Core Insights - 2026 has been a challenging year for U.S. stocks due to various bearish factors including the escalating war in Iran, rising oil prices, a fragile macroeconomy, and potential disruptions from AI [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Investors are facing multiple headwinds that are negatively impacting consumer stocks [1] - The combination of geopolitical tensions and economic instability is creating a difficult environment for stock performance [1] Group 2: Industry Expertise - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry trends [1] - His contributions to Seeking Alpha since 2017 highlight his engagement with investment themes relevant to the technology sector [1]

Market Overview - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 could drop to 6,300 by early April 2026, citing current market concerns similar to last year, including AI disruptions and issues with private credit, with the Iran war acting as a catalyst for the reset [2][3] Company Insights Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NU) - Nu Holdings Ltd. has appointed Kim Farrell as Global Marketing Director to enhance international growth and branding efforts [7][8] - The company operates as Nubank, a major digital banking platform primarily in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, offering low-fee financial products to underserved consumers [9] Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) - Analysts at Morgan Stanley express bullish sentiment on Vistra Corp., with a Buy rating and a price target of $215, driven by the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [10] - The firm notes that the demand for computing power is expected to outpace supply, benefiting companies like Vistra that provide key technologies and infrastructure [11][12] - Vistra Corp. has a diverse power generation portfolio of 44,000 megawatts, including nuclear, coal, solar, and gas sources [13]

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to significant disruptions in oil production, with the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait joining Iraq in reducing output as storage capacities are reached, causing Brent crude prices to rise by approximately 30% last week, marking the largest increase in six years and pushing prices above $90 per barrel [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Global investors are preparing for increased market volatility as trading resumes, with the dollar strengthening against major currencies due to its safe-haven status amid the crisis [2]. - The geopolitical tensions have resulted in widespread selling across various regions and asset classes, with the S&P 500 experiencing its largest weekly loss since October and emerging-market equities facing their most significant decline since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The conflict has exacerbated existing pressures on markets already affected by AI disruptions and concerns regarding potential weaknesses in credit markets, leading to a notable drop in US bonds [5]. - Despite inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, traders had begun to adjust their expectations for interest rate cuts, with the war prompting some to speculate on no cuts in 2026, although a weak US employment report has shifted consensus back towards anticipating potential cuts this year [6].

Market Overview - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the official cash rate to 3.85%, marking the first rate hike in over two years [2] - ASX 200 futures indicate a potential 40-point decline for Australian shares following the RBA's decision [1] - Wall Street's tech sector has faced a selloff, with the Nasdaq dropping as much as 1.4% due to concerns over potential AI disruptions [2] Company News - Resource Minister Madeleine King has warned that China's pause on rare earth controls may not last, impacting miners like BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) [5] - Rio Tinto's Australian listing has decreased nearly 2% amid Glencore merger discussions, while its London listing has increased by 9% [5] - Credit Corp (ASX:CCP) CEO Thomas Beregi stated that the company's bid for Humm Group (ASX:HUM) is not expected to be made public until finalized [6] - Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1) reported a net loss of NZ$82 million for the six months ending January 31 due to manufacturing issues [6] - Amcor Plc (ASX:AMC) is set to announce its earnings to shareholders today [6] Commodity and Forex Updates - The Australian dollar has risen above US 70 cents [7] - Iron ore prices are stable at $102.80 per tonne in Singapore [7] - Brent crude oil has increased by 3% to $68.08 per barrel [7] - Gold prices have surged to $5,054 per ounce [7] - US natural gas futures have risen by 4.2% to $3.37 per gigajoule [8]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for Q4 2025, with the Large Cap Composite returning -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD, and the All-Cap Composite returning 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD, despite overvalued markets [1] Investment Performance - The Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD, while the Focus Composite (Net) and Focus Plus Composite (Net) both returned 0.1% in Q4, with YTD returns of 7.1% and 6.2% respectively [1] - The firm emphasized a focus on safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] Company Specifics - Vulcan Value Partners exited its holdings in SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SSNC) during Q4 2025, which had a one-month return of -4.23% and a 52-week gain of 7.31% [2] - As of January 22, 2026, SS&C Technologies had a market capitalization of $20.961 billion, with shares closing at $85.83 [2] Investment Rationale - The company had initially invested in SS&C Technologies in the summer of 2023, anticipating positive outcomes from its investments in sales, marketing, and product development [3] - SS&C Technologies exceeded expectations in organic revenue growth, margins, and free cash flow, leading Vulcan Value Partners to sell its position and reallocate to more attractive opportunities [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its strategies for the year, with the All-Cap Composite returning 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD, despite overvalued markets [1] - The firm emphasizes safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dot-com bubble and current AI disruptions [1] Company Highlights: CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) - CarMax, Inc. was added to Vulcan's All-Cap Strategy, with a one-month return of 21.80% and a 52-week loss of 42.19%, closing at $47.83 per share with a market cap of $5.826 billion [2] - CarMax is the largest used car retailer in the U.S. and has faced underperformance due to macroeconomic, competitive, and operational factors, including a depressed used car supply and increased competition from Carvana [3] - Despite competitive pressures, CarMax's customer experience, brand strength, scale, vertical integration, and omnichannel approach are seen as competitive advantages that will help it gain market share in a fragmented market [3] - The company is making operational changes to increase volumes, lower costs, and expand profitability, with expectations of a recovery in earnings as the used car market normalizes [3] - CarMax has a solid balance sheet, generates significant free cash flow, and is actively buying back shares at a discount to intrinsic value [3]

