Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If the geopolitical conflict persists and supports oil prices at a high level, inflation stickiness expectations may strengthen, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to remain strong, which may suppress the rebound space of precious metals. However, if the slowdown of the US economy is further verified by data, with weak non - farm payroll data and significantly higher CPI inflation, gold prices may benefit from the substantial increase in stagflation risks. In the long - term, central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit still exist, and gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains. The strategy can be short - term wait - and - see and long - term bargain - hunting [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 16.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 17707 yuan/kg, up 218 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 180,953 hands, up 11,870 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 25,923 hands, down 6,769 hands. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 393,515 hands, up 77,112 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,060,304 hands, up 186,734 hands. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 106,644 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 374,427 kg, up 2,628 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1008.75 yuan/gram, up 14.85 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 17,305 yuan/kg, up 157 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.13 yuan/gram, down 1.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 402 yuan/kg, down 61 yuan [2] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1052.70 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,409.46 tons, unchanged. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC are 168,327 contracts, up 8,458 contracts; the non - commercial net long positions of silver in CFTC are 24,673 contracts, up 2,792 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. - The US dollar index is 100.18, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.13%, up 0.05% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index is 31.05, up 3.61; the CBOE gold volatility index is 45.51, up 0.44. - The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.41, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio is 66.44, up 0.21 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. The US vice - president says the US has no intention to stay in Iran. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to be intense and stalemate, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the degree and frequency of air - raids on Tehran increasing. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of the US economic recession due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised it to 30%. - A "weeks - long quick victory" ground - war plan of the US military in Iran is exposed, and the US Department of Defense is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 US troops in the Middle - East. - Trump will submit an annual budget request to the US Congress on April 3, seeking a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in the scale of domestic institutions, with the proposed national security spending possibly reaching up to $1.5 trillion. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.9%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hikes by June is 8.8%, 50 - basis - point hikes is 0.1%, and keeping rates unchanged is 91.1% [2] 6. Key Points to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index - April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment Number - April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI - April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 - April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance - April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market from Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the period up to March 27, 2026 [2] - The report analyzes the precious metals market from aspects including market trends, supply - demand, and macro - data [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market showed a volatile pattern of initial stabilization and then decline. The pricing logic is a repeated game between "geopolitical hedging, re - inflation expectations, and high - interest - rate constraints" [8] - In the short - term, the precious metals market will continue to play out based on the development of the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. Inflation expectations, central bank policies, oil prices, and the US dollar are current major risk factors. In the long - term, gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains [8] - The strategy suggests short - term caution and long - term buying on dips [8] Group 4: Weekly Summary Market Trends - This week, the precious metals market first stabilized and then declined. Geopolitical factors and macro - economic data affected the market. The US - Iran situation caused fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar, and macro - data showed a slowdown in economic sentiment and strong core inflation [8] Future Outlook - The precious metals market will continue to be affected by the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks. If the US economy slows and inflation rises, precious metals may benefit. Otherwise, their rebound space will be limited [8] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was at 17,489 yuan/kg, down 0.77% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was at 998.66 yuan/g, down 3.90% for the week [13] ETF Holdings - As of March 26, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF net position decreased by 0.89% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position increased by 1.50% month - on - month [18] - As of February 2026, European gold ETF investment demand declined, while North American and Asian demand remained strong [19] Net Long Positions - As of March 17, 2026, COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased, with gold down 2.0% and silver down 10.79% [28] Basis and Spread - As of March 26, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week; the internal - external spread of gold and silver narrowed week - on - week [31][34] Inventory Changes - As of March 19, 2026, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while SHFE gold and silver inventories increased [37] Gold - Silver Ratio - As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 64.36, down 1.80% ( - 2.72%) from the previous week [41] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver Industry - As of February 2026, silver ore and concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, while silver imports increased month - on - month [45] - Due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, integrated circuit production continued to rise, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [47] Gold Supply - Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand reaching 2175 tons. Gold ETF