以下文章来源于雷科技 ，作者雷科技AI硬件组 雷科技 . 专注AI硬科技 来源｜ 雷科技（ID： leitech ） 封面来源 ｜ 雷科技 转眼之间，我们已经摸到了酷暑的尾巴。 虽然这一路伴随着连绵的雨季，但随着夏日的蝉鸣渐渐远去，秋季的凉风预示着科技圈年度盛宴的临近。各大厂商摩拳擦掌，而 全球目光的焦点，无疑将再次汇聚在备受瞩目的苹果秋季旗舰发布会上。 据外媒iPhone-ticker.de报道，德国手机供应商的内部消息显示，苹果今年秋季发布会预计将定在9月9日（即北京时间9月10日凌 晨），这个时间和此前彭博社记者马克・古尔曼的预测高度相符，两相印证后可信度高了不少。 （图源：iPhone-ticker.de） 苹果秋季发布会依然当得起"科技春晚"的title。 文 ｜ 雷科技AI硬件组 编辑 ｜ 三明治 按照苹果历年的发布规律，秋季盛会是其最重要硬件产品的专属舞台，承载着无数消费者的期待。换言之，一场关于iPhone 17系 列和其他苹果核心产品的年度革新，已在酝酿之中。 问题来了，在2025年的秋季发布会上，苹果将会为我们带来哪些颠覆性的惊喜呢？ 就雷科技探测的预测情报来看，iPhone 17系列将迎 ...

虽然这一路伴随着连绵的雨季，但随着夏日的蝉鸣渐渐远去，秋季的凉风预示着科技圈年度盛宴的临近。各大厂商摩拳擦掌，而全球目光的焦点，无疑将再 次汇聚在备受瞩目的苹果秋季旗舰发布会上。 转眼之间，我们已经摸到了酷暑的尾巴。 据外媒iPhone-ticker.de报道，德国手机供应商的内部消息显示，苹果今年秋季发布会预计将定在9月9日（即北京时间9月10日凌晨），这个时间和此前彭博 社记者马克・古尔曼的预测高度相符，两相印证后可信度高了不少。 按照苹果历年的发布规律，秋季盛会是其最重要硬件产品的专属舞台，承载着无数消费者的期待。换言之，一场关于iPhone 17系列和其他苹果核心产品的 年度革新，已在酝酿之中。 问题来了，在2025年的秋季发布会上，苹果将会为我们带来哪些颠覆性的惊喜呢？ 就雷科技探测的预测情报来看，iPhone 17系列将迎来产品线的重大调整，Apple Watch家族将全面更新，传闻已久的AirPods Pro 3也终于有了新消息。除了这 些迭代产品以外，又会有哪些激动人心的新品将会落地？现在就让我们来大致盘点一下，那些苹果有望在2025年秋季发布的全新产品。 iPhone 17掀起轻薄革命，终于 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a June revenue record of $94 billion, up 10% year over year, with EPS at a record $1.57, up 12% year over year [5][26]. - Gross margin was 46.5%, down 60 basis points sequentially, primarily due to approximately $800 million in tariff-related costs [27]. - Operating expenses were $15.5 billion, up 8% year over year, leading to a net income of $23.4 billion, also a record [28]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - iPhone revenue reached $44.6 billion, up 13% year over year, driven by the popularity of the iPhone 16 family [13][28]. - Mac revenue was $8 billion, up 15% year over year, with strong performance from the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro [14][30]. - Services revenue hit an all-time high of $27.4 billion, up 13% year over year, with strong growth across various markets [19][27]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw revenue records in over two dozen countries, including the US, Canada, and India, with double-digit growth in emerging markets [6][26]. - In Greater China, revenue grew by 4% during the quarter, driven by iPhone and Mac sales [56]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is significantly increasing investments in AI, integrating AI features across its platforms, and focusing on user privacy and personalization [10][11][64]. - The company is committed to a $500 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years, focusing on advanced manufacturing and AI [23][81]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth in various markets and the strong performance of new products, despite challenges from tariffs [25][37]. - The company expects total revenue growth in the mid to high single digits for the September quarter, with services revenue growth similar to the June quarter [38]. Other Important Information - The company incurred approximately $800 million in tariff-related costs for the June quarter and estimates an additional $1.1 billion for the September quarter [24][25]. - The installed base of active devices reached an all-time high across all product categories [26]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Upgrade rates and CapEx - The company noted that upgrade rates were strong due to the popularity of the iPhone 16 family, with a minor pull forward of demand related to tariff discussions [40][45][46]. - CapEx is increasing significantly, driven by investments in AI and private cloud computing [42][44]. Question: Services growth and search trends - Management indicated that Apple products remain valuable as search access points, despite evolving consumer behaviors [50][52]. - Services growth was strong, with double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets [84]. Question: Demand in China - Demand for the iPhone 16 was strong in China, with record upgraders and significant growth in the installed base [56][58]. Question: Siri and AI investments - The company is making good progress on a more personalized Siri, with expectations to release new features next year [61][63]. Question: Tariff impacts and supply chain strategy - The company is actively optimizing its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts and is committed to increasing U.S. manufacturing [80][91]. Question: iPhone demand drivers - Strong upgrade performance was attributed to the iPhone 16 family and promotional activities [89][93].

