正启新程——平安基金2026年投资策略会于1月7日举行。平安恒泽混合基金经理刘斌斌在做"固收 +"2026年投资策略分析时指出，由于2025年利率维持低位，权益市场赚钱效应显著，"固收+"产品规模 迅猛增长，截至2025年第三季度，全市场"固收+"产品规模已突破2.6万亿元大关，创下历史新高。其 中，10%-20%和20%-30%含权仓位的"固收+"产品增速最快，增量最多，风险收益比优势也更为显 著。"固收+"产品在市场波动中的稳健性，也带来投资者配置需求的提升。 在此背景下，"固收+"产品将继续发挥其股债配置的优势，通过动态调整资产配置比例，在控制回撤的 同时捕捉市场机遇。转债市场方面，尽管当前估值处于历史中枢偏高水平，但供需偏紧格局下估值仍有 支撑，为"固收+"产品提供了丰富的配置选择。 刘斌斌提到了以低利率环境下的稳健型"固收+"投资框架：债券端用3年以内信用债打底赚取票息，长短 利率债交易赚取利差；采用投资组合保险策略（CPPI）动态调整敞口，股票仓位20-30%，大仓位优选 高胜率高股息及周期左侧资产，小仓位产业趋势资产增加弹性，转债主投AA+评级以上平衡性转债， 估值贵时可直接清仓。"固收+"的收 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 货币政策重点在于调结构 ——2025 年四季度货币政策委员会例会学习心得 事 项 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中国人民银行发布四季度货币政策委员会例会，我们学习 心得如下。 4、央行删掉了"防范资金空转"的表述，这意味着一旦国内经济有较大下行 压力，央行货币政策的掣肘相对较小，可随时灵活加码。 5、总而言之，四季度例会没有更改我们对于后续贷款增速和 M2 增速回落的 判断，宏观流动性最宽松的时间段可能已经过去，这意味着估值进一步抬升存 在难度，资本市场要更关注基本面。 6、对于权益资产而言，当下供需均衡仍在改善的路径上，且股债比较指标（股 债夏普比率差值）也显示股票更具配置优势。我们战略看多股票的观点不变。 但我们提示股票拔估值的摩擦力会越来越大，要更关注基本面和安全边际。 7、对于债市而言，十年期国债收益率突破前低需要货币政策的超预期的非常 规宽松，四季度货政例会看不到这一信号。后续只要经济循环和资本市场风险 偏好在持续改善，那么 2%以下的十年期国债其上行压力仍存。 风险提示： 货币政策超预期 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 1、 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ·「+」的部分:通常会增加股票、可转 债等风险和收益更高的品种，用来提升 收益，这部分做进攻。 这种股债配置策略，好处体现在收益、 风险两方面： 如果仅是按照某个固定比例，配置了股 票和债券资产，那么后续随着市场的涨 跌，股债的比例又会有变动。 比如,一开始,40%的资金投入股票基 金,60%的资金投入债券基金,股票和 债券的涨跌并不同步，假设在一段时间 后,股票基金上涨比较多，那比例就超 过40%了。 所以需要按一定的方式，进行再平衡, 恢复股债的比例。 例如，一种常见的方式是，基于市场估 值的再平衡策略,这种策略,原理来自 于巴菲特的老师格雷厄姆。 •股票的长期收益更高，使得「固收+」 的长期收益相比固收品种显著提高; •股债负相关性,减少了整体波动风险。 (2) 再平衡 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 简单来说,就是: ·当股票上涨比例较高时,通过再平衡, 止盈一些股票，加仓到债券里。 ·当股票市场下跌,股票比例降低时,就 卖掉一部分债券，加到股票里。 这样不仅可以减少波动风险,还可以自 动实现「低买高卖」，在股市低估时加 仓，在股市高估时落袋为安 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 者考虑: (1) 风险承受能力中等,希望追求资产 稳健增值的投资者。 这部分投资者,往往会面临"收益"与 "风险"的两难:担心纯股票基金波动 太大，熊市中可能会亏20%-30%甚至更 多;纯债基金或货币基金又收益有限, 跑不赢通胀。 相比固收类产品，他们希望承担多一点 点风险，来获取资产的长期稳健增值。 需要注意的是「固收+」并不是保本的， 投资者需要接受短期可能出现的小幅回 而「固收+」的定位，恰好是"中风险、 中收益"的"平衡型选手"。 (2) 想做好股债配置的投资者 。 家庭里的存量资金,通常可以按照「100 -年龄」的比例，来分配好股票资产和债 券资产。 ·股票资产部分，可配置「100-年龄」％ 的比例; •债券资产部分，则可配置「年龄」%的 比例。 其中,追求稳健的债券类资产这部分, 就可以考虑投资「固收+」品种。 (3) 作为存款、理财的替代 。 随着资管新规落地，银行理财全面净值 化,"刚兑"成为历史。同时，存款利 率持续下行，1年期定期存款利率只有不 到1%。 此时如果愿意承担一定的波动，来额外 地换取稍微高一些收益，那么「固收+」 就成为这类投资者理想 ...

