Market Performance - Despite political upheaval, AI fears, and economic uncertainty, 2025 has been a strong year for markets [1] - The report questions whether this market strength can continue into 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The ASX index saw significant returns in 2025, driven primarily by materials, industrials, and telecommunications sectors, with commodities, infrastructure, and connectivity playing key roles in the rally [1] Materials Sector - The materials sector led the ASX with a remarkable 27% gain, primarily driven by gold and critical minerals rather than traditional iron ore [2][3] - Gold prices surged approximately 60% in 2025, with notable performances from Evolution Mining Ltd, which rose 160%, and Newmont Corporation, which increased by 149% [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths led to a 97% increase in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, reflecting the sector's role in defense, electrification, and clean energy [5][6] Industrials Sector - The industrials sector achieved a solid 9% return, supported by high-quality businesses such as Transurban Group, which benefited from resilient traffic volumes and inflation-linked tolls [9] - Brambles Limited saw an 18% increase, leveraging its global pallet pool amid steady demand for consumer staples and e-commerce [9] - ALS Ltd rose 44%, driven by demand for testing and inspection services across various markets [10] Telecommunications Sector - The telecommunications sector combined defensive income with growth, achieving an 8% return in 2025 [2][13] - Telstra Corporation Ltd gained 21% as it raised prices across services while maintaining cost control, solidifying its position as a defensive stock [14] - Aussie Broadband Ltd stood out with a 42% increase, expanding its market share and transitioning into a national player [15] - Tuas Ltd experienced an 11% rise, benefiting from offshore growth in Singapore with its low-cost mobile offerings [16] Future Outlook - The performance of these sectors in 2026 will be influenced by commodity prices and interest rates, alongside macroeconomic factors [18] - Long-term success will depend on disciplined investment in high-quality businesses that can grow earnings and maintain strong balance sheets [19]

Market Overview - November experienced a significant late-month rally, transforming initial market fears into a strong comeback story, showcasing resilience despite early selling pressure [2][6][10] - The broader market showed strength, with almost all major indices closing higher for the month, defying expectations of a potential correction [10][20] AI Sector Impact - The sell-off in early November was triggered by Palantir Technologies' quarterly results, which, while good, raised concerns about AI valuations, leading to a broader decline in AI-linked stocks [3][4][5] - Following Palantir's report, other high-priced AI stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft also faced selling pressure, contributing to a temporary downturn in the technology sector [5][6] Market Resilience - Despite fears of an "AI bubble" and valuation resets, the market demonstrated resilience, with a strong rally in the last trading days of November [7][20] - The rally was attributed to various factors, including easing Treasury yields and improving technical conditions, but most importantly, it reflected the underlying demand for equities [9][20] Sector Rotation - November highlighted a rotation in market leadership, with cyclicals and value stocks gaining traction as tech stocks paused [17][18] - Financials, healthcare, and energy sectors saw renewed interest, while smaller-cap stocks also rebounded, indicating a healthier market tone [17][18] Technical Observations - The Nasdaq 100's failure to close positively in November raised questions, as it had been a leader in previous months, suggesting a potential "Great Mini Rotation" where the index took a breather while other sectors advanced [11][12][18] - Some analysts noted the potential formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern in the Nasdaq 100, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics if confirmed [13][20] Future Outlook - Heading into December, the market momentum appears strong, with expectations of Fed rate cuts and the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" effect potentially supporting further gains [19][20] - The broader market's ability to hold firm amidst uncertainty suggests a strong underlying strength, with bulls remaining in control as long as November's lows are maintained [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase anticipates that retail investors will continue to drive stock purchases, maintaining momentum into 2026, despite warnings from institutional investors about potential market bubbles [1][5][6]. Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors have demonstrated strong momentum, investing nearly $160 billion into stock-based ETFs in September and October [1][5]. - The pace of stock inflows is the fastest since the post-election surge of late last year, with individual investors seemingly unconcerned about warnings from hedge funds and pension managers regarding market valuations [2][5]. Market Trends - Retail investors are actively buying on dips and pursuing gains, contributing to a sustained market rally [3][5]. - Historical trends suggest that December and the first quarter typically see above-average ETF and retail flows, supporting the expectation of continued investment enthusiasm [6]. ETF Inflows - U.S.-listed ETFs experienced record inflows of $175.6 billion in October, with September also seeing significant inflows of $141.2 billion [7]. - Year-to-date ETF inflows surpassed $1 trillion by mid-October, with projections indicating a potential $1.4 trillion for 2025 [7]. Institutional Investor Sentiment - Despite the retail investment surge, institutional investors remain cautious, with some fund managers opting to move to the sidelines [8].