一、2026年的机会和挑战 如果说2025年是全球流动性宽松预期的"抢跑期"，那么2026年或许将进入政策落地的"验证期"。 当前，全球宏观环境正处于一个微妙的"错位期"： 一方面，美联储的降息周期进入后半程，市场博弈的焦点从"降不降"转向了"降多少"和"何时停"； 另一方面，日本央行开启了加息进程。全球货币政策的非同步性，叠加地缘政治的不确定性，使得2026年的投资环境更加复杂。 具体来看，美债方面，市场普遍预计美联储明年还有50个基点左右的降息空间，因此明年短端美债收益率或跟随政策利率逐步下行。 回顾刚刚过去的2025年，全球资本市场交出了一份颇为亮眼的"成绩单"，主要大类资产多点开花，全球股市呈现普涨格局，美元债整体走强，黄金更是跑出 了近46年的最佳表现。 数据来源：Wind，统计区间为2025.01.01-2025.12.31，指数过往业绩不代表未来表现，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 这一年的市场表现，很大程度上受益于全球主要央行货币政策趋于宽松和流动性预期的改善。但站在2026年的起跑线上，面对2026年更复杂的宏观环境，全 球资产配置又该如何落子？ 这里我就不得不提一个在投资圈非常著名的理念——"全 ...

画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 然而，即使天才如斯，利弗莫尔依然在晚年输掉了大部分资产。 反观如今76岁的达利欧，却仍在跌宕起伏的市场中穿越周期、稳步前行。 你听说过《股票作手回忆录》吗？ 这位交易大佬的天赋和能力可谓登峰造极， 普通人一生能抓住一次暴富机会都是极其罕见的，利弗莫尔却能暴富四次。 这本书的主人公，就是令华尔街闻风丧胆的传奇交易员——杰西·利弗莫尔。 他一生四次暴富、四次破产，最终饮弹自尽。 为什么会这样呢？ 二者之间，差别在哪？ 先卖个关子。 我们绝大部分人和利弗莫尔一样有个共性， 一生都在 花费大量精力 ， 寻找"下一个暴富 产品 "。 有些朋友今年的私募交易，一定是这样的： 年初，入手去年表现最强的宏观对冲策略。 年中，又因羡慕量化策略的强势表现，在8月匆忙调仓一只龙头量化。 两次操作，都买在了"山顶"。 因为在买产品时，我们最容易纠结于产品够不够好，却忽略了 这个产品究竟是不是我们真正需要的。 其实， 在私募投资中，有一件事 比选产品更重要，那就是—— 找到适合你自己的资产配置。 配置思路 定好后 ，哪 ...

