Core Event and Commentary - The recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict, marked by Trump's announcement of a successful "decapitation operation," has led to increased volatility in PAX GOLD prices, with market opinions divided and awaiting further clarity on the situation [1] - The outcome of the conflict, whether it results in a "lightning war" or a prolonged engagement, will significantly impact the prices of geopolitically sensitive assets such as gold, silver, oil transportation, and military industries [1] - From a long-term perspective, the US-Iran conflict may accelerate the process of de-globalization, leading to a reshaping of supply chains, with "re-globalization" backup industries, strategic resource "security premiums," and military armament becoming key themes [1] - The oil market previously anticipated a long-term weak outlook, but significant discrepancies in expectations exist, which could influence global economic forecasts and asset allocation strategies [1] - The "barbell strategy" and "all-weather strategy" remain applicable in response to market uncertainties following the US-Iran events, emphasizing the need for quick investment decisions in cases of significant asymmetry [1] Tactical and Strategic Response Tactical Level: Flexible Response to Short-term Volatility - In the scenario of a lightning war ending, risk appetite may initially decline but could recover, leading to potential short-term spikes and subsequent corrections in gold, silver, oil transportation, and military assets; other risk assets like stocks may face pressure but could return to previous trends, while bonds may be influenced by a retreat in safe-haven sentiment, and the dollar may experience short-term strength [2] - In the case of a prolonged conflict, risk appetite is likely to remain low, with increased volatility in gold, silver, oil transportation, and military assets; stocks may experience weak fluctuations, and while bonds may benefit from safe-haven demand, rising oil prices could trigger inflation expectations, potentially weakening the dollar further [2] Strategic Level: Upholding Long-term Trends and Existing Allocations - The long-term strategy focuses on three core contradictions: the need for AI industry application value realization, K-shaped differentiation in the global debt cycle (with a slowdown in monetary easing), and the reshaping of supply chains and strategic resource security premiums amid de-globalization [2] - For major asset classes, the "new barbell strategy" (commodities + bonds to avoid sovereign credit risk) or "all-weather strategy" with diversified allocations is recommended [2] - In equity markets, increasing allocations to emerging market resources and value stocks while reducing exposure to US tech stocks is advised, with a balanced approach in A-shares; attention should be given to resource stocks (copper and other strategic resources, precious metals, chemicals) and tech stocks (domestic replacements, AI+), while defensive positions should include high-dividend sectors such as utilities [2]