股指期货全景日报 2026/3/3 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 3/4 9:30 中国2月官方制造业、非制造业、综合PMI | | --- | --- | | | 3/4 21:15 美国2月ADP就业人数 | | | 3/6 21:30 美国2月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率 | | | 3/4-3/11 全国政协十四届四次会议 | | 重点关注 | 3/5—— 十四届全国人大四次会议 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深 ...

本报记者杨洁 近期贵金属市场风险显著增加，多家国有大行发布调整个人客户上海黄金交易所延期合约保证金比例的 通知。 延期合约交易保证金比例是指在贵金属交易中，投资者需要按照一定比例缴纳的保证金。当投资者进行 延期交易时，需要支付一定比例的保证金作为保证，以确保其在交易过程中能够按照约定履行义务。如 果投资者的保证金比例不足以弥补损失，投资者需要追加保证金。 具体来看，2月24日，中国银行发布公告，对代理个人上海黄金交易所业务（包括白银延期合约和黄金 延期合约）的交易保证金比例、涨跌幅度限制进行相应调整。 2月25日，农业银行发布公告称，该行定于自2026年2月26日（星期四）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、 mAu（T+D）、Ag（T+D）合约的保证金比例从80%调整为100%。 工商银行2月25日发布公告称，对代理个人客户延期合约的交易保证金比例进行调整。自2026年2月27日 （星期五）收盘清算时起，该行代理个人客户Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au （T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的标准交易保证金比例由80%调整为100%，差异化保证金 作同向、同幅度调整；该行代 ...

从宏观经济、政策走向、产业变迁，2026年十大宏观趋势展望报告描绘出一幅有关2026年中国经济的全景画面。以下是十大宏观趋势的阐释。 趋势一，2026年，我国经济会持续处在 "修复式增长" 阶段，房地产的走向依旧是影响整体局面的关键变量。 报告把当前地产周期界定为 "L型" 筑底，这表明它既不会持续深度下探，也不容易出现V型反转，而是迈入一个逐步稳定的平台期。需要留意的是，房地产 已不再是最主要的经济增长动力，其政策重点正从以往的规模扩张转向构建 "新发展模式"，像保障性住房建设以及城市更新。但这并不表明地产就不再具 备重要性了，它的实际价值存在于"稳定"之中，房价预期的趋于稳定，不但能够降低对经济的直接负面影响，而且还能够修复众多家庭的财富感受以及消费 信心。从这样的一个视角来进行观察，房地产实现软着陆依旧是2026年经济稳定修复的关键基础。 趋势二，物价将会温和地回升起来，名义GDP的增速有希望从4%反弹到5%，而这对于企业利润以及居民收入得到改善而言是至关重要的。 过往几年间，我们已然习惯了处于低通胀乃至物价下行的状况之中，然而这实际上对企业的利润范围造成了挤压，并且也致使大家产生了"钱愈发难以赚 取" ...

股票市场 春节休市期间（2月16日至2月20日），全球股市多数上涨，美股纳斯达克指数涨1.5%，欧洲主要股指涨幅超 2%，为A股营造了良好的外部氛围 。港股市场在假期期间呈现"高开低走"态势，恒生指数先扬后抑，机器人概念 虽因春晚效应一度点燃市场情绪，但资本分歧显现，宇树科技等标的面临短期兑现压力。南向资金与外资对港股 科技龙头的配置出现阶段性博弈，恒科指数整体承压。 融智投资FOF市场周报2026年02月第3周 市场概览 债券市场 数据来源：高阶分析。本资料仅提供投资者自研使用。 第1页 宏观政策 国际市场 美股上周整体上行，但内部分化加剧。道琼斯指数在五个交易日中三次收阳，仅在2月23日下跌1.66%，显示传 统经济板块相对稳健；纳斯达克指数虽周涨1.51%，但科技股从"普涨"转向结构性筛选，AI产业链中仅具备清晰 兑现路径的龙头标的获资金持续加仓。美元指数与美债收益率同步上行，反映市场对再通胀预期的定价。 本周关注 节前一周，在央行积极呵护流动性的背景下，债市情绪继续回暖。央行通过7天逆回购及6个月买断式逆回购净投 放规模较大，资金利率大幅下行，10年期国债活跃券收益率成功突破1.80%的强阻力位，下行 ...

