在经历了一段连续上涨后，近期A股迎来阶段性震荡整固。建信基金认为，短期震荡有利于消化获利盘 压力，为后续中长期行情蓄力。同时，债市投资性价比逐渐提升，或迎来布局窗口。在此背景下，股债 协同配置成为投资者把握行情的重要策略。据了解，建信基金二级债基新品建信丰泽债券（A类 025289、C类025290）正在发行，力争为投资者捕捉股债多元资产机遇。 股市方面，随着前期一系列稳增长政策落地，国内经济基本面持续温和复苏，市场风险偏好回暖带动赚 钱效应扩散，资金面流入成为行情向上的重要推动力量，下一阶段市场或维持震荡偏强的走势，投资机 会有望"多点开花"。债市方面，在股债跷跷板效应等因素影响下，2025年债券资产表现相对较弱，这也 为二级债基提供了较好的逢低介入机会。 公开资料显示，建信丰泽债券股债仓位二八开，对债券的投资比例不低于基金资产的80%，投资于股票 等权益类资产的比例为基金资产的5%-20%，以期灵活把握多资产行情，丰富组合收益来源。同时，在 权益仓位的管理中，该基金将通过量化分析框架结合因子模型进行个股选择和投资组合构建，以价值红 利风格为基础，辅以预期和财务质量等因子，力争通过前瞻性的多风格配置适应不同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market's upward trend has led to a significant recovery in the performance of actively managed equity funds, with over 90% of funds exceeding their previous year's net value [1][2] - As of September 12, the CSI 300 index has risen by 15.2% year-to-date, with over 80% of actively managed equity funds outperforming the market, achieving an average return of 28.03% [2] - The "Ant Financial Gold Selection" equity fund has an average return of 29.75% year-to-date, surpassing the performance of the benchmark index [2] Group 2 - More than 80% of investors in equity funds on the Ant Financial platform have achieved profitability, with an average return of 12% for their holdings [2] - The probability of positive returns for investors holding the Gold Selection equity fund is 17% higher than for those holding non-Gold Selection funds, with a return rate that is 7.8% higher [2] - The performance of actively managed equity funds is attributed to both the overall market recovery and the ability of fund managers to generate excess returns [2] Group 3 - Three key investment behaviors have been identified that significantly enhance profitability: diversified allocation, reasonable holding periods, and product selection [4] - Investors who effectively manage their stock-bond allocation have a 6% higher probability of profitability compared to those holding a single asset [5] - Historical data shows that a classic stock-bond combination of 20% stock funds and 80% bond funds yielded an 11.85% cumulative return with a maximum drawdown of only 5.04% during market transitions [5] Group 4 - Investors focusing on long-term stable products tend to achieve better returns than those chasing annual "champion funds," with the Gold Selection equity fund yielding 124.41% since 2019 compared to 95.86% for champion funds [6] - The stability of excess returns, consistency in investment style, and stable management scale are crucial factors for investors when selecting products [6] - Healthy and rational investment behaviors are emphasized as essential for smoothing out the volatility associated with high-risk investments, thereby increasing overall profitability [6]

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in government bond futures, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts reaching new lows since March 24, indicating a bearish trend in the bond market [1][2] - The recent inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, showing a 0.4% year-on-year decline in CPI and a 2.9% year-on-year decline in PPI, has contributed to the adjustment in the bond market, as stronger inflation data typically exerts downward pressure on bond prices [1] - The bond market has been experiencing a downturn since late June, with a notable drop in August, primarily driven by rising risk appetite due to the continuous increase in the stock market and heightened inflation expectations stemming from "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to increased volatility, contrasting sharply with the anticipated bull market in 2024, resulting in lower-than-expected yields for bond investors this year [2] - As of September 9, 2025, the cumulative yield of the China Bond Composite Index for the year stands at only 0.45%, putting significant pressure on bond fund managers, particularly those managing pure bond funds [2] - Analysts suggest that bonds are now viewed as a "weak asset," and recommend adopting a "weak mindset" towards them, reflecting a shift in institutional preferences towards equities over bonds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement [10]. - The allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [10]. - Against the backdrop of revised economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Profit - The cumulative and monthly year - on - year declines in industrial enterprise profits have both narrowed. From January to July, the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to January - June. In July, the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to June, indicating continuous improvement in corporate profitability [5]. - Analyzing industrial enterprise profits from the aspects of volume, price, and profit margin, from January to July, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - June. The profit margin of above - scale industrial revenue decreased by 4.63% year - on - year, an increase of 0.18 percentage points compared to January - June. The recovery of the profit margin drove the narrowing of the decline in industrial profits [5]. Structure By Industry Category - From January to July, the total profit of the mining industry decreased by 31.6% year - on - year, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the profit of the public utilities industry increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The expansion of the profit decline in the mining industry was due to anti - involution and frequent extreme summer weather, while the expansion of the profit increase in the public utilities industry was affected by the widespread high - temperature weather in July [6]. - In July, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 6.8% year - on - year, a 5.4 - percentage - point increase compared to June, driving the growth rate of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises to accelerate by 3.6 percentage points compared to June. The profit of high - tech manufacturing changed from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the growth rate of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June [6]. By Enterprise Nature - From January to July, the profits of state - owned enterprises decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, the profits of joint - stock enterprises decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, the profits of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the profits of private enterprises increased by 1.8% year - on - year [7]. - In July, the profits of medium - sized enterprises above designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the profits of small enterprises increased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing significant improvement in efficiency. The monthly profit of private enterprises increased by 2.6% year - on - year, 4.1 percentage points higher than the average level of the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises [7]. By Industrial Chain Position - From January to July, the proportion of the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining in the profits of above - scale industrial enterprises was 12.3%, the proportion of mid - stream material manufacturing was 15.4%, the proportion of downstream equipment manufacturing was 38.0%, the proportion of downstream consumer goods manufacturing was 21.1%, the proportion of other manufacturing was 0.6%, and the proportion of public utilities was 12.5% [7]. - Inventory destocking accelerated. At the end of July, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.4% and 6.0% respectively, both decreasing by 0.7 percentage points. The overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises at the end of July was 57.