记者 尹睿 报道 8月25日,A股市场继续走高,沪指逼近3900点,收盘报3883.56点,日内上涨1.51%。市场成交额超3万亿元,刷 新年内成交额纪录。 与此同时,银行大额存单转让市场也热度飙升,在多家银行手机APP的转让专区,大量存单被持有人以小幅 折价的方式挂牌出让,部分产品甚至刚购入数日就被急售,引发市场对资金流向的热议。 大额存单"拼手速" 有的仅持有数日就转让 "上周刚抢到一个2%以上的大额存单!"最近,90后投资者苏女士刚办完婚礼,手中尚有闲钱想进行一些投 资,她蹲守多家银行APP转让区,成功抢到一张"心仪"的大额存单,"我这张存单,原本年利率为1.55%,但是因 为转让方让利,实际年化收益率大概在2.54%。" 记者观察发现,多个银行APP转让区让利产品密集。以招商银行为例,不少持有仅10天左右的存单伴随小 幅让利挂牌,剩余期限不足20天、本金20万元的存单也频繁出现,且转让成功的存单到期测算年化利率多 高于在售产品。有银行人士向记者表示,"需要用资金了,又想快点儿转出,客户往往就会让利转让。"另据 媒体报道,在某城商行的大额存单转让区,8月21日以来转让存单成交测算到期利率超2.4%,最高 ...

A股复盘 | 股债汇商齐涨 / 2025.08.25 今天中国资产全面上涨，股债汇商！人民币兑美元中间价报7.1161，上调160点，创7个月来最大幅度！债市也有反弹，商品中焦煤领涨超 6%。 我们大A就更不用说了！这涨势明天就3900点了，这么下去，4000点这周也就搞定了！ 根据汇丰银行最新研报，该行认为由于存款搬家、基金发行和保险资金买入带来的充裕国内流动性，股市反弹将持续。鉴于充裕的流动性， 汇丰银行将2025年底上证指数目标从3700点上调至4000点，沪深300指数目标从4300点上调至4600点， 深证成指目标从11500点上调至 13000点。更新后的2025年底指数目标意味着有5-7%的上涨空间。 | | SHCOMP | CSI300 | SZCOMP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Dividend yield (%) | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | | Index level | 3.825.8 | 4.378.0 | 12.166.1 | | Net profit growth YR1 (2025e) | 9.4% | 8.6% | 38.7% | ...

陈果投资策略 摘要 展望后市，游资及活跃、外资"FOMO"买入、居民加速流入，微观流动性边际仍充裕，同时内部重要事 件、外部"鲍威尔放鸽"，或推动牛市第二阶段加速演绎。另一方面，上证指数ERP可能即将突破近10年 均值（全A与沪深300尚有一定空间）这也标志着指数的估值修复完成相当部分，而市场进入牛市第三 阶段仍需基本面支撑，且美联储9月之后的降息路径仍有不确定性，需密切关注短期市场上涨斜率，如 果演绎过快，则后续震荡概率加剧。中期维度A股证券化率、市值存款比等指标与历次牛市顶部仍有明 显距离，信心重估牛中期趋势未完。短期成长风格依然主导，部分增量资金可能更关注其中的低位方 向。重点行业关注：港股、计算机、机器人、国产算力/半导体/海外算力、医药、非银、化工、有色、 军工等。 近期不同增量资金的行为特征 游资及私募（尤其是百亿私募）活跃、外资"FOMO"买入、居民加速流入，推动市场加速上涨，科技成 长占优。7月私募基金备案金额创2022年来新高，8月15日当周百亿私募仓位创年内单周最大加仓纪录， 近3周龙虎榜营业部净买入金额大增，显示游资+私募积极活跃；此外龙虎榜上沪深股通专用席位近期 大幅流入，外资或因"害 ...

