春归 ——2026年3月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 分析师：王国兴 执业证书编号：S0930524070013 分析师：郭磊 执业证书编号：S0930524060002 2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2月份资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动，随后持续回升。我们认为，波动的核心原因一方面与春 节前市场交易热度下行有关，另一方面与短期政策引导市场情绪降温、部分中长期资金短期流出有关。但短期波动并不影响市场长期趋势，春节后 市场逐步回升，交易热度也同步提升。 核心观点二：春季行情或将延续。春节后，市场交易热度出现季节性回升，为后续市场表现奠定了基础。同时，未来一个月市场将进入数据与政策 的密集验证期。1-2月份的一系列经济金融数据将逐步披露，为市场形成全年经济的基准预期奠定核心依据。从目前已披露的部分数据及高频数据 来看，经济仍然处于稳步高质量修复的趋势之中。结合此前披露的年报预告情况，预计后续经济与企业盈利数据将对资本市场形成有力支撑。此外， 全国两会将于3月召开，会议将明确全年政策基调 ...

证券研究报告 家用电器 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 符超然 SAC：S1350525050004 fuchaoran@huayuanstock.com 李咏红 SAC：S1350525090001 liyonghong@huayuanstock.com 联系人 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 追觅春晚高投入带来高曝光，新兴家 电有望迈向"国民化" ——家电行业周报（2026/2/23-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 高举高打的营销过后，需关注追觅短期投放效果及其对行业的深层影响。 1）追觅科技：26Q1 是观察其营销费效比的关键节点，后续需重点关注其主业的收 入、份额情况、以及新业务的落地进展。 2）行业规模：扫地机等新兴家电行业正处于从"可选"向"必选"跨越的关键期， 追觅利用春晚等"国民级"渠道进行品类教育，有望带动行业渗透率二次拉升，加 速其向类似白电的刚需属性转化。 3）竞争格局：追觅的大力投放预计将使行业格局产生新的变化，或将加速尾部品牌 的出清，头部品牌的市场份额也可能有一定程度的 ...

（本文作者柏文喜为中国企业资本联盟副理事长） 一、低风险资产：筑牢组合抗跌底线 低风险资产是反脆弱组合的基础支撑，其核心价值在于经济下行与市场震荡阶段保持价值相对稳定，为 整体组合提供安全垫。2026年，具备现金流稳健、需求刚性、防御属性突出的消费、医疗保健、能源等 板块，仍是底仓配置的重点方向。 二、聚焦价值验证：2026年核心资产布局方向 （一）远离纯概念炒作，拥抱有现金流支撑的AI企业 人工智能仍是中长期产业趋势，但前期缺乏盈利支撑的纯概念标的正面临估值回归。投资应聚焦营收扎 实、盈利路径清晰、商业化落地成熟的优质企业。这类企业的价值已通过营收增长与客户渗透兑现，而 非单纯依赖市场叙事。 （二）布局战略型 IPO，把握未来基础设施机遇 2026年IPO市场的核心机会，集中在处于产业链关键节点、承担底层基础设施功能的战略型企业。这类 公司与全球产业趋势、长期科技格局高度绑定，具备较强的不可替代性。 2023至2025 年全球资产价格上行，本质是流动性宽松与技术叙事的双重驱动。美联储低利率环境推动 资金集中流向高成长赛道，人工智能、加密资产等领域凭借"颠覆性创新"标签，获得市场对其未来成长 空间的持续溢价。 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：姜娅、刘济玮、蒋祎、杜一帆 马年春节消费延续分化表现，整体符合预期，其中酒店、景区、高端酒等呈现较优景气度，受出行分流 的部分影响，零售、票房等表现总体一般。我们维持观点，消费自身修复行进之中、企稳中有分化，短 期消费的整体beta性机会关注财政刺激类政策的可能性。建议2026年重点关注权益市场的财富效应传 导、供给端优化推动的率先经营拐点机会，长期配置继续重视结构变化。 ▍出行：旅游市场高景气，酒店板块超预期。 2026年马年春节假期9天连休，且存"请5休15"拼假可行性，为"史上最长春节"，催生"先返乡、后出 游"或多地游多段式旅行。此外，此次春节假期期间大部地区气温较往年偏高，气象条件总体适宜出 行。根据交通运输部，春运前20天全社会跨区域累计人员流动量同比增长5.2%，其中民航、铁路、公 路分别同比增长5.4%、4.9%、5.4%，好于预期。根据酒店之家，基于上年农历同期口径，春节9天假期 中前8天平均Occ为51.4%/同比+3.3ppts，平均ADR为293.1元/同比+10.1%，平均RevPAR为150.1元/同比 +17.6%，显著优于节前我们的预期（ ...

