 [3]. - The sectors attracting the most net buying through margin trading include electronic components, semiconductors, communication equipment, and software development, with net buying amounts of 4.52 billion yuan and 4.30 billion yuan for electronic components and semiconductors, respectively [3]. Group 3: Brokerage Strategies - Brokerages are focusing on expanding their margin trading client base and increasing market share, with many raising their credit business limits to accommodate growing investor demand [4][5]. - Several brokerages, including Zheshang Securities and Huaxin Securities, have announced increases in their credit business limits, indicating a competitive push to enhance service levels and market presence [5]. - The overall increase in trading volume and margin balances has strengthened the performance certainty of brokerage firms, with analysts noting a significant rise in daily trading volume compared to the previous year [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified competition characterized by a "volume increase, price decrease" phenomenon, as brokerages engage in a pricing war for margin trading services [6]. - Some brokerages are optimizing their service mechanisms and leveraging technology to differentiate their offerings, aiming to provide specialized and precise services to high-net-worth and strategic clients [6]. - Risk management measures are being reinforced by most brokerages to ensure the stable operation of margin trading businesses, with some increasing the margin requirements for financing to balance growth and risk control [7].

Core Insights - The overall stock private equity positions have reached a nearly one-year high, with a particularly aggressive stance from large private equity firms managing between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, where over 60% are fully invested, indicating a highly optimistic market outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Private Equity Positioning - As of October 17, the stock private equity position index rose to 79.68%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, marking a nearly one-year high. Since August, this index has cumulatively increased by 5.75%, showing a significant trend towards increasing positions [1][3]. - Over 63.40% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while medium positions account for 20.41%. Low and empty positions are only 11.47% and 4.72%, respectively, indicating that the majority of private equity firms are opting for high positions [3]. Group 2: Aggressive Positioning of Leading Private Equity Firms - The position index for private equity firms of different sizes as of October 17 is as follows: over 100 billion yuan at 80.18%, 50-100 billion yuan at 87.35%, 20-50 billion yuan at 76.68%, 10-20 billion yuan at 78.09%, 5-10 billion yuan at 80.79%, and 0-5 billion yuan at 79.65%. Notably, firms managing between 50 billion to 100 billion yuan have the highest position at 87.35%, a three-year high [5][6]. - The sustained high positions of large private equity firms reflect their long-term confidence in the market, supported by stable client bases and low redemption pressures, allowing for a long-term holding strategy [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Confidence - The recent upward trend in the A-share market since August, along with clear upward movements in certain growth and consumer sectors, has attracted private equity funds to increase their allocations [6]. - Recent policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth and encouraging innovation have bolstered private equity firms' confidence in the medium to long-term market performance. Additionally, the overall liquidity in the market is reasonable and ample, providing favorable conditions for private equity to increase positions while reducing the costs associated with large-scale adjustments [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Coke and coking coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is generally weak, with the overall domestic demand remaining weak and the rebound momentum of the market being insufficient. It is expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain still existing, but there are also certain expectations for policy benefits [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be more prone to rising than falling, with relatively strong support near the previous lows [4][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions and steel tender information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The daily market fluctuated mainly. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The output continued to decline, and the inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, with a slight decline in output and a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly in September, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebound momentum was insufficient, and it was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The market fluctuated on the day. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year, and the port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel improved month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly from a high level. As the terminal peak season ended and the steel mill profits shrank to a low level, the pressure on iron - making water production cuts increased. There were still concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain due to repeated external trade frictions, but there were also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The second round of price increase for coking started. The coking profit was average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Currently, downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities and mainly consumed inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coke market price was slightly higher than the spot price, and there were expectations for an increase in coke costs due to the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The output did not increase significantly after the holiday. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coking coal market price was slightly lower than the Mongolian coal price, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing information of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The weekly output of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The long - term demand was still good. The quoted price of manganese ore during the shipping period increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the steel tender information. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down nearly 2%, and both the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling over 3%, indicating a cautious and risk-averse sentiment among investors [1] - A joint policy document aimed at the development of the accommodation industry was released after market hours, which may signal an attempt to boost confidence in a sector that has seen a decline of over 10% since late September [1][3] - The tourism and hotel sector index is approaching a critical support level that previously halted further declines earlier this year, with oversold signals suggesting a potential for a rebound, although the overall market conditions will influence the sustainability of any upward movement [1][3] Group 2 - Key market levels to watch include the 60-day moving average for the Shanghai Composite Index, which may rise to around 3790 next week, and the 2900-point mark for the ChiNext Index, with potential implications for mid-term trends if these levels are breached [3] - The newly introduced policies, while comprehensive, will be evaluated by the market based on their ability to improve short-term performance and influence capital flows, with some institutional investors beginning to allocate funds to select tourism stocks [3][4] - The tourism and hotel sector is expected to be a focal point for the market next week, serving as both a beneficiary of the new policies and a test of whether positive news can effectively impact a weak market [4]