Adhishthana cycle

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Dollar Tree: The Hidden Risk Wall Street Is Missing
Benzinga· 2025-09-05 13:21
Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree has experienced a significant breakdown in its stock performance, contrary to typical expectations during Phase 9 of the Adhishthana cycle, indicating long-term underperformance and structural risk for the company [1][3]. Group 1: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - Dollar Tree is currently in Phase 9 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle, which usually signifies powerful breakouts and the beginning of a rally [1]. - The stock created a Cakra formation between Phases 4 and 8, but instead of breaking upward in Phase 9, it broke down, triggering the Move of Pralay, which indicates prolonged underperformance [2][3]. - The breakdown has resulted in a decline of up to 51% for Dollar Tree, confirming the framework's warning about structural risks [3]. Group 2: Current and Future Outlook - Despite a rebound since November 2024, the stock remains in Phase 4 on the weekly chart, suggesting that short-term strength should not be interpreted as a structural turnaround [4]. - The Guna Triads, essential for assessing long-term potential, will not materialize for nearly a decade, indicating that underperformance may continue for an extended period [4]. - The formation of Dollar Tree's Cakra took over 5,300 days, making the breakdown particularly significant and pointing to deeper fundamental fragility [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The outlook for Dollar Tree is dominated by downside risk, with large institutions like JP Morgan maintaining an 'Outperform' rating, but analysis suggests that any upward movements will likely face resistance [6]. - The recommendation for Dollar Tree remains underperform for the long term, advising existing investors to consider hidden risks and new investors to avoid exposure until structural improvements are evident [6].
TKO Group's Next Rally Starts With A Pullback
Benzinga· 2025-08-20 17:05
Core Insights - TKO Group is approaching a pivotal moment in its Adhishthana cycle, currently in Phase 17 out of 18, indicating potential for strong bullish momentum ahead [1][10] - A Nirvana move is likely in the next phase, but short-term indicators suggest a probable pullback before the larger rally begins [1][10] Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - Phases 14, 15, and 16 form the Guna Triads, crucial for determining if TKO can achieve Nirvana in Phase 18, which is the peak of the cycle [4] - Both Phase 14 and Phase 15 exhibited clear bullish strength, suggesting that conditions will be favorable for a Nirvana rally starting in January 2026 when Phase 18 begins [5] Short-Term Outlook - The monthly chart indicates near-term weakness, with TKO currently in Phase 8, which typically forms an arc-like structure that is bullish, leading to a breakout in Phase 9 [6] - TKO is trading above its breakout level but within Phase 8, which historically leads to unsustainable breakouts, likely pushing the stock back into its Cakra range [8] Investor Considerations - The long-term outlook for TKO Group remains bullish with a high probability of a Nirvana move in Phase 18, but the premature breakout suggests a near-term pullback is expected [10] - Existing investors should prepare for potential downside before the larger rally resumes, while new investors may find a pullback an attractive entry point ahead of the Nirvana phase [13]