net positions increased by 801 tons [53] Silver Supply - Demand - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to increased mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly [55] Group 7: Macro and Options Macro Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to strengthen. As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, up 0.70% week - on - week; the 10Y US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, up 0.16% week - on - week [62] - The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded significantly, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio rebounded [64] Central Bank Gold Buying - Since the beginning of the year, the pace of global central bank gold buying has cooled, but in the long - term, gold as a macro - hedging asset remains attractive. As of the end of February 2026, China's gold reserves reached 74.22 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of January [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on US inflation may not be as significant as the market has priced. The report maintains the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, totaling 50 basis points. The current correction in the US Treasury market provides a configuration window for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [1][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Re-inflation Expectations Drive a Sharp Rise in US Treasury Yields - The conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about re-inflation, causing a rapid increase in US Treasury yields. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the yields of key-term US Treasuries have fully reversed all the gains since the beginning of 2026. The 2-year US Treasury yield has risen to 3.8%, reaching its highest level since July last year. The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has reversed, and it is now expected that the Fed may not cut rates this year and may even raise them [2] - The current tense situation in the Middle East shows no sign of easing. The market is worried that the conflict may last longer, driving up oil prices and strengthening expectations of re-inflation and changes in the monetary policy path. Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks have further increased the pressure on the US Treasury market [4] The Impact of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict on Inflation May Not Be as Large as the Market Pricing - The impact of the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on global inflation may not be as large as the market has priced. The Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a more extensive and long-lasting global inflation shock, while the US-Israel-Iran conflict mainly affects inflation expectations through the shock to global oil and gas supplies caused by the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on global inflation is expected to be more limited in scope and duration compared to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7] - In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale global tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration was illegal, leading to a marginal decline in US tariffs. The subsequent temporary tariffs may face more legal challenges and uncertainties, and the current downward trend in tariffs may offset some of the inflationary impact caused by rising energy prices [8] The Correction in US Treasuries Brings Allocation Opportunities for Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - Due to concerns about re-inflation caused by the oil supply shock and the hawkish tone of the Fed's March interest rate meeting, the interest rate futures market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict at the end of February, the 2-year US Treasury yield has risen by more than 40 basis points to around 3.8% [9] - The correction in the US Treasury market has also led to an adjustment in Chinese dollar-denominated bonds. Since the US-Israel-Iran conflict at the end of February, the Chinese dollar-denominated bond index has significantly declined. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese dollar-denominated bond total return index has fallen by 1.0%, and the yield to maturity has risen by about 38 basis points to 5.13%. The market adjustment provides an allocation opportunity for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures has obvious upward pressure and downward support. The upward pressure mainly comes from the continuous escalation of the US - Iran situation, which triggers the market's re - inflation expectation and risk - aversion sentiment. The downward support is due to the strong demand. The production schedules of battery factories in April and May have been rising month - on - month, driving the release of the purchasing demand for lithium carbonate. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 152,500 yuan, a decrease of 3,000 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 149,500 yuan, a decrease of 3,000 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2611 is 140,880 yuan, with a decline of 7.05%; lithium carbonate 2612 is 142,780 yuan, with a decline of 5.54%; lithium carbonate 2701 is 142,240 yuan, with a decline of 7.04%; lithium carbonate 2702 is 148,940 yuan, with a decline of 0.52%; lithium carbonate 2703 is 147,120 yuan, with a decline of 2.89% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 2,100 yuan, a decrease of 57 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,130 yuan, a decrease of 95 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,625 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 12,300 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 13,350 yuan, a decrease of 275 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 54,140 yuan, a decrease of 730 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 210,550 yuan, a decrease of 1,250 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,250 yuan, a decrease of 700 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 184,900 yuan, a decrease of 750 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan, with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 9,900 yuan, an increase of 4,520 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 680 yuan, a decrease of 440 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 500 yuan, a decrease of 340 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 16,608 tons, an increase of 316 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 46,105 tons, an increase of 458 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 36,160 tons, a decrease of 860 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 34,740 tons, a decrease of 1,029 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 150,779 yuan, and the profit is - 250 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 141,044 yuan, and the profit is 6,289 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upper pressure and lower support of lithium carbonate futures prices are obvious. The upper pressure mainly comes from the continuous heating up of the US - Iran situation, triggering the market's re - inflation expectation and risk - aversion sentiment. The lower support is due to strong demand, with the production schedules of battery factories in April and May rising month - on - month, driving the release of the purchasing demand for lithium carbonate. