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赛力斯:营收高速增长,净利润接近预告上限-20250407
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-07 02:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3][27] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 305% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 145.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.946 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [10][3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 38.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.18%, although it experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.29% [10][3] - The company maintained a high gross margin of 26.15% for the year, with a fourth-quarter gross margin of 28.70% [10][3][16] - The company is focusing on high R&D investment while gradually controlling sales expenses, with a fourth-quarter sales expense ratio of 13.52%, an increase of 2.38 percentage points [20][2] - The sales volume of the core product, the "Wenjie" series, reached 389,100 units for the year, with fourth-quarter sales of 96,600 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 12.50% [22][2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 180 billion yuan, 200.3 billion yuan, and 225 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 9.425 billion yuan, 12.185 billion yuan, and 14.904 billion yuan for the same years [3][27] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 6.24 yuan, 8.07 yuan, and 9.87 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][27] - The company maintains a reasonable valuation of 144-156 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 23-25 times for 2025 [3][27] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned in the luxury car market, benefiting from technological advantages, manufacturing capabilities, and operational management [16][30] - Compared to competitors like Li Auto and BYD, the company focuses solely on luxury vehicles, which provides a higher gross margin and pricing power [30][31]