早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国和以色列周末宣布从空中和海上对伊朗发起打击。伊朗最高领袖、国防部 | | | | | 部长、革命卫队总司令、武装部队总参谋长遇难。美军称美以还需要几天时间才能 | | | | | 完全压制伊方防空系统。 | | | | | 2、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队对以色列和该地区的美国军事基地发动了大规模导弹和无 | | | | | 人机袭击。公告称，中东地区的 27 个美国军事基地以及以色列军队位于哈基里亚 | | | | | 的总司令部和特拉维夫的大型国防工业园区等，均遭到袭击。 | | | | | 3、AI"打地鼠"式抛压令华尔街措手不及——标普 500 年内仅涨 1%，个股波动分化。 | | | | IBM | 单日暴跌 13%、软件股接连中弹，机构投资者被迫转向"分散化交易"等复杂对 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 沃什的降息+缩表组合，表明美联储货币政策将重大转向，将对权益类资产产 生强烈的流动性收缩预期。 纳指击穿半年线。AI 对诸多行业的颠覆性替代可能诱发新一轮大规模抛售。美 股下跌造成的财富消失效应或对美国消费产生重大负面影响。 鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济已在 2025 年底越过顶部区域，开始向下 运行。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 27 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、德银称，2025 年美股获得相当于 GDP 约 2%的创纪录资金流入，但却跑输全球， | | | | | 创下 15 年来最差相对表现。随着估值溢价仍高、 ...

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and started to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [3] - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] - Wash's combination of interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in the Fed's monetary policy, creating a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [3] Summary by Related Information Categories Software Industry - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warns that the current high asset prices and blind profit - seeking are reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, and the credit cycle reversal may trigger an unexpected wave of defaults, with the AI - disrupted software industry as a potential hard - hit area [1] - Arini's founder warns that even without a substantial impact from AI, market panic can raise financing costs and trigger large - scale defaults in the software industry, as software companies generally operate with high leverage and rely on private credit for financing [1] - Traders are short - selling ETFs holding a large number of software company loans through record - high put options, with a focus on Invesco's BKLN [1] - OpenAI aims to replace giants like Salesforce and Workday, while Anthropic emphasizes collaboration with existing software, leading to a general rebound in enterprise software stocks [1] Global Economy and Finance - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year [2] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's nominee Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Nomura predicts that the Fed's uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - High - end consumer spending remains resilient, but middle - and low - income families are cutting back, and funds are flowing from tech stocks to defensive sectors [2] Technology and Business Cooperation - AMD and Meta have a five - year strategic partnership, with Meta getting 6GW of AMD GPU and AMD offering up to 1.6 billion performance - based warrants (about 10% equity) in exchange for a $100 billion order [1] - Google will build a new data center in Minnesota and cooperate with Xcel Energy to implement innovative energy solutions [1] AI - related Technology Trends - OpenClaw's Steinberger submits 90,000 lines of code in a year with AI, stating that AI can solve problems autonomously, and he predicts a full - scale technological explosion in 2026 [1] US Policy - making and International Relations - The Trump administration plans to use the Pentagon's AI project to set reference prices for key minerals and build a global metal trading group, initially focusing on four metals: germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [1] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, giving up global hegemony and adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The US has taken actions such as attempting to arrest the Venezuelan president, control Venezuelan oil, and buy Greenland, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2]

