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2025年12月东北固收行业轮动策略:外部扰动缓和,内部回归均衡化策略
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 03:13
Core Insights - The report suggests a shift towards a balanced strategy in response to external disturbances and internal market conditions, emphasizing the importance of equilibrium in investment approaches [2][4][29] - Four industries identified as having "low position + marginal improvement" potential, which are expected to benefit from low valuations and improving economic conditions [2][4] Industry Recommendations - **Low Position Recovery (Dynamic)**: The recommended sectors include Beauty Care, Transportation, Other Power Equipment, Semiconductors, Automotive, Bioproducts, Traditional Chinese Medicine, and Home Appliances [4][6] - **Low Position + Marginal Improvement (Dynamic)**: The sectors highlighted are Beauty Care, Transportation, Other Power Equipment, and Semiconductors [4][6] Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments in November due to three main factors: 1. Federal Reserve liquidity expectations were disrupted by the U.S. government shutdown, leading to market uncertainty regarding the December interest rate meeting [4] 2. The intensifying debate over AI narratives and technical corrections in high-performing stocks, particularly in the AI sector, caused a decline in market sentiment [4] 3. A rebalancing of market styles, with funds shifting from high-volatility growth stocks to low-valuation, high-dividend sectors, resulting in a rise in bank and oil sectors [4] Sector-Specific Insights - **Beauty Care**: The sector is expected to see a revival in new consumption themes towards the end of the year, with a 17.95% year-on-year increase in retail sales for cosmetics [6][10] - **Transportation**: Valuations are low, and improved U.S.-China relations are anticipated to boost export demand, leading to a recovery in shipping [6][10] - **Other Power Equipment**: Increased investments in power grid and supply equipment due to AI-related electricity shortages are expected [4][6] - **Semiconductors**: Continuous demand for AI computing power and a chip shortage in the automotive sector are driving a super cycle in storage [4][6] Economic Indicators - The report provides detailed indicators for the identified sectors, showing positive trends in various metrics such as retail sales, average prices, and investment levels [6][10][22]