Group 1: Nvidia Earnings Report - Nvidia's earnings report is highly anticipated, with a focus on datacenter revenue and gross margins due to recent volatility in AI-infrastructure stocks [1] - Wall Street projects a 55% year-over-year growth in datacenter revenue and gross margins near 73%, driven by rising average selling prices (ASPs) and significant order backlogs estimated at over $500 billion through 2026 [2] - The guidance from Nvidia will be crucial, as investors seek confirmation of strong hyperscaler demand extending into 2025; any weakness in datacenter growth or margins could lead to rapid market reactions [2] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is currently in a bear phase, with Bitcoin trading at $94,000, down 25.5% from its all-time high of $126,200, while Ethereum is at $3,100, down 37.4% from its peak of $4,955 [3] - The market is experiencing tightening liquidity and a decrease in risk appetite, leading to defensive trading strategies [5] - Long-term investors are advised to consider disciplined dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies, as Bitcoin's recovery to key moving averages is uncertain [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming BLS non-farm payrolls and unemployment data for September is a significant macroeconomic catalyst, with weak data potentially heightening recession fears and impacting market sentiment [6] - If the BLS data aligns with expectations, it could provide relief to the market, enhancing stability and confidence in potential rate cuts by year-end [8] - Conversely, a strong jobs report could lead to increased yields, adding pressure to already fragile growth and cryptocurrency markets [8]

Economic Indicators - China's October industrial production rose by +4.9% year-on-year, which is below expectations of +5.5% and marks the smallest increase in 14 months [1] - New home prices in China fell by -0.45% month-on-month, representing the largest decline in a year and the twenty-ninth consecutive month of price decreases [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with the probability of a rate cut dropping to 43% from 70% [2][14] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about the need for further rate cuts, citing concerns over inflation and labor market conditions [2][13] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 closing down -0.05%, the Dow down -0.65%, and the Nasdaq up +0.06% [5] - The Magnificent Seven technology stocks experienced a recovery from early losses, contributing to the overall market's mixed performance [4][16] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price fell more than -4% to a 6.25-month low, continuing a five-week sell-off and down -24% from its record high last month [6] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a +14.6% increase in earnings, significantly above the expected +7.2% [10] Sector Performance - Energy producers saw gains as WTI crude oil prices rose by more than +2%, with companies like Valero Energy and Diamondback Energy closing up more than +3% [17] - Semiconductor stocks faced pressure, with several major companies, including Lam Research and ON Semiconductor, closing down more than -2% [18] Notable Company Movements - Stubhub Holdings saw a significant decline of more than -20% after reporting a Q3 loss per share that was wider than consensus estimates [19] - Cidara Therapeutics surged more than +105% following an acquisition agreement with Merck & Co. valued at approximately $9.2 billion [20]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US October ISM services index rose by 2.4 to 52.4, exceeding expectations of 50.8, marking the fastest pace of expansion in 8 months [2] - The US October ADP employment change increased by 42,000, surpassing expectations of 30,000 [3] - Price pressures in the service sector accelerated, with the ISM services prices paid sub-index unexpectedly rising by 0.6 to a 3-year high of 70.0 [2][11] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock indexes initially moved lower but recovered, with the S&P 500 up by 0.42%, the Dow Jones up by 0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.41% [7] - The correction in AI-infrastructure stocks continued, with Super Micro Computer down more than 8% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 net sales [5][19] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is strong, with 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, on track for the best quarter since 2021 [8] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year from 6.4% in Q2 [8] Group 4: Notable Stock Movements - Seagate Technology is up more than 11%, Micron Technology is up more than 8%, and Western Digital is up more than 7% [14] - Lumentum Holdings is up more than 24% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.10, above the consensus of $1.03 [15] - Zimmer Biomet Holdings is down more than 15% after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.00 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.01 billion [18]

Economic Indicators - US MBA mortgage applications fell by -12.7% in the week ended September 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing sub-index down -20.6% [1] - The September ISM manufacturing index rose +0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, exceeding expectations of 49.0 [6] - The September ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by -32,000, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, while August was revised lower to -3,000 from +54,000 [5] Market Reactions - Stocks initially moved lower due to the US government shutdown, but later recovered, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs [2][4] - The dollar index fell to a one-week low, while gold prices climbed to a record high amid risk-off sentiment [2] - Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies providing guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to beat analysts' expectations [8] Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks rallied, with AstraZeneca closing up more than +9% and Eli Lilly up more than +8%, driven by hopes from Pfizer's deal with the US government [15] - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks also saw gains, with Super Micro Computer closing up more than +9% and Micron Technology up more than +8% [16] - Grocery retailers declined after Amazon announced a new private-label food brand, leading to Dollar Tree and Dollar General closing down more than -4% and -3% respectively [22] Upcoming Economic Data - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 225,000, and August factory orders are expected to rise by +1.4% month-over-month [9] - September nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase by +51,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% [9]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is experiencing significant stock price growth, up 146.4% in the past three months, compared to the S&P 500's 18.9% increase [1] - The company reported a remarkable revenue growth of 385% in the last quarter, driven by increasing demand for its AI-infrastructure services [1][11] Business Ventures - In addition to its core AI business, NBIS holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, valued at approximately $6 billion, which could serve as a substantial capital source if monetized [2] - Other investments include stakes in Toloka, an AI data partner, TripleTen, an edtech platform, and Avride, an autonomous vehicle platform [2][11] - Toloka is backed by notable investors like Jeff Bezos and Mikhail Parakhin, which positions it for rapid scaling amid rising global demand for high-quality AI data [3] Strategic Partnerships - Avride has formed partnerships with major companies such as Uber, Hyundai, GrubHub, and Rakuten, indicating strong market positioning [4] - Nebius is in discussions with potential third-party investors, suggesting additional avenues for capital generation [4] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave (CRWV) is a competitor in the AI-infrastructure space, reporting a 420% revenue growth in Q1 2025 and focusing on infrastructure expansion through acquisitions [6] - Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) remains a dominant player in the tech sector, heavily investing in AI infrastructure and holding significant stakes in companies like OpenAI [8][9] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, NBIS shares have increased by 87.5%, outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry's growth of 23.8% [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS' earnings for 2025 has remained unchanged over the past 30 days [13] - Currently, NBIS shares are trading at a price/book ratio of 3.87X, slightly lower than the industry's ratio of 4.1X [16]