Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The situation in the Middle East, especially the potential conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, is putting significant pressure on the global energy market, leading to shortages and price increases [1] - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is on a downward trajectory due to a series of wrong policies in the United States [3] - The AI - induced disruption in the software industry and the potential for a new round of large - scale selling in the stock market due to the Middle East situation may have a negative impact on the US economy [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Logic - CNN claims that Iran has started laying a small number of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has about 6000 mines and 28 submarines according to US intelligence [1][2] - The private credit crisis triggered by BlackRock's redemption restrictions has put pressure on the insurance industry, and there are concerns about a 2008 - style systemic risk [2] - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year, and CEOs and experts have issued warnings about potential financial risks [2] - The Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026, and consumer K - type differentiation is intensifying [2] Impact on the Energy Market - The IEA plans to propose the release of the largest - ever strategic crude oil reserve, and the G7 will hold a meeting to discuss the Iran crisis and soaring energy prices [1] - The OECD's strategic reserve is 12.47 billion barrels, but it is far from enough to cover the potential supply loss [1][3] - The Middle East conflict has led to a 20% global LNG supply gap, causing a scramble for LNG and price increases [1] Impact on the Stock Market - The Nasdaq futures have broken through support levels, and AI's disruptive substitution and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling in US stocks [3] - The wealth - disappearance effect caused by the decline in US stocks may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3] US Policy and Global Economy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3]