新京报贝壳财经记者 胡萌 编辑 杨娟娟 校对 杨利 连日来，上证指数连续突破3600点、3700点关口，且一度破十年前高点，8月20日，市场主要指数持续 走强，上证指数涨1.04%报3766.21点，北证50再次刷新历史纪录。市场情绪持续高涨，"牛市"之声再 起。 站在当前这个关键节点，A股下一步将何去何从？面对如此行情，普通投资者又该如何应对？新京报贝 壳财经围绕相关热点话题直播连线国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员、复旦大学管理学院特聘教授 邵宇进行深度解读。 本轮市场情绪由科技革新（如DeepSeek）、外部美联储降息预期及地缘缓和等因素推动，近期军工及 新质生产力相关预期也逐渐明晰，叙事呈现"科技牛"等多元特点。 总体而言，两轮行情在基本面托举、流动性充裕及情绪驱动上有相似之处，但政策力度、杠杆渠道和叙 事逻辑存在差异，需细致甄别。 新京报贝壳财经：哪些因素可能会影响本轮行情的走势？ 邵宇指出，当前市场出现高风险资产与避险资产齐涨，而债券等资产表现承压的独特现象，股债"跷跷 板"效应近日尤为明显，因此推荐投资者采用"杠铃策略"进行资产配置，其特征在于"进可攻退可守"。 ▲国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September under pressure from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, which is likely to benefit the stock market [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The U.S. money market fund size has reached $7 trillion, and a restart of rate cuts will lead funds to seek new opportunities, aligning with a global rate-cutting cycle that will favor the stock market [1] - The Hang Seng Index's next target is projected to be 26,500 points, with short-term adjustments expected and support around 24,500 points, making it an attractive entry point for investors [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Recent earnings and guidance from major tech stocks were positive, which should have been a catalyst for the sector; however, market expectations were high, leading to some stock adjustments, presenting a low-buy opportunity given current valuations are not overly expensive [1] - A barbell strategy is recommended for investors, with recent increases in domestic bank stocks, Chinese telecom stocks, and domestic insurance stocks; however, in a volatile market with ongoing rate cut themes, it remains necessary to hold these related stocks [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3700 points, marking a new high since September 2021 [1] - Financial technology, securities, battery, and optical module sectors have performed strongly, while banking and dividend sectors have weakened [2][4] - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in ETF investments, with significant outflows from certain technology-focused ETFs [3][4] Market Performance - Over 20 ETFs related to financial technology and other growth sectors saw gains exceeding 10% last week, including those from major fund houses like Huaxia and E Fund [2] - Conversely, several banking and dividend-themed ETFs experienced declines of around 3% [2] ETF Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs approached 2 trillion yuan, with stock and bond ETFs contributing over 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The E Fund's Hong Kong Securities Investment ETF reached a record weekly trading volume of nearly 120 billion yuan [3] Fund Flows - There has been a clear trend of profit-taking, with significant outflows from ETFs like Huaxia's STAR 50 and Jiashi's STAR Chip ETFs, despite their price increases [3] - Conversely, funds have flowed into broader market ETFs such as Huaxia's 50 ETF and others focused on non-bank financials and internet sectors [4] Investment Strategy Shifts - The market is shifting from a focus on "banking + micro盘" to a valuation based on fundamental trends, particularly in growth sectors [4] - Analysts suggest a "barbell strategy" is emerging, favoring growth stocks over traditional dividend-paying stocks [4] Future Market Outlook - The market may experience a shift in trading logic, moving from emotion-driven rapid increases to trends supported by fundamentals [5] - Key sectors to watch include technology breakthroughs, high global market share manufacturing, and potentially high-growth areas like pharmaceuticals and new consumption [5]