2025 年 12 月 02 日 固定收益研究团队 制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观 ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业 PMI为 49.2% （前值为 49.0%，下同），环比提升 0.2pct；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（50.1%）， 环比下降 0.6pct；综合 PMI 为 49.7%（50.0%），环比下降 0.3pct。 11 月 PMI 数据关注点 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（49.0%），环比提升 0.2pct，同比下降 1.1pct，制造业 景气水平小幅回升，生产活动较 10 月有所修复。 出口改善拉动生产修复，制造业景气水平小幅回升，但仍处收缩区间。制造业 整体景气度在国际局势缓和及政策支持下逐步企稳回升，但整体回升幅度不大， 且已连续 8 个月位于收缩区间。中美达成缓和协议后，11 月 ...

Group 1 - The core advantage of "Fixed Income +" products lies in the strategy of equity and bond allocation combined with rebalancing [1][2] - "Fixed Income +" consists of two parts: a defensive portion primarily made up of low-risk bond assets and an offensive portion that includes stocks and convertible bonds to enhance returns [2][4] - The long-term returns of stocks are higher than those of bonds, which significantly improves the overall returns of "Fixed Income +" products compared to pure bond products [4][5][9] Group 2 - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reduces overall volatility risk, as when stocks rise significantly, bonds tend to perform poorly, and vice versa [15][16] - Historical data shows that during periods of stock market downturns, bond funds often experience rapid increases, demonstrating this negative correlation [20][24] - "Fixed Income +" products can provide a more stable investment option for those who cannot bear high volatility risks associated with pure equity funds [25] Group 3 - Rebalancing is essential as the initial allocation of stocks and bonds can shift due to market fluctuations, necessitating adjustments to maintain the desired ratio [26][27] - A common rebalancing strategy involves selling stocks when their proportion increases and buying bonds, and vice versa when stocks decline, effectively implementing a "buy low, sell high" approach [33][35] - Examples of successful rebalancing strategies, such as those executed by the "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment portfolio, have contributed to notable returns [36][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of "Fixed Income +" products, which combine low-risk bond assets for defense and higher-risk assets like stocks for potential returns, making them suitable for various types of investors [1][3]. Summary by Sections Characteristics of "Fixed Income +" - "Fixed Income +" consists of two parts: a defensive low-risk bond component and an offensive higher-risk component to enhance returns [1]. - The long-term returns of "Fixed Income +" products are significantly higher than those of pure bond funds, with a 20-year annualized return of approximately 7.77% compared to 4.33% for pure bond funds [3][5]. - The maximum drawdown for "Fixed Income +" products is about -12.02%, which is lower than that of equity funds, indicating a moderate risk profile [3][5]. Suitable Investor Types - **First Type: Steady Growth Seekers** Investors with moderate risk tolerance seeking steady asset growth find "Fixed Income +" appealing as it balances risk and return [7][9]. - **Second Type: Asset Allocators** Investors looking to balance stock and bond allocations can use the "100-age" rule for distribution, with "Fixed Income +" suitable for the bond portion [10]. - **Third Type: Alternatives to Savings and Wealth Management** With declining deposit rates and the end of guaranteed returns in bank wealth management, "Fixed Income +" serves as an ideal alternative for those willing to accept some volatility for higher returns [11][12][13]. - **Fourth Type: Transitional Investors** Investors optimistic about the stock market but wary of short-term corrections can use "Fixed Income +" to maintain exposure to equities with reduced volatility [17][18]. - **Fifth Type: Short to Medium-Term Fund Managers** Investors needing access to funds within one to three years can consider "Fixed Income +" as it offers better returns than traditional savings or money market funds [19][20][21]. Conclusion - "Fixed Income +" products are suitable for various investor needs, providing a balanced approach to risk and return [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of expanding domestic demand to drive China's economic recovery and achieve high-quality development, while also addressing the resilience of foreign trade amidst external shocks and the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets in a global context [2][5][12]. Economic Outlook - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, as all economic leading indicators are showing upward trends for the first time in three years, indicating potential improvement in the economic cycle [5][6]. - The GDP growth target of 5% for the year is considered achievable based on the economic data from the first three quarters [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Key measures to boost domestic consumption include the deployment of policy financial tools and the release of local debt limits, alongside efforts to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the economy [7]. - Confidence in long-term economic transformation and mid-term price recovery is crucial, with a focus on observable price signals such as stock and housing prices [7]. Foreign Trade and External Demand - China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but external demand is expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the first half of the following year [8]. - Eleven out of twenty leading indicators suggest a potential recovery in external demand, although caution is advised due to the risk of demand overextension [8]. Industry Policy and New Economic Growth - The article outlines a clear framework for modernizing the industrial system, categorizing industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring tailored policy support [9][10]. - Traditional industries will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, while emerging industries will see a shift from subsidies to market-oriented support [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The investment landscape suggests a shift from bonds to equities, with a focus on dividend strategies across various industries, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [5][12]. - The article highlights the