金融专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 寿险产品不仅是保险合同，更是价值观念的传递，需不断扩展业务范围 以满足客户多样化需求。寿险公司通过并购扩大市场份额、获取客户资 源并提升产品多样性，优化资产负债表，提高资本回报率，实现规模经 济效应。 寿险与财险在承保标的和风险管理上存在显著区别。财险承保物体，风 险评估相对简单；寿险承保人的生命，涉及复杂的人口统计和精算模型， 存在利率风险。寿险销售更侧重于价值观念的传递，而非简单的产品定 价。 保险公司定价逻辑基于成本加成法，包括死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成 本。精算师通过分析历史数据预测未来现金流，并根据预定利率贴现计 算保单现值，死差、费差和利差是定价的关键因素。 中国保险行业经历了三波发展：2013 年重疾险驱动，2015 年代理人考 试取消推动，2020 年后惠民保冲击。惠民保以低成本满足大众需求， 对传统重疾险市场造成冲击，新业务价值断崖式下降。 Q&A 保险公司的定价逻辑主要基于成本加成法。具体来说，一张保单包括三项主要 成本：死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成本（即投资收益率）。在此基础上，公司 会对死亡率、费用和利率进行加成，从而确定最终价格。这就是所谓的 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 1/7 一个数学家提出的股票问题 每当有人问我应该集中持仓还是分散投资时，我都会让他们做一道简单的算术题，我认为，把投资的过程量化，更容易理解钱是如何赚到或亏掉 的。 这道题收录在数学家约翰·保罗士写的《一个数学家玩转股票市场》一书中：如果给你提供一些股票，这些股票每周有一半可能性上涨80%，一半 可能性下跌60%，你觉得这些股票能不能投资？ 你一定会想，上涨赚8万，下跌亏6万，而且概率对半，这事当然可以干！ 没错，你这么算就是所谓"正期望值"，那么，给你10万块本金，10周的时间，你怎么投资呢？ 你想了一想说，既然赔率这么明确了，索性简单点，一把梭，每周全仓买一个股票，十周下来，赚亏的次数应该差不多，收益就出来了。 好的，就按你说的投资，10万元每周全仓持有一支，10周后，假设其中5周上涨80%，5周下跌60%，你可以得到多少钱？ 计算过程很简单：1 ...

专题报告-金融工程 风险中性定价原理（risk-neutralvaluation）Equation Chapter 1 Section 1[Table_Title] 商品指数研究（四）：全天候资产配 置期货指数 ★主要内容 Dalio 提出的全天候策略在国内的成功复制经验，使得越来越多 的投资者开始重视风险均衡的投资理念。本文我们提出一个基 准版的纯多头的期货型资产配置指数，目的是通过期货标的来 实现一个"经典版"的规则透明、计算简单，可快速介入、可 完全复制的纯粹的风险平价资产配置方案。本文以基于资产的 角度实现期货版的多资产 Risk Parity，因此方法论并非讨论重 点，更重要的是如何进行资产的选择。 金 融 工 程 首先，我们讨论单品种期货标的（股指、国债和黄金）的期货 投资与现货投资的差异，我们仅考虑单一标的的品种作为大类 资产，并不考虑资产内部的选择或轮动。其次，重点讨论复制 现有的宽基商品指数与商品 ETF 的情况，在这些指数的底层核 心品种池上重新构建一个自定义逻辑的商品指数（主要是参考 流动性、等权或风险平价分配权重），以及构建相关的商品因 子指数。最后，讨论基于资产维度构建的大类风险平价 ...

Core Insights - The event "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of multi-asset investment strategies in the current economic environment [1][8]. Group 1: Market Opportunities and Asset Allocation - The current market presents a mixed picture; while the attractiveness of equities may be declining compared to last year, they still offer better value compared to low-risk returns below 2% [3][18]. - The discussion emphasized the significance of multi-asset allocation, particularly in a low inflation environment, with equities, bonds, and commodities being the most favorable asset classes [4][23]. - The concept of risk parity was highlighted as a crucial strategy for achieving stable returns while managing volatility, especially in the context of China's capital market [10][23]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Perspectives - The panelists discussed the importance of absolute return strategies, particularly for institutional investors like university endowments, which require stable and consistent returns [6][30]. - There is a growing recognition that value and growth stocks can coexist, with some stocks fitting into both categories, suggesting a more integrated approach to stock selection [4][20]. - The need for strategic asset allocation was emphasized, with a focus on risk budgeting and the importance of diversifying across low-correlated assets to enhance overall portfolio performance [12][23]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The panelists expressed concerns about potential market overheating, particularly in sectors that have seen rapid price increases, indicating a cautious approach to current market conditions [19][26]. - The discussion also touched on the unique characteristics of university endowment funds, which typically have longer investment horizons and lower risk appetites compared to other funds [27][30]. - The role of ESG factors in investment decisions was highlighted, with a consensus that while ESG may not significantly enhance returns, it contributes to risk management and stability [28][30].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 21 日 穿越波动周期的投资罗盘 ——招商证券大类资产配置系列指数投资价值分析 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 江雨航 S1090525070014 jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商证券全球大类资产配置策略指数（GARRI）、招商证券境内大类资产配置 策略指数 2.0（CARRI2）是由招商证券开发设计的量化策略指数，通过动量趋 势跟踪方法对在全球范围或中国境内的权益、债券和商品类的资产进行轮动配 置，通过风险平价、波动率控制以及逐日盯市进行止盈止损的方法来控制投资组 合整体的波动水平，提供长期稳健的资产配置方案。 指数资产池：涵盖股票指数、国债期货及现货、贵金属期货和商品期货四类资 产。全球配置 GARRI 指数包括沪深 300、中证 500、纳斯达克 100、标普 500 ...

