What's the next step. The title report. The next step for China's bull markets, where they'll look for the next step.Yeah, I think, you know, for next year we still remain bullish. To me, I think the big change is really the global monetary order reconstruction from a, you know, strong dollar to a weak dollar and then from China us constantly in the trade negotiations to a G-2 framework. And then probably more importantly is the deep sea moment, not just in Asia but many other industries where there is a ma ...

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry in China, specifically tracking the profitability and pricing dynamics of the solar value chain, including Poly, Glass, Wafer, and Module segments [3][12]. Key Highlights 1. **Price Dynamics**: - In September 2025, the solar value chain experienced a price hike of 5% month-to-date (MTD), up from 2% in August, primarily driven by a 15% increase in Glass prices and an 8% increase in Poly prices [3][6]. - The price increase was attributed to active downstream re-stocking activities rather than a recovery in solar installation demand [3][12]. 2. **Inventory and Demand Outlook**: - There is an expectation of a 20% decline in Poly and Glass prices for the remainder of the year due to a buildup of downstream inventory against weak demand [3][12]. - Estimated inventory levels indicate that 130GW of Poly inventory will suffice for module needs, while Glass shipments are projected to decline by 20% month-over-month due to potential production cuts [3][12]. 3. **Sector View**: - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and new restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to have a mild positive impact on Poly pricing, but downstream players will still need to reduce selling prices to maintain market share amid demand weakness [3][12]. - Long-term profitability is anticipated to remain low without a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [3][12]. 4. **Profitability Trends**: - Cash gross profit margins (GPM) and EBITDA margins improved for upstream companies but deteriorated for downstream players in September [5][9]. - The average cash GPM for Poly was reported at 36%, while for Glass, it was 16% [12]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Preferred segments include Film (Buy on Hangzhou First), High-efficiency Module (Buy on Longi), and Granular Poly (Neutral on GCL Tech) [4]. - Least preferred segments include Glass (Sell on Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar) and Equipment (Sell on Shenzhen S.C. and Maxwell) [4]. Additional Insights - The report indicates that the production-to-demand ratio for the solar value chain is expected to increase to 110% in September from 109% in August, suggesting a slight oversupply situation [13]. - Producer-side inventory days are likely to decline to 34 days in September from 37 days in August, indicating a tightening of inventory levels [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the China Solar Profitability Tracker, highlighting the current state of the solar industry, pricing dynamics, inventory levels, and investment recommendations.