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [7]. Market - The industrial enterprise profit data was released at 9:30. Although the cumulative and monthly year - on - year declines in industrial enterprise profits both narrowed, the bond market did not trade based on this data, and bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range. After the mid - day break, the A - share market rose first and then fell back, with heavy trading volume and a decline. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond yields first rose and then fell. At the end of the session, due to redemption factors, funds changed from buying to selling, and coupled with tightening funds, bond yields rose again [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection to achieve better investment outcomes [2] - The article discusses the recent performance of fixed income plus (固收+) products, highlighting that despite being a mix of equity and debt, the predominant debt component can lead to declines when the bond market experiences significant downturns [3][5] - A table is provided showing the performance of various asset allocation strategies over different time frames, indicating that higher equity exposure generally leads to better returns, especially over the long term [5] Group 2 - The performance data reveals that a 100% equity allocation yielded a 31.80% return over the past year, while a 100% bond allocation only achieved a 3.81% return in the same period [5] - The article suggests that understanding the impact of bond market fluctuations is crucial for investors in fixed income plus products, as these fluctuations can offset equity gains [3][5]

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading sentiment is warming up, with asset linkage indicators showing a recovery from historical lows. The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently below one standard deviation, suggesting improved relative value for stocks compared to bonds [2][19]. - The overall A-share index PE valuation stands at 20.4, with most broad-based indices having PE valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while the ChiNext index is at a low historical percentile of around 15% [2][20]. - The report highlights a rise in trading activity, with turnover rates and transaction volumes increasing compared to the previous month, indicating sustained market enthusiasm [2][27]. Group 2 - The report notes that the proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has increased to 82.58%, indicating a positive trend in individual stock performance [38]. - The buyback scale has risen to 14.837 billion, reflecting a trend where companies are repurchasing shares, often seen as a sign of confidence in their valuation [41]. - The net reduction in industrial capital reached 30.359 billion, indicating a widening scope of capital reduction compared to the previous month, which may reflect concerns about stock valuations [45]. Group 3 - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.20%, which is below the historical average and indicates a potential for upward movement in stock valuations [19]. - The market configuration indicators show a high degree of valuation dispersion, with the valuation variation coefficient at 0.835, suggesting a relatively high risk environment [24]. - The report emphasizes that 90% of industries are showing positive monthly trends, indicating a broad-based recovery in market sentiment [35].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of AI in asset allocation, enhancing the predictive capabilities of stock and bond performance through a dynamic weighting system [2][3] - The AI-driven model has successfully predicted market trends, including the recent performance of value stocks outperforming growth stocks in March and April [3] - Predictions for 2025 indicate that bond assets will maintain relative advantages, while stock market performance is expected to stabilize at the bottom in Q3 and slightly recover in Q4 [3] Asset Allocation Framework - The AI-enabled research system combines five major cycles to predict stock and bond performance, with a current high weighting of 55% on the monetary credit framework [2][3] - The allocation for domestic assets in July shows: 12.64% in equities, 3.58% in dividends, 76.45% in bonds, and 7.33% in gold, with adjustments compared to traditional risk parity models [4] - For overseas markets, the allocation includes: France 15.62%, Germany 14.85%, the US 20.24%, Japan 16.44%, Hong Kong 11.50%, and India 22.35%, with slight adjustments in France, Germany, and Hong Kong [4] Industry Rotation Strategy - The AI-driven industry rotation strategy has significantly improved performance metrics, achieving a 420% increase in the Sharpe ratio and a 41% reduction in maximum drawdown compared to traditional strategies [5] - The latest industry outlook for Q3 suggests overweight positions in machinery, comprehensive sectors, and electronics, while maintaining standard positions in automotive, communication, and construction, and underweighting banking and retail [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management is exploring new innovations in the pension finance sector, having previously launched the first ten-year pension wealth management product and the first joint venture personal pension wealth management product in China [1][2]. Group 1: Product Innovations - The latest product, "Beijia Intelligent Heart," aims to enhance returns by introducing rare stock assets into the R2 low-risk personal pension product, utilizing AI for stock-bond allocation [3]. - This product is notable for filling the gap in stock allocation within R2 pension products, which typically focus on fixed income or similar assets [8]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of June 30, the total scale of pension wealth management products exceeded 1,040 billion yuan, with personal pension wealth management products surpassing 12 billion yuan [5]. - "Beijia Anxin," launched on May 10, 2022, achieved an annualized return of 5.30%, ranking first among 51 pension wealth management products [6]. - "Beijia Intelligent Heart," launched on April 15, 2023, reported annualized returns of 3.84% for A shares and 3.93% for L shares, ranking second among newly established personal pension wealth management products this year [7]. Group 3: Systematic Investment Strategy - The BSYS platform, a flagship strategy of BlackRock, employs machine learning and big data analysis to capture valuable investment signals, managing over 256 billion USD globally [9]. - "Beijia Intelligent Heart" utilizes a systematic approach for asset allocation, dynamically adjusting stock-bond ratios based on risk and return targets, while integrating various market indicators for timing decisions [10][11].