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 155,500 yuan, with a decrease of 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 152,500 yuan, with a decrease of 2,000 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan [1][2] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2604 is 149,880 yuan, with a decline of 4.74%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 150,120 yuan, with a decline of 4.43%; lithium carbonate 2606 is 150,040 yuan, with a decline of 3.56%; lithium carbonate 2607 is 149,600 yuan, with a decline of 4.52%; lithium carbonate 2608 is 150,000 yuan, with a decline of 4.69% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 2,157 yuan, with a decrease of 28 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,225 yuan, with a decrease of 135 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,800 yuan, with a decrease of 160 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 12,550 yuan, with a decrease of 175 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 13,625 yuan, with a decrease of 200 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 54,870 yuan, with a decrease of 605 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 211,800 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,950 yuan, with a decrease of 800 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 185,650 yuan, with a decrease of 600 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 5,380 yuan, with an increase of 2,700 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan, with a decrease of 360 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, with a decrease of 1,020 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 98,959 tons, with a decrease of 414 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 16,292 tons, with a decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,647 tons, with an increase of 1,890 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 37,020 tons, with a decrease of 1,120 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 35,769 tons, with a decrease of 696 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 154,180 yuan, and the profit is - 680 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 145,659 yuan, and the profit is 4,614 yuan [3] Policy News - The US decided not to impose tariffs on battery materials imported from China, and the US International Trade Commission found that imports did not cause damage to the domestic industry [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market yield trended upward this week, mainly influenced by the decline in broad - money expectations, re - inflation expectations, and the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The 10 - year yield rose to above 1.8%, and short - term bearish disturbances still exist. Attention should be paid to the performance of investment and consumption data, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on inflation expectations, and the allocation of the 10 - year bond after the yield increase. [1][4][5] - Next week, it is necessary to focus on the quality of the first investment and consumption data of the year, the central bank's liquidity support, and the changes in risk - aversion sentiment and imported inflation pressure under the spread of geopolitical conflicts, which may be the main driving factors for the short - term bond market. [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Bond Market: Interest Rates Fluctuated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened - The overall bond market yield increased from March 9th to 13th, affected by the decline in broad - money expectations, re - inflation expectations, and the US - Iran conflict. As of March 13th, the yields of 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y government bonds changed by +8.53BP, +3.33BP, and - 1.00BP respectively, reaching 2.37%, 1.81%, and 1.28%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y changed by +5.20BP and +4.23BP respectively, reaching 55.22BP and 53.75BP. [1][9] - The reasons for the upward movement of the 10Y yield include the disappointment of monetary - policy easing expectations, the better - than - expected export and inflation data, and the intensification of global economic uncertainty due to the Iranian situation, which has disturbed the imported inflation expectations. [1][9] - The daily performance of the bond market from March 9th to 13th was as follows: on March 9th, the yield increased; on March 10th, it fluctuated within a narrow range; on March 11th, there was a differentiation between long - and short - term yields; on March 12th, the yield generally declined; on March 13th, the yield increased across the board. [25][26] 2. Next Week's Outlook and Strategy (1) Bond - Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Performance of Investment and Consumption Data and Changes in Re - inflation Expectations - **Fundamentals**: Production indicators showed mixed performance, with most rebounding. The real - estate transaction volume increased year - on - year, and the price index of the inflation sector was also divided. The crude - oil price continued to rise after turning positive last week. [2][29] - **Production**: The automobile semi - steel tire and blast - furnace operating rates increased by 3.68 and 0.67 percentage points to 77.71% and 78.36% respectively, while the refined PTA operating rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.85%. [29] - **Demand**: Most indicators in the demand side increased, with the year - on - year land transaction volume rising significantly. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities (with one - week lag in data) increased by 419.48% year - on - year, and the passenger - car sales volume increased by 54.38% year - on - year (with four - week lag in data). [35] - **Prices**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.09% month - on - month, and the price index of edible agricultural products increased by 0.5% (with three - week lag in data). The price index of production materials decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (with three - week lag in data), and the year - on - year increase in crude - oil prices expanded to 25.24% after turning positive last week. [41] - **Supply**: From March 9th to 15th, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased. This week, 432 billion yuan of government bonds, 135.545 billion yuan of local bonds, and 847.09 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total increase of 276.751 billion yuan compared to last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 24.6% (including the announced issuance scale for next week), with the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds reaching 23.5% and 30.9% respectively. [2][55] - **Funding**: From