Core Insights - Apple's third-quarter fiscal 2025 results are anticipated to show the positive impact of Apple Intelligence on iPhone and non-iPhone devices, including Mac and iPad [1][10] - The Services segment is expected to benefit from a growing installed base of devices and a rising subscriber base, with over 1 billion paid subscribers reported [2][4] Services Business - The Services business is projected to achieve $26.96 billion in revenue for the third quarter, indicating an 11.3% year-over-year growth [7] - The growth in Services is supported by popular offerings such as Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Pay, which have attracted a significant number of subscribers [4] Mac Sales - Mac sales are expected to grow by 2.2% year-over-year, with net sales estimated at $7.16 billion, driven by strong shipment growth and increased market share [10][11] - Apple's market share in the PC segment rose to 9.1%, with a shipment increase of 21.4% year-over-year [8][9] iPad Sales - iPad sales are projected to decline, with an estimated revenue of $6.78 billion for the third quarter, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year decrease [12] - Despite strong demand for iPad Pro and new iPad Air models, sluggish demand is expected to impact overall iPad revenues [12]

Core Insights - Apple is expected to achieve a 2.4% year-on-year revenue growth from AirPods by 2026, with total revenue surpassing $10 billion, driven by product line expansion and continuous feature evolution [1][4] Group 1: Product Strategy - Apple has expanded its AirPods product matrix, introducing a budget-friendly version without Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) in 2024, setting a new entry price point [1] - This strategic move allows Apple to reach a broader price-sensitive user base, including consumers in emerging markets and students [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Emerging markets have become a significant driver for iPhone sales growth, which in turn boosts the demand for AirPods as iPhone penetration increases [1] - Apple is continuously innovating to enhance user experience with features like Active Noise Cancellation, seamless integration with iOS, instant pairing, and automatic device switching [1] Group 3: Health Monitoring Features - Apple is redefining TWS (True Wireless Stereo) headphones by integrating health monitoring features, such as clinical-grade hearing assistance in AirPods Pro 2, which has received FDA certification [1][4] - Future AirPods models are expected to introduce heart rate monitoring and temperature sensing, further solidifying their position as wearable health devices [4] Group 4: Technological Integration - Apple Intelligence will enhance the AirPods experience with features like real-time translation and advanced gesture control, making the product more versatile [4] - The strategy aims to improve audio and call experiences while expanding applications in content creation and advanced health tracking, which is expected to sustain revenue growth for AirPods [4]

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research projects that Apple's revenue from AirPods will see a year-on-year growth of 2.4% by 2026, with cumulative revenue surpassing $100 billion, driven by product line expansion and continuous feature evolution [2][3]. Group 1: Product Strategy - Apple has expanded its AirPods product matrix, introducing a budget-friendly model without Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) in 2024, setting a new entry price point [2][3]. - This strategic move allows Apple to reach a broader price-sensitive user base, including consumers in emerging markets and students, which are becoming significant drivers for iPhone sales [2][3]. Group 2: User Experience and Innovation - Apple is continuously innovating to enhance user experience, with features like Active Noise Cancellation, seamless integration with iOS, instant pairing, and automatic device switching receiving positive feedback [2][3]. - The integration of health monitoring features is redefining TWS (True Wireless Stereo) headphones, with AirPods Pro 2 introducing FDA-certified clinical-grade hearing assistance, attracting new user demographics [2][5]. Group 3: Future Developments - Future AirPods models are expected to incorporate health functionalities such as heart rate monitoring and temperature sensing, reinforcing their positioning as wearable health devices [5]. - Apple Intelligence will enhance the AirPods experience with innovations like real-time translation and advanced gesture control, aiming to create a more versatile product that improves audio and call experiences while expanding into content creation and advanced health tracking [5].

