固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025，债券资产重估之年 证券研究报告 利率专题 宏观叙事变化下的债券资产重估 风险提示：政策不确定性；基本面变化超预期；海外地缘政治风险。 今年以来，市场交易范式在发生新的变化，且在突破原有的分析框架，从 2024 年单边牛市格局切换为持续的宽幅震荡格局，每个阶段的主导因素不 同，一季度债市"负 carry"主导，利率震荡回调，曲线熊平，二季度关税 扰动和货币宽松预期下债市阶段性修复，再到三季度以来风险偏好切换和 基金费率新规征求意见，利率波动上行，债券资产迎来全面的价值重估。 三季度以来，偏弱的基本面和偏松的资金面似乎难以解释债市波动调整， 主导因素则是由机构行为和资金流动驱动的"资产再配置"逻辑，叠加"反 内卷"政策下的"再通胀"预期，一定程度指向当前债市的宏观叙事基础 发生了一定变化，债市定价逻辑便也在发生着微妙的转变，债券似乎变成 了重定价的"弱势资产"。 （1）利率债的"三重"重估：一是利率的明显回调，三季度以来债市情绪 整体承压，长端和超长端收益率明显上行。二是期限利差的走阔，10 年-1 年、30 年-10 年国债期限利差均在走阔，曲线向熊陡状态演绎。三是品种 利 ...

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800, and a notable decline in the brokerage sector, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the end of the bull market in China's stock market is typically not due to high valuations but rather sudden policy shocks, and unless there is a clear speculative bubble, the likelihood of policy actively suppressing the market is low [3][8]. - The article discusses the reasons behind the recent rise in the Chinese stock market, including expectations of economic recovery and advancements in AI, as well as improved Sino-U.S. relations and a rebound in Hong Kong IPOs [5]. Group 2 - The current bull market in China is characterized as different from other markets, with the Chinese stock market still below its 2021 highs, suggesting room for valuation increases [6]. - The foundation for a "slow bull" market in A-shares appears stronger than ever, driven by market reforms, the introduction of long-term capital, and stricter leverage regulations [7]. - Historical analysis indicates that valuation changes have been the primary driver of returns in bull markets, contributing approximately 80% of realized gains, with current valuations still below historical bull market peaks [7]. Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has developed a new "stock market policy barometer" to monitor policy risks, which currently indicates low levels of policy tightening risk for the stock market [8]. - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [9][10]. - The article notes that since 2020, households have accumulated substantial savings, with over 80 trillion yuan in new deposits, and a shift in asset allocation could lead to trillions flowing into the stock market [10]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of the brokerage sector as a leverage amplifier for the market, suggesting that investors should consider accumulating shares during market corrections to benefit from future rallies [12].

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 今年以来，中国股市高歌猛进，持续吸引着全球投资者的目光。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Kinger Lau、Si Fu等在最新发布的研报中指出， 一场由流动性驱动的牛市正在中国股市展开，"再通胀"预期和AI自主化发展 是推动此轮上涨的关键催化因素。 报告明确指出，与市场普遍认为此轮涨势由散户推动的看法不同，数据显示， 中国本土和海外的机构投资者一直是本轮反弹的关键资金提供方。 数据表明， 对冲基金、合格境外机构投资者（QFII）以及国内公募基金和保险公司等机构，均在此轮行情中积极增加了股票仓位。 在牛市的可持续性问题上，高盛认为，盈利改善有助于延长涨势，但并非进一步估值驱动上涨的"约束性条件"， 目前沪深300指数的预期市盈率仍低于历史牛 市的估值上限。 基于此轮行情由流动性主导的判断， 高盛重申对A股和H股的"增持"评级，并预测未来12个月二者分别有8%和3%的上涨空间。 流动性推动估值重估，中国股市"后来者居上" 高盛报告认为，由流动性推动、估值驱动的股市繁荣并非中国独有，而是一种全球现象。 再通胀预期与AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI development as key catalysts for the recent surge [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 300 index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [2] - The current expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for MSCI China and CSI 300 are 13.5x and 14.7x, respectively, still below historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20x [10] Group 2: Institutional Investors - Institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, have played a crucial role in the current market rally, with domestic public funds reducing cash ratios to a five-year low and insurance companies increasing stock holdings by 26% [9] - Foreign investment in A-shares has reached cyclical highs, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow into A-shares in recent years [9] Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The market is driven by expectations of improved pricing environments and supply-side rationalization policies, leading to a re-inflation trade [2] - The report indicates that the current bull market is supported by fundamental factors, with normalized profit growth projected for listed companies between 2025-2027 [6] Group 4: Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation heavily favors real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [13] - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to levels seen in emerging or developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan [13] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Risks - Current market sentiment indicates a short-term consolidation risk rather than an imminent reversal of the bull market trend, with the sentiment indicator reading at 1.3 [12] - The report emphasizes that historical reversals of bull markets are typically driven by policy shocks rather than high valuations [12] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market, advocating for a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly in sectors like AI, consumer services, and technology [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices continue to reach new highs, with the COMEX gold futures contract rising by 2.97% to $3118 per ounce as of March 28. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.2% to 931.94 tons. Concerns about re-inflation in the U.S. are growing, with the core PCE in February at 2.79% year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, indicating continued economic activity. The expectation is for gold prices to remain strong in the medium to long term due to persistent re-inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: The demand season is starting, and there is a focus on the rising prices of metals driven by supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, with significant increases noted in both futures and ETF holdings. The market is experiencing inflation concerns, which are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4][13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of March 28, SHFE copper futures fell by 0.2% to 80,450 CNY/ton. Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11,900 tons to 334,500 tons. The demand is expected to recover as downstream operations resume. Supply disruptions are anticipated due to the suspension of operations at Glencore's Altonorte copper smelter, which has an annual capacity of 350,000 tons. The expectation is for copper prices to gradually rise due to tightening supply and increasing demand [6][8]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum futures fell by 0.6% to 20,580 CNY/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory is at 802,000 tons, with demand recovering as downstream operations resume. The upcoming bidding for power grid projects is expected to increase orders, particularly for aluminum cables. The expectation is for aluminum prices to rise in the second quarter due to strong demand [6][8]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin futures rose by 2.22% to 282,290 CNY/ton. Domestic tin social inventory increased by 934 tons to 11,482 tons. The supply of tin is expected to tighten due to production issues at the Bisie mine. The demand is anticipated to recover as the semiconductor sector improves, leading to a potential increase in tin prices [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. For copper, the recommendation is to pay attention to Zijin Mining due to recovering domestic demand and tightening supply. For aluminum, Tianshan Co. is recommended as prices are expected to rise. For tin, attention is drawn to Xiyang Co. due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from AI applications [8][70].