此外，中概股回流香港的趋势将会延续，为香港IPO市场提供额外支撑。近期许多在美国上市的中概 股，回港双重主要上市，对于中概股本身也具有提振作用，相信可纾缓一部分退市的风险。 不过近期亦有新股破发，施琦认为或是因行业定位，在港股未算具备稀缺性，但最终的股价表现，相信 仍会是对业绩的兑现。 针对今年未盈利的生物医药新股，时常出现"数千倍超购"的火爆现象。施琦表示，固然是因为该赛道的 国际竞争力提升，引发市场对于相关股份的估值重估，但也不排除可能"鱼龙混杂"，因为毕竟许多公司 尚且处于早期阶段。 今年以来港股IPO集资额冠全球，人民币债券市场交投大增，并购活动活跃。中金公司（601995）董事 总经理、资本市场部执行负责人施琦在周二(11月11日)举行的"媒体工作坊"上表示，今年港股IPO融资 规模已经突破300亿美元，同比升近2倍，较之于去年的100亿美元，与前年的不足60亿美元，无论从规 模、主题、以及参与度都振奋人心。施琦透露，目前中金公司在手的港股IPO储备项目已超100家，其 中不乏A股头部企业的港股上市计划，相信IPO强劲的势头可以在2026年延续。 施琦强调，今年国际长线投资者、主权基金都更加活跃，甚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) as a rare investment target with both offensive and defensive strengths, maintaining an "overweight" rating. The report notes a significant increase in trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market since September 2024, with the company's financial performance reaching historical highs in the first three quarters of the year. The positive market sentiment is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by policy initiatives encouraging more mainland companies to list in Hong Kong and the return of Chinese concept stocks [1]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX achieved total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, with growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter saw revenue growth of 44.7% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was HKD 13.42 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year, with a 5.7 percentage point increase compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter's net profit growth was 55.8% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Trading fees, trading system usage fees, and settlement and clearing fees accounted for HKD 13.1 billion (60.0% of total revenue), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 83.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The average daily trading volume increased by 126.3% year-on-year to HKD 256.4 billion, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 141.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.5% [2][3]. Investment Income - The net investment income for the first three quarters was HKD 3.89 billion (17.8% of total revenue), a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with growth slowing by 9.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The net investment income from the company's own funds was HKD 1.3 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 4.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The income from margin and clearing house fund investments was HKD 2.6 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 1.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [3]. Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for stock securities on the exchange reached HKD 238.7 billion in the first three quarters, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 132.4%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 149.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.6%. The average daily trading volume in the derivatives market was HKD 17.7 billion, up 67.0% year-on-year, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 59.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [4]. New Listings - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a strong increase in new listings, with 69 new companies listed, a year-on-year increase of 53.3%. The total funds raised amounted to HKD 188.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.7%. Notably, Zijin Mining's listing in the third quarter raised HKD 28.7 billion, making it the second-largest new listing globally this year. As of the end of the third quarter, there were 297 listing applications pending, representing a 253.6% increase compared to the end of the previous year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization in the Greater Bay Area, highlighting its potential benefits and challenges for companies seeking to leverage this new financing model [4][5]. Group 1: RWA Tokenization Overview - RWA refers to the tokenization of real-world assets into tradable digital asset certificates using blockchain technology, with over 13 institutions exploring this model in the past two years [4][7]. - Companies are increasingly interested in RWA not just for financing but also for brand exposure and potential stock price enhancement [4][13]. Group 2: Recent Developments and Case Studies - Since 2024, notable companies like Langxin Group and Huaxia Fund have successfully issued RWA projects, with underlying assets including funds, bonds, and real estate [7][8]. - The total market value of global on-chain RWA assets surpassed $25 billion by July 2025, with projections suggesting the market could exceed $10 trillion by 2030 [9]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The costs associated with issuing RWA projects in Hong Kong can be high, often exceeding HKD 2.5 million, which may deter some companies from pursuing this route [11][12]. - Not all assets are suitable for RWA; successful tokenization requires stable cash flows, clear legal rights, and verifiable off-chain data [18][19]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for RWA is still evolving, with a need for clear classification and compliance pathways based on asset characteristics [19][20]. - There are concerns about systemic risks if transparency and custodial measures are not adequately enforced [20][21]. Group 5: Future Prospects - RWA could provide a new avenue for Chinese companies to return to the Hong Kong market, offering a more flexible and faster alternative to traditional secondary listings [24][25]. - The development of RWA is expected to align with economic trends, with potential breakthroughs in cross-border financial products and limited trials for equity assets [25].

