Economic Indicators - US MBA mortgage applications fell by -12.7% in the week ended September 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing sub-index down -20.6% [1] - The September ISM manufacturing index rose +0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, exceeding expectations of 49.0 [6] - The September ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by -32,000, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, while August was revised lower to -3,000 from +54,000 [5] Market Reactions - Stocks initially moved lower due to the US government shutdown, but later recovered, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs [2][4] - The dollar index fell to a one-week low, while gold prices climbed to a record high amid risk-off sentiment [2] - Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies providing guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to beat analysts' expectations [8] Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks rallied, with AstraZeneca closing up more than +9% and Eli Lilly up more than +8%, driven by hopes from Pfizer's deal with the US government [15] - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks also saw gains, with Super Micro Computer closing up more than +9% and Micron Technology up more than +8% [16] - Grocery retailers declined after Amazon announced a new private-label food brand, leading to Dollar Tree and Dollar General closing down more than -4% and -3% respectively [22] Upcoming Economic Data - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 225,000, and August factory orders are expected to rise by +1.4% month-over-month [9] - September nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase by +51,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% [9]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is experiencing significant stock price growth, up 146.4% in the past three months, compared to the S&P 500's 18.9% increase [1] - The company reported a remarkable revenue growth of 385% in the last quarter, driven by increasing demand for its AI-infrastructure services [1][11] Business Ventures - In addition to its core AI business, NBIS holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, valued at approximately $6 billion, which could serve as a substantial capital source if monetized [2] - Other investments include stakes in Toloka, an AI data partner, TripleTen, an edtech platform, and Avride, an autonomous vehicle platform [2][11] - Toloka is backed by notable investors like Jeff Bezos and Mikhail Parakhin, which positions it for rapid scaling amid rising global demand for high-quality AI data [3] Strategic Partnerships - Avride has formed partnerships with major companies such as Uber, Hyundai, GrubHub, and Rakuten, indicating strong market positioning [4] - Nebius is in discussions with potential third-party investors, suggesting additional avenues for capital generation [4] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave (CRWV) is a competitor in the AI-infrastructure space, reporting a 420% revenue growth in Q1 2025 and focusing on infrastructure expansion through acquisitions [6] - Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) remains a dominant player in the tech sector, heavily investing in AI infrastructure and holding significant stakes in companies like OpenAI [8][9] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, NBIS shares have increased by 87.5%, outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry's growth of 23.8% [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS' earnings for 2025 has remained unchanged over the past 30 days [13] - Currently, NBIS shares are trading at a price/book ratio of 3.87X, slightly lower than the industry's ratio of 4.1X [16]