March 9th to 13th, the central bank net - withdrew 10.11 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced a 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase on March 16th. The funding situation tightened marginally this week. DR001 and DR007 increased by less than +1BP and +5BP respectively to 1.32% and 1.46%. The yields of 3M and 1Y commercial - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1BP and 2BP respectively to 1.5% and 1.53%. It is expected that the probability of a continuous and systematic tightening of the funding situation is limited, and the funding situation is likely to return to a balanced state after the tax period. [3][61] (2) Bond - Market Strategy: The 10 - Year Bond Yield Returned Above 1.8%, and Short - Term Bearish Disturbances Still Exist - Pay attention to three aspects of changes: the performance of the first complete investment and consumption data of the year, the impact of oil - price fluctuations on imported inflation expectations under the spread of geopolitical conflicts, and the allocation situation of the 10 - year bond after the yield increase. [4][73] - Next week, focus on the following factors: - **Fundamentals**: This week's CPI and import - export data significantly exceeded market expectations, disturbing the bond market. Pay attention to whether the first investment and consumption data for January - February will become new clues for fundamental changes and continuously affect the bond market. [5][73][78] - **External Uncertainty and Imported Inflation**: This week's re - inflation expectations led the bond market to decline slightly. The continuous moderate increase in domestic CPI data and the sharp rise in crude - oil prices due to the Israel - Iran conflict have increased global concerns about imported inflation. If the oil price remains high, there is a risk of a shift from inflation expectations to actual imported inflation, which may lead to significant adjustments in the bond market. [5][78] - **Institutional Behavior**: This week, the bond market adjusted, and the 10 - year bond yield returned above 1.8%. The trading and allocation sentiments changed significantly. Public - offering funds significantly reduced their net holdings by 73.2 billion yuan, while insurance companies increased their holdings by 48.1 billion yuan. The 10 - year bond yield is currently fluctuating around 1.82%, and short - term disturbances still exist. It is expected to fluctuate weakly above 1.8%, and attention should be paid to the allocation value during further adjustments. [5][78] - In general, next week, it is necessary to closely observe the quality of the first investment and consumption data of the year and the evolution of fundamental expectations, as well as the central bank's liquidity support and the changes in risk - aversion sentiment and imported inflation pressure under geopolitical conflicts. The short - term trading value of the 10 - year bond at around 1.82% has emerged. Given the bearish disturbances, attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities brought about by significant adjustments. The short - end yield has limited potential for short - term gains, while the long - end yield has shown trading value, and investors are advised to seize the allocation window. [6][79] 3. Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Financial Calendar - **Open - Market Operations**: The central bank's net - injection (or net - withdrawal) amounts in the past few weeks and the expected net - withdrawal amounts in the next few weeks are provided, including data on reverse - repurchase operations, outright reverse - repurchases, and MLF operations. [80] - **Funding Calendar**: The expected issuance scale of local government bonds, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit, the maturity scale of reverse - repurchases, and whether it is a tax - payment or reserve - payment week from March 16th to 22nd are presented. [80] - **Financial Calendar**: The time and market expectations of various economic indicators to be announced next week, such as February's fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth rate, social - consumer - goods retail sales year - on - year growth rate, and industrial - added - value year - on - year growth rate, are listed. [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shenzhen market generally outperforming the Shanghai market. The four stock index futures also showed differentiation, with only IF rising slightly. The market was greatly affected by overseas geopolitical news. Due to the continuous rise in oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict, global equity assets faced significant callback pressure under the re-inflation expectation, and A-shares were also significantly affected. In addition, this week's domestic inflation and import and export data were released, showing a significant rebound in prices and external demand, and the positive macro fundamentals provided some support to the market. The trading activity in the market decreased slightly compared with last week [9][15]. - The inflation level in China in February exceeded expectations, and the continuous fermentation of the Iran situation strengthened the marginal expectation of imported inflation. The rhythm of the year-on-year return to positive of PPI in the future will accelerate, and the inflation factor will put pressure on the adjustment of the bond market. In addition, under the interbank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism, more than 10 trillion yuan of deposits may see an interest rate cut, which is expected to drive the interest rate center to decline. With the interweaving of long and short factors, interest rates will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9]. - The energy and chemical products and oils rose under the cost support and linkage effect of the rising crude oil, while the non - ferrous metals and precious metals were weakened by the strengthening of the US dollar under the inflation expectation. Since the increase of crude oil and energy and chemical products was greater than that of metals, the commodity index is expected to remain in a relatively strong trend [9]. - The rebound of oil prices led to an increase in inflation concerns. The US dollar maintained a relatively strong operation under the support of risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of US bond yields. The euro was supported by the expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike but was still suppressed by the strong US dollar environment; the Japanese yen was dragged down by policy differences and energy pressure and showed a weak overall performance [9][13]. - China's exports improved more than expected due to the Spring Festival dislocation and the better - than - expected recovery of external demand. In US dollar terms, China's exports from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, far exceeding the Bloomberg expectation of 7.2%. It is expected that China's exports will still maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026, but the year - on - year growth rate in March is expected to decline significantly due to the dislocation effect [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.19%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.18%. The A - share market was affected by overseas geopolitical news, and the trading activity decreased slightly. