A股隐含波动率

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研客专栏 | 关于2025年中央城市工作会议对A股的影响
对冲研投· 2025-07-17 12:25
Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference held from July 14 to 15, 2025, signifies a major shift in China's economic landscape, particularly in the real estate and stock markets, indicating that real estate will no longer be the primary driver of domestic demand, while the stock market will take on this role [3][4][5]. Group 1: Shift in Economic Dynamics - The capital's influence in urban work will gradually decrease, with real estate transitioning from being the engine of domestic demand to a mere indicator of it [4][5]. - A-shares will undergo a significant change in their operational logic, as they will now reflect the internal demand situation rather than just the production center [5][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Evolution - The focus of stock investment will shift to internal demand policies, including real estate, infrastructure, and consumer support policies, with real estate policy being the most critical [8][14]. - The investment paradigm will transition from a reliance on trading strategies to a focus on long-term holding of quality A-share stocks, as they will now play a crucial role in supporting domestic demand [15][19]. Group 3: Market Indicators and Trends - Following the conference, the VIX index has shown a decline, indicating a shift in investment strategies away from speculative trading towards more stable, long-term investments [16][18]. - The historical context shows that while the U.S. stock market has maintained a downward trend in the VIX index with rising stock prices, A-shares have been unique in their previous correlation with an increasing VIX index [20][21].