估值的约束与盈利的潜力 本周（2025-08-11 至 08-15，全文同）上证指数接近 3700，万得全 A 的 PB 水平已经达到 1.74，距离历史上 ROE 下行 期股价抢跑基本面所对应的最高 2 倍的 PB 水平已经不到 10%的空间，单从总量看未来股价继续抢跑基本面的空间开 始变得有限，市场进一步的机会将存在于内部定价的大幅偏离中。受制于盈利预期的大部分权重资产仍在估值低位， 盈利预期的改善带来的结构机会将会更大。而从市场定价来看，当前市场已经从银行+微盘转向对基本面趋势的定价， 只不过主要集中在依赖于产业趋势的成长风格领域。杠铃策略完全转向了成长风格，以银行为代表的红利低波跑输市 场。当前市场的交易情绪和参与投资的交易者数量也已经突破了 2025 年 3 月的"Deepseek 时刻"。但值得注意的是在 成长内部已经出现了大小盘风格切换的迹象：从过去的以国证 2000 为代表的小盘成长向以创业板指为代表的大盘成 长切换，背后核心在于大小盘之间的估值差异达到了历史峰值附近，有产业赛道加持的成长龙头更能让投资者关注其 盈利能力。而代表大盘蓝筹风格的沪深 300 依旧跑输，对于宏观经济的预期依旧较弱。 ...

教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 那些曾经担忧"满减"行情会迅速到来的声音渐渐消散，取而代之的是市场持续攀升的气势如虹。 以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 有人翻出了尘封已久的牛市论，有人开始计算离历史高点还有多少空间，也有人悄悄清仓离场，留下一句"该回调了"的喃喃自语。 站在这个时点回望，A股从去年924行情的爆发，到今年初的震荡盘整，再到近期的稳步攀升，市场正在用自己独特的语言讲述一个关于韧 性与周期的故事。 代表主动权益基金整体走势的偏股混合型基金指数，今年以来收益已超过16%，这是2021年之后的首次。虽然仍低于2021年2月历史高点 20%，但已经让不少坚守的投资者看到了曙光。 （来源：Choice） 这些数字背后，是无数投资者的期待、焦虑与抉择。市场永远如此，在同一个点位上，映照着千百种不同的心境。 01 3600点的重量： 在历史的维度中理解当下 上证指数当前的位置，承载着太多象征意义。往前看，距离去年10月的高点3674点仅有一步之遥；继续回溯，距过去十年峰值3731点已不 足百点。· 这种逼近临界点的状态，让3600点不再是一个普通的整数关口，而是成为了心理预期与 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that with the market stabilizing around 3600, a slow bull trend in the stock market is evident, and both dividend and technology assets are expected to yield excess returns in the long term, with a barbell strategy gaining attention [1] - The Shanghai 180 Index employs a barbell strategy consisting of 90% dividend and 10% technology assets, making it a good choice for equity market allocation, benefiting from both stable dividends and the growth of technology [1] - As of August 13, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index has increased by 0.42%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (up 3.55%) and Zijin Mining (up 3.40%) [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which selects 180 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai stock market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 25.4% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and China Ping An [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF has various connection funds available for investment, enhancing accessibility for investors [2]

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The A-share market, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks all experienced an increase this week, with the A-share index (CSI 300) rising by 1.2% over the past week, 2.2% over the past month, and 4.3% year-to-date [20][21][22] - The performance of various indices includes the CSI 500 rising by 1.8% weekly and the ChiNext index increasing by 0.5% [21][22] Group 2: A-share Style and Crowding Degree - Growth style continues to show low crowding and excess returns, with a weekly excess of -0.9% and a year-to-date excess of 3.0% [26][27] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks with a weekly excess of 0.7% and a year-to-date excess of 7.3% [26][27] - Micro-cap stocks showed a significant outperformance against fund-heavy stocks, with a year-to-date excess return of 46.1% [26][27] Group 3: A-share Valuation and Equity-Debt Ratio - The current PE_TTM of the A-share market is at a historically high percentile of 82%, indicating a marginal upward trend [64] - The CSI 300's valuation is at a high percentile of 69%, while the CSI 500 is at 62%, and the ChiNext is at a low percentile of 17% [64][71] - Sectors with extremely low valuations include consumption (10%) and real estate (11%), while sectors with extremely high valuations include pharmaceuticals (86%) and electronics (81%) [71]