·法兴银行：日本中性利率或小幅上移，但政策区间下限难言显著上调 ·摩根士丹利：若欧央行维持利率不变，欧元兑美元或于2026年二季度触及1.30 ·德意志银行：英国经济恐迎2023年以来首次季度环比收缩 ·瑞银资管：再通胀预期升温或引发2026年美债抛售，推动期限利差走阔 【机构分析】 ·摩根士丹利策略师称，若欧洲央行2026年维持利率不变，叠加美联储降息预期，欧元兑美元有望在第 二季度升至1.30，为2014年以来最高。即便欧央行降息50基点，欧元仍可能达1.23。 ·橡树资本联合创始人警告，当前回报环境已趋于温和，若美联储进一步大幅降息，将推高市场对"央行 兜底"的预期，诱使投资者承担过度风险以追逐高收益，这种行为"并不明智"。美联储应仅在经济严重 过热或深度衰退时干预，而当前既无恶性通胀也未陷入就业危机，不具备紧急宽松条件。他认为利 率"比当前再低很多并无意义"，政策应保持被动与审慎。 ·Quilter投资策略师指出，英国10月GDP环比萎缩0.1%，凸显经济脆弱性；叠加11月预算案缺乏有效支 持，预计未来数月增长将持续承压，与欧洲整体上调增长预期形成鲜明对比。 ·德意志银行表示，受预算不确定性、服务业萎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between gold prices and the Nasdaq index has increased since November, raising concerns about deeper underlying risks, despite liquidity shocks in the money market not being the primary cause [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since November, gold and Nasdaq have shown multiple instances of simultaneous increases and decreases, indicating a rising correlation between a risk asset and a safe-haven asset [2][3]. - For example, on November 4, the Nasdaq fell by 2% while gold dropped by 1.8%, and on November 10, the Nasdaq rose by 2.3% alongside a 2.8% increase in gold [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The tightening of the money market and rising funding rates are not likely the main reasons for the observed trends, as liquidity pressures have eased following the resolution of government shutdowns [6][10]. - The underlying driver appears to be concerns over Federal Reserve tightening amid recovery expectations, which often leads to unified movements in major asset classes [7][10]. Group 3: Historical Context - An analysis of the correlation between gold and the Nasdaq throughout the year reveals that their relationship has fluctuated based on economic conditions and Federal Reserve expectations [8]. - In early 2023, trade tensions and recession fears led to a divergence between gold and Nasdaq, while in the third quarter, both benefited from lower interest rate expectations, resulting in increased correlation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent simultaneous movements of gold and Nasdaq may not indicate a deeper liquidity crisis, and such trends may not persist long-term [10]. - Future attention should be directed towards fundamental data; if improvements are confirmed, gold prices may face upward resistance while overall risks in the U.S. stock market remain low [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, the bond market has shifted from a unilateral bull market in 2024 to a continuous wide - range oscillation pattern. Since the third quarter, due to factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect, and the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the bond market has experienced overall value re - evaluation. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there are both positive and negative factors in the bond market, and it is expected to show an oscillatory pattern with limited trend - based market opportunities [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - narrative Changes and the Re - evaluation of Bond Assets - **Overall Market Change**: The bond market has shifted from a unilateral bull market in 2024 to a wide - range oscillation pattern. Since the third quarter, influenced by factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, bond market interest rates have fluctuated upwards, and bond assets have undergone comprehensive value re - evaluation. As of October 20, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds have all increased compared to the beginning of the year [9]. - **Deviation from Fundamental and Liquidity**: In the third quarter, the weak fundamentals and loose liquidity could not explain the bond market's fluctuations. The bond market was mainly driven by the "asset re - allocation" logic and the "re - inflation" expectation under the "anti - involution" policy. Regulatory policies also had an impact on the bond market [11]. - **Investor Behavior Change**: Since the third quarter, both residents and institutions have adjusted their asset allocation, reducing the proportion of bond assets and increasing the allocation of equity assets. This has had an impact on the bond market's capital supply [12]. 3.2 "Triple" Re - evaluation of Interest - rate Bonds - **Obvious Interest Rate Callback**: Since the third quarter, affected by policies and regulatory changes, the bond market sentiment has been under pressure, and the yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds have increased significantly. As of October 20, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields are at relatively high levels in 2025 [17]. - **Widening of Term Spreads**: The term spreads of 10 - year - 1 - year and 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bonds have widened, and the yield curve has evolved towards a bear - steep state [18]. - **Increase in Variety Spreads**: The 10 - year China Development Bank bond - treasury bond spread has been re - evaluated. Under the influence of the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the redemption pressure of bond funds may increase, and the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds may widen [23]. 3.3 Differentiation and Remodeling of Credit Spreads - **Relatively Resistant Short - term Credit**: Short - term credit bonds are relatively resistant to decline. The yield increase of medium - and short - term general credit bonds is mostly within 10BP, and the credit spread has slightly narrowed [25]. - **Re - emergence of the "Interest Rate Amplifier" Attribute of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds**: The yields of long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have increased significantly, and the current credit spread quantile is above 90% [25]. - **Value Remodeling of Long - term General Credit Bonds**: Under the influence of the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the demand for long - term general credit bonds is weak, and the adjustment range of ultra - long - term credit bonds is relatively large [25]. 