Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of AI in asset allocation, enhancing the predictive capabilities of stock and bond performance through a dynamic weighting system [2][3] - The AI-driven model has successfully predicted market trends, including the recent performance of value stocks outperforming growth stocks in March and April [3] - Predictions for 2025 indicate that bond assets will maintain relative advantages, while stock market performance is expected to stabilize at the bottom in Q3 and slightly recover in Q4 [3] Asset Allocation Framework - The AI-enabled research system combines five major cycles to predict stock and bond performance, with a current high weighting of 55% on the monetary credit framework [2][3] - The allocation for domestic assets in July shows: 12.64% in equities, 3.58% in dividends, 76.45% in bonds, and 7.33% in gold, with adjustments compared to traditional risk parity models [4] - For overseas markets, the allocation includes: France 15.62%, Germany 14.85%, the US 20.24%, Japan 16.44%, Hong Kong 11.50%, and India 22.35%, with slight adjustments in France, Germany, and Hong Kong [4] Industry Rotation Strategy - The AI-driven industry rotation strategy has significantly improved performance metrics, achieving a 420% increase in the Sharpe ratio and a 41% reduction in maximum drawdown compared to traditional strategies [5] - The latest industry outlook for Q3 suggests overweight positions in machinery, comprehensive sectors, and electronics, while maintaining standard positions in automotive, communication, and construction, and underweighting banking and retail [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of AI into asset allocation strategies, enhancing the predictive capabilities of stock and bond performance through a dynamic weighting system [2][3] - The current monetary credit framework has a high weight of 65%, indicating a favorable environment for bond markets while stock market performance is expected to converge marginally [3] - Predictions for 2025 suggest that bonds will outperform stocks, with stock market performance expected to bottom out in Q3 and show slight recovery in Q4 [3] Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Investment Research - The AI-enabled investment research system developed by Guosen integrates five major cyclical frameworks, allowing for dynamic weighting and back-testing to predict stock and bond performance for the month and year [2] - AI learns from Guosen's historical asset allocation frameworks and adjusts predictions based on macroeconomic policies and market sentiment [3] Market Predictions - The report confirms that the prediction made last month, stating "value will outperform growth in March-April," has been realized [3] - The updated forecast indicates that the bond market will continue to show relative strength throughout the year, while the stock market is expected to experience a delayed recovery due to global economic disturbances [3] Asset Allocation Frameworks - The report outlines various frameworks for asset allocation, including the Merrill Lynch clock framework, cyclical overlay framework, monetary credit framework, credit inventory framework, and policy combination framework, each with specific indicators and current stages [10] - The current stage of the monetary credit framework indicates tight monetary policy and loose credit, suggesting a bearish outlook for stocks and a bullish outlook for bonds [10]