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year government bond yield rose 0.17%, with a weekly change of +0.30BP, and the main 10 - year government bond futures fell 0.28%. Due to inflation and other factors, the bond market is under adjustment pressure, but the interest rate may decline. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [9]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index fell 2.06%, and the CSI commodity futures price index rose 2.92%. The commodity index is expected to be strong. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.80%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell 0.85%. The US dollar is strong in the short term, the euro is relatively resilient, and the yen is weak. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9][13]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Diplomatic**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's position on the US - Israel's unauthorized military action against Iran, emphasizing the respect for the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Gulf Arab countries [17]. - **Technology and Finance**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued suggestions on preventing the security risks of the "Lobster" open - source intelligent agent, and at least 20 securities firms issued internal compliance reminders [17]. - **Legislation**: In 2026, relevant laws will be formulated and revised in the fields of the socialist market economy and finance, and legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence will be strengthened [17]. - **Stock Market Reform**: The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market, adding a more accurate and inclusive listing standard and promoting a series of measures [17]. - **Geopolitical and Economic**: Trump said the war with Iran would not end this week; the EU warned that the Iran conflict might push the inflation rate above 3% and affect economic growth; the IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves; the US proposed new regulations on AI chip exports [19]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In February, the CPI annual rate was 1.3% (expected 0.8%, previous value 0.2%), the PPI annual rate was - 0.9% (expected - 1.2%, previous value - 1.4%), the export annual rate in US dollars was 39.6%, and the import annual rate in US dollars was 13.8% [20]. - **US**: In February, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.4%, previous value 2.4%), the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.5%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 were 2.13 million (expected 2.15 million, previous value 2.14 million) [20]. - **Germany**: In January, the seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate was - 0.5% (expected 1%, previous value - 1%), the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 21.2 billion euros (expected 15.7 billion euros, previous value 17.2 billion euros), and in February, the CPI monthly rate final value was 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%) [20]. - **France**: In January, the trade balance was - 1.843 billion euros (previous value - 4.298 billion euros) [20]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **March 16, 2026**: At 21:15, the US February industrial output monthly rate (previous value 0.7%) [81]. - **March 17, 2026**: At 18:00, the eurozone March ZEW economic sentiment index (previous value 39.4%); at 22:00, the US February pending home sales index monthly rate (previous value - 0.8%) [81]. - **March 18, 2026**: At 18:00, the eurozone February CPI annual rate final value (previous value 1.9%); at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate (previous value 2.9%) [81]. - **March 19, 2026**: At 00:00, the Japanese central bank target interest rate until March 19 (previous value 0.75%); at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) until March 18 (previous value 3.75%); at 15:00, the UK February unemployment rate (previous value 4.4%); at 20:00, the UK central bank interest rate decision until March 19 (previous value 3.75%); at 21:15, the eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate until March 19 (previous value 2%) [81]. - **March 20, 2026**: At 09:00, China's one - year loan prime rate until March 20 (previous value 3%); at 15:00, the German February PPI monthly rate (previous value - 0.6%) [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shenzhen market generally outperforming the Shanghai market. Among the four stock - index futures, only IF showed a slight increase. The market was significantly affected by overseas geopolitical news. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, causing global equity assets to face significant correction pressure under the re - inflation expectation, and A - shares were also notably affected. Meanwhile, the release of domestic inflation and import - export data this week showed a significant rebound in prices and external demand, and the positive macro - fundamentals provided some support to the market. Market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week. After the conclusion of the Two Sessions, the policy benefits brought by the national Two Sessions to the market have been gradually realized, and the market will shift to the fact - verification stage. Although external shocks have a short - term impact on the domestic market, after the negative impact of rising oil prices is digested, A - shares are still expected to continue the slow - bull market [7][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. IF2603 rose 0.26%, IH2603 fell 1.10%, IC2603 fell 1.31%, and IM2603 fell 0.30%. Among the spot indices, the CSI 300 rose 0.19%, the SSE 50 fell 1.20%, the CSI 500 fell 1.44%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.42% [9] 3.2 News Overview - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month, while PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year and rose 0.4% month - on - month. From January to February 2026, China's total import - export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Iran's Supreme Leader issued a statement, indicating that Iran will not give up revenge and will take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [13] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, the STAR 50 Index fell 2.88%, the SME 100 Index rose 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.51% [16] - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.00%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.20%, the Nikkei 225 fell 3.24%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.13% [17] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined. The national defense and military industry sector weakened significantly, while the coal and power equipment sectors led