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马斯克的“金手铐”,隐藏着特斯拉的一场豪赌?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 07:55
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's proposed compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, viewed as a "golden handcuff," ties Musk's future to ambitious performance targets over the next decade, potentially elevating him to billionaire status if successful [1][19]. Compensation Structure - The plan includes a performance-based agreement that could grant Musk up to 423.7 million shares of Tesla stock, contingent on meeting specific market capitalization and operational milestones [2][4]. - The compensation is structured in 12 tranches, with Musk receiving approximately 35.31 million shares for each milestone achieved, which are deemed to be of "hellish difficulty" [2][4]. Market Capitalization Goals - The first milestone requires Tesla's market capitalization to increase from approximately $1.1 trillion to $2 trillion, with subsequent increments of $500 billion until reaching $6.5 trillion, and then $1 trillion increments to a final target of $8.5 trillion [2][4]. Operational Milestones - Key operational targets include: - Delivering 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively - Achieving 10 million active FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscriptions - Delivering 1 million humanoid robots - Operating 1 million Robotaxis commercially [4][10]. Financial Performance Targets - The plan stipulates that Tesla's adjusted EBITDA must reach $400 billion, necessitating a significant increase in revenue, estimated to require annual revenues of $2 trillion to support this profit level [4][15]. Challenges in Execution - Achieving the vehicle delivery target implies an average annual sales of over 1.2 million units, which is challenging given recent declines in delivery numbers [5][6]. - The global electric vehicle market is expected to slow down, with competitors like BYD projected to surpass Tesla in market share by 2025 [6][8]. Technological and Market Hurdles - The FSD subscription model faces challenges, with current adoption rates around 10%, and significant technological advancements are needed to achieve full autonomy [8][9]. - The Robotaxi initiative is still in its infancy, with limited pilot programs and regulatory hurdles to overcome [9][10]. Humanoid Robot Ambitions - The target for delivering 1 million humanoid robots has been pushed back to 2035, with current production still in early development stages [11][12]. - Market demand for humanoid robots remains uncertain, and achieving cost-effective production is critical for success [13][14]. Strategic Importance of Musk - Musk's leadership is viewed as crucial for Tesla's innovation and growth, with the compensation plan reflecting the company's reliance on his vision and capabilities [19].