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信达证券:计算机板块“牛市旗手”属性凸显 基本面与流动性共振
智通财经网· 2025-12-01 03:18
Core Viewpoint - The computer sector has shown a four-phase trend in 2023: initial buildup, peak in February, mid-year adjustment, and breakthrough in September, influenced by the continuation of the 924 market, phenomenon-level catalysts like DeepSeek, and structural improvements in fundamentals [1] Group 1: AI+Coding - The global AI coding tools market is projected to grow from $6.7 billion in 2024 to $25.7 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - In China, the AI code generation market is expected to increase from 6.5 billion RMB in 2023 to 33 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 38.4% [2] - High penetration rates in the internet and gaming industries are attributed to the characteristics of industry development, such as intensive project-based work and rapid iteration [2] Group 2: AI+Office - The AI+office software market in China is forecasted to reach 30.864 billion RMB in 2024 and grow to 191.137 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 57.75% [3] - The core user base for AI office products is stabilizing, with a trend towards integrated product forms [3] - Quark leads the market with over 80 million visits, followed by major players like Tencent Docs and WPS AI, indicating a concentration of over 80% of top products in the hands of internet companies [3] Group 3: AI+Cybersecurity - Major manufacturers are increasingly utilizing machine learning and natural language processing to enhance security detection efficiency and accuracy, transitioning from traditional to proactive defense strategies [4] - The market for AI-driven security applications in China is expected to reach $1.6 billion by 2028, with a CAGR exceeding 230% [4] Group 4: Intelligent Driving - The VLA architecture is a new technology that translates visual information into understandable logic for vehicle operation, aiming for Level 5 full autonomous driving [5] - Sales of highway NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) are projected to rise from 363,000 units to 2.65 million units from January 2023 to January 2025, with penetration increasing from 8.7% to 35.7% [5] Group 5: Industrial Software - The capital expenditure in downstream industries is declining, with the steel sector showing a stabilization in growth at 0.8% year-on-year [6] - High-end design software, particularly those leveraging physical AI for advanced simulation, is emerging as a breakthrough direction with strong valuation elasticity [6] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in AI+Coding include Zhuoyi Information; in AI+Office: Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, Zhiyuan Interconnection, and Fanwei Network; in AI+Finance: Jiufang Investment and Tonghuashun; in AI+Cybersecurity: Deepin Technology and Anheng Information; in intelligent automotive: Horizon Robotics, Desay SV, and Zhongke Chuangda; in industrial software: Zhongkong Technology, Rongzhi Rixin, and Saiyi Information [8]
AI全域赋能,业绩周期与技术周期同步向上
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-01 03:03
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upward synchronization of performance cycles and technology cycles in the computer industry, driven by AI empowerment and structural improvements in fundamentals [1][2][3] - The computer sector is characterized as a "bull market leader," with a significant resonance between fundamentals and liquidity, reflecting strong market recognition of revenue expansion potential [3][20] - The report forecasts substantial growth in various AI applications, including AI Coding, AI in office software, AI in finance, network security, intelligent driving, and industrial software, indicating a broad market opportunity [3][11][12][13][14][16][17] Group 1: AI Applications - AI Coding is projected to reshape software development paradigms, with a global market value expected to grow from $6.7 billion in 2024 to $25.7 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2% [3][11][12] - The Chinese AI code generation market is anticipated to expand from 6.5 billion RMB in 2023 to 33 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 38.4% [3][12] - AI in office software is expected to reach a market size of 30.86 billion RMB in 2024, growing to 191.14 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 57.75% [3][12] - The network security market is projected to grow to $1.6 billion by 2028, with a CAGR exceeding 230%, driven by the integration of AI technologies [3][14] - Intelligent driving technologies are evolving towards L3 commercial applications, with significant growth in high-speed NOA penetration from 8.7% to 35.7% between 2023 and 2025 [3][16] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI Coding, such as Zhuoyi Information, and those in AI office software like Kingsoft Office and Foxit Software [3][11][12] - In the AI finance sector, companies like Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu are highlighted for their innovative applications [3][13] - For network security, firms such as Deepin and Anheng Information are recommended due to their advancements in AI-driven security solutions [3][14] - In the intelligent driving space, companies like Desay SV and Zhongke Chuangda are noted for their leadership in high-performance driving solutions [3][16] - Industrial software firms like Zhongkong Technology and Rongzhi Rixin are recognized for their contributions to AI-driven industrial transformations [3][17]