分析师 1: 各位投资者大家晚上好，欢迎大家参加华创固收团队的周观点交流会。那今天也是大年初 八，是我们在马年的第一次的汇报。首先也是给各位投资者拜个晚年，祝大家在马年马踏 星河，所愿皆得。那今天的话，我们主要还是开年，春节之后，给大家汇报一下我们对于 债券市场，利率、信用、转债三个板块的看法，也帮大家梳理一下，就是在这个节中，市 场到底有哪些值得关注的信息。那么开年我们需要关注哪些对债券市场有影响的因素。从 今天的这个盘面来看，债券市场还是表现出了一定的这个股债翘板的影响。 但是，这个在节前的最后一周吧，我觉得市场表现还是比较符合我们此前在 2 月份的推荐。 因为时间也比较久，所以简单给大家回顾一下我们在这个 1 月底的 2 月策略汇报里面，给 大家这个推荐的观点是，2 月份可以去相对积极的布局下半布局上半年的债券市场的一些 交易机会。倒不是说 2 月份我们就会看到比较大的行情的启动，而是从季节性的表现来看， 3~7 月份其实是债券市场全年胜率比较高的一个时间窗口。那么在没有明显的利空扰动， 2 月份收率上行风险可控的一个情况下，我们拿到一定的票息，并且去为三、四月份可能 带来的交易行情做准备，可能是一个比 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market continued its strong performance with major indices rising: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2% to 4166.72 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47% to 14501.5 points, and ChiNext Index up 1.43% to 3355.66 points, with a total trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan [1] - Nearly 4000 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating broad market strength [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Rare earth, phosphorus chemical, shipping, and oil and gas sectors showed strong performance, with lithium mining stocks surging, particularly Dazhong Mining hitting the daily limit [1] - The phosphorus chemical sector remained active, with stocks like Chengxing Co., Huanbang Bio, and Liuguo Chemical achieving consecutive gains [3] - The oil and gas sector continued to strengthen, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 12% and several other companies also seeing significant gains [4] Group 3: Shipping Sector Insights - The shipping sector saw repeated strength, with China Merchants Energy achieving three consecutive daily limits and other shipping companies following suit [5] - The cost of renting very large crude carriers (VLCC) to transport Middle Eastern oil to China surged to $170,000 per day, tripling since the beginning of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in global oil supply dynamics [5] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Securities noted that the inflow of incremental funds and the technical recovery of the market provide a solid foundation for upward movement, although the rate of increase may slow [6] - Dongguan Securities observed that the Shanghai Composite Index showed signs of stabilization above 4100 points, indicating a potential technical recovery [6] - Huatai Securities highlighted the strong performance of technology sectors, particularly in autonomous driving and robotics, suggesting significant mid-term investment value [6]

Inflation and CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value, primarily due to declines in food and energy prices[5] - Core CPI, excluding gold prices, showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.35%, indicating persistent deflationary concerns and insufficient internal demand[6] PPI Trends and Projections - January PPI year-on-year was -1.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value, with new price increase factors turning positive for the first time in 41 months[7] - The PPI decline is mainly driven by upstream mining and raw material sectors, with a projected recovery path dependent on these industries[21] Scenarios for PPI Movement - Scenario one: Upstream prices rise slightly, leading to a mid-year PPI peak followed by minor fluctuations[21] - Scenario two: Upstream prices continue to rise (>10%), resulting in PPI approaching zero or turning positive by mid-year[21] - Scenario three: Upstream prices decline, causing PPI improvements to stagnate and potentially drop again[21] Market Implications - Historical precedents show that when PPI approaches -1%, markets often initiate re-inflation trades, suggesting potential investment opportunities[3] - The current economic environment indicates a structural, upstream-led weak recovery rather than a broad-based demand-driven rebound[22] Risk Factors - Key risks include fluctuations in upstream prices and the possibility that re-inflation may not meet expectations[23]