Core Points - Nasdaq has introduced new regulations targeting IPOs and listing maintenance conditions, raising the bar for new companies, accelerating delisting for non-compliant firms, and specifically clarifying fundraising requirements for Chinese companies [2][3] Group 1: New Regulations Overview - The new rules include higher listing thresholds, with public float market value for companies meeting "profitability standards" set at a minimum of $15 million [5] - Companies with market values below $5 million will face accelerated delisting if issues arise [5] - Chinese companies must now meet a minimum fundraising requirement of $25 million for IPOs, explicitly defined as "public offering fundraising" [5][6] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Companies - Currently, there are 411 Chinese companies listed in the U.S., with 338 on Nasdaq, representing over 80% [7] - Approximately 36 Chinese companies have market values below $5 million, and around 46 have values between $5 million and $10 million, indicating potential delisting risks for low-value stocks [7] - The new fundraising threshold will significantly increase the barriers for future Chinese IPOs in the U.S., as only three out of 21 Chinese companies that went public this year met the $25 million requirement [7] Group 3: Implications for Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The new Nasdaq regulations may lead to a shift of Chinese companies seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) as an alternative [8] - HKEX has been optimizing its listing mechanisms, offering more flexible fundraising requirements compared to Nasdaq [8] - The increasing acceptance of Chinese companies by HKEX investors, along with the opening of the Stock Connect mechanism, enhances the attractiveness of HKEX for Chinese firms [9] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The influx of companies to HKEX may lead to concerns over the quality of listings, as some firms may have unstable earnings or unclear business models [9][10] - HKEX must maintain rigorous listing standards to avoid the risk of "sick companies" entering the market, which could harm its reputation [10] - Investors should focus on the fundamentals of newly listed Chinese companies in HKEX, analyzing their revenue structure and profitability prospects to avoid speculative investments [10]

Summary of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and its valuation dynamics influenced by various factors, including historical events like the launch of Stock Connect programs and the return of Chinese concept stocks [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Valuation History**: HKEX has experienced three significant valuation increases historically, with valuations typically above 30 times earnings [2][4]. 2. **Profitability Metrics**: HKEX operates on a light asset model, maintaining an EBITDA margin above 70% and a return on equity (ROE) above 20%, with a stable dividend payout ratio around 90% [2][6]. 3. **IPO Reforms**: Recent reforms have attracted new economy companies, with their market capitalization now exceeding 35%, indicating room for further growth [2][6]. 4. **Southbound Fund Dynamics**: The structure of southbound funds has shifted, with insurance and public funds becoming dominant, contributing over 35% to the average daily trading volume [2][7]. 5. **Cost Reduction for Retail Investors**: HKEX has optimized its settlement fee structure to lower trading costs for small retail investors, aiming to increase participation [2][8]. 6. **Market Recovery Factors**: Anticipated recovery factors for the second half of the year include potential easing of thresholds for Chinese concept stock returns, possible reductions in stamp duty, and changes in the tax treatment of Hong Kong Stock Connect dividends [2][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Current Valuation Context**: The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40 is considered to be at a historical average, with a conservative estimate projecting a net profit of HKD 16.5 billion for 2025, suggesting a target valuation of 42 times earnings, equating to a market cap of approximately HKD 690 billion, indicating a 20% upside potential [3][10]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: Despite perceptions of high pricing among investors, detailed analysis suggests that HKEX still possesses significant upside potential, warranting a buy rating [11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the HKEX conference call, highlighting the company's financial health, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Core Insights - The report by Futu highlights a robust IPO market in Hong Kong for the first half of 2025, with Hong Kong reclaiming the top position globally in terms of IPO fundraising [1][2] - The report indicates a strong demand for consumer sector IPOs, with significant interest from both institutional and retail investors [2][5] Hong Kong IPO Market - In H1 2025, Futu acted as an underwriter for 19 Hong Kong IPOs, collaborating with notable