Core Insights - The public FOF (Fund of Funds) industry in China has experienced significant growth in 2023, with a notable increase in scale and popularity among investors, particularly in the context of a rising equity market [1][2][4] - The Huazhong Yingrui Stable Preferred 6-Month Holding Period FOF has emerged as a standout product, benefiting from a multi-asset allocation strategy that has led to substantial growth in its scale [1][7][11] - The evolution of the FOF industry reflects a shift from single-asset focus to multi-asset strategies, allowing for better risk management and enhanced returns [6][11] Industry Development - The FOF industry in China has gone through cycles of growth and decline since its inception in 2017, with a significant boom in 2021 driven by regulatory changes and a shift away from guaranteed bank products [2][4] - After a period of underperformance, fund companies have focused on optimizing investment portfolios and innovating product designs to meet diverse investor needs [2][3] - The demand for stable investment options has increased, leading to a resurgence in the popularity of multi-asset FOF products [3][4] Product Strategy - The Huazhong Yingrui Stable Preferred FOF employs a risk parity model to balance the risk contributions of various asset classes, aiming for stable performance [7][11] - The product has undergone significant upgrades, expanding its asset classes and incorporating new strategies to enhance yield and adaptability in different market conditions [8][9][10] - The diversification of assets, including international equities and commodities, allows the FOF to seek incremental returns while managing risks effectively [9][10] Team and Expertise - The success of the Huazhong Yingrui FOF is attributed to the experienced team at Huazhong Fund, which emphasizes a systematic approach to asset management and continuous evolution of investment strategies [10][11] - The fund manager, Lu Jingchang, has extensive experience in the industry, contributing to the product's robust performance through strategic asset allocation and risk management [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Ray Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail," which explores the long-term debt cycle and its implications for the U.S. economy, emphasizing the historical patterns of debt accumulation and the eventual consequences of unsustainable debt levels [9][20][196]. Group 1: Economic Machine Operation - The economic machine can be divided into five macroeconomic sectors: households, businesses, government, finance, and overseas sectors [22][23]. - The private sector, comprising households and businesses, is the main wealth creator, with employment and customer relationships being key dynamics [26][30]. - The wealth distribution structure in the U.S. is highlighted, with 1% of the population holding significant wealth, while the bottom 50% are primarily in debt [41][44]. Group 2: Government and Debt - The government acts as the economic manager, with tax revenue being a crucial source of government credit [56][58]. - The U.S. government has a history of budget deficits, with expenditures exceeding revenues, leading to a national debt exceeding $36 trillion [70][72]. - The government often rolls over debt, creating a cycle of borrowing to pay off existing debt, which raises concerns about the sustainability of this approach [73][75]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Cycle - Dalio identifies an 80-year long-term debt cycle, where each cycle leads to significant debt accumulation and eventual crises [197]. - The short-term debt cycle typically lasts around 6 years, with the current cycle starting in 2020 and nearing completion [193][194]. - The article emphasizes that during the later stages of the long-term debt cycle, the government may resort to debt monetization, leading to currency devaluation as a means to manage debt [205][206]. Group 4: Economic Participants and Behavior - The main participants in the economic machine include borrowers, lenders, banks, central governments, and central banks, each with distinct motivations and behaviors [127][131]. - The article discusses the nature of debt and credit, highlighting that debt represents a promise to pay in the future, while credit is a commitment to repay borrowed funds [140][145]. - The relationship between debt and money supply is explored, indicating that increases in debt often correlate with economic fluctuations and purchasing power changes [155][181]. Group 5: Implications for Investment - The article suggests that understanding the dynamics of the economic machine and the long-term debt cycle can provide insights into potential investment opportunities and risks [20][196]. - The current state of the U.S. economy, characterized by high government debt and pressures on fiscal sustainability, may influence market behavior and investment strategies [119][225]. - The historical patterns of debt crises and government responses can serve as a framework for anticipating future economic developments and investment landscapes [124][205].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the All Weather Strategy developed by Bridgewater, emphasizing its robust performance and ability to withstand market fluctuations through a risk parity approach. The strategy has been made available in a more transparent ETF format in collaboration with State Street, with a current scale of approximately $204 million as of the end of May 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: All Weather Strategy Overview - The All Weather Strategy aims to diversify risk across various asset classes to mitigate impacts from different market environments, with a notable focus on risk parity principles [4][11]. - The asset allocation of the All Weather ETF as of March 2023 includes 76% nominal government bonds, 42% equities, and 39% commodities, with specific allocations to U.S. bonds (33%), U.K. bonds (9%), and gold (14%) [1][4]. - The ETF experienced significant volatility shortly after its launch, with a maximum drawdown of 8.78% in April 2023, but managed to recover to its initial value by