以下文章来源于领航配置 ，作者莱卡 01 Beta1.0 最简单的资产分散 先问一个问题，宏观策略的Beta到底是什么？ 股票策略的Beta很容易理解，沪深300、中证500等等，但是宏观策略的Beta呢？它不是某个单一指数，而是横跨股债商等多类资产的配置组合，更 关键的是，这个组合的构建本身就牵扯到许多问题，配多少股票？要不要择时？权重如何调整？ 别急，我们一步步来。我们暂且将宏观策略的Beta定义为， 一个不需要择时、不需要预测的，大类资产分散配置组合 。 领航配置 . 应对 > 预测，帮认可分散配置理念的私募投资者做好资产配置。 当你打开一个宏观策略产品的持仓报告，可能会感到眼花缭乱，股票、债券、商品，可能还有各种衍生品和海外资产，这和股票基金完全不同。宏 观策略是不是就是一个大杂烩？搞这么复杂，它到底赚的是什么钱？ 为了真正地理解宏观策略，今天我们不想像教科书那样照本宣科，把一堆理论概念全部抛给你，而是尝试用一个公式来展开这一切： 宏观策略收益 = 系统红利 + 交易能力 。其中的系统红利即Beta，交易能力即Alpha。本篇文章先来尝试讲透宏观策略的Beta到底是什么，下一篇文章来讲透Alpha 又 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complementary nature of free cash flow and low-volatility dividend strategies, suggesting a 1:1 allocation between the two for a balanced investment approach [1] - It highlights the potential for a "lazy" investment strategy by regularly rebalancing a portfolio consisting of ETFs focused on free cash flow and low-volatility dividends, along with the Nasdaq index [1] - The article mentions the importance of cash flow generation from investments, emphasizing that a combination of free cash flow and low-volatility dividends can provide a steady income stream [7] Group 2 - There is a debate on the effectiveness of rebalancing strategies, with some arguing that they may expose investors to extreme risks, as illustrated by a hypothetical scenario involving the Soviet Union's market [6][8] - The article suggests that a simple allocation strategy without frequent rebalancing may be more beneficial, allowing investors to avoid potential pitfalls associated with market volatility [6] - It also raises concerns about the complexity introduced by adding more asset classes, which could dilute the cash flow benefits of a simpler investment strategy [7][10]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 李蓓个人公众号 今天早上虎嗅发布了《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文，对于文中观点，半夏投资创始人李蓓迅速给出了回应。在影响力上，李蓓的势能依然强大，半 夏投资公众号发文三个小时后，流量已经接近10W+，转发量更是超过6000。私募圈顶流实至名归。 李蓓在文中提到，"里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。" 这里需要解释一下，私募领域有特殊性，信息披露较少，外界很难像公募一样准确跟踪其具体持仓情况，因此《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文中对于 半夏产品持仓的描述，基本来自公开报道。以2023年的纯碱与玻璃期货为例，当时外界对于李蓓可能做多纯碱和玻璃期货有较多讨论，而李蓓 当时在回应中并未明确肯定或者否定。 文章提到了李蓓曾经辉煌的业绩，以及宏观对冲策略的较高难度，整体来说是比较客观公允的，正如李蓓总提到，"作者还是想尽量客观一点 的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶意看空我。" 就着文中的观点，李蓓对于当前市场上财富管理与资产配置存在的风险，提出了自己的判断，比较有见地，也在市场上引起一些新的讨论，值得 探究。 当大量资金 ...

来源：半夏投资 最近一年其实我的出镜率和发声率并不高，公众号一共只发了6篇文章，平均2个月才一篇。 上个月末参加了两个会议，讲了些市场观点，整理了一篇文章，没想到引发了一场经久不衰的大讨论。 我现在刷视频，每刷个十来条，就会刷到一条我自己，要么是转载我，要么是引用我，要么是评论我。 公众号文章写我的也不少，有才华的群众甚至还出了几个漫画，其中流量最高的一条是虎嗅的这篇。 里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。 但是我也能看出，虽然总体基调偏负面，但作者还是想尽量客观一点的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶 意看空我。 最后，关于是否应该投资我，他写了这么一段： 半夏的产品，还值得投资吗？ 李蓓在择时与多资产运用上相对还是有一定功力的，其宏观对冲策略在大类资产趋势明确且低相关的行 情中，以及在经济周期明显切换的阶段，有望通过多资产的布局，以及衍生工具的操作，来把握机会。 在当下，集中体现在宏观经济转暖、传统周期顺利接棒科技成长，那时李蓓可能会有更突出表现。如果 仍是科技成长风格主导，李蓓仍然会比较被动。 目前PPI仍在负增长，没有回归正增长的迹象，科技赛道倒是依旧如火如荼 ...

资产配置 | 策略报告 当低利率邂逅风偏回归，资产配置被动为 盾，主动为矛 ——2026 年多资产配置展望 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 021-63326320 | | --- | | 交易平稳，预期主导：——资产配置月报 | 2025-12-03 | | --- | --- | | 202512 | | | 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转 | 2025-12-03 | | 向：——资产配置模型月报 202512 | | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月 ...

