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【重磅深度】AI+汽车智能化系列之十一——以地平线为例,探究第三方智驾供应商核心竞争力
Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the breakthrough opportunities for leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers, driven by the demand for equal access to intelligent driving and the performance catch-up and mass production validation [2][8]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - Leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers are expected to become the optimal solution for second- and third-tier automakers seeking equal access to intelligent driving, with a potential market share of around 50% of total new car sales [2][8]. - The current trend of intelligent driving is accelerating towards equal access, with a focus on cost reduction in systems, as automakers balance performance and cost in their strategies [2][8]. Group 2: Domestic Chip Comparison - NVIDIA's Orin series chips currently dominate the high-end intelligent driving market, but domestic chip suppliers have made significant progress in performance, mass production validation, and customer acquisition over the past five years [3][39]. - The domestic chip leader, Horizon Robotics, is entering a new cycle of product iteration and business model elevation, leading in the rollout of mid- to high-end intelligent driving chips and algorithms [11][39]. Group 3: Core Value of Third-Party Chip Suppliers - The importance of being a first mover is highlighted, as intelligent driving chips typically require over three years of R&D and manufacturing cycles, necessitating continuous iteration capabilities for cost-performance balance [4][54]. - The design and manufacturing cost perspective indicates that a 7nm intelligent driving chip can achieve cost parity with mature chip procurement at a production volume of 1.5 million units, emphasizing the need for high output and rapid iteration capabilities for self-developed chips [4][57]. Group 4: Algorithm Insights - The "BEV + Transformer" algorithm approach, focusing on "heavy perception, light mapping," has been validated and widely applied, reducing risks for Tier 1 suppliers and allowing them to keep pace with cutting-edge technologies [4][62]. - Horizon Robotics' latest intelligent driving algorithm, HSD, is positioned as a "showcase," balancing performance and efficiency while addressing the challenges of scaling up and out in intelligent driving systems [62][63]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The intelligent driving landscape is expected to see a significant shift towards equal access by 2026, with many domestic automakers planning to adopt domestic chips as their mainstream solution [28][43]. - The competitive landscape among automakers is intensifying, with a focus on high-level intelligent driving capabilities and the need for cost-effective solutions [2][8].