1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repeated negotiations between the US and Iran have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed suit. The BZN spread has increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has risen, with the overall valuation being moderately high. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, while that of styrene is relatively tight. As the seasonal off - season has arrived, the downstream "Three S" operating rates are oscillating at a low level. Under the reality of weak supply and demand, the EB - BZ spread is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy**: Repeated US - Iran negotiations have caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene's monthly increase shows the order of spot > futures > cost. The basis has weakened, the BZN spread has strengthened, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has strengthened [11]. - **Cost**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China has increased by 15.28%, the closing price of the active pure benzene contract has increased by 12.77%, and the basis has increased by 116 yuan/ton. The pure benzene operating rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period. In November, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.3716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 69.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.84%, and a decrease of 12.41% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - **Import and Export**: Last month, the EB import volume was 311,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.67% and a year - on - year increase of 65.68% [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of the downstream "Three S" is 40.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The PS operating rate is 55.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% but a year - on - year increase of 10.40%. The EPS operating rate is 56.24%, a month - on - month increase of 5.59% and a year - on - year increase of 807.70%. The ABS operating rate is 64.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. In the seasonal off - season and in a low - profit environment, the operating rates are lower than in previous years [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 157,800 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 2.79% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 38.33%. The EB inventory at Jiangsu ports is 108,600 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 17.91% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 25.62%. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has also decreased [12]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2603) is 7,600 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and for pure benzene (BZ2603) is 6,000 - 6,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads from 2022 to 2026, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts (such as consecutive 1 - consecutive 2, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [15][17][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2022 to 2026 [34][36][38]. - **Profit**: The report presents the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process and POSM process, the production process proportion of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method: 85%, PO/SM co - production method: 12%, C8 extraction method: 3%), and the capacity proportion of the top ten styrene production enterprises (44%) [40][42][45]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Price Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread has fallen from a high level, and the US - South Korea pure benzene price spread may decline. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene price spreads (China - South Korea, US - South Korea), BZN spread, and pure benzene import profit from various years [50][52][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from the bottom. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene operating rate, hydrogenated pure benzene operating rate, and other related product operating rates and production profits (such as Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha crack spread, phenol production profit and operating rate, aniline production profit and operating rate, caprolactam production profit and operating rate, adipic acid production profit and operating rate) [58][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory has significantly decreased. Charts show the historical data of phenol inventory at Jiangyin Port and caprolactam in - plant inventory [78][79]. - **Import and Downstream Demand**: The report shows the monthly import volume of pure benzene and the proportion of downstream demand for pure benzene (styrene: 41%, caprolactam: 18%, phenol: 16%, aniline: 13%, adipic acid: 7%, others: 5%) [84][80]. 3.5 Supply Side The styrene production volume has been oscillating at a low level. Charts show the historical data of styrene weekly operating rate, import volume, daily production volume, and export volume [89][90]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Profit**: The profits of EPS and PS are at a low level in the same period. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS and PS [99][103][105]. - **ABS**: The ABS operating rate has been oscillating at the bottom along with profit. Charts show the profit, operating rate, and inventory of ABS [108][109][116]. - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The report shows the proportion of styrene downstream demand (PS: 35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.; EPS: 21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging; ABS: 15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [118]. - **Household Appliance Data**: Charts show the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household refrigerators, as well as the domestic sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of washing machines [119][123][128].