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铜:市场避险,价格承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure due to market risk aversion [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,230 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 99,300 with a decrease of 1.28%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,797 with a decrease of 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 335,565, a decrease of 128,098 from the previous day, and the open interest was 634,562, an increase of 7,401. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 27,891, an increase of 7,244, and the open interest was 326,000, a decrease of 589 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 148,193, a decrease of 4,462, and the inventory of LME copper was 156,300, an increase of 8,875. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 30.58%, a decrease of 2.35% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium was 67.55, an increase of 6.03 from the previous day. The premium of bonded - area warehouse receipts was 26, a decrease of 2. The premium of bonded - area bills of lading was 25, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 89,300, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: There was a sell - off of Japanese long - term bonds, and the "Truss moment" was encountered. Coupled with the Greenland crisis, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and there was a "sell - US" trade in the market. The Japanese finance minister called on the market to calm down, stating that the government's budget dependence on debt was decreasing and planning to invest over $330 billion in AI and chips [1] - **Industry News**: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile owned by Capstone Copper condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,704,298.42 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.32%. Refined copper imports were 298,027.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.00% [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]