Core Insights - Asset allocation is not just about risk diversification; predicting returns is equally important. The report emphasizes that the significance of asset allocation lies in systematically designing strategies that allow investors to leverage their predictive abilities, enabling those with a 60% win rate to outperform those with a 40% win rate [5][8] - The allocation approach can be categorized into passive and active types. Passive strategies focus on risk diversification, while active strategies, such as Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO) and Black-Litterman (B-L), aim to enhance returns while considering risk [5][8] - Active asset allocation's core is return prediction and risk penalty, where risk is defined as "uncertainty." For professional investors, asset volatility is not risk if they can predict it; thus, true risk stems from inadequate predictive ability [5][11] MVO Model Application - The MVO model is suitable for active asset allocation, with its derivatives like the B-L model incorporating subjective views on returns. However, the model is sensitive to input variables, which can lead to concentrated positions in a few asset classes [9][10] - The MVO model requires high accuracy in return predictions, which is both a limitation and a value. It allows investors with a predictive edge to construct effective asset allocation strategies [10][29] Active Asset Allocation Scenarios - Active asset allocation can be applied in two scenarios: directly obtaining allocation schemes or enhancing passive allocations with active strategies. The latter involves using passive models to establish a base and then applying active strategies to enhance returns on assets where predictive capabilities exist [36][43] ETF-Based Active Asset Allocation - The report discusses an ETF-based active asset allocation strategy, replacing traditional indices with investable ETFs. This includes using an industry rotation strategy for equities and bond ETFs to replicate mixed bond fund indices [49][51] - The active ETF allocation strategy can be categorized into two types: one directly based on MVO and the other combining a passive strategy with MVO enhancements [59][60]

Core Insights - EQT is significantly betting on the Asian market, viewing it as a core growth engine, particularly focusing on early-stage innovative companies and demand-driven industries in China [1][2] - The company's strategy in Asia emphasizes domestic markets over cross-border trade, investing in sectors like services, software, education, and financial services to mitigate geopolitical risks [1][3] - EQT's investment decisions and outcomes are largely independent of monetary cycles, with a focus on value creation despite high interest rates [4][5] Summary by Sections Asian Market Strategy - EQT sees more interesting opportunities in China through early-stage strategies, capitalizing on innovation and substantial growth potential [2] - The company’s Asian strategy reflects a broader trend in the global private equity industry, with more investors seeking diversification in Asia [3] Investment Focus - EQT raised over $10 billion for its BPEA private equity fund IX, targeting a total size of $12.5 billion, and plans to invest approximately $930 million in South Korean software provider Douzone Bizon [3] - The company emphasizes investments in domestic demand-related businesses, which are less affected by geopolitical tensions [3] Market Efficiency and Local Operations - The Asian market is perceived as more inefficient compared to the U.S. and Europe, providing "structural alpha opportunities" for investors [3] - EQT has 350 employees in Asia, highlighting the importance of localized operations for deal sourcing, talent recruitment, and exit strategies [3] Independence from Interest Rates - EQT's investment logic is not reliant on interest rate cycles, with the CEO stating that the company does not expect rates to decline [5] - The acquisition of Nord Anglia Education, valued at $14.5 billion, exemplifies EQT's strategy of investing in sectors with inherent value creation potential, regardless of the interest rate environment [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the insights shared by Qian Cheng, chairman of Shanghai Kuan Investment Asset Management Co., during an investment forum, focusing on his experience in quantitative trading and market analysis [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Qian Cheng emphasizes the importance of an all-weather strategy, originally developed by Bridgewater Associates, which involves diversifying investments across low-correlation assets such as stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities to achieve stable long-term returns [1] - The strategy is increasingly adopted by major asset management institutions both domestically and internationally [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Qian notes the inverse volatility relationship between the CSI 300 Index and treasury futures, suggesting that incorporating commodities and gold can enhance the risk-adjusted performance of investment portfolios [1] - He believes that the commodity market is poised for cyclical opportunities in the near future [1] Group 3: Trading Philosophy - The trading philosophy advocated by Qian includes focusing on key sectors during bull markets and decisively taking profits at market peaks to avoid over-reliance on quantitative logic [1] - Asset management firms should prioritize absolute returns and invest in research and strategy optimization to create long-term value for clients [1] - Qian stresses the necessity of maintaining risk control and trend judgment to sustain a competitive edge in the industry amid market fluctuations [1]