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浙商证券:服务消费好于商品消费 跨境核心市场向东南亚、拉美等多区域渗透
智通财经网· 2025-11-27 02:48
Core Insights - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates a warming trend in pricing, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, and a steady demand for tourism, while business travel shows signs of marginal recovery [1] Travel Industry - The travel sector is experiencing a beta phase, with business travel showing signs of recovery. Key factors influencing travel decisions include emotional value, time efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. The preference for travel is shifting from mere sightseeing to experiential activities [2] - In the OTA (Online Travel Agency) segment, accommodation services are performing better than transportation, with overall growth remaining stable. The competitive landscape for OTAs has not been significantly disrupted, and there is potential for improvement in OTA ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [2] - For scenic spots, performance in 2025 is expected to vary, with natural attractions outperforming artificial ones. Increased competition and capacity limits during peak seasons are putting pressure on individual scenic spots, making asset integration a crucial growth strategy [2] - Hotel RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is anticipated to rebound after two years of decline, with supply expected to stabilize. Leading hotel companies are likely to enhance their pricing power, and those with strong membership systems and operational capabilities may navigate through competitive pressures effectively [2] Offline Retail - The pricing environment is showing marginal improvement, benefiting same-store sales in supermarkets. The brand momentum of Fat Donglai continues to be released, and its benchmark status in adjustments is evident, leading to potential performance releases for leading players [3] Local Services - Competition in local services is expected to intensify by 2025, with a return to rational competition in home delivery services anticipated in 2026, which may lead to profit recovery. Platforms are increasing investments in instant retail, while the "takeaway war" in 2025 may exert continuous pressure on profitability [4] E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is experiencing moderate growth, with a focus on enhancing user experience and platform merchant ecosystems rather than solely on GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) by 2025. Instant retail is emerging as a new growth engine, with significant participation from Alibaba and JD.com [5] - During the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, platforms extended promotional periods and simplified discount rules, indicating a shift towards rational sales strategies. Instant retail is expected to accelerate in 2026, with AI and e-commerce driving industry efficiency [5] Cross-border E-commerce - The sector is addressing short-term disruptions from tariffs and compliance policies, but the export side remains resilient due to China's stable supply chain advantages. Core markets are expected to expand from saturated regions to Southeast Asia and Latin America [6] - Focus is on two types of targets: those with strong barriers and stable performance, leveraging logistics, compliance, and digital capabilities, and strong cross-border sellers with robust branding and localized operations [6]