the end of May [2][4]. Group 2: Risk Parity and Scenario Parity - The article introduces the concept of "Scenario Parity," which involves constructing asset baskets based on different macroeconomic scenarios (e.g., economic growth, inflation) and allocating them according to risk parity principles [11][12]. - The macro scenarios identified include: - Economic growth: equities and commodities - Economic downturn: nominal bonds, inflation-protected bonds, and gold - Rising inflation: commodities and inflation-protected bonds - Moderate inflation or deflation: nominal bonds and equities [11][12]. - Historical performance data indicates that the Scenario Parity approach yields higher annualized returns compared to traditional risk parity strategies, with a notable increase in performance during volatile market conditions [16][18]. Group 3: Macro Sensitivity and Internal Equity Practices - The article discusses the application of macro sensitivity analysis to construct equity portfolios that align with the All Weather Strategy, focusing on the sensitivity of different sectors to macroeconomic variables [22][41]. - The analysis identifies sectors with the highest and lowest sensitivity to economic conditions, liquidity, inflation, and credit, allowing for more informed asset allocation decisions [23][41]. - The performance of equity portfolios constructed using the Scenario Parity approach demonstrates superior returns and lower drawdowns compared to traditional risk parity and equal-weighted strategies, particularly in volatile market environments [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the recent bull market and the missed opportunities for many investors, emphasizing the importance of finding a suitable investment strategy that aligns with personal values and understanding [4][14][18]. Market Overview - The A-share market has recently surpassed 3700 points, reaching a nearly 10-year high and marking a historic market capitalization of over 100 trillion [4]. - The current bull market is characterized as a structural and rotational bull market, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and technology taking turns in leading the gains [7][15]. Investor Behavior - Many investors are experiencing anxiety from missing out on the bull market due to various reasons: - Not entering the market during the bull phase [5]. - Choosing the wrong stocks, leading to missed profits [8]. - Waiting for a market correction that never comes, resulting in missed entry points [9]. - Exiting positions too early, thus not benefiting from the bull market returns [10][11]. - The article notes that the feeling of missing out can be more distressing than actual losses [12]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that opportunities in the market are abundant, and investors should focus on finding a strategy that allows them to capitalize on future bull markets [14][18]. - It emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a comprehensive investment strategy that aligns with personal values, reducing anxiety and improving decision-making [24][26]. - The author mentions a three-part asset allocation strategy that has yielded a cumulative return of 12.48% year-to-date [22]. Asset Allocation Benefits - Asset allocation is presented as a way to mitigate risks associated with market timing and to ensure consistent returns regardless of market conditions [28][30]. - The strategy allows for rebalancing between different asset classes, which can help in achieving better risk-adjusted returns [28][32]. - The article concludes that a well-structured investment approach can lead to comfortable and sustainable profits, reducing the stress associated with market fluctuations [33].

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, aged 75, has officially retired from Bridgewater Associates, marking the end of an era that lasted for half a century [2] - Dalio started investing at the age of 12 and founded Bridgewater at 26, which has grown to manage over $160 billion, making it the largest hedge fund globally [3] - The All Weather strategy, a well-known asset allocation approach, was developed after Dalio's significant loss during the stagflation period of the late 1970s and early 1980s [4][5] Group 2 - The All Weather strategy is based on risk parity, which aims to balance risk across various asset classes rather than merely diversifying funds [6] - The strategy involves three steps: analyzing economic environments, allocating different assets for each economic scenario, and implementing risk parity [7][8][9] Group 3 - The strategy categorizes economic conditions into four basic "seasons": economic growth exceeding expectations, economic growth below expectations, inflation exceeding expectations, and inflation below expectations [8] - Each economic scenario has corresponding asset classes that perform well, such as stocks and commodities during economic growth, and long-term government bonds during economic downturns [9] Group 4 - The implementation of risk parity involves quantifying asset performance under different economic conditions to ensure equal risk contribution from each asset in the portfolio [10][11] - The All Weather strategy has shown resilience but is not infallible, as evidenced by significant downturns during extreme market conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 market environment [14][15] Group 5 - Bridgewater has successfully localized its strategies in China, becoming the first foreign private equity firm to manage over 10 billion RMB in the country [17] - The performance of Bridgewater's products has been strong, with a flagship product launched in July 2022 achieving an 18.55% return and a cumulative increase of 76.61% by July 2023 [19] Group 6 - In 2023, despite a challenging A-share market, Bridgewater's private equity products recorded around 8.8% returns, with some products projected to achieve approximately 35% annual performance in 2024 [20] - By the end of 2024, Bridgewater's management scale in China is expected to reach about 55 billion RMB, prompting local private equity firms to adopt similar "enhanced" All Weather strategies [21]