报告导读： 12 月通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全 球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价格、黑色金属）相对稳 定。往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 12月CPI同比增速+0.8%，环比+0.2%；PPI同比增速-1.9%，环比回升至0.2%。 12月通胀保持稳步回升。食品价格低基数是CPI的主要贡献，核心通胀环 比依然处于季节性上沿，同比维持稳定（+1.2%）。12月的金价重拾涨势是核心通胀维持韧性的关键，但中长期回升依然需要居民资产负债表的持续修复。 PPI环比在12月小幅回升，有色金属是主要的贡献。 CPI：食品拖累减轻，服务贡献抬升 PPI：有色延续强势，黑色链条稳定 总体来看，12月的通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价 格、黑色金属）相对稳定。 往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期。 法律声明 12月PPI同比-1.9%，环比回升 ...

中央经济工作会议释放的内需刺激信号持续发酵，叠加A股年末日历效应的双重加持，易方达价值ETF（基金代码：159263）所跟踪的国证价 值100指数为代表的低估值优质资产，或许正迎来政策与市场的双重布局窗口。 一、内需政策利好来袭，低估资产或迎关注窗口 中央经济工作会议围绕"扩内需、稳物价、促增长"形成政策组合拳，为消费行业和顺周期资产托底支撑。会议把"扩大国内需求"放在首要位 置，重点推进新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新——国补政策不仅继续有，还做得更精准，另外还有 5000亿元超长期特别国债专门支持 内需扩容。同时制定实施城乡居民增收计划，通过稳定就业、提高基础养老金等举措，从根本上提升居民消费能力。 会议首次明确"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，这给消费市场吃了颗定心丸。物价合理回升能有效改善企业盈 利预期，避免低价竞争对行业的拖累，同时稳定居民消费决策，为家电、汽车等大宗消费的持续复苏提供良好环境。 国证价值100指数的行业布局与政策导向高度契合。指数前三大行业涵盖家用电器、银行、有色金属，合计占比近50%，较为匹配以旧换新、 大宗消费升级和稳物价政策的受益方向。且指数当前 ...

证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251217 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.布局围绕AI基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备2026年投资策略 ➢ 2.内需仍有压力，关注积极定调后增量政策的出台——国内观察：2025年11月经济数据 ➢ 3.企业短期贷款与债券融资较好，存款季节性回表——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十一） ➢ 1.商务部：对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税 ➢ 2.海南自贸港将于12月18日全岛封关运作 ➢ 3.美国11月季调后非农就业人口增6.4万人，预期增5万人 | 1.1. 布局围绕 | 基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备 | 年投资策略 | AI | 2026 | ...