2026 年全球市场正处于从低息、全球化的稳定格局向货币、财政、地缘政治和科技多领域快速变革的结构性转型阶段，最终新秩序尚未明朗，结构性通 胀、高政府债务、供应链重组等因素重塑全球经济，传统宏观经济关系失效，投资需更注重情境分析与灵活应变。整体而言，报告对 2026 年经济前景持正 面态度，国家主义产业政策、财政支出将推动资本支出周期，发达经济体（英国除外）增长加速，亚洲内需与改革奠定良好基础，各资产类别与区域市场呈 现差异化发展特征。 在焦点主题领域，人工智能领域建议采取 "杠铃策略"，短期布局数据中心价值链的基础设施推动者，长期关注代理式、实体人工智能等新兴领域的应用 者，当前人工智能基建融资方式转变，资本支出将持续增长。数字资产方面，比特币市值突破 2 万亿，价格波幅收窄、机构投资者入场使其逐步具备财富累 积工具属性，小比例配置或能提升投资组合表现，但仍需警惕高波动风险。水资源稀缺成为全球重要风险，人口增长、气候问题加剧供需矛盾，农业、制造 业受显著影响，水务基建、节水科技、循环用水相关领域迎来投资机遇。 资产配置上，股票市场需精选标的，美国科技股受人工智能驱动但估值高企，欧元区盈利预期偏乐观，日本企业 ...

Group 1 - Alphabet Inc. has initiated a new round of bond issuance to meet the substantial funding needs of its artificial intelligence business, successfully issuing $20 billion in multi-term bonds this week [1] - The company has established a liquid yield curve across major currencies, enhancing the attractiveness of its bonds to investors and potentially lowering financing costs [1] - S&P Global Ratings has assigned Alphabet an AA+ rating, supported by over $125 billion in cash reserves on its balance sheet [1] Group 2 - The issuance of a £1 billion (approximately $1.4 billion) century bond by Alphabet is a strong market signal, as only a few entities have previously issued such long-term bonds [2] - The bond's issuance rate is 120 basis points higher than the longest-dated UK government bond, with a yield slightly above 6% and a subscription demand nearing £10 billion [2] - The primary underwriters will allocate most of the bonds to long-term holders, indicating that secondary market trading may not be very active [2] Group 3 - Austria has issued ultra-long bonds in the past, but its pricing logic differs significantly from Alphabet's, as Austria's bonds have suffered due to rising interest rates [3] - Alphabet's century bond has a coupon rate more than six times higher than Austria's, allowing it to cover principal through compounding effects within 17 years [3] - Potential buyers of such bonds may include reinsurance companies or fixed-income pension funds, which could improve capital allocation under EU solvency regulations [3] Group 4 - Alphabet is expected to return to the bond market for financing, as at least half of its annual revenue of approximately $340 billion may be allocated to AI-related capital expenditures [4] - The company is viewed as a highly creditworthy issuer with clear growth plans and expected investment returns that significantly exceed debt costs, making it an attractive option for investors [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "Black Swan" events, which are unpredictable and have a significant impact, highlighting the importance of recognizing and preparing for such occurrences in financial markets [8][29] - Nassim Nicholas Taleb's investment philosophy emphasizes the need to embrace uncertainty and volatility, advocating for strategies that benefit from chaos rather than avoiding it [21][41] - The narrative illustrates Taleb's personal journey from experiencing the Lebanese Civil War to achieving financial freedom through strategic investments in deep out-of-the-money put options during market crashes [4][24] Group 1: Taleb's Background and Philosophy - Taleb was born into an elite family in Lebanon, where he experienced the abrupt end of stability due to the civil war, shaping his understanding of risk and uncertainty [4][25] - His fascination with options trading stems from their asymmetric risk-reward profile, where buyers face limited losses but can achieve disproportionate gains [5][26] - The success of his strategy during the 1987 market crash validated his framework for understanding financial unpredictability [6][27] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Taleb's investment approach includes identifying "Black Swan" events and developing a "barbell strategy," allocating 85%-90% of resources to safe assets and 10%-15% to high-risk opportunities [10][30] - The strategy aims to create favorable asymmetry, where downside risk is limited while upside potential is significant [30] - Taleb emphasizes the principle of "Skin in the Game," advocating for accountability in decision-making, which enhances the credibility of financial advice [31] Group 3: Practical Applications and Challenges - The article describes the operations of Empirica Capital, a hedge fund co-founded by Taleb, which employs his philosophy by consistently buying cheap deep out-of-the-money options as insurance against market crashes [12][33] - The fund's strategy often results in short-term losses, referred to as "bleeding," which tests the patience of investors [34] - The eventual payoff from this strategy was exemplified during the COVID-19 market crash, where Empirica achieved significant returns after a prolonged period of underperformance [35] Group 4: Broader Implications - Taleb's insights extend beyond finance, suggesting that individuals and organizations should cultivate resilience and adaptability in the face of uncertainty [21][42] - His philosophy encourages a mindset shift from seeking certainty to leveraging volatility for growth and opportunity [41][42] - The article concludes that understanding and preparing for unpredictable events is crucial for both personal and institutional investors in today's uncertain environment [21][41]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in the media sector driven by the launch of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, an AI video generation tool