ongoing strong momentum for gold, driven by non-traditional macro factors, and suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold as global order remains unstable [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, indicating a significant psychological threshold for the A-share market, with investors needing to reassess their stock-bond asset allocation strategies amidst market fluctuations and opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The rise above 4000 points is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the stock market, as well as expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, while advancements in technology, particularly in AI, are seen as key drivers of the current bull market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Despite the upward trend, there are challenges such as increasing valuation disparities and potential short-term adjustments due to geopolitical risks and economic indicators like the PMI decline [3][4]. - The market is expected to face a new round of horizontal adjustments in November, with investors advised to pause on increasing positions due to emotional pullbacks and a lack of immediate positive catalysts [4][5]. Group 3: Stock-Bond Allocation - The stock-bond "seesaw" effect has become pronounced, with a shift in investor preference from fixed income to equities due to improved economic outlooks and declining bond yields [5][6]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market, including a significant decline in yields, have led to a more balanced risk-return profile between stocks and bonds, suggesting that equities may continue to outperform in the near future [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits are recovering at an accelerated pace, with the cumulative year - on - year growth of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size significantly increasing. The profit growth rate in September continued to be high, indicating an accelerated recovery of corporate profitability [4]. - Structurally, the year - on - year total profits of the three major sectors have all increased compared to the previous period, and the equipment manufacturing industry has provided strong support. Profits of enterprises of different types and scales have improved [5][6]. - In the bond market, it showed an independent trend on the day of the report. The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [7][8]. 3. Section Summaries Industrial Enterprise Profit Situation - **Overall Profit Growth**: From January to September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than that from January to August, reaching the highest cumulative growth rate since August 2024. In September, the profits increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than in August [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, remaining the same as from January to August; the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the operating income profit margin decreased by 0.19 percentage points year - on - year, with the decline recovering by 1.68 percentage points. Stable volume, slightly rising prices, and recovering profit margins led to a significant increase in the cumulative profits of industrial enterprises above designated size [5]. Structural Analysis - **By Sector**: From January to September, the total profits of the mining industry decreased by 29.3% year - on - year (previously - 30.6%), the manufacturing industry increased by 9.9% (previously + 7.4%), and the public utilities increased by 10.3% (previously + 9.4%). The profit decline of the mining industry narrowed by 1.3 percentage points, the manufacturing industry increased by 2.5 percentage points, and the public utilities increased by 0.9 percentage points. The profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.4%, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 3.4 percentage points [5]. - **By Enterprise Nature**: From January to September, the profits of state - owned enterprises decreased by 0.3% year - on - year (previously - 1.7%), joint - stock enterprises increased by 2.8% (previously + 1.1%), foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 4.9% (previously + 0.9%), and private enterprises increased by 5.1% (previously + 3.3%). The profit growth of private enterprises was 1.9 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size, and 1.8 percentage points faster than from January to August. The profits of large, medium, and small enterprises all improved [6]. - **By Industrial Chain Position**: From January to September, the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining accounted for 11.9% of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size (previously 12.1%), the middle - stream material manufacturing accounted for 15.8% (previously 15.6%), the downstream equipment manufacturing accounted for 38.1% (previously 37.5%), the downstream consumer goods manufacturing accounted for 21.1% (previously 21.3%), other manufacturing accounted for 0.6% (unchanged), and public utilities accounted for 12.5% (previously 12.9%) [6]. Inventory and Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of September, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.6% (previously + 2.1%) and 4.9% (previously + 5.0%) respectively, with changes of + 0.5 percentage points and - 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real inventory decreased year - on - year. The overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises at the end of September was 58.0%, the same as the previous period [7]. Bond Market Situation - **Market Performance**: In the morning session, bond yields rose, possibly pricing in the positive outcome of China - US negotiations. Although the equity market performed well during the day, it did not suppress the bond market. The bond market showed an independent trend, and the yields of interest - rate bonds generally declined. After the central bank's statement on resuming open - market treasury bond trading, long - term yields dropped rapidly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by about 3bp, and the yields of the 10 - year CDB active bond and the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by about 4bp [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The report maintains its view on stock - bond allocation [8].