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国泰海通|策略:地缘政治强化再通胀预期,建议超配原油
国泰海通证券研究· 2026-03-09 14:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to overweight A-shares, H-shares, gold, crude oil, and industrial commodities due to the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East and rising concerns about global re-inflation [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-shares and H-shares - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares. The broad deficit is expected to expand further, and economic policies are likely to become more proactive as 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The stability and appreciation of the RMB, along with a moderately easing monetary policy, will support this outlook [1]. - The recommendation to overweight H-shares is based on stable expectations for China's macro policies and capital market reforms, which enhance market risk appetite. The decline in the risk-free interest rate in mainland China and the easing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy will also contribute to stable liquidity in Hong Kong [1]. Group 2: Gold and Crude Oil - The article suggests an overweight position in gold due to the accelerated restructuring of global order and deteriorating geopolitical conditions. The U.S. government's actions have significantly weakened its international credibility, making safety a scarce resource, with gold serving as a tangible hedge against uncertainty. Continuous purchases of gold by large asset management institutions and central banks will support long-term gold prices, despite potential short-term volatility from speculative funds [2]. - An overweight recommendation for crude oil is made in light of the rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is expected to provide a temporary boost to oil prices, despite relatively weak global oil demand and fluctuating OPEC+ production policies [2]. Group 3: Industrial Commodities - The article recommends an overweight position in industrial commodities, particularly copper, due to an upward revision in demand driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles. The expansion of AI computing power and modernization of power grids will create additional structural demand. The rising development costs and complexity of copper extraction may lead to a temporary increase in copper prices, making industrial commodities comparatively more attractive in terms of risk-return profile [3].