that has revitalized investor interest in AI applications and the media industry [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The media sector has been leading the market, with film ETFs, game ETFs, and media ETFs showing significant gains, particularly two film ETFs that rose over 9% [1][2][4] - Over the past five days, the film ETFs have seen an increase of over 16%, indicating strong market momentum in AI-related applications [4][15] Group 2: Seedance 2.0 Impact - Seedance 2.0, launched on February 7, supports multi-modal inputs and generates short videos with high production quality, marking a significant advancement in content creation technology [3][13] - The tool has received high praise from industry leaders, with claims that it could revolutionize video production and enhance the quality of animated content [3][16] Group 3: Investment Trends - Investors are showing a split in strategy regarding which assets to hold during the upcoming holiday, with some favoring traditional holdings while others are drawn to the recent AI-driven market trends [2][6] - There is a growing expectation that the upcoming Spring Festival will serve as a catalyst for AI applications, potentially leading to a shift in market focus towards AI-related investments [6][17] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the introduction of Seedance may lead to a broader trend in AI applications becoming a central theme for investment funds, although caution is advised due to rapid price increases in certain ETFs [17][19] - The market is anticipated to transition towards a "barbell strategy" combining dividend stocks and micro-cap investments, which could provide a balanced approach to navigating market volatility [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market has entered its second phase, focusing on the valuation recovery of undervalued assets after a year-long market rally [1] Market Analysis - There is a strong demand for market rebalancing from a quarterly to a semi-annual perspective, indicating a shift towards undervalued assets [1] - Many sectors have completed their valuation uplift, and truly cheap assets are limited, suggesting a transition to the valuation recovery phase for undervalued segments [1] Investment Strategy - The fundamental performance is not the primary driver of the current market rally; instead, global macro narratives and technological advancements are leading the way [1] - The company suggests a barbell strategy for investment: one end focuses on traditional quality leaders with low valuations and high cost-performance ratios, while the other end targets the entire tech chain represented by AI [1] - The horizontal part of the barbell strategy includes consumer and cyclical assets [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is expected to gradually stabilize, which may lead to a recovery in valuations for the home appliance industry. Current stock prices may have fully reflected short-term risks due to factors such as demand being pulled forward by national subsidies, upstream price increases, and currency appreciation [3][4] - The core pressure on domestic demand is likely to ease as signs of stabilization in the real estate market emerge. After a deep correction from 2022 to 2025, domestic housing inventory is gradually being reduced, with recent increases in second-hand housing transaction volumes in Shanghai and narrowing price declines in first-tier cities [4][8] - The leading companies in the white goods sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with projected P/E ratios for 2026 being 12 for Midea Group, 7 for Gree Electric Appliances, and 10 for Haier Smart Home. If the real estate market stabilizes, these companies may see a valuation recovery [14] Summary by Sections 1. Signs of Stabilization in Real Estate - Signs of stabilization in the real estate market are emerging, with domestic housing inventory gradually decreasing and recent increases in second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai. The drag effect of real estate on domestic demand is expected to gradually diminish [4][8] 2. Company Performance Forecasts - Ninebot Company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.67-1.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.0%-70.6%. However, Q4 2025 may see a net loss of 120 million yuan to a profit of 60 million yuan due to factors like exchange losses [5][16] - Huabao New Energy is projected to have a net profit of 15.5-23 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 90.4%-93.5%, with Q4 2025 expected to incur a net loss of 120-130 million yuan [5][16] - Ecovacs is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.9%-123.3%, with Q4 2025 projected to yield a net profit of 280-380 million yuan [5][16] 3. Market Review - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.3% from February 2 to February 6, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.6 percentage points. The white goods segment increased by 1.7%, while black goods decreased by 1.9% [17][19] 4. Key Data Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the RMB appreciated by 88 basis points against the USD, continuing its upward trend. This short-term fluctuation is not expected to affect the core competitiveness of export companies [21] - The LME copper spot price was $12,840 per ton, down 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in raw material prices [21][22]