AI Strategy & Development - Apple is considering using OpenAI or Anthropic to power Siri, acknowledging its in-house AI limitations [1][3] - The market anticipates an upgraded Siri enhanced by AI, but details and timing remain unclear after the developers conference [3][4] - Integrating OpenAI or Anthropic's expertise is viewed as a positive step for Apple's AI development [3][4] Market & Competitive Pressures - Tariffs and weak sales in China, due to competitive pressure and the lack of a robust AI smartphone, pose challenges for Apple [5] - China sales showed slight improvement in the March quarter compared to the December quarter [5] Potential Competition - OpenAI's $64 billion investment in Johnny Ive's company for AI device development is seen more as a defensive move than a direct threat to Apple [6][7] - The industry views OpenAI's hardware efforts as an attempt to diversify and reduce dependence on Apple and Google's ecosystems [7] Analyst Perspective - Tom Forte, a senior consumer internet analyst at Max Group, has a "hold" rating on Apple stock with a price target of $201 [1]

Core Insights - Apple is enhancing its Services offerings, achieving over 1 billion paid subscribers, more than double from four years ago [1] - Services revenue grew 11.6% year-over-year to $26.65 billion in the fiscal second quarter, driven by product upgrades and new features [10] - The introduction of Apple Intelligence into Services is expected to further boost revenue growth [1][3] Services Expansion - New features announced at the Worldwide Developers Conference include AutoMix and Lyrics Translation in Apple Music, and enhanced navigation in Apple Maps [2] - Apple Wallet now incorporates Apple Intelligence for improved order tracking and payment flexibility through Apple Pay [3] - An update to Apple Maps provides users with rankings and insights for restaurants, hotels, and more, contributing to user engagement [4] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the Services space include Netflix and Disney, both of which have strong subscriber bases and content strategies [5][6][7] - Netflix aims to double its revenues by 2030, leveraging a diverse content portfolio and high engagement levels [6] - Disney has a significant global audience with 157 million active users, benefiting from its ad-supported streaming content and strong domestic park revenues [7] Financial Performance - Apple shares have decreased by 19.5% year-to-date, underperforming the broader technology sector [8] - Services revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% from 2024 to 2027 [4][10] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for Apple is 7.25X, compared to the industry average of 6.75X, indicating a premium valuation [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal Q3 2025 earnings is $1.41 per share, reflecting a 0.71% year-over-year growth [14] - The consensus for fiscal 2025 earnings is $7.11 per share, suggesting a 5.33% year-over-year growth [15]

AI Strategy & Analysis - The discussion revolves around Apple's approach to AI, specifically its "UI over AI" strategy [1] - The report questions whether Apple can successfully execute its "Apple Intelligence" vision [1] - It analyzes potential issues with Apple's "Liquid Glass" redesign [1] Conference Vibe & Key Opinion - The report provides a clear-eyed, no-nonsense analysis of the tech world's biggest stories, including the vibes at the conference [1] - M.G Siegler, author of Spyglass, shares his insights on Apple's WWDC [1] Call to Action - The report encourages listeners to rate the Big Technology Podcast five stars [1] - It offers a 25% discount for the first year of Big Technology on Substack [1]

Core Viewpoint - The most significant highlight of WWDC 2025 is not AI features but the introduction of a new user interface design called Liquid Glass, marking Apple's largest UI overhaul in 12 years [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Design Language - Apple announced a new software design language centered around "Liquid Glass," enhancing visual consistency across its operating systems [2]. - This design represents a shift from skeuomorphism to a more modern aesthetic, moving away from the flat design introduced in iOS 7 [2][3]. - The new UI aims to provide a fluid experience with glass-like textures and transparency, symbolizing a major leap in Apple's design philosophy [1][18]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since the launch of iOS 7, the basic elements of iPhone software have remained largely unchanged for 12 years, making this update particularly noteworthy [3]. - The previous design changes, led by Jony Ive, focused on flat design, which has now evolved into the more dynamic Liquid Glass approach [2]. Group 3: Developer Challenges - The introduction of Liquid Glass presents new challenges for developers, including potential performance issues due to the demanding graphical effects [20][21]. - Developers will need to adjust their applications to align with the new design paradigm, which may complicate cross-platform development, especially for frameworks like Flutter [23][35]. - The reliance on platform-specific graphics capabilities for the Liquid Glass design could lead to increased maintenance costs and complexity in adapting applications [34][35]. Group 4: Market Position and AI - While Liquid Glass is a highlight, it also underscores Apple's current lag in the AI sector compared to competitors who are rapidly integrating AI features [8][14]. - Apple's focus on enhancing traditional operating systems with aesthetic improvements may not sufficiently address the growing demand for AI capabilities [8][14].