projects such as Mixue Group and Blooko [1] - The total fundraising amount in the Hong Kong IPO market reached a significant level, with 54.8% of companies achieving over 100 times subscription rates [1][2] - The consumer sector led the IPO market, while healthcare, industrial, and information technology sectors are expected to gain traction in the latter half of the year [1][2] Subscription Trends - The report notes a high subscription sentiment in the Hong Kong IPO market, with 23 companies achieving over 100 times subscription and 5 companies exceeding 1,000 times [2] - The "money-making effect" from new stocks has created a positive feedback loop, with 30 companies seeing a high first-day closing price, a significant increase from 19 in the previous year [2][5] A+H Listings - Seven A-share companies listed in Hong Kong during H1 2025, contributing over HKD 77 billion, which accounted for 72.2% of total fundraising in the Hong Kong market [8] - There are over 50 A-share companies planning to pursue IPOs in Hong Kong, indicating a continuation of the A+H listing trend [8] US IPO Market - The number of Chinese concept stocks listed in the US increased to 40 in H1 2025, up from 25 in the previous year, although total fundraising decreased to USD 880 million [9] - The first-day performance of Chinese concept stocks improved, with only 32.5% of companies falling below their offering price, a decrease from 44% in the previous year [9] Futu's Market Position - Futu has provided IPO services to over 327 companies across various sectors, maintaining a leading position among Hong Kong tech brokers [10] - The platform's subscription amount accounted for over 20% of the market, with 40 companies achieving more than 40% of the market's subscription amount [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of Chinese concept stocks (Chinext) returning to the Hong Kong market due to increasing regulatory pressures in the U.S. and the potential for Hong Kong to become a global technology capital hub and a strategic point for integrating Chinese assets into the global market [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Background of U.S.-China Tensions - The U.S. has long had regulatory tensions regarding Chinese companies listed in the U.S., particularly following the signing of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) in late 2020, which requires foreign companies to undergo audits or face delisting [4][5]. - In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of delisting Chinese stocks, prompting a response from Hong Kong's financial authorities, who are prepared to welcome these companies back [5][6]. Pathways for Chinext to Return - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has established three main pathways for Chinext to return: 1. Re-listing in Hong Kong after privatization in the U.S. 2. Secondary listing in Hong Kong through instruments like Depositary Receipts (DR). 3. Dual primary listing, allowing companies to be listed on multiple exchanges while meeting all regulatory requirements [6][8]. Impact on Hong Kong Market - The return of Chinext is expected to significantly increase trading volume in the Hong Kong market, as seen during previous return waves in 2018-2021, where companies like Xiaomi and Alibaba contributed to substantial increases in IPO fundraising [8][9]. - The structure of the Hong Kong market is also anticipated to change, with a shift towards technology and new economy sectors, as traditional sectors like finance and real estate see their weight decrease [9][11]. Global Capital Market Dynamics - The return of Chinext is reshaping the global capital market landscape, reflecting a shift in financial power dynamics between the U.S. and China, and indicating a move towards a multi-polar capital market structure [10][12]. - The trend is also contributing to a "de-dollarization" movement, as global capital seeks alternatives to U.S. assets, with Hong Kong emerging as a strategic exit for capital fleeing from U.S. markets [12][13]. Regulatory and Market Environment - Hong Kong's unique regulatory environment and its position as a bridge between mainland China and international markets provide a favorable backdrop for the return of Chinext, enhancing its appeal to both domestic and international investors [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience verifiable growth, leading to a potential revaluation [1] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 38 times, with an upward potential of 24% based on a target PE of 42 times, resulting in a reasonable market value of 692 billion HKD [6][7] - The company benefits from its monopoly status and integrated clearing platform, which allows it to earn commissions from Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [6][7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections (in million HKD) for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 20,516 (11% growth) - 2024: 22,374 (9% growth) - 2025E: 26,978 (21% growth) - 2026E: 29,020 (8% growth) - 2027E: 29,857 (3% growth) [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) is forecasted as: - 2023: 11,862 (18% growth) - 2024: 13,050 (10% growth) - 2025E: 16,477 (26% growth) - 2026E: 17,936 (9% growth) - 2027E: 18,775 (5% growth) [4] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to be: - 2023: 9.36 - 2024: 10.29 - 2025E: 13.00 - 2026E: 14.15 - 2027E: 14.81 [4] Valuation Review - The valuation range for the company is estimated between 30 to 70 times PE, with fundamental and liquidity factors being the core drivers [6][19] - The report emphasizes that the company’s growth potential is supported by the increasing market capitalization of new economy sectors, which have risen from 17% in 2018 to 35% in 2025 YTD [6][59] - The report highlights that the ADT is a critical factor influencing the company's profitability, with expectations for ADT to remain robust due to increased connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is expected to report strong earnings growth in Q2 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1] - For Q2 2025, total revenue is anticipated to reach HKD 68.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% and a flat quarter-on-quarter performance, while the main fee income is expected to be HKD 54.8 billion, up 30% year-on-year [1] - The trading activity in spot and commodity markets remains high, while derivatives trading shows a marginal decline; spot trading ADT is projected to be HKD 2,381 billion, a 96% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The IPO market is expected to remain active, with 27 IPOs completed in Q2 2025, raising HKD 884 billion, which is a significant increase of 932% year-on-year [1] - The investment income is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to HKD 13.9 billion, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and increased margin requirements in a high volatility market [1] - The long-term growth potential for HKEX is supported by the expected increase in daily trading volume, with a projected CAGR of 14% for the next decade, leading to a profit CAGR of 12% [2] Group 3 - The current valuation of HKEX is at 34x/32x P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of HKD 465, indicating an 11% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting significant liquidity improvements and potential for valuation recovery, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors [1][5][18]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a notable increase in liquidity, primarily due to the rising proportion of new economy companies and increased participation from southbound funds and retail investors, which now account for approximately 40% of the market [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and brokerage sectors will benefit from high market activity and robust earnings support, with IPO financing expected to reach HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a sevenfold increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The potential return of Chinese concept stocks to the Hong Kong market could significantly enhance trading volume and total market capitalization, with estimates suggesting an increase of 17% to 20% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active in the second half of 2025, with an increase in the number of listings and trading volume, particularly in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - The market's appeal for new economy assets has been bolstered by reforms at the HKEX and geopolitical factors [2][18]. Liquidity Improvement - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to both asset and funding sides, with a notable increase in the proportion of new economy companies enhancing tradability [3][5]. - The report emphasizes that improved liquidity has led to a revaluation of companies, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [5][18]. Impact of New Economy Companies - New economy companies have significantly influenced the market, with their market capitalization increasing from 27% in 2015 to over 51% by the end of 2024, and their trading volume now exceeding 70% [16][17]. - These companies are expected to drive higher turnover rates and valuations compared to traditional sectors [17]. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines that the future growth of the Hong Kong stock market will be supported by the influx of new assets and the revaluation of existing companies, driven by domestic enterprises seeking overseas financing and foreign companies returning to avoid geopolitical risks [18][19]. - The HKEX is projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates suggesting a 31% year-on-year increase in Q2 earnings, reaching HKD 15.4 billion for the year [4][22]. Brokerage Sector Outlook - Key Chinese brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan are expected to benefit significantly from the development of the Hong Kong market due to their strong overseas revenue and competitive edge [4][25]. - The overall outlook for the Chinese brokerage industry is positive, with expected profit growth of nearly 20% for the year [28].