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare event occurred in the market where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs from E Fund and Jiashi, experienced a collective surge, leading to multiple products hitting the daily limit up. Many of these products announced a suspension of trading starting January 30 [1][9]. Group 1: Performance of LOFs - Several LOFs showed strong performance on January 29, with multiple products quickly reaching the daily limit up during trading, indicating high premium rates. By the end of the day, products such as E Fund Oil LOF, Jiashi Oil LOF, and others had hit the limit up [4]. - The top-performing LOFs included E Fund Oil LOF with a rise of 10.03%, Jiashi Oil LOF at 10.03%, and the Oil Fund LOF at 10.02% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in oil-related LOFs is attributed to a combination of factors, including tight QDII quotas, low subscription limits, and investors utilizing the "offshore subscription + onshore selling" arbitrage mechanism. Additionally, rising international oil prices and heightened risk aversion contributed to the premium of oil LOFs [5][6]. - As of January 29, WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025 [6]. Group 3: Fund Suspension and Adjustments - Following a week of rapid price increases, multiple fund companies announced the suspension of resource-related LOFs starting January 30 to alert the market of potential risks. This includes the suspension of trading for the Oil Fund LOF until 10:30 AM on January 30 [9][10]. - Starting January 30, the daily subscription limit for the Oil Fund LOF was drastically reduced from 100 yuan to 2 yuan, while other resource LOFs also implemented similar restrictions, leading to a scarcity of available quotas for investors [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare market event occurred where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs, experienced a collective surge, with many products hitting the daily limit up [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple LOF products, including Yuanda Oil LOF and Jiashi Oil LOF, achieved significant gains, with several products closing at the daily limit up of 10% [3][5]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025 [7]. - The strong performance of resource LOFs was attributed to high premium rates and a surge in investor interest due to tight QDII quotas and low subscription limits [6][7]. Group 2: Fund Announcements - Several fund companies announced that their resource-related LOFs would be suspended from trading starting January 30, 2026, to alert investors about the risks associated with high premium rates [2][9]. - The announcement included specific funds such as the Yuanda Oil LOF and Jiashi Oil LOF, which will also be suspended until 10:30 AM on January 30 [9][10]. - The suspension is a response to significant deviations between market prices and net asset values, indicating potential risks for investors [9][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors have been utilizing the "offshore subscription + onshore selling" arbitrage mechanism, leading to concentrated inflows into LOF funds [6]. - The tightening of subscription limits for oil LOFs, with the daily single account limit reduced to as low as 2 yuan, has led investors to purchase at higher prices in the secondary market [7][9]. - Analysts warn that if international oil prices decline or if arbitrage funds withdraw, the prices of these funds may quickly revert to net asset values, posing risks for investors who buy at high prices [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The slow rise of the index since mid - December is a pre - emptive pricing driven by funds' forward - looking layout for 2026 investments, with high expectations for the cross - year market. In the short term, the market may be affected by overseas factors such as US geopolitical frictions and re - inflation expectations. If US inflation and the job market remain resilient, the overly optimistic Fed rate - cut expectations may be revised, affecting the domestic technology - growth style. Otherwise, the stock market may continue to rise in a volatile manner [3][11]. - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to be in a state of resonant easing. The US may use re - inflation to resolve its huge debt, and its monetary policy is likely to be loose. In China, the monetary policy focuses on cross - cycle adjustment, and after the Spring Festival, fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in advance, with pro - cyclical styles having potential for a supplementary rise [12]. - The bond market last week was sluggish, with yields on various - term government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future. The bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the official completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the market was volatile, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Market highlights were in commercial space, robotics, and AI application sectors, and most industries declined. The average daily trading volume was 2128.3 billion yuan, an increase of 163.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3][11]. - The US's raid on Venezuela may cause short - term increases in gold and crude oil prices and strengthen the US dollar. In the long term, it may form a long - term negative impact on international oil prices. Chinese asphalt and fuel oil products relying on Venezuelan heavy crude oil face risks of unstable raw material sources [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.04), the bond market was sluggish, with yields on 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future, and the bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.02), the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with different trends for various - term yields. The Fed's December minutes showed a likely 2 - time rate cut in 2026, but short - term employment data boosted the yield curve [14][15]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.49%. In the primary market, 20 REITs were successfully issued in 2025, and 3 new REITs made progress last week [15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry. The formal version has made adjustments to the redemption fees of index funds and bond funds, which is beneficial in the short and long term. It also regulates other fees in the fund sales process to build a transparent, fair, and sustainable industry ecosystem [4][16][19]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [22][23]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [26][27]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [28]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The growth style aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [31]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical) components. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36][37]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [45][46]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [48][49]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [52]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns and strict drawdown control. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [55]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns, and selects 5 funds. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [57]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, selects 10 funds each period, and focuses on fixed - income plus products with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [59]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [63]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [66]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment ratio of more than 60% in the latest period and more than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [68]. - **QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [72]. - **REITs Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the type of underlying assets [74].