ADT(日均成交)

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香港交易所(00388):成长性可验证,有望迎来重估
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-24 09:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience verifiable growth, leading to a potential revaluation [1] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 38 times, with an upward potential of 24% based on a target PE of 42 times, resulting in a reasonable market value of 692 billion HKD [6][7] - The company benefits from its monopoly status and integrated clearing platform, which allows it to earn commissions from Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [6][7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections (in million HKD) for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 20,516 (11% growth) - 2024: 22,374 (9% growth) - 2025E: 26,978 (21% growth) - 2026E: 29,020 (8% growth) - 2027E: 29,857 (3% growth) [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) is forecasted as: - 2023: 11,862 (18% growth) - 2024: 13,050 (10% growth) - 2025E: 16,477 (26% growth) - 2026E: 17,936 (9% growth) - 2027E: 18,775 (5% growth) [4] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to be: - 2023: 9.36 - 2024: 10.29 - 2025E: 13.00 - 2026E: 14.15 - 2027E: 14.81 [4] Valuation Review - The valuation range for the company is estimated between 30 to 70 times PE, with fundamental and liquidity factors being the core drivers [6][19] - The report emphasizes that the company’s growth potential is supported by the increasing market capitalization of new economy sectors, which have risen from 17% in 2018 to 35% in 2025 YTD [6][59] - The report highlights that the ADT is a critical factor influencing the company's profitability, with expectations for ADT to remain robust due to increased connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong [6][8]