Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 with a negative yearly return of 6%, marking the first time in a post-halving year that it ended in the red, deviating from historical trends [2][6] - The traditional "4-year cycle" associated with Bitcoin's halving events is being questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be evolving due to market maturation rather than being entirely broken [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked in the year following the halving, with significant positive returns observed in previous cycles: - 2012-2013: +8,480% to +7,000% - 2016-2017: +285% to +1,300% - 2020-2021: +560% - 2024-2025: -6% to -7%, the weakest post-halving performance on record [3][4] Market Dynamics - The impact of Bitcoin's halving events appears to be diminishing in an increasingly institutionalized market, with the 2024 halving reducing issuance from 1.7% to 0.85% annually, as approximately 94% of Bitcoin is already mined [7] - Institutional dominance has increased, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 leading to cumulative inflows of approximately $56–$87 billion, tying Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets [7] Correlation and Macro Factors - Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose significantly in 2025, indicating its behavior as a "macro asset" sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and equity sentiment [7] - Macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and Fed policy tightening, contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance, with it lagging behind gold, which performed well as a traditional hedge [7] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The early bull run in 2024 was driven by ETF hype, peaking early in 2025 before a correction occurred, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7] - Reduced retail speculation is evident, with lower volatility and perpetual futures basis rates reflecting a more mature trading environment dominated by institutional players, accounting for 60% or more of trading volume [7]

As fears mount that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble has popped, Wall Street dealmaking is being kept alive by a fundamental problem: bitcoin (BTC) miners and data center developers still require serious amounts of power. “M&A work is still ongoing as people still need power,” said Joe Nardini, head of investment banking at B. Riley Securities, in an interview with CoinDesk. Nardini said demand for power from bitcoin miners remains “huge,” but added that the pull from AI and high-performance comp ...

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Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle will be disrupted due to increased institutional investment, leading to reduced volatility and potentially preventing significant price declines [1][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Market Dynamics - Historically, Bitcoin experienced price drops of 75-90% in its early days, but recent trends indicate that volatility is decreasing as institutional interest grows [1]. - The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the mining reward to 3.125 bitcoins, which has historically led to bull runs by limiting new supply [1][2]. - Wood posits that Bitcoin is transitioning to a "risk-on asset," aligning more closely with the performance of stocks and real estate, contrasting with its previous role as a "risk-off asset" during times of economic distress [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Influence and Predictions - Wood's investment strategy includes increasing positions in crypto-related companies such as Coinbase and Circle, as well as in the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, indicating a strong belief in the future of cryptocurrencies [4]. - Standard Chartered has also suggested that the traditional halving cycle may no longer be a relevant price driver due to the impact of ETF buying, challenging previous market logic [4][5]. - The prediction market Myriad indicates a mere 4% chance of Bitcoin outperforming gold by 2025, reflecting skepticism about Bitcoin's future performance compared to traditional safe-haven assets [3].

JPMorgan analysts signaled on Tuesday that Bitcoin and other digital assets could have more room to run, despite fears sparked by the original cryptocurrency’s plunge over the last month. Although some onlookers may be convinced that crypto prices are primed for prolonged downturn following Bitcoin’s fall as low as $81,000 last month, the investment bank doesn’t foresee a so-called crypto winter brewing on the horizon. “The sell-off this past month triggered worries throughout crypto media and markets that ...

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Um we had a couple Bitcoin miners there is this narrative that they have absolute control over Bitcoin price like you you were just talking about how if they don't sell right after having then there is no supply. >> I think after the super cycle you may end up having a change. I think that as we tend to be creeping up in the day of the the date of the having that adds to the scarcity right so in other words if you have more people buying and less inventory to sell the numbers still make a difference right a ...

Group 1 - Tether Holdings has decided to shut down its Bitcoin mining operations in Uruguay due to high energy costs and an inability to negotiate lower prices [1][5][6] - The company had initially planned a significant investment of approximately $500 million in Uruguay [8] - Tether's decision to exit follows a reported $4.8 million debt dispute with the state-owned electricity entity, UTE [6] Group 2 - Bitcoin mining is becoming less attractive due to reduced mining rewards from multiple halving events, despite the overall increase in Bitcoin prices [3][4] - The energy-intensive nature of Bitcoin mining drives companies to seek locations with lower energy costs [4]

Today marks 13 years since the first Bitcoin Halving, a milestone that changed the market forever.But what was it, exactly? Why does it matter, and how has it shaped crypto?Read the full breakdown ⤵️ ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin miners are facing new structural risks related to power contracts, firmware systems, and hosting agreements as the industry approaches the new year [1] - These vulnerabilities could influence the control of Bitcoin's hash rate and determine which companies survive amid increasing competition for power [2] - The mining sector's focus on halvings, machine efficiency, and price swings may overlook deeper issues related to contracts, software, and energy access [3] Industry Dynamics - Mining pool concentration is a significant concern, with just six pools producing over 95% of blocks as of 2025 [3] - The concentration of mining pools allows them to control transaction inclusion or exclusion, which could impact Bitcoin's censorship resistance if collusion occurs [4] - Lenders, firmware vendors, and hosting providers may exert influence over mining operations through contracts and management software, potentially shifting hash power without direct action from miners [4] Energy Market Changes - Since the launch of Bitcoin in 2009, miners have relied on power costs below $0.03 per kilowatt hour, but competition for electricity is increasing as data center operators build AI infrastructure [5] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects wholesale electricity prices to rise to about $51 per megawatt hour in 2026, an increase of approximately 8.5% from current levels [5] Software and Regulatory Pressures - Control over mining firmware and pool software represents a vulnerability, as it allows external parties to apply pressure on mining operations [6] - Regulatory or corporate pressures can target software stacks, enabling actions like KYC enforcement, payout freezes, and template censorship without altering Bitcoin's main protocol [7]