3.4 High Premium Rate in the Convertible Bond Market - **Overall High Value in the Third Quarter**: In the context of the overall re - evaluation of the bond market, the valuation system of convertible bonds is also being remodeled, and their value in the third quarter is at a relatively high historical level [27]. - **Stable Average Pure Bond Value and Rising Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The pure bond value of the convertible bond market in the third quarter has remained stable, while the pure bond premium rate has risen, indicating that the equity nature of convertible bonds is stronger than the bond nature [27]. - **Increased Average Conversion Value and Relatively High Conversion Premium Rate**: The average conversion value of the whole market has increased, and the conversion premium rate is at a relatively high historical level [28]. 3.5 Tariff Hedging vs. Macro - narrative: Which Will Prevail? - **Fourth - quarter Bond Market Review**: In October, the bond market usually fluctuates greatly, and it is an important window for the introduction of fourth - quarter growth - stabilization and credit - easing policies. From November to December, the bond market usually enters a repair period [38]. - **Positive Factors for the Bond Market**: Tariff disturbances may bring hedging sentiment and easing expectations; the policy effect in the fourth quarter may weaken, and economic growth may slow down; the capital market is balanced and stable, and the central bank's supportive attitude remains; the bond market odds have improved, and the attractiveness to allocation - type funds may increase [3][41]. - **Negative Factors for the Bond Market**: The implementation of the fund sales fee rate reform may trigger redemption and position - adjustment behaviors; the "re - inflation" expectation and macro - narrative changes under the "anti - involution" policy may have a long - term impact on the bond market [3]. - **Outlook for the Bond Market**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to show an oscillatory pattern with a trading range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield between 1.7% - 1.9%. However, due to various factors, it is difficult to have a trend - based market [48].

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800, and a notable decline in the brokerage sector, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the end of the bull market in China's stock market is typically not due to high valuations but rather sudden policy shocks, and unless there is a clear speculative bubble, the likelihood of policy actively suppressing the market is low [3][8]. - The article discusses the reasons behind the recent rise in the Chinese stock market, including expectations of economic recovery and advancements in AI, as well as improved Sino-U.S. relations and a rebound in Hong Kong IPOs [5]. Group 2 - The current bull market in China is characterized as different from other markets, with the Chinese stock market still below its 2021 highs, suggesting room for valuation increases [6]. - The foundation for a "slow bull" market in A-shares appears stronger than ever, driven by market reforms, the introduction of long-term capital, and stricter leverage regulations [7]. - Historical analysis indicates that valuation changes have been the primary driver of returns in bull markets, contributing approximately 80% of realized gains, with current valuations still below historical bull market peaks [7]. Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has developed a new "stock market policy barometer" to monitor policy risks, which currently indicates low levels of policy tightening risk for the stock market [8]. - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [9][10]. - The article notes that since 2020, households have accumulated substantial savings, with over 80 trillion yuan in new deposits, and a shift in asset allocation could lead to trillions flowing into the stock market [10]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of the brokerage sector as a leverage amplifier for the market, suggesting that investors should consider accumulating shares during market corrections to benefit from future rallies [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI autonomy development as key catalysts for the recent surge [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bull market began in late January and has been supported by various factors, including the "DeepSeek moment," a private enterprise symposium, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. The CSI 300 index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [4]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards re-inflation trading, driven by expectations of improved pricing environments and supply-side rationalization policies. Since July 1, the 10-year government bond yield has risen by 16 basis points, indicating a rotation of funds from the bond market to the stock market [4]. Group 2: Institutional Investors - Contrary to the belief that retail investors are driving the market, institutional investors are playing a crucial role. Domestic public funds have significantly increased their stock exposure, with cash ratios in portfolios at a five-year low. Insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year, and private fund management has grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [8][9]. - Foreign investors are also increasingly participating in the Chinese stock market, particularly in A-shares, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow in recent years in August [8]. Group 3: Valuation and Sustainability - The sustainability of the bull market is supported by improving earnings, but further valuation-driven increases are not a necessary condition. Historical analysis shows that changes in price-to-earnings