Group 1: Investment Performance - Vulcan Value Partners' strategies delivered positive results in 2025, with the Large Cap Composite returning -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD, and the Small Cap Composite gaining 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD [1] - The Focus Composite and Focus Plus Composite both returned 0.1% in Q4, with YTD returns of 7.1% and 6.2% respectively, while the All-Cap Composite returned 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD [1] Group 2: Market Context and Strategy - Despite overvalued markets, the firm improved its price-to-value ratios, prioritizing safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] - The firm is maintaining its investment discipline in light of potential overvaluation in AI-related businesses [1] Group 3: Company Focus - Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. - Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. is a specialty products and solutions provider for insurance brokers, with shares trading between $48.90 and $77.16 over the past 52 weeks, closing at $50.40 on January 22, 2026 [2] - The company generates approximately 55% of its revenue from brokerage and 45% from delegated authority businesses, with the excess and surplus brokerage market representing 26% of commercial property and casualty premiums [3] - The excess and surplus market has grown at an 11% CAGR over the past 25 years, while the admitted market has grown at a 4% CAGR, indicating a favorable growth outlook for Ryan Specialty [3] - Ryan Specialty's delegated authority business does not retain balance sheet risk, and the company has experienced organic growth at a double-digit rate for the past 15 years [3] - Current pricing headwinds in the commercial property sector are viewed as a short-term issue, with the stock price currently below its long-term intrinsic value, presenting an investment opportunity [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for the year, with varying returns in Q4 2025 and year-to-date (YTD) performance [1] - The firm emphasized a focus on safety and long-term gains, despite the overvalued market conditions reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] - Vulcan Value Partners maintains a disciplined investment approach, aiming to improve price-to-value ratios while navigating current market challenges [1] Performance Summary - The Large Cap Composite (Net) returned -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD - The Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD - The Focus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 7.1% YTD - The Focus Plus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 6.2% YTD - The All-Cap Composite (Net) returned 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD [1] Company Highlight: Medpace Holdings, Inc. - Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) is a healthcare company specializing in clinical research-based drug and medical device development services [2] - The stock traded between $250.05 and $628.92 over the past 52 weeks, closing at $606.27 on January 22, 2026 [2] - Medpace's one-month return was 6.82%, with a 0.18% gain over the last three months, and it has a market capitalization of approximately $17.078 billion [2] Valuation Insights - Vulcan Value Partners noted a weighted average price to value ratio in the mid-50s, indicating a portfolio trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value [3] - The firm acknowledged that while the majority of its MVP list is overvalued, its valuation methodology remains consistent and reliable [3] - The firm expressed confidence in its valuation approach, suggesting that its discounted companies are indeed undervalued compared to the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment characterized by inflation, high-interest rates, potential AI disruptions, and a weakening labor market makes dividend stocks an attractive investment option, particularly those with a long history of dividend payments [1]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation and high-interest rates are impacting the economy, leading to a preference for dividend stocks as a stable investment choice [1]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, further emphasizing the need for reliable income sources such as dividends [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus is on investing in quality blue-chip stocks, Business Development Companies (BDCs), and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that provide dividends [1]. - The investment strategy is centered around a buy-and-hold approach, prioritizing quality over quantity to build a sustainable retirement income through dividends in the next 5-7 years [1]. Group 3: Target Audience - The aim is to assist hard-working lower and middle-class workers in building investment portfolios that consist of high-quality, dividend-paying companies [1]. - There is a desire to provide a new perspective to investors to help them achieve financial independence [1].