the gains. Industry main - force funds generally showed a net outflow. The electronics and machinery equipment sectors had a large net outflow of funds, and the basic chemical industry sector had the highest net inflow [21][25] - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed a differentiated performance, and the capital market was slightly looser [29] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.221 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted - share unlocking was 55.839 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 1.257577 trillion yuan. The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts fluctuated [32][40][44] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to shift to the fact - verification stage after the policy benefits of the Two Sessions are realized. Although external shocks have a short - term impact on the domestic market, after the negative impact of rising oil prices is digested, A - shares are still expected to continue the slow - bull market [95]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - A-share major indices closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Over 4,500 stocks rose across the market. Industry sectors generally rose, with the communication and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector weakening significantly. Overseas, US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, causing US oil prices to plunge. The fall in oil prices provided a buffer for the market, but the risk of a subsequent oil price increase remains. Domestically, in February, China's CPI rose significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the decline in PPI narrowed. The PPI-CPI gap widened, suggesting a possible decline in CPI growth. In the first two months of 2026, China's import and export trade improved significantly, and external demand may support GDP. The government's work report lowered the economic growth target for 2026 compared to 2025, but the industrial policy indicates a shift towards high-quality development. The fiscal policy is more proactive than in 2025. Overall, as the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on reflation expectations is gradually digested, the Two Sessions have become the focus of the market. The support for the high-tech manufacturing industry in the government's work report has led to a significant increase in related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy has strengthened the market's expectation of policy support for the economy. As external conflicts fade, the market refocuses on the domestic market, and the stable and improving fundamentals provide support for the market. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of all major and secondary futures contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 holders of IF and IM decreased, while those of IH and IC increased. [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The basis of the main contracts of IF and IH increased, while that of IC and IM decreased. [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: The A-share trading volume decreased, while the margin trading balance increased. [2] - **Northbound Trading and Repurchase**: The northbound trading volume increased, and the repurchase operation volume increased. [2] - **Main Funds and MLF**: The net outflow of main funds decreased, and no information on MLF was provided. [2] - **Stock Price Increase Ratio and Shibor**: The ratio of rising stocks increased, and the Shibor rate decreased. [2] - **Option Prices and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at-the-money call option increased, and its implied volatility decreased. The closing price of the IO at-the-money put option decreased, and its implied volatility also decreased. The 20-day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased, the trading volume PCR decreased, and the position PCR increased. [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A-share market showed strength in terms of technology and capital. [2] Industry News - US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, and he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz. [2] - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, and the PPI fell 0.9% year-on-year and rose 0.4% month-on-month. [2] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. [2] Key Events to Watch - March 4 - 11: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference [3] - March 5 - 12: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress [3] - TBD: China's February financial data [3] - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI and core CPI [3] - March 12, 20:30: US January trade data [3] - March 13, 20:30: US February PCE and core PCE [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to overweight A-shares, H-shares, gold, crude oil, and industrial commodities due to the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East and rising concerns about global re-inflation [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-shares and H-shares - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares. The broad deficit is expected to expand further, and economic policies are likely to become more proactive as 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The stability and appreciation of the RMB, along with a moderately easing monetary policy, will support this outlook [1]. - The recommendation to overweight H-shares is based on stable expectations for China's macro policies and capital market reforms, which enhance market risk appetite. The decline in the risk-free interest rate in mainland China and the easing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy will also contribute to stable liquidity in Hong Kong [1]. Group 2: Gold and Crude Oil - The article suggests an overweight position in gold due to the accelerated restructuring of global order and deteriorating geopolitical conditions. The U.S. government's actions have significantly weakened its international credibility, making safety a scarce resource, with gold serving as a tangible hedge against uncertainty. Continuous purchases of gold by large asset management institutions and central banks will support long-term gold prices, despite potential short-term volatility from speculative funds [2]. - An overweight recommendation for crude oil is made in light of the rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is expected to provide a temporary boost to oil prices, despite relatively weak global oil demand and fluctuating OPEC+ production policies [2]. Group 3: Industrial Commodities - The article recommends an overweight position in industrial commodities, particularly copper, due to an upward revision in demand driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles. The expansion of AI computing power and modernization of power grids will create additional structural demand. The rising development costs and complexity of copper extraction may lead to a temporary increase in copper prices, making industrial commodities comparatively more attractive in terms of risk-return profile [3].