ratios have been the primary driver of returns during bull markets, contributing approximately 80% of realized gains [10][11]. - The current expected P/E ratios for MSCI China and CSI 300 are 13.5x and 14.7x, respectively, which are still below the historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20x [11]. Group 4: Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market. Currently, household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate (55%) and cash deposits (27%), with stocks (including public funds) only accounting for 11%. As the real estate market adjusts, trillions of RMB are expected to gradually shift towards the stock market [17]. - If the institutional holding ratio in A-shares increases to the average levels of emerging (50%) or developed markets (59%), it could lead to potential inflows of 14 trillion RMB or 30 trillion RMB, respectively [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The company maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market and supports a buy-on-dips strategy. Key investment themes include AI, anti-involution, and shareholder returns, with a continued positive outlook on sectors such as telecommunications, media and technology (TMT), consumer services, insurance, and materials [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI development as key catalysts for the recent surge [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 300 index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [2] - The current expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for MSCI China and CSI 300 are 13.5x and 14.7x, respectively, still below historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20x [10] Group 2: Institutional Investors - Institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, have played a crucial role in the current market rally, with domestic public funds reducing cash ratios to a five-year low and insurance companies increasing stock holdings by 26% [9] - Foreign investment in A-shares has reached cyclical highs, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow into A-shares in recent years [9] Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The market is driven by expectations of improved pricing environments and supply-side rationalization policies, leading to a re-inflation trade [2] - The report indicates that the current bull market is supported by fundamental factors, with normalized profit growth projected for listed companies between 2025-2027 [6] Group 4: Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation heavily favors real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [13] - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to levels seen in emerging or developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan [13] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Risks - Current market sentiment indicates a short-term consolidation risk rather than an imminent reversal of the bull market trend, with the sentiment indicator reading at 1.3 [12] - The report emphasizes that historical reversals of bull markets are typically driven by policy shocks rather than high valuations [12] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market, advocating for a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly in sectors like AI, consumer services, and technology [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices continue to reach new highs, with the COMEX gold futures contract rising by 2.97% to $3118 per ounce as of March 28. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.2% to 931.94 tons. Concerns about re-inflation in the U.S. are growing, with the core PCE in February at 2.79% year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, indicating continued economic activity. The expectation is for gold prices to remain strong in the medium to long term due to persistent re-inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: The demand season is starting, and there is a focus on the rising prices of metals driven by supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, with significant increases noted in both futures and ETF holdings. The market is experiencing inflation concerns, which are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4][13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of March 28, SHFE copper futures fell by 0.2% to 80,450 CNY/ton. Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11,900 tons to 334,500 tons. The demand is expected to recover as downstream operations resume. Supply disruptions are anticipated due to the suspension of operations at Glencore's Altonorte copper smelter, which has an annual capacity of 350,000 tons. The expectation is for copper prices to gradually rise due to tightening supply and increasing demand [6][8]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum futures fell by 0.6% to 20,580 CNY/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory is at 802,000 tons, with demand recovering as downstream operations resume. The upcoming bidding for power grid projects is expected to increase orders, particularly for aluminum cables. The expectation is for aluminum prices to rise in the second quarter due to strong demand [6][8]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin futures rose by 2.22% to 282,290 CNY/ton. Domestic tin social inventory increased by 934 tons to 11,482 tons. The supply of tin is expected to tighten due to production issues at the Bisie mine. The demand is anticipated to recover as the semiconductor sector improves, leading to a potential increase in tin prices [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. For copper, the recommendation is to pay attention to Zijin Mining due to recovering domestic demand and tightening supply. For aluminum, Tianshan Co. is recommended as prices are expected to rise. For tin, attention is drawn to Xiyang Co. due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from AI applications [8][70].