Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for Q3 2025 [4] - The trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year to date [4][26] - The company revised its full year 2025 adjusted earnings per share expectations to a range of $3.25 to $3.5, down from approximately $4 per share [15][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Ag Services and Oilseeds (AS and O) segment, operating profit was $379 million, down 21% year-over-year [18] - The Ag Services sub-segment saw an operating profit of $190 million, an increase of 78% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher export activity [19] - The crushing sub-segment's operating profit was $13 million, down 93% from the prior year quarter due to significantly lower execution margins [20] - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment's operating profit was $336 million, down 26% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in global demand for sweeteners and starches [22] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% compared to the prior quarter, with operating profit of $130 million, up 24% year-over-year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved the best total export volume for September since 2016, which helped offset some weakness in the crush business [8] - The global demand for sweeteners and starches was lower, impacting volumes and margins, particularly in the EMEA region [22] - Ethanol export flows are projected to drive similar sequential demand throughout the fourth quarter, although margins are expected to be lower than previous highs [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, portfolio optimization, and cost savings, targeting $200 million to $300 million in cost savings for 2025 [11][28] - A joint venture with Alltech in Animal Nutrition aims to transition the business into higher-margin specialty ingredients, expected to commence operations in 2026 [11][50] - The company is investing in innovation, particularly in flavor systems for energy drinks and natural colors, as well as postbiotics [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging industry-wide operating environment but remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by U.S. biofuel policy [5][15] - The company expects 2026 to offer a more constructive environment for the industry and American farmers, creating positive economic opportunities [16] - Management highlighted the importance of clarity on trade deals and biofuel policies for future performance [84][85] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation, with a net leverage ratio of 1.8 times as of September [27] - The company continues to focus on improving working capital efficiency, having reduced inventory by $3.2 billion year to date [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush? - Management explained that the soybean board crush rallied sharply post-RVO announcements but has since moved lower due to various factors, including trade deal uncertainties and a decrease in U.S. acres [39][40] Question: Can you clarify the insurance gains? - Management confirmed that half of the insurance proceeds are expected to come from captive insurance and the other half from third parties, similar to the previous year [44] Question: What are the benefits of the joint venture with Alltech? - The joint venture aims to combine the strengths of both companies in the animal nutrition market, focusing on specialty ingredients and operational improvements [50][51] Question: How does the company view the clarity on biofuel policy? - Management expressed optimism that once policies are finalized, it will lead to increased demand for soybean oil and improved crush margins [56][58] Question: What is the outlook for Ag Services in Q4? - Management indicated that while Q3 was strong, Q4 may be softer due to uncertainties surrounding trade deals and farmer selling behavior [84][85]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its full-year 2025 profit outlook due to weaker crush margins and delays in U.S. biofuel policy, resulting in a nearly 11% drop in its shares during pre-market trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ADM now anticipates adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, a decrease from the previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share [4]. - The company reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ending September 30, surpassing the average estimate of 85 cents [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, resulting in a 21% decline in operating profit to $379 million in the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [2]. - Major agriculture processors, including ADM, are contending with volatile commodity cycles, soft crop prices, and uncertain energy policies [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates that policy clarity and improving global trade flows will support growth in 2026, with expectations for biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for the industry [3].

Soybean Market & Trade - US biofuel policy is seen as a solution to absorb excess soybean production resulting from China's reduced demand for US soybeans [1] - The US soybean industry hopes trade negotiations will resume to restore access to the Chinese market [2] Industry Stance - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) acknowledges the challenges faced by soybean farmers [1] - The American Soybean Association (ASA) remains optimistic about regaining access to the Chinese market [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, which have increased the overall duty rate on U.S. soybeans to 34% by 2025, making U.S. soybeans prohibitively expensive compared to South American supplies [1][2] - China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, marking a drastic shift as it previously accounted for around 52% of U.S. soybean exports [3][12] - The U.S. is expected to lose soybean market share to South America permanently, as China increasingly sources soybeans from Brazil and Argentina due to lower prices [4][5] Tariffs and Market Dynamics - The combination of tariffs and trade wars has blunted the competitive advantage of U.S. soybean growers, leading to a significant decline in exports to China [2][3] - U.S. soybean prices have been negatively impacted, with current prices around $10.13 per bushel, down from profitable levels of $14 to $15 [16] Shifts in Supply Chains - China has been building its reserve storage of soybeans, allowing it to reduce reliance on U.S. supplies [7] - Investment in Brazil's agricultural infrastructure by China has facilitated increased soybean production there, further diminishing U.S. market share [8] Domestic Demand and Biofuel - The U.S. biofuel program may help replace some lost soybean demand, with biomass-diesel production rising significantly from 1,471.7 million gallons a decade ago to 4,292.4 million gallons in 2023 [10][11] - However, the U.S. will not be able to fully compensate for the lost demand from China through domestic biofuel policies alone, as it will take years to build the necessary infrastructure [11] Economic Impact on Farmers - The lack of Chinese purchases is expected to create substantial losses for U.S. farmers, leading to storage issues and financial strain [13][15] - Input costs for farming have been rising, further squeezing profit margins for farmers [17]

Industry Dynamics - US oil refiners find an ally in China against President Trump's biofuel policy changes [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy [12] - In merchandising, improved performance in global grains and oils was offset by lower results in financial services and ocean freight businesses [15] - Milling results were higher in North America but lower in South America [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year due to a record bean crop, while Argentina also saw better margins driven by strong farmer selling [32] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [34] - In China, Q2 margins improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [6][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging a global approach to risk management [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential commercial synergies from the Viterra integration, highlighting the importance of a balanced global footprint [25][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes it is well-positioned to serve customers across the value chain [25][26] - The outlook for the second half of the year includes expectations for improved processing margins, particularly in Q4, despite challenges in merchandising and specialty oils [58] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [17] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Soy crush performance and fundamentals outlook - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [31][32] Question: Concerns about Viterra earnings base - Management acknowledged challenges during the transition but expressed confidence in the combined company's potential and the strategic rationale behind the merger [42][46] Question: Implications of U.S. crush margins on global markets - Management indicated that the combined company is well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions and emphasized the importance of a balanced global footprint [52][53] Question: Shareholder returns and buyback plans - The company has $800 million remaining under its $2 billion buyback commitment and plans to execute on this soon [103][105] Question: Outlook for refining margins and competition - Management expects refining margins to moderate over time but believes domestic soybean oil will remain competitive due to supportive policies [76][82]

Core Viewpoint - Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) has been assigned a 'buy' rating due to its low commodity and raw material costs, leading to a stock price increase of over 30% since November 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index [1] Group 1 - The stock price of Corteva has surged by more than 30% since the 'buy' rating was assigned [1] - The performance of Corteva has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index during the same period [1] - The positive outlook is attributed to the company's low commodity and raw material costs [1]