预计下周美联储议息会议指引，市场重点关注中央经济工作会议在内需政策的结构力度上的表态，包括 财政、地产与消费政策的措辞等。由于本次利率决策分歧已经较大，预计如果12月降息符合当前市场预 期，而受制于通胀压力，美联储大概率会给偏鹰派指引，26Q1降息概率较低。2024年经济工作会议的 货币政策基调已经调为适度宽松，市场更关注2025年工作会议在财政、地产与消费政策的相关措辞是否 有新的指引。 来源：市场资讯 来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 本周市场持续缩量震荡，资金等待中央经济工作会议指引。保险优化风险因子要求，引导险资发挥耐心 资本优势，监管层提出对券商行业优质机构适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，这对资本市场与非银板块构 成利好。我们认为内需政策的结构力度尚待经济工作会议指引，未来一个阶段从保险、固收+等通道迎 来温和增量资金是大概率事件，短期战术上也不用过于激进，可以耐心等待逐步布局的机会。重点关 注：保险、券商、有色、海外算力、电网设备等。 保险长期股票持仓风险因子要求优化，优质券商有望适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限。此次风险因子下调 本质上降低了保险资金的资本占用，扩大了其在既有资本约束下的股票配置空间。差异化的长期 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative at -5.5%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[3] - The revenue growth rate also turned negative at -3.3% in October, indicating a significant decline in both profit and revenue[5] - The two-year compound growth rate for profits fell to -7.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profit recovery despite base effects being excluded[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Mining sector profits decreased by 12.0%, while manufacturing profits fell by 9.2% in October[6] - State-owned enterprises saw profit growth slow to 3.6% in October, down from previous high growth rates[6] - The computer electronics and automotive sectors were among the top contributors to profit growth, collectively adding 2.6 percentage points to overall profits[6] Group 3: Inventory and Turnover Issues - By the end of October, the nominal growth rate of industrial product inventories rose to 3.7%, indicating increased inventory pressure[6] - The inventory turnover days increased to 20.4 days, and accounts receivable turnover days rose to 69.8 days, highlighting growing turnover pressures[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for profit recovery in the first half of next year, supported by anticipated domestic demand policies and a possible global industrial cycle recovery due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[3] - The government is expected to implement framework policies to stabilize growth ahead of the upcoming Two Sessions[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][19] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand policies and continuous macroeconomic data improvement. The focus on increasing residents' consumption power is a key goal in the "14th Five-Year Plan," making consumption enhancement a future policy priority. The recovery of the food and beverage sub-industries is anticipated under these conditions [2][4] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sub-sectors benefiting from the recovery of dining consumption scenarios, such as frozen foods, condiments, and the broader dining supply chain. Key companies to watch include Anjijia Food, Yihai International, Baba Food, and Guoquan [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Macroeconomic Data - Since March, core CPI has been recovering, with September and October figures at 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. The CPI turned positive in October at 0.2%, indicating a positive price trend. Retail sales of consumer goods from January to September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods consumption outperforming dining consumption [4][2] Policy Environment - The report emphasizes that enhancing residents' consumption rates is a key goal in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with domestic demand playing a crucial role in economic growth. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth has been higher than that of capital formation in recent years, indicating significant potential for consumption growth in China [4][2] Sub-Industry Performance - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with revenue and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 at -5.8% and -6.9%, respectively. The report notes that while the industry is currently at a low point, it is transitioning from "over-competition" to "orderly competition" [4][2] - The performance of leading companies in the consumer goods sector demonstrates resilience, particularly in frozen foods, beer, and dining chain formats. The report highlights that leading companies are adapting to market changes and improving their performance [4][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that technological innovation remains the primary focus for the next five years, with expectations for the technology sector to further develop [1] - The TMT sector's share in A-shares is projected to increase from 30% to 40%, indicating a strengthening narrative around technology [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index is expected to benefit from policy support and industry upgrade trends, reflecting the importance of technological advancement [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF (588360) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index (931643), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - The index selects 50 emerging industry stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Sci-Tech Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, covering key areas such as new energy and biomedicine [1] - The index's performance in the third quarter exceeded 65%, significantly outperforming the Sci-Tech 50 (49.02%) and the Growth Enterprise 50 (59.45%) [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the 15th Five-Year Plan Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in China, focusing on strategic directions in technology innovation, domestic demand, and emerging industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Continuation of Strategic Directions**: The 15th Five-Year Plan will extend and deepen the strategic directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in technology innovation and new productive forces, aiming for a target of at least 20% of GDP from strategic emerging industries [1][11]. 2. **Focus on Domestic Demand**: Policies will emphasize consumption upgrades and investment structure optimization, aiming to release consumption potential through improved supply quality and international standards [1][4]. 3. **Support for Emerging Industries**: The plan will promote cluster development in new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, and biotechnology, with special funding and financing channels to support specialized and innovative enterprises [1][12]. 4. **Capacity Governance**: The plan will address overcapacity issues in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics by enforcing strict environmental and energy consumption standards [1][13]. 5. **Public Service and Income Distribution Reform**: The plan aims to equalize basic public services and reform income distribution to reduce preventive savings in education, healthcare, and elderly care, thereby releasing more consumption capacity [1][16]. 6. **Investment Focus**: Short-term policies may lead to sector rotation effects, with funds potentially shifting from infrastructure to tourism and hospitality sectors, while long-term investments will focus on digital economy, high-end manufacturing, new energy, and the silver economy [3][17]. 7. **Challenges in Consumption**: Despite significant progress in cultivating new consumption drivers, consumption contribution to economic growth has weakened, dropping from 80% to 52% by Q2 2025 [3][9]. 8. **Investment Targets**: Most investment indicators are on track, but some energy security and social welfare targets have not met expectations, such as the nuclear power generation capacity completion rate of 68.8% [3][10]. 9. **Technological Innovation and R&D**: The plan will increase the proportion of basic research in R&D funding and enhance support for national laboratories and high-level universities [1][11]. 10. **Quality Supply and Consumption Upgrade**: The plan aims to improve supply quality to meet consumption upgrade demands, establishing a quality grading certification system [1][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Five-Year Plans**: The evolution of China's Five-Year Plans from 1953 to the present reflects a shift from rapid economic growth to a focus on quality and efficiency [5][6]. 2. **Impact on Capital Markets**: Historical data suggests that while immediate impacts on stock markets may be limited, long-term policy implementations can significantly drive market performance, particularly in technology sectors [8]. 3. **Social Welfare Opportunities**: There are notable opportunities in social welfare sectors, particularly in elderly care and health management, which may see increased investment and development [3][17].

Macro - The core CPI has rebounded year-on-year to -0.3% as of September 2025, while the PPI has also increased year-on-year to -2.3%, indicating that overall price levels still require stimulation [2] - The core CPI's rise is primarily driven by external factors such as consumption subsidy policies and rising gold prices, with other consumer goods not showing significant improvement in internal consumption dynamics [2] - There are strong market expectations regarding the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, but the recent increase in industrial product prices has been largely structural, mainly affecting raw materials and upstream sectors [2] - The marginal weakening of price increase momentum, combined with the overall economic slowdown, suggests that the sustainability of both core CPI and PPI recovery depends on the enhancement of domestic demand policies [2] - Recent policy measures include the relaxation of real estate purchase restrictions in major cities, the rollout of the fourth batch of national subsidy funds, and the initiation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, with expectations for further policy actions and effects [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector has shown resilience with a slight increase in prices and demand, particularly in cement, glass, and fiberglass, indicating potential for recovery [4][11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies and anticipates further implementation of these policies to support the industry [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector (SW) experienced a weekly increase of 0.43%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -0.44% and -0.18% respectively [4] - Cement prices have shown a slight increase, with the national average price at 345.7 RMB/ton, up by 1.7 RMB/ton from the previous week, but down by 35.8 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [4][18] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The average cement shipment rate is approximately 48.3%, with a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [24] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices due to seasonal demand and industry self-discipline [11][17] 2.2 Glass - The average price of float glass is reported at 1208.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 10.9 RMB/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 31.3% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is facing a supply-demand stalemate, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints tighten [13] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report indicates that the fiberglass sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with mid-term improvements anticipated as supply pressures ease [12] - The demand for electronic fiberglass products is expected to rise, driven by advancements in technology and new applications [12] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing government efforts to stimulate domestic demand, which are expected to positively impact the building materials sector [14] - The anticipated policies for 2024 and 2025 are expected to further enhance consumer confidence and demand for home improvement materials [6][14] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the cement sector such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Shanshui Cement, as well as fiberglass companies like China Jushi [11][12][13] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the home improvement sector that are well-positioned to benefit from government policies and market recovery, such as Oppein Home Group and Arrow Home [14][15]