1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repeated negotiations between the US and Iran have led to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed suit. The BZN spread has increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has risen, with the overall valuation being moderately high. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, while that of styrene is relatively tight. As the seasonal off - season has arrived, the downstream "Three S" operating rates are oscillating at a low level. Under the reality of weak supply and demand, the EB - BZ spread is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy**: Repeated US - Iran negotiations have caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene's monthly increase shows the order of spot > futures > cost. The basis has weakened, the BZN spread has strengthened, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has strengthened [11]. - **Cost**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China has increased by 15.28%, the closing price of the active pure benzene contract has increased by 12.77%, and the basis has increased by 116 yuan/ton. The pure benzene operating rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period. In November, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.3716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 69.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.84%, and a decrease of 12.41% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - **Import and Export**: Last month, the EB import volume was 311,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.67% and a year - on - year increase of 65.68% [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of the downstream "Three S" is 40.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The PS operating rate is 55.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% but a year - on - year increase of 10.40%. The EPS operating rate is 56.24%, a month - on - month increase of 5.59% and a year - on - year increase of 807.70%. The ABS operating rate is 64.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. In the seasonal off - season and in a low - profit environment, the operating rates are lower than in previous years [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 157,800 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 2.79% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 38.33%. The EB inventory at Jiangsu ports is 108,600 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 17.91% and a year - on - year de - stocking of 25.62%. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has also decreased [12]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2603) is 7,600 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and for pure benzene (BZ2603) is 6,000 - 6,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads from 2022 to 2026, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts (such as consecutive 1 - consecutive 2, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [15][17][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2022 to 2026 [34][36][38]. - **Profit**: The report presents the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process and POSM process, the production process proportion of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method: 85%, PO/SM co - production method: 12%, C8 extraction method: 3%), and the capacity proportion of the top ten styrene production enterprises (44%) [40][42][45]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Price Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread has fallen from a high level, and the US - South Korea pure benzene price spread may decline. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene price spreads (China - South Korea, US - South Korea), BZN spread, and pure benzene import profit from various years [50][52][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from the bottom. Charts show the historical data of pure benzene operating rate, hydrogenated pure benzene operating rate, and other related product operating rates and production profits (such as Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha crack spread, phenol production profit and operating rate, aniline production profit and operating rate, caprolactam production profit and operating rate, adipic acid production profit and operating rate) [58][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory has significantly decreased. Charts show the historical data of phenol inventory at Jiangyin Port and caprolactam in - plant inventory [78][79]. - **Import and Downstream Demand**: The report shows the monthly import volume of pure benzene and the proportion of downstream demand for pure benzene (styrene: 41%, caprolactam: 18%, phenol: 16%, aniline: 13%, adipic acid: 7%, others: 5%) [84][80]. 3.5 Supply Side The styrene production volume has been oscillating at a low level. Charts show the historical data of styrene weekly operating rate, import volume, daily production volume, and export volume [89][90]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Profit**: The profits of EPS and PS are at a low level in the same period. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS and PS [99][103][105]. - **ABS**: The ABS operating rate has been oscillating at the bottom along with profit. Charts show the profit, operating rate, and inventory of ABS [108][109][116]. - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The report shows the proportion of styrene downstream demand (PS: 35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.; EPS: 21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging; ABS: 15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [118]. - **Household Appliance Data**: Charts show the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household refrigerators, as well as the domestic sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of washing machines [119][123][128].

01 周度评估及策略推荐 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 EB-BZ价差触及同期高位， 做多利润可逐步止盈 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/31 CONTENTS 目录 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 库存：EB厂内库存14.86万吨，环比去库-1.71%，较去年同期去库-20.51%；EB江苏港口库存10.06万吨，环比累库7.59%，较去 年同期累库6.34%。纯苯港口库存出现去化，苯乙烯港口库存去化放缓。 【策略观点】 美联储保持利率不变，符合预期，原油价格大幅反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化装置利润下降，整体估值中 性偏高。苯乙烯供应端压力缓解，需求端进入季节性淡季，下游三S利润均处于历史同期低位，开工季节性回落，港口库存去化 放缓。短期苯乙烯震荡偏多，非一体化装置利润大幅修复，EB-BZ价差已触及历史同期高位，目前利润已中性偏高可，逐步止盈。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 盘面交易估值逻辑， 持续做多EB-BZ价差 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美联储降息符合预期，对市场释放一定流动性，但不属于"QE"范畴，全球货币政策偏宽，资本市场反应温和，大宗 商品涨跌各现。 估值：苯乙烯周度跌幅（成本＞现货＞期货），基差走强，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格下跌-0.38%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格下跌-0.40%，纯苯基差上涨2元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率67.29%，环比下降-2.41%，同比去年下降-3.73%，较5年同期下降-11.81%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复， 开工率随之上升。 进出口：10月国内纯苯进口量为496.77万吨，环比上涨14.18%，同比去年上涨14. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in pure benzene inventory and decrease in styrene inventory are favorable for the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [2] - For pure benzene, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, and the low gasoline inventory in the US and strong gasoline crack spreads support Asian aromatics. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered, but the window remains closed. In the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, leading to a faster increase in port inventory. Domestic production operations continue to rise, while downstream operations are weak [2] - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boosts and low domestic operations, but there are expectations of resumption in late November. Downstream demand is still present, but downstream operations are still low [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the main basis of pure benzene and its main futures contract price, the main contract basis of pure benzene, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread of pure benzene, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene [7][10] - Figures related to EB include the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [13][16] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the spread between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene [18][21][24] - Figures related to import profits include the import profit of pure benzene and styrene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [30][36] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to pure benzene include the East China port inventory of pure benzene and its operating rate [38] - Figures related to styrene include the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory of styrene, and its operating rate [40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][54] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][62][71] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive spreads for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [3] - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]