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储理事沃勒表示，首席执行官们表示人工智能将导致大量裁员。疲软的劳 | | | | | 动力市场状况可能持续下去。就业市场看起来有需求问题，而不是供给问题，仍认 | | | | | 为劳动力市场疲软且脆弱。 | | | | | 2、Citrini Research 一份设想 2028 年 AI 引发白领失业、消费萎缩与经济收缩的 | | | | | 情景报告，引发市场剧烈反应。DoorDash、American Express、KKR、Blackstone | | | | | 等股价大跌，支付与软件板块同步承压。 | | | | | 3、随着市场对 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 24 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的 | | | | | 关税措施，缺乏明确法律授权。在法律压力之下，美国政府发布行政令，宣布终止 | | | | | 一系列关税措施。 | | | | | 2、美国政府转而援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条。对进口商品征收 10%的所谓"临 | | | | | 时关税"，为期 150 天，仅有部分商品豁免。十几个小时后，美方又声称将其提高 | | | | | 至 15%。 | | | | | 3、巴克莱数据，标普 500 指数今年以来的交易区间创下 1960 年代以来最窄纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on February 11, with the non-ferrous sector showing resilience, particularly the ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652), which rose by 1.84% [1]. Non-Ferrous Sector Performance - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks rise, with Huayou Cobalt increasing over 3%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2%, and Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth both rising over 1% [2][3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with respective weightings of 15.07%, 7.81%, and 4.38% [4]. International Precious Metals Market - On February 11, international precious metal prices increased, with spot gold reaching $5,050 per ounce and silver rising over 1% [5]. - The unexpected stagnation in U.S. retail sales data has fueled bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5]. Company Developments - Xiamen Tungsten announced plans to acquire a 39% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining, aiming to enhance its tungsten and molybdenum resource security [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine for $1.015 billion, with plans to increase gold production significantly by 2030 [6]. Long-term Trends in Precious Metals - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is strengthening, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years [8]. - The expansion of fiscal policies and sovereign debt is injecting new momentum into the precious metals market, with gold's monetary properties expected to strengthen further [9]. Copper Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains optimistic due to supply constraints and increasing demand from AI data centers and energy storage [10][11]. - The anticipated supply disruptions in global copper mines could support a long-term upward trend in copper prices [11]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, driven by monetary easing, supply rigidity, and new demand dynamics [11]. - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is positioned to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals, with a high gold and copper content of 49% [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has started to decline since the end of 2025 due to a series of wrong policies in the US [3] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major global assets [3] - Wash's combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed's monetary policy, which will lead to a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [3] - There are significant risks in the US financial market, including potential capital controls, a possible stock market crash, and a negative impact on consumption [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Situation - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks for four consecutive weeks, with the most intense selling since early April last year [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility put the world on the verge of a "capital war", and the US may face capital control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's incoming chairman Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - The uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer spending in the US shows a K - shaped divergence, with high - income consumers remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] Stock Market Conditions - The short - selling volume of single - stocks reached a record high last week, and the short - selling scale was twice the long - buying scale from January 30 to February 5 [1] - Anxiety about AI reshaping the US economy led to a sell - off on Wall Street, with a total of $611 billion in market value evaporating from 164 stocks in the software, financial services, and asset management sectors last week [1] - Funds are flowing from tech stocks to defensive sectors, and investors should be wary of subsequent sharp fluctuations [1][2] - The Nasdaq futures rebounded after breaking through the six - month moving average, which is a technical pull - back and may trigger a new round of large - scale tech stock selling [3] Commodity Market Conditions - The core driving force of this round of commodity market is a "hard - asset rotation" from global investment portfolios, which can significantly boost commodity prices in the short term [1] Private Credit Market Conditions - AI's disruption of the software industry has impacted the private credit market, causing the stock prices of institutions like Ares and KKR to plummet [1] - UBS warns that if the disruption accelerates, the private credit default rate may soar to 13% [1] Space - related News - Musk has shifted SpaceX's focus from going to Mars to building a city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved within 10 years, while going to Mars will take more than 20 years [1] Monetary Policy Expectations - PIMCO's global economic advisor believes that Wash may adjust the forward guidance, balance sheet, credit allocation, and mortgage - related areas [1] - Wash may not provide forward guidance on monetary policy and may support two or even three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The period 2025 - 2026 marks the end of "American exceptionalism" and the start of "global rebalancing," with international stocks, Chinese consumer stocks, and emerging - market commodity producers as potential winners [1] - US stocks face ongoing selling pressure, and market volatility is likely to increase due to factors such as CTA strategy reduction, liquidity depletion, and negative gamma effects [1] - The world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility, and investors should note capital control risks [2] - The Fed's policy uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's monetary policy is about to make a major shift, creating a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity - related assets [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 due to consecutive wrong US policies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Financial Market - High - profile figures' warnings: - BofA's chief investment strategist believes the new cycle will see non - US assets as winners [1] - Bridgewater's founder warns of a "capital war" and capital control risks in the US [2] - Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing selling pressure on US stocks, with potential sell - offs of about $33 billion if the market weakens and $8.7 billion if it rises [1] - Policy and geopolitical impacts: - The expected policy of Fed nominee Wash will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - US geopolitical actions bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - Market trends and asset performance: - In early February, US momentum stocks suffered a major sell - off, and investors shifted to value and traditional defensive stocks [2] - Nasdaq futures' rebound after breaking through the half - year line is a technical pullback, and a new round of tech - stock selling may occur [3] - The decline of US stocks may negatively impact US consumption [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 [3] Other News - SpaceX is recruiting engineers to develop AI satellites and space data centers, and Musk mentioned a large - scale return to the moon [1] - Japan's political situation leads to expectations of fiscal stimulus, pushing up stock index futures and weakening the yen and Japanese bonds [1] - Base metals are expected to rebound before gold in the second quarter [1]

来源：经济学家圈 资料图。本文来 源：新浪财经 达利欧警告：我们正处在"资本战争"边缘 桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势和资本市场波动加剧的背景下，全球正处于"资本战争"的边缘。 2月3日，据CNBC报道，达利欧在阿联酋迪拜举行的世界政府峰会上接受CNBC采访时表示，"资本战争"是指通过贸易禁运、阻止进入资本市场或利用债 务所有权作为杠杆等措施将资金武器化。 这位传奇投资者强调，尽管尚未陷入"资本战争"，但已非常接近这一临界点，相互恐惧可能轻易将世界推入这场以金钱为武器的冲突。他指出，特朗普政 府近期对格陵兰的举动，已导致紧张局势升级。据新华社报道，此前，特朗普政府曾威胁若不满足其对丹麦领土格陵兰岛的要求，将对欧洲发动贸易战， 甚至不排除动用军事力量。 欧洲持有美元资产的投资者担心可能遭受制裁，而美国方面也担忧无法获得欧洲的资本支持。根据花旗研究数据，去年4月至11月期间，欧洲投资者占美 国国债外国购买量的80%。达利欧强调，"资本和金钱至关重要"，全球各地正在实施资本管制，主权财富基金和央行已在为此类管制做准备。 在市场剧烈波动之际，达利欧重申黄金仍是最佳避险资产，建议投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world is on the brink of a capital war, as stated by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, at the World Government Summit in Dubai. He emphasizes that trade deficits indicate capital imbalances between the U.S. and other countries, which could potentially lead to conflict [2]. Group 1: Gold as a Hedge Asset - Investors should not focus on short-term fluctuations in gold prices but rather view gold as the best hedging asset, maintaining a certain proportion in their investment portfolios [2]. - Following a significant drop of over 10% in gold prices since January 30, the price rebounded, reaching nearly $5,000 with a daily increase of 6.2%. However, it later experienced further volatility, dropping to a low of $4,789.5 on February 5 before stabilizing around $4,900 [2]. - Dalio asserts that a single day's drop does not alter gold's status as a safe-haven asset, noting that gold has increased by 65% over the past year, despite a subsequent 16% decline from its peak [2]. Group 2: Strategic Asset Allocation - Central banks, governments, and sovereign wealth funds should consider the appropriate proportion of gold in their asset allocations, as it serves as an effective risk diversification tool [2].